"The good news is, if this sucker blows, global warming is not going to be a problem. "

looks like NCEP has suddenly lost interest in comparing past snow cover LOL
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/snow/

Detailed information and daily reports on Yellowstone:
1. Alan Sullivan, Fresh Bilge, http://www.seablogger.com
2. Ralph Harrington’s Volcanism Blog: http://volcanism.wordpress.com/?s=yellowstone&searchbutton=go!
3. Erik Klemetti’s Eruptions: http://eruptions.wordpress.com/

Wow, I am reading additional articles about the Yellowstone supervolcano, e.g.
http://www.radionetherlands.nl/currentaffairs/region/northamerica/090108-yellowstone-volcano
http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&q=yellowstone+supervolcano
A 325 miles radius circle around the park to be possibly evacuated? That’s pretty impressive. Are the housing prices around the park dropping?
The eruption would save a few trillion dollars for cooling the Earth (for 0.3 °C or so, more than all the carbon emission cuts until 2050), according to the carbon “market” prices, but that would probably not be the biggest effect of such an eruption.

‘I am personally keeping close watch on the seismic activity in the area and if I see anything ominous I’ll let you know. As soon as I finish packing and driving about 2,000 miles to the south of here.’
Hmmmm………that would put in southern Mexico.
Or Hawaii, It could become our national capital.

A “Supervolcano” eruption is usually classed as a Volcanic Explosivity Index of 8 and the last known one was a bit nearer than 70 000 years ago. Lake Taupo in New Zealand erupted 26,500 years ago producing 300 km³ of ignimbrite, 500 km³ of pumice and ash fall and a unknown volume of material inside the caldera – over 1000 cubic km in all. The eruption is thought to have formed the caldera now filled by Lake Taupo. The most recent eruption of Taupo was AD 186 but this was only a VEI of 7 – only about 150 cubic km of ash was erupted. The 186AD date is from Roman and Chinese observers noting red skies – quite good for an eruption on the other side of the world.

Theory has it that the earth was hit by a another planet which as well as tilting the axis giving us seasons also formed the moon from the debris. The collision also melted everything so that now we have a solid high temperature inner core, a molten mantle and a very thin cool crust from which the continents formed. In the cracks of this thin crust the mantle regularly spills out through volcano vent holes and rifts, many of which are under the ocean.
The temperature is so hot inside the earth that if we drill down just 7.5 miles the temperature will reach over 400 deg F.
But unlike the sun which is generating heat from nuclear fission which seems to be thermostatically controlled (although this may oscillate up and down around the power that has been set by a higher force), like a hot potato when you take it out of the oven, the earth is cooling. Our solar system is also subjected to other random events that are happening in the universe in which we are hurtling along with billions of other stars at 250 km/sec.
However, the luminosity of the Sun will increase by 40% over the next 3.5 billion years. In 900 million years or so we will have lost all plant life, the oceans will have dried up and the earth will be uninhabitable. Even if the sun was to last forever, the earth would be uninhabitable in 500 million years as the cooling mantle would cause the loss of most of the atmosphere and oceans.
In the meantime we have to survive super-volcanic eruptions, giant asteroid collisions, gamma ray bursts from space, mega-tsunamis, famines, global pandemics, anthropogenic warring (not a spelling error), overpopulation, climate change and thousands of Hollywood disaster movies.
And Al Gore is worried about CO2 !!! I think we should start looking for another planet – now.

You think the economy is bad now…..

Yikes…

Lets be clear here – this is a not a piddly little Mount St. Helens – this is a SUPERvolcano. When the Lake Toba Supervolcano blew in Sumatra roughly 70 thousand years ago – there were layers of ash 600 meters thick deposited in Sumatra and up to 6 inches thick across the whole of India and in South Africa. From the geologic record they also know that global temperatures dropped by about 3 to 3.5 degrees Celsius for up to a century following the event and it likely led to a planet-wide die off. There is some evidence to suggest that the human lineage were almost wiped out by this event.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toba_catastrophe_theory
If Yellowstone (comparable in size to the Lake Toba caldera) is really going to blow – you’d need to evacuate North America -not the States around it…
Worried? – Sure, but tomorrow I could be hit by a bus. In the meantime, have a beer, sit back and laugh at Al Gore – you’d be surprised how much stress it will relieve.

Very normal to see this during times of grand minima, and its all probably due to the change in the “torque” that the solar system is experiencing right now just as it has every other time of grand minima. See graph below.
http://users.beagle.com.au/geoffsharp/ssbtorque1740-2070.jpg

I’d worry more about Chaiten which continues to erupt and may well produce a cataclysmic Krakatoa sized eruption.

Hmm, I live 2000+ miles Southeast of there (South Florida) and I don’t feel much better about it. A super-volcano in Yellowstone would still kill me & mine, but slowly, e.g. by starvation or any of the other consequences of such a rapid destruction of the global ecosystem. This would send us all back to the stone age.

I just happened to been there just between December 26th and January 2nd. When I took the snowmobile to Yellowstone Lake the ranger station (read: warming hut 🙂 ) they had this picture also printed out. Other than that It shows that most of the shocks are from under the lake. See also the dots. There is already longer suspicion that something is out there (and it ain’t Ness borther 🙂 ).
Still no worries according to the experts. There is not enough magma (yet) to cause a new supervulcano.

The Yellowstone super volcano would totally re-define the term major disaster if it decided to blow in modern times. It would certainly test the hypothesis of global cooling due to volcanic ass injection into the atmosphere.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huckleberry_Ridge_Tuff
The Ash Fall fossil bed site in Nebraska tells the tale of an earlier eruption from that hot spot some 12 million years ago, that dumped volcanic ash feet deep in Nebraska.
http://ashfall.unl.edu/ashfallstory.html
There have been a couple of similar episodes, in Yellowstone. Uplift was noticed in the north end of the lake some years back when they realized the shore line was changing in odd ways that were best explained by the whole lake basin tilting.
There was also a ground bulge scare in California. The Mammoth lakes region near the old Long Valley Caldera, also experienced ground inflation. That volcano has a very similar eruption history to Yellowstone.
The so called Palmdale bulge appeared about the same time period, but it was believed due to stress building up for a potential release of a major earth quake.
http://www.fieldwerks.com/yellowstone_lake.htm
http://www.ireport.com/docs/DOC-172706
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,914086,00.html
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=950DEEDE163AF936A35751C1A96F948260
Larry

typo correction should read — volcanic ash injection into the atmosphere.
Ooops
Larry

This is an interesting post. A large event like this (God forbid it should actually happen) would raise a plausible “escape hatch” for AGW alarmist scientists who may need cover for a failed hypothesis. I was impressed by Sharon Begley’s article in the Jan. 3 Newsweek, which discusses the extreme reluctance of scientists to change their minds, or to admit changing their minds.
I’ve been miffed at Begley since her propaganda piece last spring about “The Denial Machine.” Now I wonder if she isn’t doing a lot of thinking about climb-down strategies for AGW alarmists. See http://www.newsweek.com/id/177740

You really think 2000 miles will matter? Ok, so you will have sun for a few extra weeks, but that thing goes massively and ‘nuclear winter’ like effect for the planet will likely happen for years.

I am sorry to report I don’t see the link or video that you refer to as Hokey but fun to watch.

From NWS FTW:
WE ARE IN STORE FOR A BIG CHANGE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD
TROUGH OVER MUCH OF NOAM SENDS COLD ARCTIC AIR DOWN INTO THE REGION.
RELIABLE COMPUTER MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
DETERMINING JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE. THE AIR MASS ORIGINATES IN
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ALASKA WHERE DAYTIME TEMPS HAVE BEEN MINUS 20
TO MINUS 45+ DEGREES. GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW IN THE DEAD OF
WINTER…STRENGTH OF A RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE WEST COAST…A
MCFARLAND PATTERN SETUP NORMALLY RESULTS IN SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF WINTER…

Yes that looks like a sunspot, moreover the region in question yesterday is showing signs too.

Hello Austin, We are getting the same forecast for NE Alabama for the cold next week.
About Yellowstone. If that thing goes There will be no worry about warming. Just where the next meal will come from. With food supplies costing more and more on an almost daily basis now I wonder how bad it will be if most of the arable land in the northern hemisphere is covered in ash (which later will become fertile land) and nuclear winter for 5+years. I suspect that there will be some survivors and that they will be scattered around the globe. It would suit me just fine if the explosion were put off for a few hundred years. I just don’t want to witness it. There is certainly nothing we can do about it.
Wait didn’t we do this once before for Y2K?!!!!!!
Bill Derryberry

We live 200 miles from Yellowstone and our ask beds are 20 feet thick i dought that any thing lived through that!!!

TitiXXXX1892 (03:53:15)-
Absolutely hilarious!!!!!! Bravo!

By the way:
Austin: what region are you talking about ?

It’s not going to “blow”… but I like the way it scares some people 🙂
I was there the year Elvis died. No kidding… family vacation, we were in Gardner, Montana overnighting with our tent trailer when someone asked if we’d heard the news.
Hauled a giant 8-person Jayco trailer with our 1969 Buick Wildcat all the way up and down mountains, and gained a lot of respect for just how HUGE the geoformations are in that entire area. If you haven’t been there, I assure you that videos and pictures can’t possibly give you a sense of what it’s like. I clearly remember driving up an almost vertical face of thousands of feet with switchbacks and all, and when you get to the top it’s plains!
Yellowstone itself humbles you. Well, assuming you’re a science-oriented person and actually think about what you’re looking at. If you ever want to feel insignificant on this planet, wander around and consider how this one natural formation dwarfs all of humanity’s works. Then consider that this huge thing is ONE thing, and a minor one at that.
Sorry for waxing poetic, but… yeah… I don’t think it’s even possible for Yellowstone to blow, pretty much everything in the park is relieving the pressure that might otherwise be building up, and it would take tens of thousands of years of building up before there was enough to actually explode.

People love apocalyptic stories. For every cataclysmic eruption of Yellowstone, there are many small ones.
We will muddle through this somehow, just as we will continue to muddle through our variable climate.

There are several active volcanoes currently but the one I believe has the best potential for an explosive eruption would be Koryak (or Koryaksky) on Russia’s Kamchatka peninsula though it isn’t a “super” volcano.
One thing that was very interesting recently was new volcanic activity in Ethiopia along a rift where many geologists believe a new ocean is forming. A new ocean is being made in our lifetimes though I doubt any of us will live to see it fill with water. The rift valley will some day be the spreading center of a mid-oceanic ridge.

Jeff L (07:41:31)
I, for one, am hugely reassured by your post. Thank You.

The magma body under Yellowstone is around 7-10 kilometers deep. Essentially all the seismic activity is at shallower depths with few reaching down to the body. There is no sign of deeper activity that would indicate that the magma is being fed from below so there is really no immediate danger of a supervolcanic event.
It has been quieter for a week or so now although there have been some harmonic tremors indicating that something is moving about in the crust above the magma (actually a slurry, they say).
Here is a site where you can see the seismograms.
http://www.seis.utah.edu/helicorder/heli/yellowstone/index.html
Most of the activity was closest to seismometer LKWY_SHZ_US which has been offline for a day or so. There is a link to a map so that you can see which other seismos are near the north end of the lake, YLT, and YTP are pretty good. They are short period, but with the bumps being as close as they are the energy is relatively short period (high frequency) anyway (“high frequency is several Hz. and up in geophysics as opposed to the long distance stuff which is often less than 1 Hz., but they don’t give the specific band widths at this site). YFT and YUF are broadband sites nearby which is where you should look if you want to see something from far away in the world like the recent Indonesian quakes.
Each line is 15 minutes long, vertical gridlines are 1minute color coded for 0-15, 15-30, 30-45 and 45-60 minutes after the hour. Zulu time on the right MST on the left.
There are links to older data on the site.

TitiXXXX1892 (03:53:15) :
Reminded me of that story, which I think I found on WUWT at first

Hey, why not combine the crises into one? The Earth’s crust has a certain temperature gradient. For each unit of distance one goes deeper, temperature will rise a certain amount. This heat is conducted through the crust and is dissipated there. If one increases the average temperature at the surface, the temperature increases down through the entire crustal temperature gradient.
Now if the temperature gradient in the upper crust is 20 K/km, then increasing temperature at the surface by 1 K (same as 1 C) ends up melting 50 meters of rock from where it is currently melted toward the surface. Global warming can then cause a super volcanic eruption. So Al Gore needs some new slides for a sequel to his movie. Besides, that old Oscar should be wearing out soon and he will be needing a replacement.

Jeff L (07:41:31) :
“Volcanoes do not erupt the same way every time they erupt. They have a statistical distribution – commonly lognormal- just as most natural phenomena do. What does that mean? The probability of a doomsday eruption is exceedingly low. It is disturbing to me that so many people focus on the P0.0001 case vs the P50 case. This is exactly what the Gore-Bull warning crew does – focusing on a doomsday warming scenario which has virtually no chance of occurrence. We need to do better than that. Focus on the science. Divorce yourself from the emotion. Make sure the public gets the best answer science can provide, not scaremongering.”
Well said, and very, very appropriate. Panic is extremely contagious and almost always counter-productive.

When does “suckers” use to blow up?, during solar minimums?. Anything to do with Ap index?

Instead of throwing all of these trillions at CO2, how about we invest it in the only route to salvation for the human race: life in space. We need to become planet free to ultimately survive…

Rod Smith,
That is an interesting behavior in humans. To focus an inordinate amount of anxiety in avoiding an almost non-existent threat. For instance, I have had many, many people tell me the reason they don’t wear seat belts is that 3% of the time it’s better not to be wearing a seat belt at the time of a crash and they see absolutely nothing wrong with this risk analysis.

I felt my first quake after moving to scenic Whidbey Island in Western Washington State in 2002. (after having grown up in Northern VA)
There was a 5.2 quake near Friday Harbor out in the San Jauns, I believe. At my house, probably 50-70 miles away, it felt like a low frequency vibration, like a column of heavy tanks were moving along at high speed on the road outside. Lasted for about 20 seconds or so. It was also like blasting one might feel near quarries or construction sites, but prolonged.

I watch the History Channel quite frequently. I think their title is a misnomer… it should be the Catastrophe Channel… LOL

“The good news is, if this sucker blows, global warming is not going to be a problem”
No, the good news actually is global warming is not going to be a problem regardless of whether “this sucker” blows or not. The bad news is, if this sucker blows at a time when we’re cooling, such as we apparently are now, it could exacerbate the cooling significantly. It would also give the AGW believers like Greg Laden a handy “explanation” for the cooling in entirety, saying that it was just “masking” the warming, which would be sure to return in a few years. “Best Science”, my foot.
Any fool knows that it is, in fact cooling that is to be feared, not warming.

I can’t see what all the fuss is about. All we need do is fill the depression with reinforced concrete.
We will of course have to start a letter campaign urging our world leaders to fire up every available cement mixer or, every living thing on earth will be destroyed….including polar bears.

Ric Werme
I am doubly reassured! (but would never tempt fate – not that I suggest anyone is BTW)

I would have thought the type of volcanic ‘event’ is dependent on the quantity of gasses in the magma, a smooth flow of liquid magma means little gas is present which means that the upward flow of magma has not been constrained for a long period of time, now if the upthrusting magma at the head of the inner hotspot is prevented from reaching the surface due to an unyielding crust then the disolved gas content will increase over time changing the nature of the magma from extrusive to explosive.
An intensive seismic survey of the chamber might help determine the character of the magma chamber or an analysis of the gasses emeging from the lake bed/geysers?
If there has been a recent extrusion of liquid magma then the chances of an ‘explosive event’ is reduced I think.

Jeff Alberts
“Only if you refuse to heed the numerous warnings given…”
—————————————————————
The signal will be the mass exodus from the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory.

Of course, if Yellowstone does go Kablooie! then I hope, before your power goes out, come on here and post a “We were wrong” apology!
Sure you will. We on this site have integrity.
Although there apparently is no need to brush snow off the top of an Anderson screen as it does not effect the readings, what is the recommendation if the covering is ten metres of ash?
Ahh, panic. The only person who ever benefited from it was Harry Harrison’s Stainless Steel Rat – “I permitted myself one instant of panic, to promote the flow of adrenalin, then clamped down hard with my mental control. No panic, Jim! You’ve been in tight spots before. Think – don’t react blindly.”

“It will also stay in the main sequence producing approximately the same amount of energy and luminosity for another 4 Billion years.”
But the earth will likely be long dead by then anyway. First of all, the sun’s output increases as it ages even in the main sequence. It is currently hotter than it was when life first appeared on the planet. This increase in output will continue as it ages. At the same time as the Earth cools, volcanism will slow. This will reduce the gasses pumped into the atmosphere and reduce the action of plate tectonics.
Any significant decrease in subduction would be a substantial decrease in CO2 entering the atmosphere. CO2 will be scrubbed out of the atmosphere and plants will begin to die which will then result in the animals dying. The atmosphere gradually “outgasses” into space, the oceans evaporate away and we are left with a planet looking much like Mars with only a thin CO2 atmosphere left. All of this while the Sun is still in the main sequence. We probably have less that 125 to 250 million years of Earth supporting life as we know it today.

K-Of-Cool
Also, I don’t know where you are getting your information on mantle cooling.
The mantle cools about 50-75 degrees Kelvin/Billion Years*
*http://www.the-conference.com/JConfAbs/5/1037.pdf
Current temp of the Mantle ranges between 900 degrees F and 1700 degrees F at the mantle/crust boundary — to over 6000 degrees at the mantle/core boundary.

http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/ seems to be quite comprehensive. In a quick scan of these comments I did not see a cite to this website.

new rumbles today
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsus/Maps/US2/43.45.-111.-109.php

Climatefanboy-not sure that verse makes much sense here. Yes, hot lava will be spewing from the Caldera, but the main effect the world has to worry about is the giant ash cloud that will spread around the world-the world wouldn’t burn, it would freeze. Unless, you meant that AGW was going to burn the world-which is frankly impossible. Even at the massive levels of CO2 in the Earth’s past, it didn’t get ~that~ hot. I personally think that refers to when the will expand and set nuclear fire to the atmosphere
I hardly think there is any good news if Yellowstone rips us a new one. But just goes to show how AGW religion twists ones thinking.

Hi guys,
OT comment I want someone to criticize:
Since we are in a period of cooling . . . some will say that we are in a flat period . . . . irregardless . . . . in as much as the warming is said to be the cause of the sea level rise because of ice melt, then . . .
If the mms per year rise in sea level continues while the temperatures remain static . . . the theory of anthropomorphic global warming is definitively falsified. Perhaps it is possible to falsify AGW with existing information by this line of reasoning.
Fire away.
Grant

Human sacrifice seems to be exactly what is being proposed by a lot of fringe – and mainstream – Greenies, and this pathological worldview has long ago entered public mainstream thought in the form of “humans-as-cancer/virus” groupthink.
It’s certainly being proposed by regulars like SecularAnimist (give me strength) at RealClimate. I posted some humorous comment, none of which was approved…

If the mms per year rise in sea level continues while the temperatures remain static . . . the theory of anthropomorphic global warming is definitively falsified. Perhaps it is possible to falsify AGW with existing information by this line of reasoning.
Fire away.
Grant

Sea levels have been flat to a slight downtrend since 2006. There is currently no sea level rise. It is another “projection” that has shown to be false.

I figure that these last few earthquakes are right on the edge of the caldera. So if future earthquakes stay within the caldera they will be migrating north. These last earthquakes are 2.6 miles NNW of the WLWY station which has recorded a 10 inch uplift in the park over the last 4 years—the most of anywhere in the park.

MikeM – good thought. Why do these “let’s thin the human species” types never volunteer and set a good example for the rest of us? Put your money where your mouth is, says I!

Why not throw Al straight into Old Faithful? Direct action is what it’s all about, right?

Living about 100 miles from Yellowstone, I’m finding this discussion very interesting. I’m not really worried by living so close to Yellowstone. If it blows as a supervolcano eruption, those living close to the caldera will be the lucky ones. Dying of ash pneumonia, cold and starvation are far worse that incineration and that’s what appears to have happened to all but a few thousand or less humans when Toba erupted about 74,000 years ago.

Note that the IPCC falsely states the cause and exaggerates the consequences, both constructs of a straw man.
—————————————————
Temperature Change and CO2 Change – A Scientific Briefing
Written by Christopher Monckton
Wednesday, 07 January 2009
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/monckton/temperature_and_co2_change_briefing.html
THE CHIEF REASON for skepticism at the official position on “global warming” is the overwhelming weight of evidence that the UN’s climate panel, the IPCC, prodigiously exaggerates both the supposed causes and the imagined consequences of anthropogenic “global warming”; that too many of the exaggerations can be demonstrated to have been deliberate; and that the IPCC and other official sources have continued to rely even upon those exaggerations that have been definitively demonstrated in the literature to have been deliberate. In short, science is being artfully manipulated to fabricate what are in essence political and not scientific conclusions – a conclusion that is congenial to powerful factions whose ambition is not to identify scientific truth but rather to advance the special vested interests with which they identify themselves.

@Grant Hodges,
There would be a lag between changes in the atmospheric temperature and ocean temperature even if one assumes the former to drive the latter, which is by no means clear.
BTW it’s “anthropogenic”, anthropomorphic means shaped like a man. 😉

Sorry to veer OT like that. Been watching this site for a while now: http://www.yellowstonegis.utah.edu/. Nice compendium of stuff.

TitiXXXX1892 (03:53:15) :
“Reminded me of that story, which I think I found on WUWT at first
How to construct a world-wide panic
The essential elements of an effective global panic consist of two parts:
First, one needs to identify a potential source of a world-wide catastrophe. Second, one needs to convince everyone that that actions of man are about to trigger that catastrophe. This is best illustrated by this following theoretical example:
It is well known that a “Super Volcano” lies under Yellowstone park. This volcano went undetected for many years, because its sheer size is so large it escaped notice when looking for something more familiar in size.
The consequences of another eruption of this monster can be fairly well predicted. First, it will simply blow away a fair-sized piece of Montana, and falling ash will bury cities for many miles beyond. The atmospheric ejecta will blanket a large portion of the earth, blocking out the sun and producing a “nuclear winter” for a significant portion of mankind. Crop failures and other effects of rapid cooling will lead to the death of untold billions of both human and animal inhabitants.
In fact, there are some significant geothermal and other indicators in Yellowstone that suggest this monster is again on the move. This has sparked at least one major television presentation discussing the potential for another eruption and the obvious catastrophe that would follow if it does. But this information in itself has not created much in the way of panic. Most citizens are resigned to the fact that mega-disasters, should they occur, can not be prevented by human action because they are part of the natural behavior of the planet and worrying excessively can not change anything. Don’t worry, be happy, we’re all in this together.
To turn the Yellowstone Super Volcano into a world-wide panic, we need a convincing piece of junk science as a trigger. Taking our cue from the “man-made CO2 is causing global warming” hoax, here’s one distinct possibility as far as Yellowstone is concerned:
Professor Wilfred Brimstone at the University of Mongolia has developed a model which clearly shows the buildup of human population on both the east and west coast of the United States is putting excessive pressure on both sides of the North American plate. The accumulation of vast amounts of additional weight in the form of people, buildings, automobiles, and other man-made items is creating such an excess of plate pressure at the edges, that magma is being forced laterally toward the center of the country, and in particular towards a weak crust zone in Montana centered at Yellowstone park. In the same manner as popping a pimple by squeezing from two opposing sides, the “coastal weight effect” is squeezing the magma beneath the crust and causing a rapid pressure buildup of the Yellowstone Super Volcano. Man’s greed to live near the ocean has tipped the balance of nature, and it is now only a matter of time until Yellowstone blows its top.
….. unless we take quick action to arrest and reverse this process.
It is critically important to immediately evacuate everyone from both coasts, and dismantle all heavy structures and begin transporting them to the center of the country, redistributing them evenly over a wide area until the overall plate pressure has been suitably equalized and the danger has passed. Senator Barbara Boxer has introduced a bill which will impose a stiff tax on any item weighing more than six ounces in order to pay for the weight relocation. A new $100 million Center for Building Weight Studies is currently under construction in Santa Barbara.
If you do not want to be dislocated from your present home, former Vice President Al Gore has just formed a new company, Relocation Unlimited, in which you can invest in “weight offsets” and not have to move. For a price, Mr. Gore will arrange have an equivalent weight of ordinary dirt dug up and relocated instead of your own 3 bedroom ranch.
It is also of immediate importance that we educate our children in the nature of this pending disaster that their parents’ over-building has created. Children everywhere should quickly make costumes that resemble blocks of concrete and conduct ritualistic marches in the general direction of the central Midwest. This, combined with the waving of signs and the singing of Kumbaya will quickly spread the word throughout the public school system and draw the attention of the mainstream media which is also critical to this effort. Working together, we can all stem this rapidly looming disaster.
incidentally, you can purchase your STOP YELLOWSTONE NOW t-shirts by visiting our online store, and our book by the same name is available on Amazon.com. A prime time television special is currently in production”.
And you believe that?

Karl and crosspatch, thank you for your corrections and reassuring comments about the life of sun and earth. Mine was just a light, not very well researched banter on the perspective of little picture – Gore and big picture – universe. Next time I go swimming I will keep in the shallow end.

crosspatch-
the Sun has gotten ~300 degrees Kelvin hotter since it entered the Main Sequence about 4.57 Billion years ago — it will not get appreciably hotter , or more luminous until it starts burning helium – A little over 4GY in the future
The Sun will not be luminous enough to kill all plant life on Earth in 900 Million years — as KOC posited.
Subduction will not stop in 125 or even 250MY
The Earth’s Core will still be 7000 degrees in 250MY (maybe 200 degrees C lower than today, maybe not) — the upper mantle will be between 800 degrees F and 1600 degrees F – the lower still 2500-6000 Subduction will still be going on

The Earth’s Core and Mantle temperatures will still be plenty hot for the next 2 Billion Years — Core Temps >5000 F and Mantle Temps between 800 and 1600 F (the mantle only cools by 50-75 degrees K per GY.

I am well aware of that, Karl, which is one reason Earth has retained so much atmoshere to date. Venus is apparently has very active volcanism which keeps the atmosphere recharged with fresh gasses.
Gasses are constantly being stripped out of the atmosphere by the solar wind and by such things as disruptions by large flares that are directed at Earth. They are replaced by volcanism. Stop volcanism and you stop those gasses being replaced. And at the same time, if you constantly turn the heat up from the sun over time, as it does when it ages, you are eventually left with a rock.
We could probably get an atmosphere going again on mars by doing something like A: intentionally crash Phobos into the planet since it is in an unstable orbit and is going to crash into Mars anyway in another million or two years, just get that overwith now. B: Drill a very, very deep hole and intentionally drop enough fissionable material down that hole to cause a “melt down” (intentionally not enough moderator). Then stand back and wait a few million years. Heck, you might just want to go collecting up asteroids all through the belt and send them into Mars. Some serious bombardment would begin to heat the place back up again.

I think it’s worth noting that seismic recording has only been going on for a few decades here. We have no way of knowing if this is “normal”; it may have happened many times before. In all probability, given the speed with which scientists come out and spout crap about anything these days, I’d say it’s probably benign and that there’s nothing to worry about.

Pearland Aggie (04:46:24) :
I guess this is a new sunspot that will end the spotless streak…looks fairly legit.

Cycle 24 begins!
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/10jan_solarcycle24.htm

REPLY: Um, that was last January. And I scooped NASA on it days before they had the story, see here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/01/04/solar-cycle-24-has-officially-started/

I used to watch docos on the Discovery Channel, and some about Volcanoes, and they basically said Yellowstone could errupt at any given time and that’s been proven indefinetely compared to AGW. Good thing I’m in Australia xD
Eloise

I hope it holds off a bit. I need to get used to the sun shutting off first. If this does go then forget mild ‘Grand Minimum’ … we’re in for a Sporer and Maunder double whammy. It’s going to be 200 years before we get back to the 70’s let alone 80’s. That should do in wheat farming just south of the 60th parrallel 😉

Hi Fred,
Thanks for your comment.
Since there is probably some warm-up lag between air temp and ice melt, perhaps something definitive could be said if 5 years from now, we’re still in a cooling phase and the sea is still rising by anything above statistical noise.
re: anthropomorphic – I’m supposed to know that. LOL

@Julie L !
Ah! the rewards of reading all the comments.
I needed a chuckle, too. Hope you’re feeling better, soon.
Thanks for pointing out that great typo courtesy of Hotrod.
” . . I’ve been giggling all day over the volcanic ass injection. That’s the most memorable thing I’ve seen on this blog (heck, ANY blog) in years!
😀 :D”
Yep. Memorable.
(You DO think it was a typo – don’t you? I mean he wouldn’t have done that on purpose . . . . .:D

Don’t worry. I have it on good authority that it won’t blow until 2012! 😉

“Karl Heuer (14:49:03) :
crosspatch-
the Sun has gotten ~300 degrees Kelvin hotter since it entered the Main Sequence about 4.57 Billion years ago — it will not get appreciably hotter , or more luminous until it starts burning helium – A little over 4GY in the future”
That is absolutely not true. We can find lots of references. one of the more generous gives us a billion years most give 250 to 500 million. There’s a little more detail here

And, Kasting said, a cataclysmic finale may come even sooner. As Earth becomes a global desert, carbon dioxide levels are expected to drop. At a certain level, which he and his colleagues say might be achieved in half a billion years, there would not be enough carbon dioxide to support photosynthesis, and most plants would die.
Remaining plants would not be sufficient to support a biosphere, Kasting contends. So while the entire planet might incinerated in a few billion years, or cast off into a deep freeze, it’s possible that life on Earth is already in the sunset years.
“If we calculated correctly, Earth has been habitable for 4.5 billion years and only has a half-billion years left,” Kasting said

And I have heard this same scenario from more sources. The sun is getting brighter all the time though it may not be a constant, even increase. It might increase in steps. The sun will be about 40% brighter than it is now before it starts fusing helium. Earth will have been a dead rock for billions of years before that.

Karl, more reference for you:

The Sun is not exactly constant. After some hydrogen is used up at the center, the hydrogen fusion must proceed more vigorously to provide enough pressure, and the Sun becomes slightly more luminous with time . When the Sun was young 4x109years ago, the Sun was less luminous than now by 30%

A star spends most of its time getting brighter as it ages. The Earth is about 80% through its span of time where it will be a habitable place for life. It is probably much beyond that, maybe 95% through its span if time where it is a habitable place for life like us.

Jokes aside…. It must be an interesting time for vulcanologist’s at the moment…. It’s not everyday that the site of ancient super volcano becomes peculiarly active…. And of course, after the 2004 tsunami, I don’t really count the probability of possibilities out anymore… as long as they are scientifically feasible that is. Catastrophic AGW is bizarre.. No science nor observation to back it up… But a super volcano… We’ve had ’em before, we can have ’em again.
It’d just be that we’d be the unluckiest generation around if it happened now, ’tis all.

VG (01:26:04) :
looks like NCEP has suddenly lost interest in comparing past snow cover LOL
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/snow/ anyone know why?

E.M. Smith – …”And TWC is saying midwest to N.E. USA to get noze froze Real Soon Now…” Any chance it will hold until 20 January and cause a major freeze at the inauguration? Frostbite for the true believers would be an interesting diversion and perhaps lead to some realistic policies.

“Almost like it was a 30 year weather cycle”
PDO

Sorry if I’m just one of these evil sceptics that tries to calm down …serious things, but in an American lifetime the possibility that this will happen shold be 1/6000 if it happens every 600 000 years… Or? If it’s much more likely that this happens now, because it has not happen in a long time, let’s say 1 in 1000 during an Americans lifetime. But all Americans will not die from a super volcano. (The risk of dying may be 1 in 100 000.)
At the same time the risk to die in a car accident for a man/woman in the Western world should be approximately 1 in 500 (in Sweden) and probably 1 in 200 in Greece (although this isn’t destroy nature and force ppl from their homes).
Ah! Evil me (if the 1 in 1000 occurs).

MA:

At the same time the risk to die in a car accident for a man/woman in the Western world should be approximately 1 in 500 (in Sweden) and probably 1 in 200 in Greece

Furthermore, your chance of dying from any cause within the next 70 years is approximately 1 in 1.
Doesn’t worry me in the slightest.

UAH jan 2009 for now seems to find jan 2008 level. Its not that likely (?) that this would hold the rest of the month as it would be the biggest fall in UAH global temperatures in one month for several years. But still, interesting to follow.
Graphic:
http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/attachments/janfirst.gif
Source: http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/

Let’s try a reverse form of psychology, to see if it helps our alarmist friends;
TEST:
Q) Why are polar bears endangered?
A) Because their population is increasing???
—————
Q) Why is CO2 a toxic pollutant?
A) Because it’s essential to life???
—————
Q) Why are glaciers retreating?
A) Because of 10,000 years of global warming???
—————
Q) Why will Florida soon be under water?
A) Because of 1-2 mm rise in sea level???
—————
Q) Why is warmth bad?
A) Because it sustains life???
(Note: Look inside an actual GREENhouse.)
—————
FAILURE.
Whenever you alarmists want to SNAP out of whatever trance you are in, please feel free to join the rest of us in reality.
CONCLUSION.
There is no impending climatic dooms day. You are sheep being tended to by deceptive and delusional shepherds. Man is {prophecizing} through the use of computers. Got that?
Instead of wasting hundreds of billions of $dollars in climate research, why don’t we spend the money on realtime pestilence… cancer and disease.
And the lunacy continues…

WUWT and Climate Audit currently have about half the votes. Pharyngula, about half of what’s left. Real Climate is declining…
Don’t forget to vote…
I hope Hansen doesn’t get ahold of thos numbers.

Frank Lansner
WE know the reasons that Hansen wants to bolster the GISS figures, but how is he explaining ‘scientifically’ why his graphs are going in completely the opposite direction to everyone elses?
tonyB

I went on a Chevy Chase family vacation to Yellowstone in 2005. I had last been there in 1965 with my parents. After 40 years, what surprised me the most (outside of a lackluster morning glory pool and dry mudpots) was the absolute devastation of Mammoth Hot Springs by the large numbers of unrestrained elk invading the Springs. They were there as we toured and approached within ten feet of us. I asked the available Park Ranger why they didn’t do something about them. He said regulations prohibited them from interfering with the wildlife (shortened abridged version). Yellowstone National Park is in greater of being destroyed by environmental wackos with fuzzy notions of Yogi and Bubba than by vulcanism.

It seems that the glacier at Mt. St Helens has not been named. I propose that this large and growing glacier be named Glacier Gore.

“Does anyone have any news about the glacier on Mt St. Helens?”
The two arms (east and west) merged last summer. Once in a while the CVO will post pictures here.
Currently there is a series of pictures for comparison.

Can we do anything about super volcanoes?
May seem like a dumb question, but perhaps it isnt.
Presumably a super volcano blows when it builds up a certain energy level, which is too much for the crust above it to hold back. That energy level builds up over thousands and thousands of years, so when it blows, it gives off a massive amount of energy in an eruption.
But what if we put lots of geothermal powerstations on these volcanos? That would take away some of the energy that is building up there. If you were able to take enough energy away, then in theory, as long as you take it away from the right place, the volcano shouldnt blow.
And it would produce a lot of cheap energy as a by-product.
Can someone tell me if I am talking rubbish here?
It seems to me that at the very least, an eruption could be delayed if you take away some of the volcano’s energy. Maybe by only a short time, but I would quite like every extra second I could get thank you.

TonyB
I hope when everybody can see that there is no global warming people will want answers. I hope every paper wil be turned. I hope Hansen and everybody else with “Bad Karma” will be revealed to the world for what they are.
I hope for full justice in court. If Hansen and others have something to hide, only then do i understand their fever like GW claims. I see desperation.

Ooops!
After some fact-checking, I need to revise that earlier post:
1. It should be “Continental US”
2. It depends on one’s definition of “Active”. There are two cities with volcanoes within their limits, but from what I’ve read, one is considered “extinct”.

crosspatch:
The Sun is expected to reach its hottest surface temperature (~5900K) in ~3GY (7.5GY age +/- .3). After that it will cool.
At that time the luminosity is estimated to be 26% higher than today, based on a 70% proto-Sol ignition Luminosity
Funny thing that,
4.57 GYa at ignition, Sol was somewhere betwen .7 and 1.07 times as luminous, depending on what paper you read concerning solar evolution, and how to resolve the warm young earth with a 70% as luminous Sun. Some theorists posit a huge mass loss early-on , some posit an ignition luminosity of 85% that of present, and some 70%
IF we take the middle road, which is just as valid as the others, that gives us an increase in luminosity of 15% relative to today’s luminance. That works out to 3.2% per GY (15%/4.56GY).
At that rate it would take 3GY to approach the +10% flux limit proposed by some scientist to result in a highly water vapor saturated atmosphere, and stratospheric loss of water — losing the oceans to space, assumptions largely based on the same science used to construct the highly accurate (cough, snicker) climate forecasting models used by the IPCC and other charlatans.

Jeff Alberts:
The only ones I know of are Mt. Tabor in Portland ,Oregon, and Pilot Butte in Bend, Oregon.
Bend is not a place I’d want to live. It’s located between the Sisters and the Newberry Caldera — both active areas.

Lol, you’re right Steve, I do watch too many movies. La Brea isn’t associated with volcanism at all.

**********
Dave (14:07:22) :
Can we do anything about super volcanoes?
May seem like a dumb question, but perhaps it isnt.
Presumably a super volcano blows when it builds up a certain energy level, which is too much for the crust above it to hold back. That energy level builds up over thousands and thousands of years, so when it blows, it gives off a massive amount of energy in an eruption.
But what if we put lots of geothermal powerstations on these volcanos? That would take away some of the energy that is building up there. If you were able to take enough energy away, then in theory, as long as you take it away from the right place, the volcano shouldnt blow.
And it would produce a lot of cheap energy as a by-product.
Can someone tell me if I am talking rubbish here?
********
Not a bad idea if done on a large scale — ala Iceland. Wouldn’t have to drill to the magma — just above it would be sufficient. The amount of steam heat that generates electricity could be significant.
But if destructive elk can’t even be thinned because of the envirowackos, do you think any industrial activity would be allowed in Yellowstone? Never happen.

The curiousity of a layman wonders about all those huge volcanoes on Mars and the fact that Mars still has a molten core. What are the chances that a huge simultaneous eruptions eons ago ripped the atmosphere to shreds and are responsible for the cold dead rusty planet we have now? Mt. Olympus looks like a planet devouring monster! Maybe when Mars blew up the alien hamsters evacuated to earth and evolved into humans.