Lake Superior last froze over in 2003. It has now, again, frozen over. The frequency of freeze overs has historically been around once every 20 years. Now, in the last decade, we have seen two freeze overs.
The picture below is a beautiful satellite photo of Lake Superior from yesterday. With the well below freezing temperatures seen over the region Thursday night (-20 F), any isolated open water could have frozen.
The NWS in Marquette MI writes:
Due to the recent cold spell and below normal temperatures for much of the winter of 2008-2009, iceĀ covers nearly all of Lake Superior. Only small areas of open water remain. This image wasĀ taken onĀ Tuesday, March 3rd. If arctic air does not return in the next couple of weeks, it is likely that this willĀ be the day of maximum ice cover on Lake Superior for this winter as warmer weather and periods of stronger winds through the end of this weekĀ willĀ cause open water areasĀ to expand. Click on the image to view a higher resolution satelliteĀ picture (image isĀ large — just under 1mb).
Source:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mqt/?n=lake_superior_ice
h/t to Kevin Klimek
How many folks do you have posting things? You’re getting very interesting articles up faster than I can read them!
So does the lake ever freeze enough to stop boat traffic? Is there some historical record of first / last traffic in a year or first use of ice breakers that can give a long term perspective (pre satellite)?
Basically, how does one interpret the meaning of “frozen big lake”? Perspective?
FWIW, I’ve gotten the source code up for GIStemp from all but STEP2 with some commentary at:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/03/06/gistemp-start_here/
Only the first few bits have explanatory comments yet. This is more aimed at programmer / tech sorts than folks looking for repartƩ.
While working for the USCG Side Looking Airborne Radar program in 1979 I was priviledged to fly in the C-130 as the SLAR operator for the USCG ICE NAVIGATION CENTER, Cleveland, Oh. We were the first to record all 5 great lakes being frozen over for the 1st time in recorded history.
Probably occurred before but known one at the Ice Nav or Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab had record of it.
Neat stuff, Keep Up The Awesome Work
Mike Brown, USCG Retired
How interesting. And as Lake Superior freezes, a stupid Brit called Pen Hadow
is telling the world [via the BBC] that he is heading for the North Pole and by using carefully chosen words is implying the Arctic Ocean is melting. Does he not understand that due to the earth’s rotation the Arctic Ocean and its ice sheet moves quite dynamically and causes splits and fissures which have absolutely nothing to do with melting ice at this time of the year.
As for Lake Superior I will check with one Al Gore as he seems to know everything about Oceanography. One couldn’t write the Scripp, sorry, script!
Ah, my old neck of the woods… Born and raised next to the mighty Superior. (Fort William Ont.; now Thunder Bay) I can remember walking home from school in winter and having ice form all over the side of me that was facing the lake! My family owned grain elevators in Port Arthur, and I often went out on the lake boats for short hauls to the Sault and points East. I even had a tour of the bridge of the now almost mythical “Fitz”. (Edmund Fitzgerald) I can recall that the lake froze over for miles out from the Lake head nearly every winter back in the mid to late ’60’s. Family back East tells me that things are pretty much back to those days as far as the weather is concerned. Just how many years of weather does one need to make climate? I am told that it’s been getting progressively colder each winter for the past 3 or 4 years.
Nice photo! A keeper fer sure.
Lake Superior, 7 March 2008, All covered with Ice.
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~gumley/modis_gallery/images/LakeSuperior_20030307_1700_250m.jpg
Butcher’s photo, as someone will likely have already observed, is in fact from 2003.
Here is the source of photos –
http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/modis/modis.cgi/modis?region=s&page=1
This is what it looked like on Feb 23rd –
http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/modis/modis.cgi/modis?region=s&page=4&template=sub&image=t1.09054.1635.LakeSuperior.143.250m.jpg
(Large image – allow it to load, then right click “View Image”)
Below freezing temperatures are forecast for Lake Superior for at least the next two weeks.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp1.html
Here is a chart that the Canadian Government posted of Lake Superior on 3/5/09:
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/NAIS25WCT/20090305180000_NAIS25WCT_0004253434.gif
My brother in law wants me to fly back again and do some more ice fishing. There are positive aspects to global cooling caused by AGW and cap-and-trade! Long live the neo-marxist Messiah at 1600 Pensylvania Avenue! (note: sarcasm alert)
markm
Here come the wolves, from Isle Royal to the mainland!
Here are a couple of more sites to check the Great Lakes ice cover:
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/great_lakes/
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/products/gl-ches/index.htm
I am sending a note to our Senator who is big on Carbon Credits
Brian Johnson
I too heard the BBC’s breathless interview with Pen Hadow as he embarked on his journey upon the creaking, buckling arctic ice, towing a radar machine behind the sled in order to measure the thickness (of the ice that is).
But there is nothing stupid about Pen Hadow, a self professed Arctic guide and expert with 20 years of experience behind him.
He has no doubt tired of a lifetime of unending expeditions, and with this final push sees himself remaining the warm side of the Arctic Circle, and as an accredited Climate Expert, joining the AGW gravy train with his hand in all our pockets.
UAH is + 0.35 for Feb.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/
North Pole Ice Survey trek: Gotta give them credit. I’ve spent several days out in -40 west of Lake Superior and it’s a challenge, to say the least. It’s also beautiful country! They seem to be “keeping their chins up”. I’m skeptical of the manual drilling in view of the physical effort required to pull sleds and just survive. We’ll hope for good data! I have a look each day at: http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/
The entire great lakes region is at 75% coverage right now, the typical average peak ice coverage is 50% for all the lakes. (Canadian Ice page). Currently 4th highest in records from 1973 for March 5th. looks like it ties about 3 other years.
Off topic Spencer’s UAH monthly anomaly has been posted as +0.35, so up 0.04 from January to February.
Factoid: According to a report by Samuel Champlain (founder of Quebec) in 1607-1608 ice lasted on the margins of Lake Superior until June (Lamb, 1995).
That was during the period called The Little Ice Age that brought disaster to Europe and may have been a major cause of the decline in the native populations of North, Central and South America.
Lamb, Hubert H. 1995. Climate History and the Modern World. London: Routledge. pp. 241. ISBN 0415127343.
And at Saulte Ste Marie they say the Soo Locks are opening in 18 days on March 25th. Good luck.
Why is using short term weather as gloating /dreaming / wishing / against all evidence commenting such a popular meme for denying there are effects happening from man’s increasing the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere?
Since that technique has been so often and so thoroughly debunked, doesn’t it fly in the face of logic to continue using it? Especially if the intent is to convince people that there is nothing to consider in all the climate change research. Usually it is only seen in the uninformed letters to the editor….
@ E.M.Smith (05:51:22) : So does the lake ever freeze enough to stop boat traffic?
Yes. The Canadian Coast Guard currently has an ice breaker in Lake Erie (which is also frozen over – normal for Erie) breaking some harbour ice in anticipation of vessel traffic expecting to begin in advance of the Welland Canal opening later this month. AFTER the ice is CLEAR in Erie, the vessel will head up to Superior to clear ice for vessel traffic up there. That’s a month or more away…
With both the AMO declining since 2005 and now negative at 0.007 for January 2009 and the PDO negative since Sept 2007 and at -1.4, we have the similar situation that existed in the 1960ās and 1970ās which were characterized by record cold temperatures and generally cooler weather. I972 was the coldest nationally for Canada when average national temperatures were 1.8 degrees lower. If AMO continues to be negative all year around and not just one month then the pattern of colder weather may be a reality for the next 20-30 years and the Great lakes will be frozen quite often like this year and like during previous cold period of 1960-1980. In Canada , AMO seems to affect the east coast more. Ten of the coldest temperatures for the Atlantic Canada between 1948 -2008 happened when the AMO was negative.
PDO affects the rest of CANADA more but especially the west coast. Nine of the 10 coldest years between1948-2008 happened when PDO was negative [like now].
The average for all of Canada is 8 of the coldest 10 years between 1948 and 2008 were when the PDO was negative and 8 of the warmest were when the PDO was positive. So the PDO is one of the main weather makers for Canada as a whole except for perhaps Quebec and the Maritimes.
Impossible. The government climate authorities have declared that February 2009 was warmer than February 2008.
Is this where the missing arctic ice went? The Goreacle must have told Scripps where to find it. Someone should give an award to Gore and Scripps for saving the planet like this.
Spaceweather is reporting a sunspot. From the old solar cycle 23.
AMO went negative in 1964 . PDO had been negative since 1944. The actual period when both were negative was from 1964-1976. Canada had five of the 10 coldest years between 1948 and 2008 during this cold period. PDO did not warm up [to 1.65 annually] until about 1983, so somewhat cooler conditions existed still into the early 1980ās.
1972- record coldest
1974 -4th coldest
1965-5th coldest
1964ā7th coldest
1967- 10 th coldest
1978 – 8th coldest
1982- 3rd coldest
But “cooler” than 2007.
Don’t get too carried away with the AMO dipping into negative territory, folks. That’s about a fifty year cycle that probably won’t go truly negative for another 20 years.
johnofmirecourt (08:08:58) :
Why is using short term weather as gloating /dreaming / wishing / against all evidence commenting such a popular meme for denying there are effects happening from manās increasing the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere?
The sheer delight of these sorts of events by skeptics, i suppose, is directly proportional to the avalanche of reports of weather events blamed on global warming by consensus experts in the media and elsewhere. I have an automatic Google search come to be every day for Climate Change. Every day it is full of news reports of weather events (or other strange and wonderful events) blamed on global warming. And, no doubt, somewhere on this large planet there is a solemn scientist explaining to a friendly reporter that the freezing of Lake Superior is proof of AGW and was anticipated in all the climate models. While the majority, like yourself apparently, will be shrugging and saying “it got a little cooler? That’s just weather, get over it.”
If consensus scientists would say that every time there was a warming weather event the story probably wouldn’t be on this blog.
“johnofmirecourt (08:08:58) :
Why is using short term weather as gloating /dreaming / wishing / against all evidence commenting such a popular meme for denying there are effects happening from manās increasing the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere?”
If you were right John then there would be no need for you to be here. But people like you keep coming back. All of you must be feeling uncertain.
The data shows a cooling trend in the earth. Manmade co2 levels are rising faster than was predicted it would. But still the earth is cooling. Warming ended in 1998. As anyone can see manmade co2 does not have the power to control what happens in the earth’s climate.
And this is not being done : “Especially if the intent is to convince people that there is nothing to consider in all the climate change research.” No one here, or at the other blogs like this one, is discarding climate research.
re: johnofmirecourt (08:08:58) :
You’re correct short term is almost meaningless whether it’s one winter or 20-30. There is no doubt that historical records indicate that long term we’re headed for ice and it now appears that these natural forces are dominant – AGW is insignificant and will not save us from the next ice age.
Thanks for posting this. It will never make the “news”, though.
johnofmirecourt (08:08:58) : said;
“Why is using short term weather as gloating /dreaming / wishing / against all evidence commenting such a popular meme for denying there are effects happening from manās increasing the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere?”
Please confirm what this evidence is, and let’s stick to the legal term of that word i.e. ‘facts’. Theoretical models from Computers that even the IPCC say are flawed are inadmissable, wishing something is true is inadmissable, saying something is true lots of times is inadmissable, believing something is true just because someone with letters after their name has told you that is inadmissable.
Please provide me with three FACTS that back up what you say.
Thank you
TonyB
for any Great White Norther over 50, this will be nostalgic
The NWS said: “IF ARCTIC AIR DOES NOT RETURN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS, it is likely that this will be the day of maximum ice cover on Lake Superior…..”
You gotta love that government-generated C.Y.A!
Maybe the fierce winds from the old-fashioned blizzard coming mid-week will break up some of those flows, but the DIRECT discharge of Arctic air following, will not help the situation no doubt.
Also….and interestingly….no mention from the NWS on what is statistically is a TWENTY-year event, has now occurred TWICE in the last SIX.
Anything that shows evidence of global cooling…even anecdotal….is downplayed and suppressed.
But U.S. government employee James Hansen has no problem showing up at a AGW protest in a blinding March snowstorm, and Gore has no problem shoving out his greedy hands to accept an UNDESERVED, ILL-GOTTEN Scripps prize. (I thought it might snow when Gore got the prize in sunny San Diego.)
Amazingly, the “evidence” of the “stories” in our public science community that get the news spotlight, point one way…. while “MOTHER SUPERIOR”, her icy cloak, and other legion indicators in nature, point the other.
Nature does not lie! And it’s not nice to fool Mother Nature.
And she is making her opinion known what she thinks of the sham science of AGW.
E.M.Smith (05:51:22) :
“. . .FWIW, Iāve gotten the source code up for GIStemp from all but STEP2 with some commentary …>
Remind me, since GIStemp is missing from the Glossary, what it does. Is it the homogenizer, the maker-up of missing data, or something else?
johnofmirecourt (08:08:58) wrote:
“using short term weather as gloating /dreaming / wishing / … doesnāt it fly in the face of logic to continue using it? … Usually it is only seen in the uninformed letters to the editorā¦.”
But the same could be said for the crowing over short-term and/or essentially localized weather events by the Global Warming Insisters, such as:
Arctic melting in 2008
Greenland melting in 2007
Sea level rising in a low-lying Pacific Island (name forgotten)
Brush fires in Australia
Katrina and other hurricanes
Every other heat-wave
Etc.
I agree that playing “Gotcha” with short-term local weather events is childish and “anecdotal” in the worst sense of the word. And I’m sure that it therefore makes a bad impression on objective critical thinkers. If this were a disinterested debate between adults, our side shouldn’t stoop to it. But we’ve been provoked by the cheap and fiendishly effective hysteria-inducing techniques of the other side into responding in kind. My hope is that once this site gets its slice of the pie from the latest climate research appropriation bill, it will segregate this sort of juvenilia in a hard-to-find portion of the site, prefaced with a warning page.
I guess our side could plead “guilty with an explanation” (unlike the Insisters), because a skeptical side is only obliged to falsify, to point to “white crows”–i.e., exceptions that disprove the Insisters’ Rule (“It’s the CO2, stupid”).
johnofmirecourt
Weather v climate again, eh? Well, if you read the comments you will note that the “meme” is that this is part of a pattern. One that all the expensive GCMs failed to predict. Indeed couldn’t predict because they take no account of the factors mentioned in Matt V’s post above. Yes, man is putting CO2 into the atmosphere (and has been since about three seconds after he first drew breath) but there is no evidence that it is having any effect on the earth at all. Unlike some of the other stuff he does (de-forestation, SO2, concreteing over everything in sight etc.) What is it about the numbers which suggest global temperature has been dropping for at least ten years that you disagree with?
LOL George Gillian, and further to that they will merely state that it’s all “new ice.”
I have a great interest in the big lake, I have spent a lot of time up there over the years. I would live there year round if I could. Though it’s majestic in all seasons, I especially love it in the dead of winter.
But surely you folks have it all wrong, the lake can’t have frozen over. Only in 2007 the University of Minnesota Duluth was quoted in the attached – the lack of ice is a clear signal of Global Warming.
http://www.medindia.net/news/view_news_main.asp?x=19839
So on that basis what does more ice mean ? Global Cooling ? Duh ?
I was up there in March 2008 and the ice cover was amazing then, absolutely beautiful to look at.
For the entire lake to freeze over it takes a combination of conditions, cold temps go without saying – it’s frequently cold up there – but there also has to be low wind conditions to minimize surface choppiness. Hence every 20 eyars or so the conditions come together and hey presto ! Or every six years from here on out maybe ?
Here’s an interesting statistic for you concerning the absolute size of the lake. If you could invert the lake like a tea cup and pour all the water out of it then it would be enough, topography permitting, to cover the entire surface area of North AND South America to a depth of one foot.
There’s enough water in the big lake to fill all of the other Great Lakes combined and still have a lot of water left over.
Like I said I love the big lake.
Anybody care to comment on the complete record of the freeze-over events of the world’s largest freshwater lake? And to how often and when the once-every 20-year-event threshold is broken, like it has been now?
Would also be interested to know if the overall wind energy across Mother Superior has been less this winter, or is it that the extreme and prolonged cold has just overwhelmed other factors such as wind that would help keep the ice sheet from forming?
This winter will be an interesting study no doubt.
But beneath the ice, there is heat in the pipeline. Once the ice melts, it will be released with a vengeance.
Thanks for the picture. Interesting stuff–as always.
Winds no doubt will have a huge affect as they always do on water. Unless it is windy, Superior won’t be melting too much in the next week:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/city/pages/on-162_metric_e.html
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/city/pages/on-100_metric_e.html
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/city/pages/on-138_metric_e.html
Most interesting to see another picture in a few days.
Clive
Still from the frozen plains of southern Alberta
…where the forecast for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday will be 16CĀ° below average… that’s 29FĀ° below average! Lordy .. would the headlines be predictable if it was that much ABOVE average. āŗ
the_butcher:
The tag in the pic you posted: 20030307
March 7, 2003….
Sorry to go o/t, but can anyone direct me to a link to Dr Christie, or Spencer’s work on the AQUA Satellite data?
Savethesharks
Nit-picking probably, but isn’t Lake Baikal the biggest? Before the Ruskies half emptied it and poisoned the rest, I believe it accounted for 1/6th of the world’s liquid fresh water.
The next ~10 years or so will be very interesting, as Al Gore and the politically correct ”debate is over” crowd may well have to contend with both the growing volume of scientific data and scientists that refuse to conform to what has effectively become the religious dogma of Rev. Gore and his acolytes; AND with discrete events like Superior freezing over more often that are easily comprehended by all.
SIDEBAR: Outdoor digital said 17.3 degrees below zero F. this morning at my 2nd home here in northern ND; where as we used to say ”the only thing between us and the North Pole is a barbed wire fence.”
IMO one reason simple discrete events like Lake Superior freezing over twice in 7 years instead of the average once every 20 years are important, is that they have a much better chance of penetrating and ”sticking” in the conciousness and memory of the average voter; compared to reams of scientific data, no matter how compelling. Collectively if we have enough events like this in the next 10+ years, eventually the ”conventional wisdom” on ”climate change” may (hopefully) shift enough to bring a return to sanity. Unfortunately, the unknown variable we cannot solve for yet is: How_Long_Will_That_Take_??
Certainly in the last couple years we already have a fair start on discrete world-wide ”weather events” that start to counterbalance the ”debate is over” mantra (snow events in the Persian Gulf and North Africa, tough winter in the U.K., etc. etc.). But likely it will take a lot more of the same and similar over many years to get hoi polloi spun up enough to demand a course change; hopefully some time before we irretrievably hit the economic iceberg. Too bad the increased velocity of the River Thames thru London after the bridge-building and other changes in the 19th Century make it very unlikely that it will freeze over again even if it gets very cold. Having another ”Ice Fair” on the Thames would get some attention. . . .
And it is sobering to consider that many of the lessons of history regarding the battles of science versus politically correct dogma are not encouraging; i.e.:
Galileo Galilei versus the Inquisition in the late Middle Ages, etcetera. Inquisitor-in-Chief Mr. Gore and his legions of Torquemadas will not be dethroned easily. . . .
Kum Dollison
You said
āDonāt get too carried away with the AMO dipping into negative territory, folks. Thatās about a fifty year cycle that probably wonāt go truly negative for another 20 years.ā
While I agree that the positive phase of an AMO cycle or even the complete cycle of positive and neagtive can be as long as 50 years [the last positive phase went from 1926 to 1964 and was about 39 years] ,this is more of an exception than the norm. The full range of durations for the positive phase only for the AMO were 6 to 60 years from 1600 to 2008. The average is closer to the low or mid 20ās. There is a cumulative probability of the AMO interval [both negative and positive] of being below 25 of about 80%. The most recent positive phases prior the last one of 1925-1964 were 11, 30, 14, 11 and 16. The key current factor is that the oceans have also been cooling since 2004 in the northern hemisphere and globally since 2003. The solar activity is low with an extended minimum like conditions or period and future solar activity is projected to be low as well for the next one or possibly the next two cycles. I donāt see anything to keep the AMO positive or warm for another 20 years despite your comments. As I previously said, the AMO monthly has been dropping since 2005 and while the January 2009 figure is not for the entire year yet, my current estimate is that the AMO may be negative all year in not too distant future and not 20 years away .
“Iām skeptical of the manual drilling in view of the physical effort required to pull sleds and just survive. Weāll hope for good data! I have a look each day at: http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/”
Hey? Are these nuts pulling the sledges themselves like Parry did back in 1827? What’s wrong with dogs? There was a big comparative trial run by Scott and Amundsen back in 1912 and as far as I recall the dogs definitely won
A blip I think.
savethesharks:
Of course! Scripps has initiated this first annual award to the Goreacle so he will have someplace to come, at least for now, to receive an award where it won’t snow. How clever, now demonstrators ought to be able to leave there parkas, boots and snow shoes home for a change.
Matt V, perhaps I misread the graph when I looked at it, but it looked to me like the AMO last went positive in 1930, and turned negative in 1980.
Do you have a link to it? I’d like to look at it, again. Thanks.
Related to Great Lakes icing over:
Does anyone have data on ice roads in Alaska; start and end dates?
It would be interesting to see if the end dates are earlier or later each year.
RE: Brits at North Pole … a tad OT …
With any luck the Brit explorers will be able to witness Arctic penguins as shown by NBC last April. Here is a link to penguins in the North Pole…has to be true it was on TV! āŗ
http://photoshare.shaw.ca/image/2/d/8/63987/articpenguins-0.jpg
Background: Last April 27, NBC ran a story about some British lass (it must be the tea, eh?) who had made the trek to to the North Pole. During the narration they ran some “B roll” … one of the video clips showed penguins on an ice floe. āŗ
The image is a “screen capture” of that NBC video story. And, no, I did not Photoshop in the penguins. It was just some sloppy “research” work by the video techs and editors who (mostly) are scientifically clueless. But it also tells a sad story about sloppiness and sensationalism in reporting. Nothing like some polar bears or penguins drifting to their doom to get the masses all worked up.
Clive
Checkout the refreeze the last 10 days at Antarica:
http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/opdaterede-sol-is-hav-temp-grafer-osv–d12-e424-s260.php#post_11160
I pointed out Wilkins ice shelf. This area is remarkably ice free. Other places on Antarctica are on the contrary extremly ahead in ice coverage.
So lets focus on Wilkins…
Oops, it looks like I mixed up my positives, and negatives, huh?
“Why is using short term weather as gloating /dreaming / wishing / against all evidence commenting such a popular meme for denying there are effects happening from manās increasing the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere?”
I recently had a discussion on what would turn public opinion on AWG. “Weather events” was one very real posible answer. It isn’t scientic, but sadly, I have to agree. Weather will be more convincing to the public than anything else.
I once heard Al Gore to proclaim on a hot summer day “If this doesn’t prove global warming, I don’t know what does” Lot of truth in that statement.
timbrom,
nitpicking, surely Baikal isn’t “fresh water” these days š
I’ve engaged several local AGW proponents and usually get the “weather is not climate” line from them every time any observsation of cold and snow is mentioned as a curiosity and indication that it’s not real warm. š
Yet these same people will use Katrina and othere weather event to demonstrate AGW. The hypocrisy knows no limits.
You should not be allowed to post pictures like this. They are very disturbing. I have a lot of respect for Al Gore and his fight to save the planet. You are making his job harder.
So what if it is getting colder? We still have to save the planet. If we don’t, who will?
You should stop worrying about facts, and embrace the larger truth that we need cap and trade and higher taxes to make the world safe for all.
Kum Dollison
Here are some good references for AMO
http://www.pnas.org/content/101/12/4136.full.pdf+html S EE Figure 4 of this article especially.
http://digitaldiatribes.wordpress.com/2008/12/23/a-look-at-the-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-amo-index/
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/AMO/
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/amo_faq.php
North Pole Ice Survey trek: Gotta give them credit. I’ve spent time camping in -40F west of Lake Superior and it’s a challenge, to say the least. It’s also beautiful country! They seem to be “keeping their chins up”. I’m skeptical of the manual drilling in view of the physical effort required to pull sleds and just survive. We’ll hope for good data, but don’t hold your breath. I have a couple of observations from my look at the web site: 1) Dr. Ron Kwok’s (Senior Research Scientist) quote headlining the home page that these measurements will give us an “unprecedented set of snow and ice data that will allow us to better characterize the current state of the Arctic ice and project its declining trend…”, and 2) the Google earth depiction of the expedition is so obviously not in real time. Regarding #1: This “science” has preconceived conclusions. As for #2: Where’s all the REAL TIME ice throughout the Northern Hemisphere?
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com
North Pole Ice Survey trek:
Last lot of green wannabe save the world hippies got frostbite as it was not as warm as Al Gore led them to believe & came back with their tails between their legs. Must admit, I’m hoping for the freezing conditions to give this crowd a serious blast of global warming so people pay more attention to their folly than the pro AGW data they probably prepared before they left.
I love this image. It shows the very strong effect wind has on ice compaction, not too dissimilar to that seen on Arctic ice in 2007.
I still wonder why colder winters aren’t viewed in the same vein as “warmer” summers, and why seeing this body of water freeze as it has be deemed “abnormal” as the temps have warmed so “dramatically”.
One tiny part of planet earth gets cold weather while the planet experiences the hottest temperatures ever recorded during a solar minimum which coincides with a La Nina – http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/ .
Time to face the reality that you picked the wrong side of the “debate”.
rick.
cooling = warming. Haven’t you heard?
We are definitely headed for a cold cycle. Just about mid march, and -35 C temps predicted for this week.. As for the CO2 argument:
“The atmospheric greenhouse effect, an idea that many authors trace back to the traditional works of Fourier (1824), Tyndall (1861), and Arrhenius (1896), and which is still supported in global climatology, essentially describes a fictitious mechanism, in which a planetary atmosphere acts as a heat pump driven by an environment that is radiatively interacting with but radiatively equilibrated to the atmospheric system. According to the second law of thermodynamics, such a planetary machine can never exist. Nevertheless, in almost all texts of global climatology and in a widespread secondary literature, it is taken for granted that such a mechanism is real and stands on a firm scientific foundation. In this paper, the popular conjecture is analyzed and the underlying physical principles are clarified. By showing that (a) there are no common physical laws between the warming phenomenon in glass houses and the fictitious atmospheric greenhouse effects, (b) there are no calculations to determine an average surface temperature of a planet, (c) the frequently mentioned difference of 33Ā° is a meaningless number calculated wrongly, (d) the formulas of cavity radiation are used inappropriately, (e) the assumption of a radiative balance is unphysical, (f) thermal conductivity and friction must not be set to zero, the atmospheric greenhouse conjecture is falsified.”
FALSIFICATION OF THE ATMOSPHERIC CO2 GREENHOUSE EFFECTS
Mike Kelley (09:19:59) :
“Thanks for posting this. It will never make the ānewsā, though.”
Mike I was just thinking!
We are supposed to live in a democracy but on a mental level we are already living under a Totalitarian Regime.
These kind of remarks makes me conclude that people have “given up” and lost all confidence.
Really weird if you ask me.
Dave Andrews
Like I said, what’s left is anything but!
“DJ (13:46:24) :
Time to face the reality that you picked the wrong side of the ādebateā.”
Here I was thinking the science is settled and there is no debate to be had – at least that’s Big Al’s approach. I’m quite happy being on the side I’m on thanks all the same DJ.
As for “weather” shifting people’s perception and further to an earlier thread in which is was mooted that when the public starts laughing at the AGW crowd things will begin to improve, recent experience lends hope. Pretty much at random I’ve been trying this out on my work mates and passing strangers. The UK Met Office claims that it may have been the coldest winter for 13 years (or whatever), but if it wasn’t for Global Warming it would have been even colder. The response has been 100% mirth.
Ron de Haan (13:49:13) :
Ron, you are right, we are living under a “soft” or mental level totalitarian Regime for sure. And many of us have given-up because we have lost confidence.
We had better gain some good’ole american courage and do whatever it takes to turn this situation around. We will have political peace when we have won the political war.
markm
My wife and I are both from da Soo, eh? We were up there around the 1st of January. Their winter has been like I remember winters there in the 1970s.
MarkM,
“We had better gain some goodāole american courage and do whatever it takes to turn this situation around. We will have political peace when we have won the political war.”
True, Mark we better not act like this guy:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0kse4y-OyY&feature=related
They are very short… the second is the worst type of denial…
According to this chart from the Canadian Ice Service there was more ice in 2003 but this year is still well above the median. It looks like since 1973 there have only been 5 years with more ice than this year at this stage of the year (as of March 5).
“Roy Spencer (14:20:29) :
My wife and I are both from da Soo, eh?”
Hello fellow Yooper,
I went to school at Northern for 2 years. I could see Lake Superior from my dorm room at Payne Hall. I had a friend who went to Houton Tech. Tech wasn’t at the end of the world… but you could see it from there.
“Their winter has been like I remember winters there in the 1970s.”
I remember snow at Thanksgiving back then, not just white Christmases. My family tells me both happened again there this year for the first time in years.
p.s., you and da wife been out fer a snowmobile ride lately? ‘Yer in da U.P. now, look out fer dat snow plow!”
Whatever statistics of once per 20 years and now twice in a decade are supposed to infer. Anthony Watts may or may not have heard of the Arctic Vortex Having been split into 2 with a warm stream having push the to parts over North America and Siberia. There you have a large part of that second time in a decade occurance of cold.
Seeing Roy Spencer post just now, meantime ‘his’ UAH just released global Feb.09 of 0.35C up from 0.307C in January.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/library/pics/UAH_LT_since_1979.jpg
Kind of a 0.55C resurfacing of heat since April 2008.
Snow cover for the NH was also down for February per Rutgers. Below the trend line.
Yes a comprehensive picture of global cooling if one adds the Arctic Sea Ice smack on the downward pointing trend line… with an extended solar minimum… and long may it last… climate scientists are loving it, not coming at a better time.
DJ (13:46:24) :
“One tiny part of planet earth gets cold weather while the planet experiences the hottest temperatures ever recorded.”
I think you are living ten years in the past! In the current decade, global temperatures have plumetted. Half the planet was covered in snow???
Whilst they now face imminent extinction, there are still small colonies of pro AGW scientists clinging to the remaining warm areas such as the antarctic peninsula. We should all pray for their lost souls and hope that they can agree to form a commitee that agrees to start the generator with all it’s wonderful CO2 emissions before they freeze to death.
Time to face the reality that you (DJ) picked the wrong side of the ādebateā.
GREEN CUSTARD, GREEN CUSTARD. GET YOUR GREEN CUSTARD HERE!
Just Want Truth… (14:56:47) :
āRoy Spencer (14:20:29) :
LSSU is where I went and could see the st. marys river from school,
Don’t ya know eah?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Marys_River_(Michigan)
http://www.lssu.edu/banished/history.php
Methow Ken (11:07:29) :
The next ~10 years or so will be very interesting, as Al Gore and the politically correct ādebate is overā crowd may well have to contend with both the growing volume of scientific data and scientists that refuse to conform to what has effectively become the religious dogma of Rev. Gore and his acolytes; AND with discrete events like Superior freezing over more often that are easily comprehended by all.
SIDEBAR: Outdoor digital said 17.3 degrees below zero F. this morning at my 2nd home here in northern ND; where as we used to say āthe only thing between us and the North Pole is a barbed wire fence.ā
IMO one reason simple discrete events like Lake Superior freezing over twice in 7 years instead of the average once every 20 years are important, is that they have a much better chance of penetrating and āāstickingā in the conciousness and memory of the average voter; compared to reams of scientific data, no matter how compelling. Collectively if we have enough events like this in the next 10+ years, eventually the āconventional wisdomā on āclimate changeā may (hopefully) shift enough to bring a return to sanity. Unfortunately, the unknown variable we cannot solve for yet is: How_Long_Will_That_Take_??
Certainly in the last couple years we already have a fair start on discrete world-wide āweather eventsā that start to counterbalance the ādebate is overā mantra (snow events in the Persian Gulf and North Africa, tough winter in the U.K., etc. etc.). But likely it will take a lot more of the same and similar over many years to get hoi polloi spun up enough to demand a course change; hopefully some time before we irretrievably hit the economic iceberg. Too bad the increased velocity of the River Thames thru London after the bridge-building and other changes in the 19th Century make it very unlikely that it will freeze over again even if it gets very cold. Having another āIce Fairā on the Thames would get some attention. . . .
And it is sobering to consider that many of the lessons of history regarding the battles of science versus politically correct dogma are not encouraging; i.e.:
Galileo Galilei versus the Inquisition in the late Middle Ages, etcetera. Inquisitor-in-Chief Mr. Gore and his legions of Torquemadas will not be dethroned easily. . . .
Methow Ken,
You don’t understand the situation here.
This is not a scientific dispute where one party tries to convince the other.
This is a well organized political doctrine which goal is reached as soon climate legislation has been introduced.
If you want to “change” something you have to develop a political strategy and execute it asap. Otherwise it will be too late.
Wow this February is .043 degrees warmer than last February… MAN THE LIFEBOATS!!!!
“Yes a comprehensive picture of global cooling if one adds the Arctic Sea Ice smack on the downward pointing trend lineā¦ with an extended solar minimumā¦ and long may it lastā¦ climate scientists are loving it, not coming at a better time.”
Loving what? Do they want the earth to burn?
Mike Bryant,
Right on man, right on!
Just Want the Truth,
I am not a Yooper, but my brother-in-law who is a true Yooper, claims that I am “a berry picker that doesn’t act like a berry picker! To him, I might get adoptive Yooper status if I keep it up.
Ya — bin ride’n the snowmachine on Keweenaw bay fish’n for da lake trout. Don’t ja ever call da lake trout a mackinaw now! You’ll be labeled a Berry Picker for sure! I think I love my in-laws more than I love my wife! And my wife is as cool as they come!
markm
Many people in the UK understand that this AGW thing is a load of bunkum. It’s a political blunt instrument to extort more money out of taxpayers. Why else would the government insist that we all limit our “carbon footprint” and then give the go ahead for the third Heathrow runway? Perhaps they think we are all too stupid to realise we are being taken for an expensive ride?
Anyone with half a brain can seek out the facts and make their own minds up. Perhaps they have because the environment (AGW) came last in a list of things important to the British electorate. We consider the economy, the EU and uncontrolled immigration more important issues. When the revolution comes the Greenies will be the first against the wall. ;0)
we haven’t been on snow machines for ever…I used to have a nice Yamaha that was very fast. I see the newer ones have every convenience except a bedroom and shower.
We didn’t have those fancy groomed trails, either. We took turns breaking trail & getting stuck.
DJ (13:46:24) :
One tiny part of planet earth gets cold weather while the planet experiences the hottest temperatures ever recorded during a solar minimum which coincides with a La Nina – http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/ .
Time to face the reality that you picked the wrong side of the ādebateā.
It’s just a glitch before temperatures resume there way down. Of course, I have to point out that your statement is fairly cherry picked and in no way changes the fact that global temps are on the way down and have been for the last 7+ years.
Are you sure you are not on the wrong side of the debate?
DJ (13:46:24) :
One tiny part of planet earth gets cold weather while the planet experiences the hottest temperatures ever recorded during a solar minimum which coincides with a La Nina – http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/ .
Time to face the reality that you picked the wrong side of the ādebateā.
Curious as to why you did not choose to link to this image..
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/discover-amsu5-trends-screenshot1.jpg
timbrom (14:12:59) :
“The UK Met Office claims that it may have been the coldest winter for 13 years (or whatever), but if it wasnāt for Global Warming it would have been even colder.”
This is a self-defeating argument. It says the natural climate is even cooler than models predict. The ability of the models to predict the natural climate accurately is the basis of all pro-AGW theory.
Look at Cryosphere Today for the latest figures. I used Jimās eye ball method to calculate the ice areas. Iām about 2% off. Still using there figures we are at 97% normal. Maybe someone should tell congress that global warming has been cancelled!
Date 3/7/2009
Current Total Ice Area 13.9
Normal Ice Area 14.4
Current % of Normal 97%
% of % of
Normal Current Normal Total Ice
Bering Sea 0.55 0.55 100% 4%
St. Lawrence Sea Ice 0.2 0.2 100% 2%
Laptev Sea 0.7 0.7 100% 5%
Kara Sea 0.85 0.85 100% 7%
Hudson Bay Sea 1.25 1.25 100% 10%
East Siberian Sea 0.9 0.9 100% 7%
Chukchi Sea 0.6 0.6 100% 5%
Canadian Archipelago Sea 0.6 0.6 100% 5%
Beaufort Sea 0.5 0.5 100% 4%
Arctic Basin Sea 4.1 4.1 100% 31%
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay Sea 1.175 1.17 100% 9%
Greenland Sea 0.53 0.53 100% 4%
Okhotsk Sea 0.98 0.89 91% 7%
Barents Sea 0.62 0.52 84% 4%
Totals 13.555 13.36 99%
Alarm! Alarm! Global warming will cause the Great Lakes to be ice free THIS YEAR!!!!!!!!!! Save the penguins!!! Save the polar bears!!!
The same people who signed the petition to ban dihydrogenmonoxide would probably sign a petition to stop the ice loss on the Great Lakes, don’tcha t’ink?
I sit in my Den in NE Oregon,32F watching the snow fly out my window,and it was doing the same thing a year ago,my DW is a Michigan girl, Raised by her dedicated Ice Fisherman Father, who would look forward to ice fishing with his pal Jack-Jack Daniels.
Douglas DC (17:30:00) : I sit in my Den in NE Oregon,32F watching the snow fly out my window,and it was doing the same thing a year ago…
Perhaps you’re the one who’s pal is Jack? Either that or you have some interesting weather inside your house. I don’t know anyone who watches the snow fly out their window. Maybe you are the cause of the global cooling going on the past few years?
8^]
I think you meant to say that you are looking out your window watching the snow fly.
Quoting:
“Nit-picking probably, but isnāt Lake Baikal the biggest? Before the Ruskies half emptied it and poisoned the rest, I believe it accounted for 1/6th of the worldās liquid fresh water.”
Commenting:
Baikal is deeper and therefore has more volume of fresh water. For suface area, Superior is tops.
If memory serves.
How can Lake Superior freeze over and the Artic thaw ????????? It’s hard to beleive everything that AGW can manage to do.
AGW is like beer… the cause of, AND the answer to all of man’s problems.
WestHoustonGeo:
“Baikal is deeper and therefore has more volume of fresh water. For suface area, Superior is tops.
If memory serves.”
This is a tricky one! One could argue that the Caspian Sea is the largest but since it has no outflow its water is somewhat brackish so one might want to go with Superior as the largest freshwater lake (although one could also argue that Lakes Michigan and Huron are really one lake formation and combined they top Superior in size). Regardless, Superior is a big honking lake!
Its interesting that a couple of years ago, after the warm El Nino winter with low ice levels (and hence high evaporation), Superior’s water level dropped significantly and of course this was all the fault of CO2 and we were all going to die etc., etc, – you know the standard warminista drivel! Well after a couple of colder winters with more ice we now see that Superior’s levels have recovered to close to the mean and will likely exceed once it Spring rolls round. The following site gives a good view to what Great Lakes water levels are doing and where they are likely headed.
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/now/wlevels/levels.html
For those of you who have never witnessed the Great Lakes, they are truly are marvel of the natural world and in the summer are a fantastic recreational playground!
Marquette United States historic January temps. 2005+2006 data missing. Graph:-
http://i599.photobucket.com/albums/tt74/MartinGAtkins/Marquette.jpg
matt v. (13:03:18) :
Kum Dollison
This is a more resent graph, it’s up to Jan 2009 AMO unsmoothed.
http://i599.photobucket.com/albums/tt74/MartinGAtkins/AMO.jpg
Tim L (15:25:17) :
MarkM (15:38:51) :
Roy Spencer (14:20:29) :
I was in the Soo in the winter of 1979-80. I was on the volleyball team from Menominee and U.P. high schools met there for the U.P. Championships –we called it The U.P. Olympics, didn’t we? I stayed in Soo Ontario and we had the games at LSSU. It was the first time I was in a real college. Menominee tied for third with Escanaba, but Esky had the tie breaker. So we didn’t medal. Escanaba always seemed to do something like that to Menominee ;).
I remember playing Sault St. Marie in football at home earlier in the year and we really had our way with them. Even our 2rd stringers scored on a lot on them. š I think the final was 63-12. But Soo didn’t care about football. Hockey was their sport.
“Roy Spencer (16:26:55) :…we havenāt been on snow machines for ever”
Wow, Roy Spencer used to ride snowmobiles!!
———
Oh ya, back on topic :
There’s a cooling trend, PDO 30 years cycles, cooling PDO now… so on, and so forth. š
Tonyb,
Providing you with far more than three:
* IPCC http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/
* IPCC-FAQ: http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/FAQ/wg1_faqIndex.html
* EPA-Basic Info http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/basicinfo.html
* EDF-Basic Science http://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2008/01/09/basic_science/
* The Discovery of Global Warming http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.html
Let’s have no more talk about beer – it has CO2 in it, don’tcha know – well, unless you have enough to share all around.
…yet it was in the mid 50’s all this week in lower Michigan. Crazy how the temperature can vary so much within the same state.
Interesting article though.
Cooling of North America seems to continue for a little while more:
http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/attachments/northamericamar09.gif
UK Sceptic (16:01:54) :
[no calls to violence ~ charles the moderator]
schnurrp
Yep and that’s why people laugh!
cold, yo.
Must be the effect of the Gore Global Warming theory. You remember Gore, the guy who invented the internet, and global warming? The Lake is beautiful, and I would love to move there someday.
Huh. Looks like there are five of us yoopers/former yoopers on here. I was raised in Houghton. MartinGAtkins: Thanks for the graph of January temps in Marquette. Couldn’t help noticing the marked 39-yr downtrend. By eyeball it looks to be about 1.2 degrees.
According to Gore: Up is down, warm is cold, lie is truth, and this truth is found by not debating.
Re: North Pole Ice Survey trek:
It’s not surprising this WWF “scientific” survey leaves with a mandate to find the state of “arctic ice decline”. Not that WWF would ever skew information. What an ethical dilemma if they run into aggressive polar bears. To shoot or not to shoot, that is the question.
My guess: the WWF report on the survey is already written. All that’s left to be done is to cherry pick supportive data and issue the press release about ” arctic ice disappearing faster than predicted”.
What? I’m typing this a few hundred feet away from Lake Superior (southern shore), there isn’t anything close to total ice coverage. And what coverage there is came fairly recently after early February saw a week long warm spell. Then, Superior was liquid right up to the shore line.
The boats never plan on running in the winter months (though they will if the winter is mild). And the major winter navigation issue is the mouth of the St. Mary’s River (something that requires piloting even during the shipping season) because it freezes early…being fairly shallow and narrow.
And what cold snap for the coming week should i be worried about? Most of the forecast calls for highs near, or above, freezing. And the lowest forecasted low is 1…that’s not cold.
Good Lord, we’re already in our second big melt-off and people are walking around without hats and gloves. Which only goes to prove that the only reliable meteorology is the kind that comes from going outside.
BTW, we had near record snowfalls this year, which generally comes with warmer weather in these parts. Colder weather tends to crust over the Lake, starving the sky of the stuff to make snow and dump all over us.
And this has nothing to do with global warming…only the observations of a person out of doors 40+ hours/wk in the Great White North.
Oh, and which part of the “region” (it is bigger than Austria) where you referring to having lows of -20 on Thursday, 3/5? The low in Marquette was 28. Highs and lows were both higher than average.
Oh gee…stumbled across this dire prediction from 2 yrs back:
http://www.bio-medicine.org/medicine-news/Lake-Superior-in-US-Losing-Ice-Cover-Fast–Signaling-Global-Warming-19730-1/
āŗ āŗ āŗ āŗ
Al Gore!! Where are you when we need you? Please go to Lake Superior and give a speech–or “read a teleprompter.” The hot air produced will not only thaw the lake but can be used to energize every home and business within a radius of 500 miles.
Wow. Quite a lovely image. I like in Duluth at the very western tip of Superior. We certainly get our fair share of cold weather and it never feels like we’re getting any of that ‘global warming’. Haha.
As one who lives on the shore of this Lake, this freeze over will help keep the temps down through Spring, and early Summer around here. Prevailing winds during this time are from the East during that time. The ice also helps keep the evaporation down. We have been maintaining about a 6″ below normal level for a few months. Without the ice, it would have been much greater. It has been a very cold winter, although Feb was much nicer, temp wise.
The N Plains(Dakotas), along with most of the Midwest, and Lakes took a good Arctic hit this winter.
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/Last3mTDeptUS.png
Some cities from NE MN, N WI, and the UP MI.
Duluth,MN
Dec. -7.0
Jan. -5.1
Feb. +0.4
DJF= -3.9
I-Falls,MN
Dec. -8.8
Jan. -5.8
Feb. -2.9
DJF= -5.8
Rhinelander,WI
Dec. -5.5
Jan. -6.0
Feb. +2.3
DJF= -3.1
Marquette,MI
Dec. -4.7
Jan. -5.3
Feb. +0.2
DJF= -3.3
Sault Ste. Marie,MI
Dec. -3.1
Jan. -3.3
Feb. +2.4
DJF= -1.3
My house is about 140 feet from the shore of Lake Superior, at Little Marais, MN.
The lake is not completely open, but only a remnant about 200 yards extends from shore today, Sunday, March 9. My wife and I walked on the lake Thursday morning. Nearby ice fishermen measured the ice as 7 inches thick. Water was bubbling up through little holes in the ice as ventured further about 50 feet from shore, a pool on top of the ice.
Yes, we can expect to see the lakers shipping coal to power plants around Lake Superior after March 15. Whether icebreakers can get through the St. Mary’s River at Sault Ste. Marie is always iffy. The shipping season is determined by the Army Corps of Engineers. Shipping ended January 15. It was cold then too.
I send daily weather observations online to the Minnesota State Climatologist.
On Monday and Tuesday this past week, two unofficial observers at Finland, MN, 8 miles inland reported a minimum of -30F. Four miles east of Finland at Wolf Ridge Environmental Learning Center, about 900 feet elevation above the lake, the report was -14F. At my place it was -9F. Extremes are that localized. The temperature rose more than 60 degrees in less than 24 hours, to a maximum of 55F on Thursday afternoon.
By the way, Wolf Ridge ELC has a climate change curriculum. You might want to check it out.
Here’s a nice link to past ice on the Lakes.(1973-2002)
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/atlas/
Current ice.
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/app/WsvPrdCanQry.cfm?subID=2001&Lang=eng
johnofmirecourt (08:08:58) : said;
āWhy is using short term weather as gloating /dreaming / wishing / against all evidence commenting such a popular meme for denying there are effects happening from manās increasing the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere?ā
To which I replied;
“Please confirm what this evidence is, and letās stick to the legal term of that word i.e. āfactsā. Theoretical models from Computers that even the IPCC say are flawed are inadmissable, wishing something is true is inadmissable, saying something is true lots of times is inadmissable, believing something is true just because someone with letters after their name has told you that is inadmissable.
Please provide me with three FACTS that back up what you say.”
Johnofmirecourt (great name) replied
“Providing you with far more than three:
* IPCC http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/
* IPCC-FAQ: http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/FAQ/wg1_faqIndex.html
* EPA-Basic Info http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/basicinfo.html
* EDF-Basic Science http://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2008/01/09/basic_science/
* The Discovery of Global Warming http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.html”
John, there are an awful lot of generalities here. Can you give me just three items that conclusively prove disastrous man made climate change so we can dissect them here and apply the scientific rule of testable hypothesis?
Thank you for your time
TonyB
It looks like Cryosphere Today is down…
Mike McMillan (09:43:20) : Remind me, since GIStemp is missing from the Glossary, what it does. Is it the homogenizer, the maker-up of missing data, or something else?
Yes.
Oh, more? This is Hansen’s imaginary friend that tells him ghost stories:
In the early steps, it deletes some data (older than 1880) and then it makes up some data (in-fill missing by guessing…) then it changes some pseudo randomly (via “the reference station method”) then it deletes some more, then it homogenizes (I think that was about STEP2, the 4th or so step… gives you an idea right there…) after which it interpolates some more data, then does some more “reference station method” but this time on “anomalies” and in the final round does some more interpolation (based on other interpolations and “simulations” based on polar ice data – maybe from our broken satellite?) and then comes back for one final round of interpolation / reference station method anomaly homogenization. The result is the Global Anomaly Map that makes AGW believers pee themselves in fear.
That is a fairly accurate list of steps (well, up to the ‘pee’ part; that only holds for a very few…). See:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/03/06/gistemp-start_here/
if you want more including source code listings…
‘conclusively’ ? ‘dissect’ ?
I’ll let you pick, but I’d posit that far better minds than ours have already gone through the arguments. If you want to discuss individual studies, the journal in question would be the venue; if you want to disprove the basics, well:
# This is a list of every skeptic argument encountered online as well as how often each argument is used. http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php
# How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic http://gristmill.grist.org/skeptics
# Climate change: A guide for the perplexed http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11462
# Anti-global heating claims – a reasonably thorough debunking http://www.scholarsandrogues.com/2007/07/23/anti-global-heating-claims-a-reasonably-thorough-debunking/
# Responses to common contrarian arguments http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/index/#Responses
Here in Thunder Bay, on the north shore of the big lake, it’s been a cold winter that started early. And what else is new? I don’t know anything about global warming, man made or otherwise, but we could sure use some if it’s out there. Carbon? Heck, if burning a tire in my back yard could get us some measurable warming, I’d do so on a daily basis. š
Johnofmirecourt (06:59:20) : said in reply to me
āconclusivelyā ? ādissectā ?
“Iāll let you pick, but Iād posit that far better minds than ours have already gone through the arguments. If you want to discuss individual studies, the journal in question would be the venue; if you want to disprove the basics, well:
# This is a list of every skeptic argument encountered online as well as how often each argument is used. http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php
# How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic http://gristmill.grist.org/skeptics
# Climate change: A guide for the perplexed http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11462
# Anti-global heating claims – a reasonably thorough debunking http://www.scholarsandrogues.com/2007/07/23/anti-global-heating-claims-a-reasonably-thorough-debunking/
# Responses to common contrarian arguments http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/index/#Responses
With respect, you are doing it again John, throwing thousands of things in the air and hoping some of them will stick. Weve all seen the ‘how to talk to a dimwitted climate sceptic’ web site and countered them.
Please take three individual proofs of global warming on the scale being suggested-you choose- so we can put them through the provable hypotheses test.
Thank you
TonyB
johnofmirecourt
Sorry, when you threw those thousands of references in the air I hadn’t noticed you had already invited me to catch three of them.
I will have a look through-it’ll be nice reading these old chestnuts again and will post a reply. I’m fairly tied up for a few days so will probably need to catch up with you on a new and relevant thread in due course, as you will see its a bit like a party here, where everyone crowds into a room to look at something then when a new attraction opens next door they all rush over there leaving the first room empty. Then the door shuts on it š
If I see you posting I will give a reply, if you see me posting you can give me a reminder but give me till the weekend.
Best regards
Tonyb
How do you catch Al Gore?
Sneak up behind him and kick him in the ice hole.
Haha…..
Or just let him wander off in the woods. He will get lost like he did when he was VP.
Cold temperature records are being set for yesterday and today from the Spokane, Washington area to Redmond, Oregon. The Jet stream loop down into the western part of the US is the reason. This loop draws both winds and cold temps from the Arctic right into our homes and blew up my skirt today!
May the road rise to meet you.
May the wind always be at your back.
May sun shine warm upon your face,
the rain fall soft upon your fields,
and until we meet again
may God hold you in the hollow of His hand.
Sort of….a Marilyn Monroe type of skirt-blow-up, there, Pamela??
Well enjoy it. I wish that Irish Blessing had something to say about the “snow” falling soft on the fields.
(Maybe we should make it a Norwegian Blessing)
The pic currently on Spaceweather.com from your neck of the woods in the good ole’ PAC NW with the snowflakes with Venus visible in the background….is spectacular.
Well Mother Superior is about to get rocked by a blizzard. Will probably wrinkle her icy coat no doubt…or maybe enhance it.
Minimum temps near or below zero night after next…
Do women in Duluth wear skirts this time of year?? Just asking.
Chris
Norfolk, VA
AGW Irish Wish
May the seas fall to leave you high and dry.
May the wind always blow up your skirt and chill your cheeks.
May sun shine…okay, forget sun shine…
the snow fall soft into your dread locks,
and until we meet again
may Gaiai (or whatever the hell her name is) hold your feet to the icecube for mocking her.
May Old Man Winter not be such a perv when he blows you ladies skirts up!
Pamela the Poet wrote:
“AGW Irish Wish
May the seas fall to leave you high and dry.
May the wind always blow up your skirt and chill your cheeks.
May sun shineā¦okay, forget sun shineā¦
the snow fall soft into your dread locks,
and until we meet again
may Gaiai (or whatever the hell her name is) hold your feet to the icecube for mocking her.”
HA HA HA HA I WAS IN MY OFFICE READING THIS AND I LAUGHED OUT LOUD.
BUSTED!
Surfing the net during work…but i needed that. Thanks Pamela.
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Pamela the Poet:
I laughed my Irish … off on that one!
(may the sun shine….ok, forget sun shine…)
I want to blatantly steal this to amuse the crowd on St. Paddy’s Day. — with proper attribution, of course…