And the Total distance travelled is changing, how can that be?
Waiting for the resupply and travelling?

To paraphrase Galileo “E pur si muove” in this case it’s the ice that’s moving inexorably E.

“There is a point where physical decline hits an inflection point and mental capacity follows. I would not be surprised to see them die out there.”

If their mental capacity drops, bearing in mind how shambolic the whole thing has been from the start, we must be getting into negative territory!

Have a look–try to be unbiased in what you’ll be seeing :

http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic

It’s ok to say 2009 is far behind 2008. And with all the extra cold we’ve been getting, the unexpected thickness of the ice,and with the sun still being so quiet, it will take a miracle for 2009 to surpass 2008. But who knows, maybe these flows Phil is talking about will carry that huge difference away, maybe that’s the miracle alarmists will be looking for…. ;)

What a lood of absolute tosh you write!

1. Have you thought that AMSRE from ijis may be on the new algorithm which will not jump at the beginning of june?
2. The variation in year to year variations from now until mid june are small.
and after mid june then the area STARTS to show the eventual minimum.
This is obvious from the AMSRE plots.

NB. I am making no prediction just stating that to make a prediction at this time is premature!!

Vinny (07:43:20) :
from APB:
“What is the sensible thing for them to do …?”
So far, I haven’t seen anything sensible out of this crew. Their methodologies are junk science at best, and their strategy sounds like something out of a sixth-grade science fair project.

Junk science – why? They seem to be using professional manual thickness measuring kit. They seem to be measuring close to ice ridges. They are making multiple measurements at different locations. Using this method I would assume an accuracy of much better than 10cm. This should be compared to the German plane giving proven inaccuracies of up to 1metre in 3metres and more generally 25cm.

Also what is their strategy for their science please as I have not seen it written down?

Thanks for that & makes sense!

AtB

Keep that gun handy Pen. You do have a gun?

Have you seen the graphs lately? Good luck with those hopes you have. You definitely need it.

JAXA
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

DMi
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

ROOS
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic

“The Ice team have found a suitable runway (350m long x 100m wide x 100cm thick) and have spent the day preparing it in advance of the plane’s arrival later today.”

And the Total distance travelled is changing, how can that be?
Waiting for the resupply and travelling?

Are you telling me that 2009 melt will surpass 2008 melt? Also, do you think Arctic ice is in a ‘death spiral’?

I don’t see why that conclusion is drawn from my pointing out that last year there was 7m thick ice in one of the survey regions last March?

Given the strong outflow of MY ice through the Fram this year I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the 2009 melt comparable with the 2008 melt and maybe surpass it.

Good Michael Caine impression. ;-)

It wasn’t a real bear though it was a mythological one, Zeus up to his tricks with the ladies again!

Phil,

Are you telling me that 2009 melt will surpass 2008 melt? Also, do you think Arctic ice is in a ‘death spiral’?

“What is the sensible thing for them to do …?”

So far, I haven’t seen anything sensible out of this crew. Their methodologies are junk science at best, and their strategy sounds like something out of a sixth-grade science fair project.

I agree, but maybe they insisted on using the paper from AL Gore’s science test. Those “D’s” can come in handy.

If it is all real though (and, incredibly, it probably is), and if they can survive what is coming next, they will have weeks of solid ice on which to land a rescue or resupply plane. I hope they make it. If they know what they are doing they should be OK. But I would hate to be there myself: freezing half to death, ill-advised and misinformed, with that horrid feeling that one might have made a big mistake.