Is Climate Change the “Defining Challenge of Our Age”? Part 2 of 3

29 04 2009

Part II: Where does global warming rank among future risks to public health?

challenges_of_civilization

Guest essay by Indur M. Goklany

In Part 1, we saw that at present climate change is responsible for less than 0.3% of the global death toll. At least 12 other factors related to food, nutrition and the environment contribute more. All this, despite using the World Health Organization’s scientifically suspect estimates of the present-day death toll “attributable” to climate change,

Here I will examine whether climate change is likely to be the most important global public health problem if not today, at least in the foreseeable future.

This examination draws upon results generated by researchers who are prominent contributors to the IPCC consensus view of climate change.  I do this despite the tendency of their analyses to overstate the net negative impacts of climate change as detailed, for instance, here, here and here. Read the rest of this entry »





What Is Normal Arctic Ice Extent?

29 04 2009

Guest post by Steven Goddard

I have been noticing in recent weeks that NSIDC extent is much closer to their 1979-2000 mean than NANSEN is to their 1979-2007 mean.  This is counter-intuitive, because the NANSEN mean should be relatively lower than NSIDC – as NANSEN’s mean includes the low extent years of the 2001-2007 period.  Those low years should have the effect of lowering the mean, and as a result I would expect the NANSEN current extent to be equal to or above the 1979-2007 mean.

(For exclusive subsets A and, B where subset A has a mean value of 14 and subset B has a mean value less than 14, then the mean of the full set AB must also be less than 14.)
http://eva.nersc.no/vhost/arctic-roos.org/doc/observations/images/ssmi1_ice_ext.png




New Australian continent wide low temperature record set for April

29 04 2009

Minus 13 degrees – the coldest it’s been in April

From Weatherzone – Brett Dutschke,

Wednesday April 29, 2009 – 14:58 EST

File:Charlotte Pass 2008.jpg

Charlotte Pass, 1,837m, Snowy Mountains of New South Wales, Australia

A new Australian record was set early this morning, a temperature of minus 13 degrees, at Charlotte Pass on the Snowy Mountains.

This is the lowest temperature recorded anywhere in Australia in April and is 13 below the average. Nearby at Perisher it dipped to minus 11 degrees and at the top of Thredbo it dipped to minus 10. Read the rest of this entry »