Watts Up With That?

Guest post by Steven Goddard
In past years, NSIDC has referred to “declining multi-year ice” as the problem which the Arctic faces.  Mark Serreze at NSIDC forecast a possible “Ice Free North Pole” in 2008, based on the fact that it had only first year ice.  This year, multi-year ice has increased and NSIDC is now referring to declining “2+ year old” ice as the problem.  Note the missing age group (2 year old ice) in the paragraph below from their latest press release .

First-year ice in particular is thinner and more prone to melting away than thicker, older, multi-year ice. This year, ice older than two years accounted for less than 10% of the ice cover at the end of February. From 1981 through 2000, such older ice made up an average of 30% of the total sea ice cover at this time of the year.

Due to the record minimum in 2007, it goes without saying that there isn’t a lot of three year old ice in 2009.  Maybe next year they can raise the bar to 3+ year old ice, as the multi-year ice ages one more year?

Multi-year ice has increased from 2008, up to nearly 25%.  Compare multi-year ice vs. last year’s map below – upper right corner.  Read the rest of this entry »