http://foro.meteored.com/dlattach.html;topic=88339.0;attach=119414;image

http://foro.meteored.com/dlattach.html;topic=65613.0;attach=134308;image

Engineers vs. Scientists :-)

Leif Svalgaard (15:08:56) :

Jeff at UCLA (13:39:01) :
Maybe the error plays out more in popular demonstrations of climate “science”,
possibly, and also the confusion between Fahrenheit and Celsius. Scientists do not get confused by the C versus K.

NASA engineers have been known to confuse inches and centimeters!

And also what I was doing. The red curve in:
http://www.leif.org/research/Sea-Level-Change.png
is as the plot says: “change per year” or dGMSL(mm)/dt. To calculate the latter I first compute a running 1-yr mean of monthly values of GMSL, then I differentiate that curve with a dt = 1 year.

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Leif,

I apologize for my dreadful English, I “applied” for apply, instead of plot.
Our plots are not different:

TSI. We use very similar reconstructions.

http://foro.meteored.com/dlattach.html;topic=79069.0;attach=134120;image

GMSL: We use same data and obtain same plot:

http://www.leif.org/research/Sea-Level-Change.png

http://foro.meteored.com/dlattach.html;topic=65613.0;attach=134225;image

The difference is that I also plot dGMSL(mm)/dt p yr and TSI:

http://foro.meteored.com/dlattach.html;topic=79069.0;attach=134194;image

And that is what Shaviv is doing. As I said, there is no correlation before 1940, and we must wait to see any in cycle 23; this year should be a decrease in dGMSL/dt.

A light touche about ‘true believer’. Nonetheless, you have changed my beliefs. However, particularly with Tsonis’s recent work, the idea of an occasional, even somewhat random ‘light touch’ from the sun acting against the coupled pendulums of the oceanic oscillations might well be the manner by which the sun effects the climate. And it could surely be a signal difficult to discern.
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The ‘chaos’ of the sun could still drive the ‘chaos’ on earth.
I’m not into the ‘could’, but true believers can take comfort in anything.

I’ve got to explore the dimensions of the possible before I can ponder a mechanism. Is it possible for a Complex System with Non-Linear Interactions to have an external driver? You’ve clearly made the points that an external driver is not necessary for a CSWNLI, and that you don’t know of one for the PDO or the earth’s climate, but do the characteristics of a CSWNLI rule out an external driver. I don’t think so, but my thinking is not informed by much knowledge.

Also, if one is possible, and it seems difficult to link any cycling phenomenon of the sun as an external driver to cycling systems on earth, then the area in which to look for a mechanism is where there is no obvious cycling causality or correlation. The ‘chaos’ of the sun could still drive the ‘chaos’ on earth.
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Leif Svalgaard (15:42:42) :

……Because radiation, S, and temperature, T, are related by Stefan-Boltzmann’s law S = a T^4, changes are related thus: dS/S = 4 dT/T or the temperature change is one 1/4 of the radiation change, i.e. 0.1%/4 = 0.025% of 287K = 0.07 K which is small enough to be neglected.

Thank you for your explanation. I will familiarize myself more closely with this subject.

Your result is “small enough to be neglected” for purpose of the particular causation discussion here, yet I still see a problem with statistical comparisons of anything, irradiance, CO2 increase/decrease, what have you, and temperature change adjusted to the Celsius’ zero baseline rather than Kelvin’s. You do not comment on it, I don’t take that as acceding my point necessarily, but I think it worth consideration. Maybe the error plays out more in popular demonstrations of climate “science”, by those flouting degree Celsius stats to proclaim or disclaim the CO2 warming thesis–a rhetorical gimmick using Celsius and percentages could be used either way. I know I’ve encountered it elsewhere before, maybe in IPCC “executive summaries” or anti-warming literature. I will look around when I have time.

Leif Svalgaard (21:59:57) :

Dave Middleton (20:22:32) :
What do you think drives the PDO? Changes in THC? Or do you think there’s some other mechanism?
Every complex system with non-linear interactions oscillate all by themselves without any obvious external driver, so I really don’t know if there is one or not.

Fair enough…Thanks for the answer.

Merda taurorum animas conturbit…