Is Climate Change the “Defining Challenge of Our Age”? Part 3 of 3

30 04 2009

Part III: Where does global warming rank among future risks to environmental health?

challenges_of_civilization

Guest essay by Indur M. Goklany

NOTE: Entire 3 part series is now available as a PDF here

In Part 1 of this series we saw that even if one gives credence to the oft-repeated but flawed estimates from the World Health Organization of the present-day contribution of climate change to global mortality, other factors contribute many times more to the global death toll. For example, hunger’s contribution is over twenty times larger, unsafe water’s is ten times greater, and malaria’s is six times larger. With respect to ecological factors, habitat conversion continues to be the single largest demonstrated threat to species and biodiversity. Thus climate change is not the most important problem facing today’s population.

In Part 2 we saw that even if we assume that the world follows the IPCC’s warmest (A1FI) scenario that the UK’s Hadley Center projects will increase average global temperature by 4°C between 1990 and 2085, climate change will at most contribute no more than 10% of the cumulative death toll from hunger, malaria and flooding into the foreseeable future. It would simultaneously reduce the net population at risk of water stress.

Clearly, climate change would, through the foreseeable future, be a bit-player with respect to human well-being.

Here I will examine whether climate change is likely to be the most important global ecological problem in the foreseeable future. Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 65 Comments »

Categories : climate_change, economy-health

April – another record month at WUWT

30 04 2009

The hits just keep on coming. 1,672,437 page views this month, up from 1,478,801 page views in March.

wuwt_stats_april09-510

After posting last months stats, there was some discontent by some angry and somewhat incredulous bloggers that it might be an April Fools joke of some sorts. Sorry, no such luck.

But what was humorous, was one particular blogger (Joe Romm) who said:

It is absurd to publish one’s page views to 7 significant digits without caveats — even 2 is stretching it.

I got a huge chuckle out of that. So just to show that the stats are indeed real, and accurate down to that 7th digit (since they come from the WordPress internal traffic counter), I’m expanding this month’s report. Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 142 Comments »

Categories : Announcements

See speck run

30 04 2009

Another anemic solar cycle 23 sunspeck, could 19th century astronomers have seen it?

From Spaceweather.com

soho_mdi_043009

SUNSPOT 1016: A ring-shaped sunspot numbered 1016 has emerged near the sun’s equator. Its magnetic polarity identifies it as a member of old Solar Cycle 23. Until these old cycle sunspots go away, the next solar cycle will remain in abeyance.


Comments : 233 Comments »

Categories : solar

The Met Office UK summer forecast – Mad Dogs and Englishmen

30 04 2009

Guest Post by Steven Goddard


The Third Little Show

Mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun The Japanese don’t care to, the Chinese wouldn’t dare to Hindus and Argentines sleep firmly from twelve till one But Englishmen detest-a siesta
- Noel Coward – 1931

Persistence is the British trait which kept the Shackleton crew alive and helped England withstand the Nazi’s throughout World War II.  It keeps the Catlin Crew going and kept Lewis Pugh relentlessly paddling his kayak over Arctic Ice towards the pole.   And it is the same trait which keeps the UK Met Office forecasting warm summers year after year.  The Met Office forecast 2007 to be the warmest year ever globally, and a hot summer in the UK. Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 186 Comments »

Categories : forecasting, weather

Watch the Wilkins ice shelf collapse in time lapse animation – looks like ‘current’ events to me

30 04 2009

Previously on WUWT we discussed the media’s fascination with “melt” when it comes to ice shelves cracking off. Then there’s also this picture that keeps getting recycled.


http://www.ogleearth.com/wissm.jpg

It is clear from the photo above that we see a stress crack, not a melt. Now we have a time lapse satellite photo series of the Wilkins ice shelf that shows the process of currents and winds causing those stresses.

Mike McMillan writes:

Fox News is reporting that the Wilkins ice shelf bridge that’s been eroding has finally collapsed.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,518374,00.html

I went back to the old ESA sat photos and noticed something interesting.  I downloaded the gif animation and did some highlighting. Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 96 Comments »

Categories : Antarctic, sea ice

Zogby poll: only 30% of Americans support cap and trade

30 04 2009

The Zogby poll results mirrors the recent Gallup poll It’s the economy, stupid. Even so, with opinion on Cap and trade in the minority it seems plans are in place to move forward.

On Earth Day, Secretary Chu warmly embraced the administration’s cap-and-trade proposal, stating, “We must state in no uncertain terms we have a responsibility to our children to curb emissions from fossil fuels…”

Q. President Obama wants to impose cap-and-trade laws that would limit the total carbon dioxide emissions allowed to be released into the environment. These laws would turn carbon dioxide into a commodity allowing those that pollute less to sell credits to those that pollute more. These credits would be traded on commodities markets. According to congressional testimony given by the Director of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, “decreasing emissions would also impose costs on the economy – much of those costs will be passed along to consumers in the form of higher prices for energy and energy intensive goods.” Some have estimated these costs to be $800 to $1300 more per household by 2015. Knowing this, do you support or oppose cap-and-trade laws?

Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 79 Comments »

Categories : politics