http://www.biomind.de/nogreenhouse/daten/EE%2018-2_Beck.pdf

Pretty interesting read. If he is right, it would sure change things.

Anthony;

The link to the paper “Limits on CO2 Climate Forcing from Recent Temperature Data of Earth” is

http://arxiv.org/abs/0809.0581

Also a copy is attached.

Regards;

David Douglass

If you have a little bit of statistics it is well worth the read. In summary, they treat predicting 20th century temperature as a time-series regression problem with a model of the form:

T(t) = k1S(t) + k 2V(t) + k3 I(t) + k 4 L(t) + b

where T(t) is the temperature at time t, S represents el-nino effects, V volcanic effects, I is solar irradiance, L is a linear term and b is a constant (k1, k2, k3, k4, and b are to be estimated from the data).

They find a very good fit with:

k1 = 0.129 +/- 0.008 K/K

k2 = -2.9 +/- 0.2 K/um

k3 = 0.103 +/- 0.017 K/(W/m2)

k4 = 76.8 +/- 10.0 mK/decade

b = -140 +/- 23 K

Units for the el-nino coefficient k1 are degrees K of warming per degree K of SST 3.4 anomaly. For the Volcano coefficient k2: degrees K of warming per micrometer of atmospheric optical density. For the solar irradiance k3: degrees K of warming per W/m2 of solar forcing.

k4 is most related to the subject matter of this post. It is the linear trend in the data after all the other effects have been removed: 0.77 degrees K per century.

Volcanoes cause a temporary +1.0C to +1.5C increase in Stratosphere temperatures and then temps seem to drop 18 months later to a new lower level; about -0.5C lower than where they were before. They might slowly build back up to normal until a new volcano occurs.

Stratosphere cooling is a key fingerprint of global warming.

But if you look at this chart, it is more Volcanoes that are the main driver of Stratosphere cooling not GHGs. (This same up and down swing occurs with the radiosonde data for the Agung volcano in 1963 before the satellite data became available).

http://img258.imageshack.us/img258/235/uahstratvolcanoesyb5.png

http://www.glaciology.net/Home/PDFs/Announcements/Volcanic-impact-on-sea-level-and-the-global-water-cycle

I agree with Steve.
The Chaiten volcano continues to grow, similar to an eruption of Tambora is not fully discarded

That’s an extremely important point you make in that coherent analysis. This stuff is useful for pinpointing the true effect of CO2, which, of course, we don’t know yet. Nor, may I not be the last to point out, do we know the magnitude of water vapor feedback, nor truly even its sign. So, look again Joel; your mind may have deceived you.
==============================================

http://www.nuclearpowerdaily.com/reports/Bratislava_restarts_nuclear_reactor_to_avoid_blackout_999.html

Gee. I think I see a pattern developing.

a) It’s cold. Very cold.
b) When it’s cold, people do what they need to do to stay warm.
c) They will get back to you on ‘agreements’ and ’saving the world’ later.
d) Nuclear works in any weather. Wind, solar, and (in this case) gas; not so much…

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Ice_closes_German_rivers_to_shipping_authorities_999.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short-time_Fourier_transform

At the bottom is an example of a sound analysis. Imagine it with a big spike at the high frequency end (the volcano) and some low signal in the low end (AGW or other long term natural warming trend).

That ought to let you see the relative sizes of the different time series oscillations too (*NSOs)…

Or maybe I need to think about it some more…

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Tropical_Thailand_declares_emergency_as_cold_hits_999.html

And, sea levels have been tens of meters higher too, which is also not any sort of problem…unless you are one of the hundreds of millions of people who live this close to see level. And, for that matter, there have been supervolcanoes and major asteroid impacts and all sorts of things…so apparently these aren’t anything to worry about either!”

(I can just hear this coming from the lips of Marjoe Gortner, Just add “Brothers and sisters”, to the beginning of the paragraph)

Meanwhile prices of seaside property are skyrocketing, even Al is buying seaside property… it seems like he would think it a poor investment. Do all the political and scientific elite think the common man is THAT stupid? Just wondering…

Sorry, Joel, but your rhetoric does not sound like the dispassionate observations of a man of science. Perhaps you need to get out of the lab and take a vacation… the beach, maybe?

And I still say we are talking about weather. Yes, long term weather, but weather nonetheless.

Joel Shore (14:32:09) :

And, sea levels have been tens of meters higher too, which is also not any sort of problem…unless you are one of the hundreds of millions of people who live this close to see level. And, for that matter, there have been supervolcanoes and major asteroid impacts and all sorts of things…so apparently these aren’t anything to worry about either!

Worry about them all you like. But the solution is to adapt, not attempt to control the global climate, because it can’t be done. The oceans will rise and fall in spite of CO2 levels.

I used the UAH dataset here:

http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/tltglhmam_5.2

If it has been adjusted for the effect of volcanic eruptions, I was unaware of that. I don’t think it has, and would need some proof of that.

Interesting argument, the geography did not change, so what did? I like it.

But, my question has been (but not expressed), how much do undersea volcanoes and thermal vents affect the ocean currents? Or undersea earthquakes that move the sea floor up or down? I have no expertise or much knowledge in this area, but I do know a lot about fluid dynamics as a chemical engineer. It does not take much disturbance to impact the flow.

Anyone who has ever built a rock dam in a small stream will know what I mean. A small pebble has little effect. But, a rock of sufficient size will certainly affect the flow.

Is there any literature on this?

Roger E. Sowell
Marina del Rey, California

And, sea levels have been tens of meters higher too, which is also not any sort of problem…unless you areone of the hundreds of millions of people who live this close to see level. And, for that matter, there have been supervolcanoes and major asteroid impacts and all sorts of things…so apparently these aren’t anything to worry about either!

Alright….We’ve been here before. Please quantify the see {sea} level rise that will displace millions of people.