Comments on: Ken Tapping: Still no sign of the next cycle

By: John G. Bell

John G. Bell — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 20:02:42 +0000

Sorry to top-post but today we have a cycle 23 sun speck on the disk. The solar flux stands at 68 with 8+ days of spotless sun. Not much sign of a cycle 24 yet.

Leif Svalgaard, If this goes on for another year, and that must seem unlikely, what would that tell us about cycle 24? At what point would you say we are seeing something new?

By: vukcevic

vukcevic — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 09:42:08 +0000

david alan (16:18:01) :
“That dark speck has not moved for 2 months.”

Dark spot at 10 o’clock is a dead pixel on CCD chip and hopefully will be eliminated during next burnout.

By: david alan

david alan — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 23:18:01 +0000

Leif Svaalgard ( 20:16:12 ) ‘there are no new and unexpected phenomena that show up.’ …… Well Mr. Svaalgard, I just can’t accept that. At least not yet. I encourage anyone with interest to observe an unexplained phenomena occuring now ,on or over, the face of our sun. Back on May 15, 2009 sunspot 1017 emerged and disappeared shortly there after. 2 months later , if you take a look at todays SOHO MDI (enlarged) images and study the location where ar11017 originated, you will see a defined dark speck. That dark speck has not moved for 2 months. Using http://www.spaceweather.com ‘s archived SOHO MDI images from the last 60 days , each image shows the same speck ! Now I’ve been waiting for any clarification as to the nature of its design. Could it be a MDI glitch ? Or an asteroid ? Or something else ? After 2 months of personal research, and still no clarification from any person or agency, I assume that either it truly is a solar phenomena or a unexplained reason not yet cited. Until some explanation is givin , I’m goin to go with solar phenomena. I’ve recently read hundreds of scientific articles dealing with solar activity and one regarding independent solar magnetic flux rings really jumped out at me. A terminological discription, that best suits my theory on this yet proven solar phenomena , is known as a ‘Serpents Head’. So while I wait for confirmation as to the nature of the speck (about the size of mars) on the suns surface, I am goin to assume that this grand minima has a lot more to offer than meets the eye. – David Alan -

By: gary gulrud

gary gulrud — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 04:11:30 +0000

“Jim, Carl passed away a couple of weeks ago”

Sorry to hear this. Carl predicted December 2008 as month of 24 minimum July 2007 and contributed expertly here at WUWT on a number of climate matters.

By: Paul Vaughan

Paul Vaughan — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 01:09:44 +0000

Correction:
http://www.sfu.ca/~plv/SunspotCyclePeriod.PNG

By: Paul Vaughan

Paul Vaughan — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 12:54:41 +0000

http://www.sfu.ca/~plv/SunspotCyclePeriodLR1.PNG

By: Leif Svalgaard

Leif Svalgaard — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 03:16:12 +0000

david alan (16:26:59) :
‘What would the sun look like ,bare, without sunspots?’
Like it does today, right now.
My colleagues and myself have assembled several lines of evidence that together suggest that the Sun at minimum resemble the Sun as a Grand Minimum, i.e. that there are no ‘new’ and unexpected phenomena that show up: http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2470

There are some 4000 comments to that thread [and its sequels], so some answers to further questions you might have could be buried in that mass.

By: david alan

david alan — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 23:26:59 +0000

Leif Svalgaard (07:59:44)
I count seven question marks. Which one is that one little question?’ Leif, Just the first question. ‘What would the sun look like ,bare, without sunspots?’ I know I raised many questions, my apologies. I do that. I’m just curious how the sun will look in a couple of years. Was it L&P (whom I respect) that suggested sunspot activity to cease altogether ? And then of course we got NASA stooges , (was it Hunt & Hill?) , blathering about ramped up solar jet streams , ready to kick off a firestorm of sunspots. If Livingston & Penn are right and let’s say NASA got it partly right, in six months or so or more, our sun might be the smoothest anyone has ever seen it. What I’m suggesting is this: Solar Electro-Magnetic Fields may be evolving in a way not before seen. With predictions about global cooling and jovian influences on our sun, I’m just curious what anomalies will form on the suns surface. I would like to see a few scientists with some mad skills render graphically their interpretations of solar events pertaining to a soon to be reached grand minima. – David Alan -

By: Ron de Haan

Ron de Haan — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 21:55:46 +0000

Yep, not much “ramping up” if you ask me.

As humanity is conned by virtual heat, the real world is confronted with real cold in the midst of summer in many places.
I know it’s only weather and it’s not the fault of the sun!

Are we still learning something or is it our oceans and a few burps caused by some of mother earth’s volcano’s?

Is it time to start with a clean sheet en try to explain what we observe.

By: rbateman

rbateman — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 20:21:27 +0000

What would the sun look like , now, with virtually no sunspots for a year or more?

Like it looks right now, only instead of two 60+ virtually spotless day runs in 2008-9, there would be one 365 day virtual spotless run.
Interrupted only by a few Tiny Tim Mirage Spot rabbits somebody pulled out of a hat of a million pores on the face of the sun.

By: tallbloke

tallbloke — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 16:36:07 +0000

david alan (03:59:43) :
How does the sun go quiet?
When the several spoons which stir the porridge all stir against each other, the bowl swings round off centre and nothing gets properly mixed.

By: Leif Svalgaard

Leif Svalgaard — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 14:59:44 +0000

david alan (03:59:43) :
That’s all. Just answer that one little question.
I count seven question marks. Which one is ‘that one little question’?

By: david alan

david alan — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 10:59:43 +0000

What would the Sun look like, bare of sunspots, for a year ? What records do we have for a spotless year ? In 1810, Galileo & Co. were peering through earth observed telescopes. 200 years ago ! The data which to observe the sun now is fantastic. Sattellites beam data back to earth and display a wide array of solar spectrums for eager scientists to foam at the mouth over. And what is the verdict ? We don’t have a clue. Spew names all you want. Livingston & Penn. Michael Mann. Timo Niroma (my favorite). David Hathaway. etc… Dead or alive, the scientific community desperately wants answers to ageless questions. I just want one answered. What would the sun look like , now, with virtually no sunspots for a year or more? How does the sun go quiet? Should it be significant? Many jobs are at stake over these questions and that is a shame. When the world leaders in science should come together, they drift farther and farther apart. The sun is made up of layers of different activities. On the surface, plasma boils. Above it , temperatures rise dramatically. below it , a layer of magnetic fields bounce around in a cavity above the suns convection zone. For most of the recent recorded history, we haven’t seen the sun display such low level of activity. What if it continues? What effect, if any, will that have on the suns many different layers of activity? The one layer that intrigues me the most is the magnetic field. From fewer or more evenly flowed perturbences below the magnetic field, how would that magnetic field react? Magnetic fields have energy and that energy has to go somewhere. If not vertically, what about horizontally. Recently, I started reading up on solar magnetic flux tubes. Facinating stuff. With these tubes flattening out and lengthening, a huge amount of energy must be flowing through it. Enough to perhaps flow in a opposite direction than the suns orbit ? That’s all. Just answer that one little question. – David Alan -

By: Jim Hughes

Jim Hughes — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 03:12:09 +0000

Tallbloke ( 13:06:45)

Jim, Carl passed away a couple of weeks ago, but the site is now under the care of Geoff Sharp. That is the Landscheidt document repository I referred to.

Last I heard Frau Landscheidt gave Theodor’s papers to a post grad student from Potsdam. I hope they turn up online sometime.

I like your take on my posting name. :-)

———-

TallnRich , Like it better ? :-)

Thanks. Maybe we’ll be able to see all of his work one day. Even the controversial stuff that he may have laid low with after gaining some proper recognition.

I heard about Carl and I send my condolences to his family and friends. We had a couple of minor exchanges over at eastern some time back but nothing lengthy. But I also was never aware of his interest about the planets and how they effect the solar cycle.

By: Magnus

Magnus — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 01:43:30 +0000

timbrom (13:40:25) : “As a direct descendant (possibly) of King Canute, can I just point out that he was demonstrating that he didn’t have the power to halt the tides. Entirely the opposite of the hubris that is frequently attributed to him.”

I’m sorry. I’m afraid I knew that. :I Sorry for a post with a picture used like if I was an AGW:er, or a tabloid, trying to reach highest effect no matter the truth. An immorality which may be the problem of our society?!

Waxman-TheSuperstitiousPeoplePeopleCanuteRuled bill. Decent pic:

http://etc.usf.edu/clipart/29500/29542/canute_29542_lg.gif

;)