Watts Up With That?

Guest post by David Archibald

With respect to the month of minimum, it is very likely that Solar Cycle 24 has started simply because Solar Cycle 23 has run out.  Most solar cycles stop producing spots at about nineteen years after solar maximum of the previous cycle.  Solar Cycle 23 had its genesis with the magnetic reversal at the Solar Cycle 22 maximum.  As the graph above shows, Solar Cycle 23 is now 19 years old. Only 9% of the named solar cycles produced spots after this.

The graph also shows the position of Solar Cycle 24 relative to its month of genesis. Solar Cycle 24 is now the second latest of the 24 named solar cycles.  January is 105 months after the Solar Cycle 23 maximum.  Only Solar Cycle 5, the first half of the Dalton Minimum, is later. This lateness points to Solar Cycle 24 being very weak. Read the rest of this entry »