I checked the 3 month map at NOAA and the little brown spot had grown to a red spot (+4 to +5F) for three months, now that’s an ANOMALY!.

See:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2009/jun/Last3mTDeptUS.png

Now notice the HOT SPOT in the SouthWest corner of Utah. The red circle(+3 to +4F) with a brown (+4 to +5F) center.

What could CAUSE such an anomaly you wonder?

A little googling locates the hot center as St George, UT.

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=st+george+utah&ie=UTF8&split=0&gl=us&ei=y5BcSpP8EuTcmQeBsO3dDQ&ll=37.09451,-113.592153&spn=0.004082,0.009624&t=h&z=17

And we find from Weather Underground that the weather station is conveniently located at the ASPHALT (BLACK) paved airport right next to the city.

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=84770

Then we look at GISS station data and see that since the 90s its been MUCH
hotter in St George, relative to the 40s, than in the US as a whole.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_station.py?id=425724870010&data_set=1&num_neighbors=1

Then we go to the St George City site and look at their demographics and we find:

Washington County is one of the fastest growing areas in Utah and the rest of the country. It currently ranks as the second fastest growing metropolitan area in the United States. It was ranked as the #1 fastest growing area and dubbed “Boomtown USA” in 2007 by Inc. Magazine. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, St. George, Utah was the #1 Metropolitan Statistical Area in the United States for population growth from 1990 to 2000.

http://www.stgeorgechamber.com/EcDev/demographic.overview.htm

Who would have guessed that the statistical HOT SPOT for the US in Apr to June of 09 would just happen to be the #1 MSA growth area for the US as well.

What are the chances of that being a coincidence????

To be fair, lets look at a near by station and see if this is just a
coincidence. If it is, then a near by station that isn’t growing like gang
busters should ALSO show this phenomenal heat wave for the last three months:

So back to NOAA, and lo and behold, there is a official climate station very
near St George. Its Cedar City, UT.

But the anomaly for Cedar City the Apr to June timeframe was only +0.5F

http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=slc

(use Monthly Climate data for Cedar City and average the monthly anomaly for Apr, May and June)

So the question is:

Do we really believe it was 4 to 5 degrees F above average for 3 months in St George, but just 60 miles away it was only +0.5F above average?

Well maybe if it suits your agenda.

Arthur

Indeed, this summer’s slightly below grade temps portend some cooler weather, er climate, ahead.

July 1983 here was on the order of 15 degrees above average.

This week saw NZ had coldest May ever, today Peru’s death toll since March’s early arrival of winter temps is 4 times average.

For central MN NOAA map is fine, but July will be much cooler. Our ave. high is to be 82 and we’ve reached that only a couple days.

However, it is drier still, this morning’s rain is the first beyond a sprinkle for the month. No thunder and lightning in July?

Paraphrasing Mantua on El Nino: ENSO and PDO must be in phase for a teleconnection to be efficacious. Therefore, PDO and AMO will prevail here.

REPLY: The oceans don’t cool off in a year, or even two. Massive heat sink there. It takes time, the oceans are the key. – Anthony
And it is probably just about to the point where it is worked off. That is the big reason that the shorter cycles with less downtime between them was able to build the heat level up. Since the oceans act like a stabilizer they need to cool before the rest can start to drop.

I was just thinking.

Don’t you wish NOAA would, too? ;)

P.S.

I think your musings are on target, but I don’t know how hard it would be to come up with those kinds of more meaningful comparisons.

I was thinking the same thing.

“CENTRAL PARK HAS NOT HIT 85 DEGREES IN THE MONTH OF JUNE THIS YEAR. THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS BACK IN 1916. THIS HAS ONLY OCCURRED 2 OTHER TIMES…1903 AND 1886.”

It has yet to hit 85 degrees in NYC and its already mid July. Looking at the 10 day forecast, they are predicting 87 for Thursday but then back into the low 80s and upper 70s. If we don’t hit 85 on Thursday, we are looking at both June and July with no 85 degree days.

But the NOAA maps says we are only slightly below normal, so just ignore your thermometer.

PS As somebody red-green color-blind, these maps are terrible. Why not just use red for hot and blue for cold in various shades with white being neutral and dump the yellows and green?

REPLY: The oceans don’t cool off in a year, or even two. Massive heat sink there. It takes time, the oceans are the key. – Anthony