Too late George, Clausius & Clapeyron did it over 150 years ago!

Phil. (21:41:22) :

I have a question for you. What is the physical mechanism that causes CO2 to warm the planet? “”"

It’s really very simple.

CO2 is a rare trace gas in the atmosphere; about one in 2597 air molecules is CO2, so on average it is about 13.75 molecular layers in 3-d space between one CO2 molecule and another one; so they aren’t even aware of the other’s presence.

The earth’s surface which is mostly water, is many hundreds of times denser than the atmosphere, and the solid ground portion is on average 5-6 times denser than the water; and both of those materials emit something like 390 W/m^2 at the global mean temperature of about +15 deg C (288 K).

At that temperature, the emitted radiation has a specral peak emittance at around 10.1 microns wavelength. CO2 has a resonance vibrational absorption band at around 14.8-15 microns or so. At the surface density and temperature it is about 13.5 to 16.5 microns radiation that can be absorbed by the CO2 moelcule. The excited CO2 molecule collides with ordinary atmospheric gases of N2 and O2, nad rarely Ar, and the energy from the aborbed IR photons is redistributed and warms the atmospheric gases. The warm atmosphere in turn then radiates its own IR spectrum, which is generally at a longer wavelength, since the air temperature is cooler than the surface (Wien Displacement Law). The re-radiated energy goes in every direction, so only about half goes downwards towards the ground; the rest goes upwards towards escape to space. Because of the temperature and pressure gradients in the atmosphere, it is easier for the upward radiation to escape, than it is for the downward radiation to reach the ground. Multiple re-absorptions and re-emissions take place, with the downward path being more obstructed by more CO2 than the upward path which has less CO2.
So the portion of the downward IR re-emission that reaches the ground or ocean gets re-absorbed in the surface which replaces some of the lost energy, so the ground doesn’t cool as fast, which is akin to saying it stays warmer. In the case of the water surface, that surface IR absorption can cause prompt evaporation of water vapor into the atmosphere; which removes ahuge amount of additional thermal energy from the surface; around 545 calories per gram of water evaporated.

But CO2 is not like other gases; it is magic; and the sort of atmospheric warming that only CO2 can do, has the unique property of being able to wake up all the water vapor that is present in the atmosphere; about 25 water molecules for every CO2 molecule is typical. By themselves, water molecules which are also a green house gas, simply remain asleep and don’t do anything, until that magic moment when they are awakened by the CO2 molecule, and they immediately also start to absorb infra red radiation from the surface to add to the warming that the CO2 caused.

Now water vapor can absorb much more infrared energy than CO2 can; but only after being woken up by the CO2 molecule. That process is called “feedback”. So it is actually the water vapor that is the green house gas that causes global warming climate change; but only after it gets the go ahead from the wake up call from the CO2 molecule.

Not even Steven Hawking himslef has been able to explain why water vapor cannot warm the atmosphere by itself without the CO2 wake-up. Totally weird, that initial atmospheric warming by the ever present water molecules at around 25 times the abundance of CO2, is unable by itslef to warm the surface and do the whole job that it is able to do after being woken up.

That’s about the size of it; you could probably get yourself a Nobel Prize in Physics, if you can explain how CO2 wakes up water vapor and gets it to absorb Infrared, and warm up the atmosphere, and surface. Good luck

George

I have a question for you. What is the physical mechanism that causes CO2 to warm the planet?

In the ocean, GISS uses satellite data, being in agreement with MSU, of course.

http://tinyurl.com/lvqjzj

Thanks. So if we need to wait 20 years to make sure we’re not seeing a natural variation, why are we now hearing it stated with confidence that things are much worse now than we thought even two years ago when the IPCC report came out?

Is it that 10 year trend in arctic ice or that 15 year trend in hurricane damage?

I asked the teachers (many of them middle-aged) if they had noticed global warming or climate change in their areas. They were unanimous: “Not at all”. They also felt that people in their areas had MUCH bigger problems to worry about.

In the case of the SoPolar those ‘last few degrees’ are 15º, using data from 70ºS to 85ºS as UAH do is very dubious, likewise for Greenland and North of 82.5ºN.

It is very easy to talk past each other on this without defining terms. The The MSU technology is not useful for the last few degrees of latitude, but there is Arctic and Antarctic beyond these degrees. UAH shows a decadal trend of .44 for NoPolar and -.08 for SoPolar.

Why is GISS higher since 2000? Look at a map of GISS for trends since 2000 with 1200km smoothing. This shows a large hot spot over the Arctic, which contributes to a warming trend.

Now create a trend map with 250km smoothing. The hot spot is largely absent, as most of it is extrpolated from stations around the edge of the Arctic. HADCRUT does not extrapolate. The satellites measurements have a hole in the Arctic as well due to their orbit. So the HADCRUT, UAH and RSS view are closer to the map with the 250km smoothing, which is missing a lot of this hot spot.

Maps of GISS trends can be created at http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/

I canot show this trend accelerating since 1980, so obviously this acceleration must be smaller than the fluctuations due to noise/natrual variation etc.

If you could show me that the largest possible fluctuations due to noise/natural variation must be smaller than the acceleration expected due to CO2 since 1980 I would have consider this lack of acceleration evidence against CO2 warming at the rate predicted by IPCC.

Hansens stated estimate in 1981 was that natural variations and fluctuations could be strong enough to totally cancel out all CO2 warming for periods of up to 20 years.

“NASA scientists have found that cirrus clouds, formed by contrails from aircraft engine exhaust, are capable of increasing average surface temperatures enough to account for a warming trend in the US that occurred between 1975 and 1994 …..”

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=4435

Is the contrail effect still relevant in accessing warming trends or has that work at NASA been discredited?

Trends since 1980 in degrees per decade :

GISS: 0.159
HADCRUT: 0.159
RSS: 0.157
UAH: 0.128

Thanks. Now show us how the trends are accelerating.

Hmmm….that might be tough.

Trends since Jan 2000

GISS: 0.102
HADCRUT: .0007
RSS: 0.0002
UAH: 0.0028

(What is it with those GISS guys, anyway?

I have been totally suspicious of the surface “measured” results for a long time; simply on the grounds that as far as spacial sampling goes, GISS doesn’t even come close to satisfying the Nyquist sampling theorem requirements. On top of that, the reporting of min/max temperatures daily for the land based sites also fails to conform to the needs of a proper sampling of a 24 hour function that is not time symmetric; and of course totally ignores the effect of cloud transients. The planet earth of course correctly integrates all of those frequency components, both temporal and spatial. The satellite based measurements should inherently have better sampling regimens.

The notion that a “temperature anomaly” can be legitimately used to represent points spaced as much as 1200 km apart seems to me to be totally ludicrous. The whole UHI situation indicates how silly that is.

I don’t see any point in making computer gridded models that work on a regular “grid” of 75 km or so; when no such real world grid exists for making actual data measurements to compare to the predictions of such a model.

Anyway, I await the development of this theme, that you are pursuing here.

George

GISS: 0.159
HADCRUT: 0.159
RSS: 0.157
UAH: 0.128

NOAA will probably use that to say they were right after record highs coming and send someone to gloat in the face of people who think the Earth is cooling, maybe they think Cap and Trade will have unprecendented support because of that. O.o

Well the first two of them are regions where the MSU technique can’t be properly used, which is why RSS don’t measure there.

It just happens to be the opposite sign. Lol.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:1997.5/plot/uah/from:1997.5/trend/plot/rss/from:1997.5/plot/rss/from:1997.5/trend/plot/gistemp/from:1997.5/plot/gistemp/from:1997.5/trend/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1997.5/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1997.5/trend