Comments on: The UK Climate Impact Programme Forecasting Scoresheet

By: John M

John M — Sun, 08 Feb 2009 00:07:41 +0000

Well…

I don’t want to brag….

http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

John M (05:52:26) :

I’m guessing 0.3 – 0.35.

The graphs hows +0.31 for Jan.

By: Jeff Alberts

Jeff Alberts — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 16:47:21 +0000

Mike Bryant (20:35:59) :

Si Hoc Legere Scis Nimiam Eruditionis Habes.

Gaudeamus Igitur

Sorry, that’s all the Latin I remember that’s not from Life of Brian…

By: Mike Bryant

Mike Bryant — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 04:35:59 +0000

Si Hoc Legere Scis Nimiam Eruditionis Habes.

or… I use Google…

By: John Finn

John Finn — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 20:01:49 +0000

John M

Then, I stuck my finger in the air, turned around three times, and screamed like a chicken. I’d describe it in more detail, but I view the method as my own personal property, and WUWT doesn’t have an archiving or disclosure requirement for custom algorithms.:)

Ok – seems pretty similar to my own model. I was wondering if anyone had any ‘inside knowledge’ but it seems not. I di, though read this on Roy Spencer’s blog the other day

Use the drop-down menu to pick “ch5″ (AMSU channel 5) which is the channel John Christy and I use to monitor mid-tropospheric temperatures.

The link is here:-

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/01/daily-monitoring-of-global-average-temperatures/

Ch5 temperatures seem to be relatively cooler than Ch4 and ChLT which may explain why my estimates are lower than yours (and SteveG’s).

By: Oldjim

Oldjim — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 17:24:12 +0000

You will really love this one
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7858104.stm
“Another cold snap is heading for the UK, as forecasters warn of the chilliest winter for 13 years.”

By: John M

John M — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 13:00:05 +0000

John Finn (02:04:52) :

For my estimate, I looked at a variety of channels (mostly, Channel 4, 5, and ChLT) and compared this month to previous Januarys for a handful of previous years. The Java graphing window allows you to do this. For no particular reason, I gave a slightly heavier “gut feel” weighting to Channel 5 (14,400 ft).

(Just so we’re on the same page, this is the site.)

http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/

By: John Finn

John Finn — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 10:04:52 +0000

Re: UAH estimates

To those who have provided estimates. Have you just made an ‘intelligent’ guess – or do you have a method of calculation which you think works.

Just interested.

By: LarryOldtimer

LarryOldtimer — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 07:45:04 +0000

Because of a cold and wet summer in 2008, England lost half of its wheat crop. Because of very early rain, sleet and snow, N Dak farmers managed to harvest only 23% of their row crops, same 2008. I will take the heat, as I prefer to eat.

By: John Finn

John Finn — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 00:53:39 +0000

Steven Goddard (07:50:24) :

John M,

Good idea. I’m going to raise my UAH estimate a little and narrow the range. Slightly higher than November. 0.27-0.29

I’m going slightly lower, i.e. 0.23-0.25

By: Alan Chappell

Alan Chappell — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 18:38:28 +0000

Nihil Curu De Ista Stulta Superstitione.
Si Hoc Legere Scis Nimiam Eruditionis Habes.

By: Steve Berry

Steve Berry — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 17:45:37 +0000

Brits. This is (I think) where the “hotter, drier summers…” comment came from http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climatechange/about/index.htm – under ‘What climate change means for us’.

Fail!

By: TonyB

TonyB — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 17:10:34 +0000

Alan The Brit

My house actually looks over the Dawlish to Teignmouth sea wall you describe. I unearthed a report censuring Brunel as he built the railway line to the wrong alignment making it subject to closure by storms which was causing substantial costs to the railway co.

The report was dated around 1860, ten years after the line opened! The sea level hasnt moved an inch since as can be seen by the harbour Brunel had built at the time to take the goods needed for the lines construction.

Do you live close by?

tonyB

By: Sam the Skeptic

Sam the Skeptic — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 16:12:48 +0000

John Philip
D-, I’m afraid, for research. “Hot”, as fas as I know, is 30C. The last day that temp was reached in London was July 27, 2006. That was also the record temp FOR THAT DAY. It only takes a couple of clicks to find 35 for early August in the heatwave of 2003. You’ve misread the facts.
Please try to remember: weather is not the same thing as climate. This seems to me the “mistake” (if it is a mistake) that government weather/climate agencies make. They cannot tell us what is going to happen next week let alone in 50 years but they pretend they can.
And talk of a 95-year warming trend is plain stupid. 20th century temperature rose and fell on roughly a 30-year cycle. If that trend continues we are due a downturn.

By: Steven Goddard

Steven Goddard — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 15:58:07 +0000

steven G, You would have had to have spent the last two summers in the UK to appreciate the humour behind the hot, dry summer forecasts. It has been nearly three years since the UK had a hot day. By contrast, there was a three week period of hot weather in 2003 which became the poster child of global warming in Europe. "Cold weather isn't climate, but hot weather is."

By: Steven Goddard

Steven Goddard — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 15:50:24 +0000

John M,

Good idea. I’m going to raise my UAH estimate a little and narrow the range. Slightly higher than November. 0.27-0.29