Polar Sea Ice Changes are Having a Net Cooling Effect on the Climate

10 01 2009
A guest post by Steven Goddard
One of the most widely discussed climate feedbacks is the albedo effect of polar sea ice loss.  Ice has a relatively high albedo (reflectance) so a reduction in polar ice area has the effect of causing more shortwave radiation (sunlight) to be absorbed by the oceans, warming the water.  Likewise, an increase in polar sea ice area causes more sunlight to be reflected, decreasing the warming of the ocean.  The earths radiative balance is shown in the image below.  It is believed that about 30% of the sunlight reaching the earth’s atmosphere is directly reflected – 20% by clouds, 6% by other components of the atmosphere, and 4% by the earth’s surface.
Radiation & Climate Slide
We all have heard many times that summer sea ice minimums have declined in the northern hemisphere over the last 30 years.  As mentioned above, this causes more sunlight to reach the dark ocean water, and results in a warming of the water.  What is not so widely discussed is that southern hemisphere sea ice has been increasing, causing a net cooling effect.  This article explains why the cooling effect of excess Antarctic ice is significantly greater than the warming effect of missing Arctic ice.
Over the last 30 years Antarctic sea ice has been steadily increasing, as shown below. Read the rest of this entry »




What is the red dot?

10 01 2009

A simple question; what is that red dot on the map? I was looking at the CONUS map browser depicting the 2008 temperature departure from normal provided by NOAA’s High Plains Regional Climate Center and noticed something odd:

last12mtdeptus-shaded-520

Click for a larger image

Note the red dot in Arizona, which is the only one in the USA. Truly an anomaly. At first I thought it might be University of Arizona Tucson and its famous parking lot station, but that is further southeast.

The other map depiction HPRCC offers also shows it, and narrows it to a single data point: Read the rest of this entry »





Mid-Winter Report Card

10 01 2009
Mid-Winter Report Card
Guest post by Steven Goddard

We are almost at the half way point for the meteorological winter (December through February) and it is a good time to evaluate how the NOAA CPC (Climate Prediction Center) and UK Met Office winter forecasts are doing so far.  As seen below, CPC forecast the highest probability of warmth for Alaska and the upper midwest.

Looking at the results, it appears that the CPC forecast map was approximately inverted from what has actually occurred.  The near record cold air which has been sitting over Alaska, is now pouring into the upper midwest.  As of this morning, the temperature in International Falls, Minnesota is -22F, and historical cold is forecast for the coming weeks across most of the midwest and eastern US.
Here is the Month of December: Read the rest of this entry »