Comments on: Global hurricane activity has decreased to the lowest level in 30 years.

By: Andy Richardson

Andy Richardson — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 13:20:01 +0000

I hope these predictions are correct. Another catastrophic hurricane would hurt the economy even further. Although some contractors may benefit from the work... Regards, Andy Hurricane Construction

By: Roger Knights

Roger Knights — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 15:04:41 +0000

Here’s a breaking news item, from a stock market site:

“The National Association of Insurance Commissioners voted to require insurance companies to disclose the impact of climate change on their businesses. This action taken on March 17 will compel insurance companies to fully disclose the impact of forecasted climate change along with their actions to manage the risks. The move by the insurance commissioners was reported this morning in The Wall Street Journal and elsewhere.”

Link: http://seekingalpha.com/article/126596-berkshire-hathaway-climate-change-impacts-insurers#comment-430567

By: Ray

Ray — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 06:04:17 +0000

Philip_B (23:18:00) :

So if we know the total energy coming from the sun and if all the weather is driven from the sun, then we can do an “energy balance”. The moon stations are interesting but I think they have now a full coverage of land with lightnings detectors.

By: Pamela Gray

Pamela Gray — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 18:22:34 +0000

During seasonal high energy storms Wallowa County has experienced these short downward micro bursts of tornado like forces that can take a barn out and then disappear but we never see the usual visual tornadic funnel. The barn will just be there one minute and blown to bits the next, almost as if some giant sat on it. I’ve seen big evergreen trees in open forests that look as if a tornado got them but it was just that one tree. Sometimes you can tell that it was probably a lightening strike. But not always. It just looks like it suddenly twisted and then came down from the top, again as if something had sat on it.

Ouch.

By: Tom in hurricane prone Florida

Tom in hurricane prone Florida — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 12:39:49 +0000

B Kerr (02:09:23) : “Yet there is a lot of energy around the outer arms of a hurricane. I was surprised that we were on tornado watch during Gustav or was it Hannah or was it both.”

There are always tornado watches put out during landfalling hurricanes. Usually they are in the right quadrant. You have strong winds circulating around the eye as the storm moves smoothly over water. When it makes landfall the components and contours of the land create eddies in the wind field which can lead to formation of short lived tornados. Some of the greatest wind damage is done by these. They have also discovered that many short micro bursts appear in or near the eye wall. Hurricanes are amazing acts of nature, as long as they are somewhere else.

By: B Kerr

B Kerr — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 10:09:23 +0000

Tom in hurricane prone Florida (15:52:18) :

B Kerr (14:57:29) : “We were in Nokomis Beach ……”

One of my favorite spots. Did you go to the drum circle on Saturday evening when you were there?

No we were there mid week, saw all the expensive houses and red Ferraris.
Take it that was you in the Tessa Rosa.

Thanks for the posting about ACE.
I’ve spent part of the night thinking how messy things would get if the formula actually use 1/2 mv^2.

Yet there is a lot of energy around the outer arms of a hurricane. I was surprised that we were on tornado watch during Gustav or was it Hannah or was it both.

Told you it was an education.

By: Philip_B

Philip_B — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 07:42:33 +0000

From rephelan’s link above,

The rest is all politics. And we should let politics decide without being ambushed by a chimera of political prescriptiveness dressed up as (false) scientific unanimity.

So it seems the science isn’t settled, and at least some scientists object to the false certainty promoted by the politically motivated.

By: Philip_B

Philip_B — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 07:18:00 +0000

Ray, they do measure the number of lightning bolts from satellites and there is even a proposal to put a unit on the moon to measure lightning on earth.

All the energy that drives the Earth’s weather comes from the sun. We know with considerable precision how much solar energy we receive and we know it only varies by a small amount on an annual to century basis. Ref Lief Svaalgard’s comments here. I very much doubt lightning frequency has a strong, or any measurable, relationship with solar energy.

Nice graphics of day versus night lightning frequency across the Earth.

http://www.lpi.usra.edu/meetings/LEA/whitepapers/GoodmanLunarWorkshop_SGoodman_Lightning.pdf

By: Mark Hursh

Mark Hursh — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 06:15:40 +0000

Now that it’s evident that supposed AGW does not increase hurricane activity the alarmist will have to come up with a new slogan. I can see it now. “Hurricane Change. Some hurricanes will be stronger. Some will be weaker. Some places will have more hurricanes. Some will have fewer.”

By: rephelan

rephelan — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 05:52:31 +0000

re: Matt Dernoga (07:33:04) :

Instead of reading a news story about how we’re all going to die tomorrow, check out a report by someone who was there in Copenhagen about how that statement from “nearly 2000 climate scientists” actually came into existence.

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/what-was-the-copenhagen-climate-change-conference-really-about-5055#comments

By: Ray

Ray — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 05:30:51 +0000

Philip_B (15:06:47) :

I am sure there are local conditions making thunderstorms unlikely, like here in the Vancouver and Fraser Valley area where we basically never have thunderstorms, but what I was aiming at is to look at the total number of lightnings on earth for a give year. This energy must also be coming ultimately from the sun. My hypotheisi is that the total number must be proportional to the solar activity somehow.

By: mr.artday

mr.artday — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 04:31:22 +0000

Outhouse: A little house 100 ft. behind the big house. In winter, that is 100 ft. too far, in summer, that is 100 ft. too near. H/T to the Dillards.

By: Michael D Smith

Michael D Smith — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 03:17:23 +0000

Smokey (18:58:19) :

To be greater than by an order of magnitude (base 10) simply means one is more than 10x the other. To say two quantities are of the same order of magnitude if one is less than 10 times the other may not be correct. (it could be 1000x less, 3 orders less). Likewise, 2 quantities could have different exponents and still be within one order of magnitude (9.9e0 vs 1.1e1)…

By: Smokey

Smokey — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 02:58:19 +0000

I always understood an order of magnitude was similar to the exponent of a number. Two quantities are of the same order of magnitude if one is less than 10 times the other. In other words, if two numbers have the same exponent, they are within the same order of magnitude. If one number has a higher exponent, it can be said to be greater by an order of magnitude.

By: Michael D Smith

Michael D Smith — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 02:51:48 +0000

FOUND IT!!! There is a little understood relationship between hurricane intensity, frequency, and global warming. The first lesson involves understanding the underlying principles of mathematics, Kentucky style:

The underpinnings of global circulation models evolves from there, with predictable results. (Little OT, but not much…)