Comments on: Archibald on sea level rise and solar cycles

By: Jeff Corbin

Jeff Corbin — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 16:45:15 +0000

The colrelation between solar cycle and sea level could be explained not only by increased sea temperature but by the solar cycle’s effect on the earth’s gravitational variance. Increased gravitation would lower seas levels…right?.

By: Jeff Corbin

Jeff Corbin — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 16:20:51 +0000

Solar cycle and:
–earthquake cycle
–Volcanic Aerosol density
–Sea level
–Variations in gravity
–Variation in the mass of earth’s core
and so on…and why not?

New paradigms–corelations point to questions that lead to greater understanding of causality–I think it’s grandiose to conlude Man drives the earth’s climate when the interaction between the Sun and the earth’s core is so poorly understood. What climate variables are as powerful as the sun and the earth’s core…and the interaction thereof?

By: Jens

Jens — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 20:28:44 +0000

Those interested in understanding the correlation between sea level rise and solar activity shown in Archibald’s figure should visit Nir Shaviv’s blog at sciencebits.com. He gives a simple summary of his recent paper, which has been quoted here in several comments already. He derives the magnitude of the 11 year oscillations in the rate of energy input into the seas from three independent sets of data, direct measurements of the energy content in the seas, sea surface temperatures, and rates of sea level increase, and gets consistent results. Moreover, the oscillation magnitude of about 1 W/m2 is consistent with the estimated forcing from the oscillations in low cloud coverage, which are proposed by Svensmark to be caused by the oscillations in the flux of cosmic rays. The oscillations are larger by about a factor of five than the cyclic variations in solar irradiance.

By: Robert Bateman

Robert Bateman — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 09:35:16 +0000

That’s even more than strange, Roger, as the Los Angeles Basin really is sinking at the rate of [1" / century?]. Not even the 2 combined are enough to stop the build.

By: Roger Sowell

Roger Sowell — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 01:31:24 +0000

How scary is the threat of sea level rise?

Not so much.

California Coastal Commission yesterday (April 9) approved a new electric power generating plant (expected investment $50 million U.S.) on the beach at Oxnard, California. Investor/owner is Southern California Edison. Expected plant life is 25 years.

One of the special conditions is that SCE will not build seawalls or berms or other devices to keep out the sea, should it begin rising.

Another special condition is that SCE will report the sea level, and any threat to the new power plant, 20 years from now. Even if the sea rises 3 mm per year for 25 years, that is just under 3 inches total. Not going to make a bit of difference to the plant.

Also, the Port of Long Beach is investing multi-millions in a port expansion project. Sea level rise does not seem a deterrent there, either.

By: gary gulrud

gary gulrud — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 18:33:50 +0000

“The human race is being held back by linear thinking.”

May I be exused now? My head hurts, it’s full.

By: Paul Vaughan

Paul Vaughan — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 17:52:49 +0000

Comment inspired by Bayrunner (01:49:14)

For a good example of 2 deterministically related time series that do not look related, scroll to Figure 2 at:
http://www.recurrence-plot.tk/crps.php

It’s not linear relationships that challenge with paradox.
The human race is being held back by linear thinking.

By: gary gulrud

gary gulrud — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 16:11:14 +0000

“Any number of other factors, such as cold fronts, cloudy days or even poor data could be responsible for the imperfect match.”

As well as the fact that the smoothed sun spot curve is only one proxy for solar activity. Note, e.g., that sunspot numbers collapsed Feb. 2007, well after the aa, ap numbers in Oct. 2005.

By: Bayrunner

Bayrunner — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 09:49:14 +0000

If we graph the elevation of the sun (say over 8 days) against the ambient temperature and got a correlation similar to the one above it would be reasonable to conclude that the sun might be the driver of temperature changes throughout the day. Any number of other factors, such as cold fronts, cloudy days or even poor data could be responsible for the imperfect match. Nevertheless the suggested relationship would be strong enough to warrant further work.

I’m surprised that the world’s scientific community has not unearthed the possible connection between solar cycles and Leif’s “rate of change of sea level rise” long ago.

On the other hand, I’m not the least bit surprised by the tone of discussion on this and similar blogs. For me this tone confirms an even stronger relationship between the reach of global warming ideology and the standard of warmaholic science. This relationship, more than anything else, is causing the global warming hypothesis to implode.

By: Paul Vaughan

Paul Vaughan — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 00:58:36 +0000

john k (14:47:49) :
“The comment from Boudo 02.11.36 was the most thought provoking”

The topic raised by Boudu (02:11:36)[Mar.8] is currently banned on this site (after a recent overdose-thread).

By: john k

john k — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 22:47:49 +0000

The comment from Boudo 02.11.36 was the most thought provoking,its a pity the graph did not extend to cover a much greater period of time.

By: Paul Vaughan

Paul Vaughan — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 21:38:11 +0000

Claude Harvey (22:25:38)[Mar.7]
“[...] I’d be more inclined to believe solar activity might have an effect on the instruments used to MEASURE sea level.”

Leave no stone unturned….

By: Carrick

Carrick — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 17:46:32 +0000

Leif:

I thought this issue was taken care of already, but thanks for the lesson.

Which explains your meaningless question:

This set of numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 changes by 1 for each step. what is the rate of change?
Combing arrogance with ignorance doesn't make your argument more compelling.

By: Antonio San

Antonio San — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 06:27:42 +0000

Aron (08:46:31) :

I uploaded the debate between Christy and Schlesinger on YouTube.

Thanks for the posting: When did this debate occur? All links to Christy’s publications and database seem not working. Anyone with help? Thank you.

By: Robert Bateman

Robert Bateman — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 05:47:55 +0000

No wonder I can’t go to the ocean and witness sea levels rising over the span of 50 years. It just goes up and down, and down and up, and up and down.
So does a bouy in the waves.
Nothing much doing in massive sea level rise.