Comments on: Interesting times at the “North Pole”

By: AndyW35

AndyW35 — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 05:37:35 +0000

Phil, I see what you mean, yes that would be a good explanation.

Regards

Andy

By: the_Butcher

the_Butcher — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 05:14:24 +0000

Where Iive in Southern Europe the weather is cloudy and rainy which has never happened before around this month from what I remember since a little boy. It feels like it’s late September already…

By: Phil.

Phil. — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 22:34:26 +0000

AndyW35 (22:57:46) :
Phil, if you look at the northpole images from 21st June you can see a shadow across the ice, so indicating it is a large scale feature and not something on the lens. Perhaps this pressure ridge is what caused to it go FUBAR for a while.

It’s not on the lens but is attached to the camera support, judging by the size of the ice crystals it’s within a foot of the lens. The shadow is from the camera support I expect.

By: Symon

Symon — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 18:01:47 +0000

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/npole/2009/images/tmp/noaa1-2009-0622-055606.jpg.tmp

Looks like the webcam is still working.

BTW, you can see all the pictures from http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/npole/

HTH., Symon.

By: bill

bill — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 14:42:37 +0000

Anthony as you keep suggesting that Catlin were going to polute the Arctic with their fuel cache, I am sure you will be relieved to read this from their web site:

From the Ice
Logistically, all the loose ends of the expedition have now been tied up.

On the 5th June, Kenn Borek Air scooped up the remaining fuel drums from our fuel cache on the Arctic Ocean, before returning to the base at Resolute.

Today all the freight arrived back at the Ops Room here in London. The laborious task of putting it into some sort of order begins. Some of the kit (sledges, clothing, drills etc) will be used for display purposes, some will be binned and some will be stored for any future projects

REPLY: Good for them and thanks for the note – Anthony

By: AndyW35

AndyW35 — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 05:57:46 +0000

Phil, if you look at the northpole images from 21st June you can see a shadow across the ice, so indicating it is a large scale feature and not something on the lens. Perhaps this pressure ridge is what caused to it go FUBAR for a while.

Regards

Andy

By: David Ball

David Ball — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 05:24:07 +0000

Flanagan, after 30 years of watching my fathers position get brutally marginalized through media manipulation ( watch the CBC’s Fifth Estate about “the deniers” as one example) and you might understand that the chip on my shoulder is as big as it is. My father and I are very different. He is educated in the extreme, patient and thoughtful. I, on the other hand, wasted my youth drinking and fighting in some of the toughest bars in Canada. I am quick to temper and can still hold my own in a confrontation, and quite enjoy doing so. I am not educated, but I still comprehend a great deal of the discussions on this site and others, and I know BS when it rears it’s ugly head. Don’t get me wrong, I am glad that Anthony allows differing views to be posted, for that is the “joie de vivre” of this site. It is time that the realists had a voice in every form of media. If you believe strongly that your view is the correct one, then our view should not be a threat. Skeptics are not allowed to post on RC, and sites like it. Very telling. We are entitled to equal time. When someone is shouted down, it does not mean they are wrong. I enjoyed reading your back and forth with Pamela Gray, very enlightening and constructive. That sort of discourse will bring Anthony another “science blog of the year” award. Try to put yourself in my shoes and maybe you can understand my reaction a little better. Nothing personal and no hard feelings.

By: norah4you

norah4you — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 04:54:18 +0000

One of the most important factors to be discussed isn’t the daily maximum temperatures, but the difference between minimum and maximum temperature measured at a station during the day. Please observe that I am not refering to median temperature since what needs to be done in order to have any readings up to scientific level to hold information on how many hours it’s below freezing point and how many hours it’s over.

Also bear in mind that wind make the ‘real’ temperature lower when we talk about temperatures below + 4 Celsius degrees. Which of course all that have had to use salt of any kind to keep larger areas icefree in non Arctic regions are aware of.

As for the icedrift, the changed GPS position of this and other stations are exactly what they should be had the normal centrifugal power been taken into consideration together with the fact that our Earth isn’t a real globe but due to centrifugaleffects are more ‘flat’ around the poles.

By: Dan Evens

Dan Evens — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 00:09:32 +0000

It’s kind of neat that this weather station resembles a probe sent to another planet. It can’t expect any maintenance work if it gets in trouble. It has to rely on sending data back through a sattelite. It’s expected to have a finite life span then die due to local conditions. It’s really very much like sending a probe to Mars, except here it’s ice instead of dust and grit that can block our view. Very interesting.

By: Shawn Whelan

Shawn Whelan — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 23:01:43 +0000

Pamela,

The Canadian ice Service was quite political with this last year declaring the NW Passage open when it wasn’t and they were caught on that one. If my memory serves me they declared the northern route open when only an Ice Breaker could pass through and then tried to fudge their way out of it.

CIS is not quite lilly white. They like a little AGW politics with their ice.

With the extent of cold in Northern Canada last year and the quick freeze in the Arctic and the continueing cold I expect the Arctic to have a greater extent at the minimum than in 2008. In the 40′s when the PDO changed to the cool cycle the Arctic rapidly realized an increase in ice and it was the end of easy summer travel for the Hudson Bay Company to stock it’s outposts. Some outposts were closed down due to the increased amounts of ice in the late ’40′s. expect history to repeat. Really no need for all the fancy scientific stuff.

By: Pamela Gray

Pamela Gray — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 21:13:40 +0000

Flanagan, I am waiting for your thoughts on ice predictions given the above posts and links I provided. Those that spend their time telling ships what to expect (and they had better be right because if not, lives are at stake) are indicating normal melt and no NW passage. What say you to their predictions? Are you sticking with an arbitrary linear trend that is only an artifact of the data, or are you willing to go with the expert opinions of real data?

By: Flanagan

Flanagan — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 20:53:11 +0000

Hi Pamela,

yes this is based on a linear extrapolation of the 2000s from the cryosphere. Linear trends is possible even for nonlinear behaviors if the period is short enough – at least this is what Taylor thought. Could you place a figure on the 2 sigmas prediction, because it all depends on the dataset you’re using? Thanks.

By: Adam from Kansas

Adam from Kansas — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 19:38:02 +0000

Okay, here’s the big NOAA page with all the ENSO data
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

Whether or not an El Nino forms, look at all the data and see for yourself where it could be headed, who knows how this will affect things like Sea Ice, or whether it’s already starting to affect Summer temperatures, it also doesn’t quite look it’ll get even near 1998 levels and it may not even get to 2006 levels.

By: Pamela Gray

Pamela Gray — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 19:28:46 +0000

Phil, good point, but it serves to remind us that fewer data points must be handled with a broader perspective on what is and is not significant. I would never use 1standard deviation with fewer data points.

By: Pamela Gray

Pamela Gray — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 19:25:16 +0000

This is a well-researched and sound prediction.

http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/ARCTIC001/20090603000000_ARCTIC001_0004399792.pdf