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	<title>Comments on: The heliospheric current sheet as solar cycle proxy</title>
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	<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/17/the-heliospheric-current-sheet-as-solar-cycle-proxy/</link>
	<description>The world&#039;s most viewed site on global warming and climate change</description>
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		<title>By: Leif Svalgaard</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/17/the-heliospheric-current-sheet-as-solar-cycle-proxy/#comment-88271</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Leif Svalgaard]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Feb 2009 22:52:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=5688#comment-88271</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hugo M (13:22:11) :
&lt;i&gt;cannot penetrate a collision-less highly conducting plasma” . The weakness of Svalgaard’s argument lies in the adjective “highly”,&lt;/i&gt;
I should have said infinitely high. The resistivity of a plasma is determined by collisions between the particles and there are no collisions in the solar wind. The mean-free-path [=distance between collisions] is of the order of the distance to the Sun. The conductivity is for all intents and purposes infinitely high.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hugo M (13:22:11) :<br />
<i>cannot penetrate a collision-less highly conducting plasma” . The weakness of Svalgaard’s argument lies in the adjective “highly”,</i><br />
I should have said infinitely high. The resistivity of a plasma is determined by collisions between the particles and there are no collisions in the solar wind. The mean-free-path [=distance between collisions] is of the order of the distance to the Sun. The conductivity is for all intents and purposes infinitely high.</p>
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		<title>By: Leif Svalgaard</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/17/the-heliospheric-current-sheet-as-solar-cycle-proxy/#comment-88264</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Leif Svalgaard]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Feb 2009 22:47:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=5688#comment-88264</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Radun (14:15:12) :
&lt;i&gt;I have clearly stated :” I have no time for his theories”, but that does not mean that this intriguing formula should not raise serious interest&lt;/i&gt;
The formula is not intriguing at all [not to me, at least]. There have been dozens of similar formulae, going back to Rudolf Wolf himself:
Rz(t) = 50.31 + 3.73 * (1.68 sin (585.26t) + 1.00 sin (360t) + 12.53 sin (30.35t) + 1.12 sin (12.22t))
where Rz is the sunspot number. This formula had a very good correlation with the observed sunspot number during 1834-1858.
The formula was based on the accurate periods of Jupiter, Venus, Earth, and Saturn. Needless to say, the formula stopped working as more data came in.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Radun (14:15:12) :<br />
<i>I have clearly stated :” I have no time for his theories”, but that does not mean that this intriguing formula should not raise serious interest</i><br />
The formula is not intriguing at all [not to me, at least]. There have been dozens of similar formulae, going back to Rudolf Wolf himself:<br />
Rz(t) = 50.31 + 3.73 * (1.68 sin (585.26t) + 1.00 sin (360t) + 12.53 sin (30.35t) + 1.12 sin (12.22t))<br />
where Rz is the sunspot number. This formula had a very good correlation with the observed sunspot number during 1834-1858.<br />
The formula was based on the accurate periods of Jupiter, Venus, Earth, and Saturn. Needless to say, the formula stopped working as more data came in.</p>
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		<title>By: Radun</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/17/the-heliospheric-current-sheet-as-solar-cycle-proxy/#comment-88243</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Radun]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Feb 2009 22:15:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=5688#comment-88243</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Mr. Hugo, Mr. Svalgaard, Mr. Vuckevic
I have clearly stated :” I have no time for his theories”, but that does not mean that this intriguing formula should not raise serious interest, just because there is no satisfactory explanation. From correlation point of view, the amplitude and phase adjustments can be ignored, only two physically meaningful and accurate numbers are left. Cycles oscillate around 11 years and science has to take it as such. To say “suppose the cycle was 17 years long” introduces a wrong premise, it is not good enough for science. 
Mr. Vuckevic, by accounts your science is unsafe, but your formula is an original and notable achievement, for the moment at least. Further data over years to come will decide long term value of your efforts.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mr. Hugo, Mr. Svalgaard, Mr. Vuckevic<br />
I have clearly stated :” I have no time for his theories”, but that does not mean that this intriguing formula should not raise serious interest, just because there is no satisfactory explanation. From correlation point of view, the amplitude and phase adjustments can be ignored, only two physically meaningful and accurate numbers are left. Cycles oscillate around 11 years and science has to take it as such. To say “suppose the cycle was 17 years long” introduces a wrong premise, it is not good enough for science.<br />
Mr. Vuckevic, by accounts your science is unsafe, but your formula is an original and notable achievement, for the moment at least. Further data over years to come will decide long term value of your efforts.</p>
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		<title>By: Hugo M</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/17/the-heliospheric-current-sheet-as-solar-cycle-proxy/#comment-88206</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Hugo M]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Feb 2009 21:22:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=5688#comment-88206</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&lt;blockquote&gt;
Radun (11:36:26) : Mr. Leif Svalgaard,
I’ve observed Mr. Vuckevic posts, I have no time for his theories, but I do believe that your attitude is very odd.
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Radun, this is really unjust. Since two weeks or so Dr. Svalgaard became the patience itself, especially when reacting on V.&#039;s paraphysical way of thinking. Confer to V.&#039;s response on the point, that &quot;a varying electric/magnetic field cannot penetrate a collision-less highly conducting plasma&quot; . The weakness of Svalgaard&#039;s argument lies in the adjective &quot;highly&quot;, which is uncertain to almost any extend. But you certainly would not take a magnet, a coil and a compass to counter this, evading to consider the plasma and thus the core of the argument.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>
Radun (11:36:26) : Mr. Leif Svalgaard,<br />
I’ve observed Mr. Vuckevic posts, I have no time for his theories, but I do believe that your attitude is very odd.
</p></blockquote>
<p>Radun, this is really unjust. Since two weeks or so Dr. Svalgaard became the patience itself, especially when reacting on V.&#8217;s paraphysical way of thinking. Confer to V.&#8217;s response on the point, that &#8220;a varying electric/magnetic field cannot penetrate a collision-less highly conducting plasma&#8221; . The weakness of Svalgaard&#8217;s argument lies in the adjective &#8220;highly&#8221;, which is uncertain to almost any extend. But you certainly would not take a magnet, a coil and a compass to counter this, evading to consider the plasma and thus the core of the argument.</p>
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		<title>By: Leif Svalgaard</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/17/the-heliospheric-current-sheet-as-solar-cycle-proxy/#comment-88166</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Leif Svalgaard]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Feb 2009 20:40:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=5688#comment-88166</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Radun (11:36:26) :
&lt;i&gt;formula parmeters are not some specialy chosen values to fit the data, but the acurate values for Jupiter’s orbit and Jupiter-Saturn orbit linkage.&lt;/i&gt;
Since Jupiter&#039;s period is close to the sunspot cycle length, it is picked for that reason; suppose the cycle was 17 years long. Jupiter would not have been selected. Then one has to pick a phase, and that one is certainly picked to fit. Last, since the amplitude changes over the 40 year period you need to add in a function to do this. Almost any periodic function with power well above 11 years would do with the right [picked] phase.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Radun (11:36:26) :<br />
<i>formula parmeters are not some specialy chosen values to fit the data, but the acurate values for Jupiter’s orbit and Jupiter-Saturn orbit linkage.</i><br />
Since Jupiter&#8217;s period is close to the sunspot cycle length, it is picked for that reason; suppose the cycle was 17 years long. Jupiter would not have been selected. Then one has to pick a phase, and that one is certainly picked to fit. Last, since the amplitude changes over the 40 year period you need to add in a function to do this. Almost any periodic function with power well above 11 years would do with the right [picked] phase.</p>
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		<title>By: Radun</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/17/the-heliospheric-current-sheet-as-solar-cycle-proxy/#comment-88118</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Radun]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Feb 2009 19:36:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=5688#comment-88118</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Mr. Leif Svalgaard 
I’ve observed Mr. Vuckevic posts, I have no time for his theories, but I do believe that your attitude is very odd. His formula appear, at list to me to be in line with your predictions. It is wrong in this case to state: “Through any number of data points one can find a curve that has perfect correlation.” Mr. Vuckevic claims correlation is good (not perfect) formula parmeters are not some specialy chosen values to fit the data, but the acurate values for Jupiter’s orbit and Jupiter-Saturn orbit linkage.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mr. Leif Svalgaard<br />
I’ve observed Mr. Vuckevic posts, I have no time for his theories, but I do believe that your attitude is very odd. His formula appear, at list to me to be in line with your predictions. It is wrong in this case to state: “Through any number of data points one can find a curve that has perfect correlation.” Mr. Vuckevic claims correlation is good (not perfect) formula parmeters are not some specialy chosen values to fit the data, but the acurate values for Jupiter’s orbit and Jupiter-Saturn orbit linkage.</p>
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		<title>By: anna v</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/17/the-heliospheric-current-sheet-as-solar-cycle-proxy/#comment-88100</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[anna v]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Feb 2009 18:51:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=5688#comment-88100</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Somebody on another thread gave the following synchronisation demonstration of metronomes:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yysnkY4WHyM&amp;feature=related

It is instructive to watch them. What is happening? conservation of momentum and angular momentum is finally synchronizing the two. How? Through the base and some friction.

In the planetary system and the sun, I cannot conceive an analogue of this, with the physics we know. ( science fiction is another story). 

People are hand waving planetary magnetic fields. I would like to see numbers, the strength of these fields and the strength of the Sun&#039;s fields. Does anybody have links?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Somebody on another thread gave the following synchronisation demonstration of metronomes:<br />
<span style="text-align:center; display: block;"><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/17/the-heliospheric-current-sheet-as-solar-cycle-proxy/"><img src="http://img.youtube.com/vi/yysnkY4WHyM/2.jpg" alt="" /></a></span></p>
<p>It is instructive to watch them. What is happening? conservation of momentum and angular momentum is finally synchronizing the two. How? Through the base and some friction.</p>
<p>In the planetary system and the sun, I cannot conceive an analogue of this, with the physics we know. ( science fiction is another story). </p>
<p>People are hand waving planetary magnetic fields. I would like to see numbers, the strength of these fields and the strength of the Sun&#8217;s fields. Does anybody have links?</p>
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		<title>By: Leif Svalgaard</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/17/the-heliospheric-current-sheet-as-solar-cycle-proxy/#comment-88086</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Leif Svalgaard]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Feb 2009 18:11:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=5688#comment-88086</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[vukcevic (02:04:15) :
&lt;i&gt;My correlation is good !&lt;/i&gt;
Through any number of data points one can find a curve that has &lt;b&gt;perfect&lt;/b&gt; correlation [e.g. Lagrange polynomials], and fits all the data points exactly. But this curve is usually useless outside of the domain of the data points [or sometimes even between the points] and cannot be used for extrapolation [i.e. prediction]. For that there has to be valid physics behind the curve.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>vukcevic (02:04:15) :<br />
<i>My correlation is good !</i><br />
Through any number of data points one can find a curve that has <b>perfect</b> correlation [e.g. Lagrange polynomials], and fits all the data points exactly. But this curve is usually useless outside of the domain of the data points [or sometimes even between the points] and cannot be used for extrapolation [i.e. prediction]. For that there has to be valid physics behind the curve.</p>
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		<title>By: Leif Svalgaard</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/17/the-heliospheric-current-sheet-as-solar-cycle-proxy/#comment-88079</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Leif Svalgaard]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Feb 2009 17:42:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=5688#comment-88079</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[HasItBeen4YearsYet? (09:18:46) :
&lt;i&gt;I’m happy for you that the sun is shining in your neck of the woods.&lt;/i&gt;
My neck of the woods covers a large fraction of solar science, so you should be happy for science at large.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>HasItBeen4YearsYet? (09:18:46) :<br />
<i>I’m happy for you that the sun is shining in your neck of the woods.</i><br />
My neck of the woods covers a large fraction of solar science, so you should be happy for science at large.</p>
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		<title>By: Leif Svalgaard</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/17/the-heliospheric-current-sheet-as-solar-cycle-proxy/#comment-88076</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Leif Svalgaard]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Feb 2009 17:37:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=5688#comment-88076</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[vukcevic (02:04:15) :
&lt;i&gt;belief of one man cannot be superior to that of the other.&lt;/i&gt;
But the ignorance of one man can be &#039;superior&#039; to that of the other.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>vukcevic (02:04:15) :<br />
<i>belief of one man cannot be superior to that of the other.</i><br />
But the ignorance of one man can be &#8216;superior&#8217; to that of the other.</p>
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		<title>By: HasItBeen4YearsYet?</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/17/the-heliospheric-current-sheet-as-solar-cycle-proxy/#comment-88067</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[HasItBeen4YearsYet?]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Feb 2009 17:18:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=5688#comment-88067</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[@Leif Svalgaard (21:02:37) :

&lt;em&gt;&quot;HasItBeen4YearsYet? (18:45:52) :
I know personally hundreds of researchers and the attitude you describe is rare [at least in my large sample].&quot;&lt;/em&gt;

I&#039;m happy for you that the sun is shining in your neck of the woods.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Leif Svalgaard (21:02:37) :</p>
<p><em>&#8220;HasItBeen4YearsYet? (18:45:52) :<br />
I know personally hundreds of researchers and the attitude you describe is rare [at least in my large sample].&#8221;</em></p>
<p>I&#8217;m happy for you that the sun is shining in your neck of the woods.</p>
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		<title>By: vukcevic</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/17/the-heliospheric-current-sheet-as-solar-cycle-proxy/#comment-87909</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[vukcevic]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Feb 2009 10:04:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=5688#comment-87909</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Vukcevic 
to 
Svalgaard

Just a quick note before I depart;
Elsewhere you said, to paraphrase, that solar scientists do not know what sunspots are (where, how and why they are generated, etc). For millennia lack of knowledge has been substitute by a belief, an attribute of very subjective quality, belief of one man cannot be superior to that of the other.

&lt;b&gt;My correlation is good ! &lt;/b&gt;; still stands righteous, despite the relentless assault, while the rest may or may not prove to be a worthless speculation, or as my grandfather would often say: 
&lt;b&gt;omnia nihil sunt et reliqua minoris &lt;/b&gt;

http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/PolarFields-vf.gif
http://www.geocities.com/vukcevicu/PolarFields-vf.gif]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Vukcevic<br />
to<br />
Svalgaard</p>
<p>Just a quick note before I depart;<br />
Elsewhere you said, to paraphrase, that solar scientists do not know what sunspots are (where, how and why they are generated, etc). For millennia lack of knowledge has been substitute by a belief, an attribute of very subjective quality, belief of one man cannot be superior to that of the other.</p>
<p><b>My correlation is good ! </b>; still stands righteous, despite the relentless assault, while the rest may or may not prove to be a worthless speculation, or as my grandfather would often say:<br />
<b>omnia nihil sunt et reliqua minoris </b></p>
<p><a href="http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/PolarFields-vf.gif" rel="nofollow">http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/PolarFields-vf.gif</a><br />
<a href="http://www.geocities.com/vukcevicu/PolarFields-vf.gif" rel="nofollow">http://www.geocities.com/vukcevicu/PolarFields-vf.gif</a></p>
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		<title>By: E.M.Smith</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/17/the-heliospheric-current-sheet-as-solar-cycle-proxy/#comment-87893</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[E.M.Smith]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Feb 2009 09:22:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=5688#comment-87893</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&lt;i&gt;Leif Svalgaard (12:27:14) :
&quot;vukcevic (02:51:17) :It should be noted that the synchronising (or a modulating effect) is related to the Hale cycle.&quot;
makes no sense, explain.&lt;/i&gt;

As I understand Vukcevic, I would take this to mean that the oscillation of the planetary magnetosphere above and below the plane of the ecliptic (causes / is related to / modulates); the double cycle (magnetic flip) Hale cycle as opposed to the single 11ish year non-magnetic specified half cycle.

At least, that&#039;s how I read his stuff...]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Leif Svalgaard (12:27:14) :<br />
&#8220;vukcevic (02:51:17) :It should be noted that the synchronising (or a modulating effect) is related to the Hale cycle.&#8221;<br />
makes no sense, explain.</i></p>
<p>As I understand Vukcevic, I would take this to mean that the oscillation of the planetary magnetosphere above and below the plane of the ecliptic (causes / is related to / modulates); the double cycle (magnetic flip) Hale cycle as opposed to the single 11ish year non-magnetic specified half cycle.</p>
<p>At least, that&#8217;s how I read his stuff&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: E.M.Smith</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/17/the-heliospheric-current-sheet-as-solar-cycle-proxy/#comment-87886</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[E.M.Smith]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Feb 2009 09:11:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=5688#comment-87886</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&lt;i&gt;Robert Bateman (23:09:38) : I do wonder about today’s microprocessors that are down to 45 and 32 nm being easier to damage by CR’s.&lt;/i&gt;

It&#039;s not just damage...  The size of the memory cell in modern memory is so small and the charge on it so few electrons that even at ground level particle events can cause a memory cell to flip states.  This is a major factor in the move to error correcting memory in the last decade or two in PC&#039;s.  ( I remember when I was first told that we needed to make sure we put ECC chips in machines due to cosmic rays being an issue at the new scales used... it was an interesting discussion ;-)  While it doesn&#039;t happen often and ECC (error correction code) can fix it, you don&#039;t want this happening in the middle of your bank transactions nor in your real time flight controls!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Robert Bateman (23:09:38) : I do wonder about today’s microprocessors that are down to 45 and 32 nm being easier to damage by CR’s.</i></p>
<p>It&#8217;s not just damage&#8230;  The size of the memory cell in modern memory is so small and the charge on it so few electrons that even at ground level particle events can cause a memory cell to flip states.  This is a major factor in the move to error correcting memory in the last decade or two in PC&#8217;s.  ( I remember when I was first told that we needed to make sure we put ECC chips in machines due to cosmic rays being an issue at the new scales used&#8230; it was an interesting discussion ;-)  While it doesn&#8217;t happen often and ECC (error correction code) can fix it, you don&#8217;t want this happening in the middle of your bank transactions nor in your real time flight controls!</p>
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		<title>By: Leif Svalgaard</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/17/the-heliospheric-current-sheet-as-solar-cycle-proxy/#comment-87865</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Leif Svalgaard]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Feb 2009 07:45:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=5688#comment-87865</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[E.M.Smith (22:17:37) :
&lt;i&gt;Will this change over time as less ‘junk’ is left to fall in? Will it matter on very long time scales, or does it just move a digit way over on the right hand side of the decimal point every few billion years?&lt;/i&gt;

It is losing mass, but very slowly. In th end, the Sun will begin to lose mass more rapidly and &#039;puff&#039; off about 40% of its mass and become a &#039;planetary nebula&#039;:  http://www.astro.washington.edu/users/balick/WFPC2/]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>E.M.Smith (22:17:37) :<br />
<i>Will this change over time as less ‘junk’ is left to fall in? Will it matter on very long time scales, or does it just move a digit way over on the right hand side of the decimal point every few billion years?</i></p>
<p>It is losing mass, but very slowly. In th end, the Sun will begin to lose mass more rapidly and &#8216;puff&#8217; off about 40% of its mass and become a &#8216;planetary nebula&#8217;:  <a href="http://www.astro.washington.edu/users/balick/WFPC2/" rel="nofollow">http://www.astro.washington.edu/users/balick/WFPC2/</a></p>
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