Scientific Jargon – “Would” “Will” “Could” “Might” “Maybe”

15 05 2009
Guest post by Steven Goddard
http://gothamist.com/attachments/jake/2006_1_bigwave1.jpg
The BBC has perfected the use of weasel words to create alarm.  They have a lead story today :

The collapse of a major polar ice sheet will not raise global sea levels as much as previous projections suggest, a team of scientists has calculated.

Writing in Science, the researchers said that the demise of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) would result in a sea level rise of 3.3m (10 ft).

Read the rest of this entry »





Audio from the NOAA/SWPC press teleconference

15 05 2009

Well, it took me a week to get it, and finally here it is. Last Friday, May 9th as you may recall NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center had a teleconference which I was not invited to listen in on. But, Doug Biesecker kindly provided the audio.

This press teleconference coincided with SWPC’s announcement of going with the lower Solar cycle 24 prediction curve. Read the rest of this entry »





Uh, oh. 50 year old ocean thermohaline model sinking fast, climate models may be disrupted

15 05 2009

Another “observations are not models” story is emerging. For more on the status quo of thermohaline circulation, see this Wiki  article – Anthony

Deep Ocean Conveyor Belt Reconsidered

thermohaline_circulation_2x

Science Daily is reporting that just because they teach you something in graduate school doesn’t make it right. A 50 year old model of global thermohaline circulation that predicts a deep Atlantic counter current below the Gulf Stream is now formally called into question by an armada of subsurface RAFOS floats drifting 700 – 1500m deep. Nearly 80% of the RAFOS floats escaped the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC), drifting into the open ocean.

This confirms suspicions that have been around since the 1990’s, and likely plays havoc with global models of climate change. The findings by Drs. Amy Bower of Wood’s Hole and Susan Lozier of Duke University et al. are published in a forthcoming issue of Nature. Read the rest of this entry »





Natural petroleum seeps release equivalent of eight to 80 Exxon Valdez oil spills

15 05 2009

Public release date: 13-May-2009 (from EurekAlert)

Contact: Stephanie Murphy
media@whoi.edu
508-289-3340
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Natural petroleum seeps release equivalent of eight to 80 Exxon Valdez oil spills

Study off Santa Barbara is first to quantify oil in sediments

Bubble of oil oozing from the ocean floor. (Credit: David Valentine)

Bubble of oil oozing from the ocean floor. (Credit: David Valentine)

A new study by researchers at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) and the University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB) is the first to quantify the amount of oil residue in seafloor sediments that result from natural petroleum seeps off Santa Barbara, California.

The new study shows the oil content of sediments is highest closest to the seeps and tails off with distance, creating an oil fallout shadow. It estimates the amount of oil in the sediments down current from the seeps to be the equivalent of approximately 8-80 Exxon Valdez oil spills.

The paper is being published in the May 15 issue of Environmental Science & Technology. Read the rest of this entry »