Comments on: Catlin Arctic Ice Survey Packing It Up – What Have They Accomplished?

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By: Erick

Erick — Fri, 15 May 2009 13:05:23 +0000

I found an error in the Caitlin Raw data series…

If you look at the Ice thickness measurements for March 7th you will notice they typed in 520+ that buggered up the formula in reporting the average thickness for the day. This results in a 10CM difference in the average thickness measurement they are reporting publicly. So much for due diligence!

By: Steven Reilly

Steven Reilly — Fri, 15 May 2009 05:29:05 +0000

Caitlin story about how thin the ice was despite all the cold

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/globalwarming/5321067/Pen-Hadow-climate-change-trek-finds-thin-ice.html

By: JamesMT

JamesMT — Fri, 15 May 2009 04:21:14 +0000

From the AP today, May 14, 2009, …
http://tinyurl.com/o425jq
-
‘British explorers in northern Canada to measure the thickness of floating Arctic sea ice ended their expedition short of reaching the North Pole due to an early summer ice melt, the team said Thursday.’
…
‘”This year, the summer melt came a little early,” Hadow said during a Webcast conference from Resolute Bay in northern Canada. “We would have rather reached the Pole if we could have, but we’ve always regarded (getting there) as the cherry on the cake.”‘
…

By: bill

bill — Thu, 14 May 2009 22:33:01 +0000

Steve Goddard (12:13:13) :
Ice thickness normally increases until mid-May, and then it declines through the summer as more solar radiation is received and air temperatures are warmer.
Thermal diffusivity of ice is temp dependant
1.1@0C and 1.7@-50c*10-6m^2s^-1
taking the lowest figure gives a temperature propagation of 27cm in 1 day so the bottom of a 3 metre thick ice block should see the surface temperature in about 10days assuming the bottom is free to change (it isn’t of course its maintained at -2C by the sea)

So the buoy data is reasonably accurate as far as my calculation goes, for the thicknesses seen (a couple of days a one temperature is not unusual).

By: Jerry

Jerry — Thu, 14 May 2009 21:45:11 +0000

Having spent several years working in the Arctic I can guarantee you that taking a snow depth measurement there is a complete waste of time. The Arctic is actually a semi-arid area by the definition of that term vis-a-vis precipitation amounts annually. The stuff that does get deposited gets moved around continually in whichever direction the wind happens to be blowing. And it’s always blowing from somewhere. It’s also very harsh and cold and not a good place to venture with foolish notions.

By: Peter Melia

Peter Melia — Thu, 14 May 2009 21:41:09 +0000

In todays (14th May) Daily Telegraph the Catlin Arctic Ice Survey is presented as a success, even though the extreme low temperatures are mentioned.
Shape of things to come?

By: Mitchel44

Mitchel44 — Thu, 14 May 2009 20:03:44 +0000

Is it just me, or does Pen Hadow making the front page at wiki seem rather “timely”, given the end of his recent journey?

“British Arctic explorer Pen Hadow” is down in the “Did You Know” section.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page

By: Steve Goddard

Steve Goddard — Thu, 14 May 2009 19:13:13 +0000

bill,

You are making all kinds of assumptions about many different factors being at some sort of equilibrium, without any basis. The air temperature changes throughout the year in the Arctic. Ice thickness normally increases until mid-May, and then it declines through the summer as more solar radiation is received and air temperatures are warmer.

By: Richard M

Richard M — Thu, 14 May 2009 14:23:33 +0000

It would be an interesting piece of work for someone to gather all the Caitlin articles into a single essay along with some of the significant comments. I believe it would make an interesting book on just how the truth has been manipulated.

By: Leon Brozyna

Leon Brozyna — Thu, 14 May 2009 04:20:30 +0000

Now that the comedy of errors has thankfully ended, let us recap:

73 days on ice rather than the planned 100 days.
434 km of a planned 1,000 km trip – didn’t even get halfway.

And even worse – they’re still spinning (lying) that the ice is thinner than expected and that they were surprised at how much first year ice they encountered. Well hello – except for a short stretch of older ice, most of the route they took was over first year ice. Just check the map overlay created in this previous post:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/16/busted-catlin-arctic-ice-survey-didnt-expect-to-find-first-year-ice/

Notice that the midpoint in their route – where they ended this junket – is a large expanse of a mix of first and what looks like second year ice. The cycnic in me thinks that they probably drilled for samples in the easier to drill first year ice. Now they’re loaded up for this year’s propaganda battle in a run up to Copenhagen.

Lest they forget – before then comes the melt max in September and that’s one event that’s bound to disappoint as the sea ice continues its slow recovery with levels higher again than last year’s increase.

By: Ric Werme

Ric Werme — Thu, 14 May 2009 04:11:58 +0000

I mentioned this AM (05:22:10) that I suspected that ABC’s Nightline might have a story about the Catlin Survey, and they did. It was pretty much what I expected, a one-sided pro-Catlin review and no mention of that German survey with an instrument towed by an airplane.

Readers here will learn nothing from watching the program.

By: bill

bill — Thu, 14 May 2009 04:11:40 +0000

Steve Goddard (11:00:55) :
The laws of thermodynamics are not “gibberish,” but you have at least identified an external heat source.
Now justify bill’s comment:
Currently Catlin are seeing air temperatures of -8C . If this is maintained then it will support an ice thickness of only 57 cm (assuming -8C is the ice not air temp.)

The reference I gave describes the reason why the whole depth does not freeze and by the whole ice does not melt: It down to the halocline.
http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=PGGMCHTjADEC&pg=PA51&lpg=PA51&dq=seawater+freeze+halocline&source=bl&ots=eOJM4t9rS8&sig=jy-9cqO7Kuh4sHAdlOgTjLjHD8U&hl=en&ei=tAgKSubHKKOsjAeIwvmPCw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=2#PPA51,M1

The water ice interface must be in equilibrium – ice is melting and forming at the same rate. Increase the thermal conduction of ice and the thiscness will vary untill the bottom of the ice is at the equilibrium temp. Decrease the top ice temp and the thickness will increase to maintain the temperature at the interface.

Using the plots for various dates on the Buoy 2006C gives these approx results
-23C 200cm
-18C 170cm
-16C 155cm
-11C 100cm
-4C 30cm

(cannot access the data any more – the new web site seem not to work. so cannot check other buoys)

A linear curve fit to this gives an equation of thickness = -9.2161*[temp] – 1.7113
R² = 0.986
at -40C a thickness would be 3.7metres
at -8C a thickness of 72 cm

By: H.R.

H.R. — Thu, 14 May 2009 00:57:44 +0000

TonyB wrote in part:

“[…} So WUWT could become a sort of international rescue for failed green expeditions to cold and hostile environments

We could call the service;

‘I can’t believe its not hotter.’”

On the logo, I’d want Skippy the ‘roo, in the snow, holding an upside down hockey stick to deliver your tag line.

By: Bill Jamison

Bill Jamison — Thu, 14 May 2009 00:24:48 +0000

‘Gruelling’ Arctic mission ends
Their data will help study the impacts of global warming in the region.

It also reinforces a new forecast, by a leading UK scientist, who says that the Arctic sea-ice could vanish in summertime far sooner than predicted.

The Catlin survey ended slightly ahead of schedule to ensure a safe pick up.

as predicted right here on WUWT, they are claiming they expected to find thicker multiyear ice instead of thinner first year ice:

Our science advisors had told us to expect thicker, older ice on at least part of the route, so it is something of a mystery where that older ice has gone. It’ll be interesting to see what scientists think about this.”

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8047862.stm

I guess none of us that read WUWT regularly should be surprised by this “news”.