Click for larger image
Source: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html
h/t Arthur Glass
About a month ago I posted: La Nina is back…and was criticized by a few folks. Well compare the above to the image from that post below:
Click for larger image
Now the alarmists have another excuse for the ongoing cold in 2009.
The Full_Global link of the image is at:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.12.31.2008.gif
Very true 🙂
Here the full global SST:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.12.31.2008.gif
I too proclaimed La Nina and this was due to the SOI index:
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/httpdata_r/images/climate/wz_soi_weekly.png
The normal “rule” is that SOI index above 6 for 8 weeks in a row gives La Nina. Now we have had SOI > 6 in 18 weeks..!
So La Nina, better late than never.
According to NOAA, the La Nina will remain more than half of 2009.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images/glbSSTSea.gif
However, maybe not the strongest La Nina seen. But the world is now colder than when previous La Nina started.
Remember When the cold year 2008 was explained with La nina?
The thing is, during the whole warming period 1977-1998 there was many El Ninos. If the cooling we see now is caused by La Ninas, then the warmth 1977-1998 was caused by El Ninos, and not CO2/AGW.
But as many in this site is aware, the PDO seems to control ENSO tendensies. And as many also knows, the AMO+PDO index is following solar activity…
Anthony, you have made my New Year’s day!
but….but…bu….
It CAN’T be a La Nina…it just CAN’T…
😉
Jimb
What does this predict for the midwest growing season? I am a midwest farmer and have been reading your articles about climate and weather for a few months now. Good stuff.
Oh, Mary.
=====
How is El Nino/La Nina related to sunspots and tsi? Is there a direct correlation or an indirect correlation? No correlation at all?
Everything on earth is related to our Sun; I do know that. Earth would not exist without our Sun. But, are there graphs or studies that show a relationship between sunspots and the El Nino/La Nina cycles? How about PDO and AMO?
So many questions, so little time!
Carole King once sang,
“Snow is cold, rain is wet.”
However, I think that she was in climate denial.
No matter what you say, you will be lambasted.
I’m just grateful I found your website.
Happy New Year!
OT, but did someone over at NASA take exception with your sunspot post. Check out the SOHO sunspot picture. I guess we can’t say Jan 1 09 is spotless.
I could not get the world map at the Noaa site to go large.
Looks like its behind last year at this time. South America still has warm water off its western coast. Might be a little late to give the Green Nazis any bad luck.
It would have been nice to see a real cold inauguration just as they take the reins of power.
I like to look at temps in Siberia to project ours. Dec up there had lows that were 15 to 30 degrees lower than average. So far Jan is about 10 degrees higher than normal.
Long term cooling means that naturnal gas stocks will a buy at some point. Looks like it would be this winter though.
The last sentence should say “Looks like, not this year”,
What I like about the NOAA map is they decided to cut off the top part of the the globe
Can’t see the sea ice, or water temps up there. Is this normal?
Hey Anthony!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24861265-601,00.html
Snowed in Tasmania! abit in the mountains but none the less.
It is most likely La Nina.
Looks like you were exactly correct. CO2 is causing it.
Anthony,
What is the historic data on back-to-back La Nina cycles? La Nina conditions in January and February 2008 triggered a world food cries with the failure of the Asian rice crop because of intense cold. The mainstream media in the “free world” were vary careful not to report that freezing conditions caused the price of rice to increase by several hundred percent. The only accurate reporting was from the Chinese and Vietnamese Communist Party controlled newspapers. I made a post to your BLOG on this subject in March 2008:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/03/21/snow-and-storms-at-easter-in-europe-and-usa/
Here is some background information on the events in early 2008.
2008 Chinese winter storms
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Chinese_winter_storms
China’s War on Snow Havoc
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/08snow/index.htm
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/08snow/tn.htm
Review snow havoc in China early 2008
http://english.people.com.cn/96073/96078/6558811.html
Now try and find the letters “C O L D” in this New York Times report!
The World Food Crisis
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/10/opinion/10thu1.html
If a full La Nina event develops with associated crop failures, as occurred early in 2008, we need to start tracking world food prices and reporting on it.
Mike
Happy New Year to All. Here are a few graphs to supplement the post.
Weekly NINO3.4 SST Anomaly from Jan 3 1990 to Dec 24, 2008:
http://i39.tinypic.com/2qvs5e0.jpg
Weekly NINO3.4 SST Anomaly from Jan 1 2007 to Dec 24, 2008:
http://i43.tinypic.com/2ibfgwn.jpg
As you can see, we’re well into La Nina SST anomalies, but there needs to be five consecutive seasons (where a season = 3-month mean) with the SSTs below 0.5 deg C for the CPC to consider it a full-fledged La Nina in its ONI Index.
Here are a few more graphs you don’t see every day.
Note the reaction to the 1940s multiyear El Nino in the Global Nighttime Marine Air Temperature (NMAT).
http://i39.tinypic.com/2igd1mr.jpg
And in the Northern Hemisphere NMAT:
http://i44.tinypic.com/rvd4pu.jpg
Those curves don’t resemble the IPCC’s version:
http://i39.tinypic.com/10mmpeb.jpg
It’s a different data set, but still…
I covered the Met Office Historical Marine Air Temperature, version MOHMAT4.3 in a recent post:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/12/nighttime-marine-air-temperature.html
Regards
Today’s AGW Looney Tunes.
————————————————————-
Air New Zealand Flies on Engine With Jatropha Biofuel Blend
http://greeninc.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/30/air-new-zealand-flies-on-engine-with-jatropha-biofuel-blend/
“Using jatropha-based fuel still emits carbon dioxide, but the gas is typically recycled in the growing of the feedstock, so there is ostensibly no additional CO2 added to the atmosphere.”
“A growing body of research is linking the production and consumption of biofuels to increased competition for land, water and agricultural commodities. Growing crops for energy in addition to food and feed requires the cultivation of additional land.”
“There is no way around the effect unless we un-make the global economy.”
————————————————————-
The un-making of the economy of the evil Americans is the UN’s goal.
Mr. Glass,
When the original posting about the up coming La Nina was made, the threashold for an official La Nina had yet to be breached as the current averages at that time had yet to meet the -0.5 degree mark. Now they have exceeded -0.5 degrees but we are still not officially in La Nina because the 3 month moving average for La Nina has to be below -0.5 degrees for 3 consecutive overlapping 3 month periods. I believe that we will get there, but we are not there yet.
Hey there Lady La Nina
Where you been since we last seen ya?
Those azure blue robes you wear
Flowing free across the sea
Welcome in the cooler year.
Saw your brother Big Jack Frost
With giant strides the ocean crossed
His whitened fingers freeze the pane
His sparkling coat flung far and wide
Bringing snow and ice again.
Our pale sun still gently sleeps
Dreaming secrets that he keeps
A puzzle deep to tease the mind
The cyclic cause, the sure effect
The answer must be well designed!
Every day the bricks in the wall of AGW theory crumble a little more.
Dr. (not in the medical sense) Roy Spencer proposes an eye examine for AGW alarmists. There is no encroachment on the optometrist’s profession, as this test can be performed at home with no danger to one’s health.
——————————————————-
50 Years of CO2: Time for a Vision Test
January 1st, 2009 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/01/50-years-of-co2-time-for-a-vision-test/
Well, 50 years of that kind of pollution is really taking its toll. So, without further ado, here’s what 50 years of increasing levels of CO2 looks like on the Big Island:
———————————————————–
Prosperous NEW YEAR, everyone! Mahalo and Aloha.
and most recent today = 100% ceratin and strengthening rapidly
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
So the next phase of the AGW discussion will build on the distorted illogic we’re already seeing hints of. My favorite is:
“La Nina is hiding the heat!” To which we can only reply, “Where?” If heat is there it would be warm, which is the definition of “heat”, right? Its either there or its not, you can’t hide heat.
That claim is like saying that darkness is hiding the light, which is really there somewhere, you just can’t see it because its dark.
The next year or so should be fun.
Anthony,
I for one thought that your observation was not out of line. With the PDO now in a negative mode it is not that unusual for ENSO to go La Nina, to Neutral, and then back La Nina again. I would suspect that ENSO will remain in La Nina mode for at least the remainder of winter before it transitions back to neutral and perhaps goes into El Nino mode early in 2010. IMHO, the next El Nino will be short and weak, followed by another moderate La Nina for 2011.
For those who have the tools and the time, it would be interesting see what climate analogs shows for continued La Ninaesque Pacific and neutral AMO. (Drought and cold winters for the Pacific zones, increases in severe spring and summer convection for the Plains, increases in Gulf of Mexico TCs, cold and snowy Winters for the eastern 1/3rd?). Interesting times for those interested in long range forecasting.
I didn’t follow the criticism, but the NOAA report below should vindicate
the claim that LaNina has been back for at least a month, if “back” means
LaNina conditions existing, as opposed to certain criteria required to define an “episode”, three months of anomaly of at least -5, if memory serves.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
What’s the role of the La Ninas? And the difference between La Nino and La Nina.
Thank you.
I have been mulling over the “driver” question. It has occurred to me that I have not considered an enormous source of heat. Is the earth itself not a magma filled balloon? The earth’s crust is not very thick ( relatively speaking) compared to the huge volume of molten rock and metals within. It is also a huge dynamo ( magnetic field and liquid metal core). The dynamo would also be affected by the suns magnetic field which varies as well. We clearly do not have all the pieces of this puzzle. Purely speculation on my part, but one that I find interesting. Comments? Keep the abuse to a minimum, please !! :^)
“the_Butcher (10:35:11) :
What’s the role of the La Ninas? And the difference between La Nino and La Nina.”
try this link:
http://climatechange1.wordpress.com/
AllenM,
Those are not sunspots and it doesn’t look like they will develop into Sun Spots either. Spaceweather.com is reporting 0 Sun Spots.
I got banned from Tamino again, apparently for pointing out the circularity of his trend argument. I was ‘confusing’ the issue.
It will be interesting how he and RC respond if temps stay low through 2009. The trends will become quite a bit stronger with two down years.
Looks like the Central American mountain jet is going nicely also, setting up for a cool Caribbean this summer.
the_Butcher (10:35:11) :
“What’s the role of the La Ninas? And the difference between La Nino and La Nina.”
It’s El Nino and La Nina. In spanish El Nino means little boy and La Nina means little girl. When the tropical pacific ocean is dominated by warm surface temperatures it is known as El Nino and when the tropical pacific ocean is dominated cold surface temperatures it is known as La Nina. The difference the two have on our climate and weather patterns are complex. I don’t usually recommend Wiki’s where climate is concerned but try this link for a primer.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o-Southern_Oscillation
The discussion of the cooling PDO “looking” like La Nina was the original issue I think Anthony. I think you are right to call it La Nina.
Last year I too was sun-centric in my thoughts. I have read and re-read all of Leif Svalgaard’s presentations. If posters here want to keep pushing the notion that it is a quiet sun that creates the cooling then so be it. Just don’t close your mind to the exploration of our own earth’s effects. They are far more important in climate “change” than many on BOTH sides of the debate understand.
Please find the following quote from the article “Four Years After Tsunami, Coral Reefs Recovering” at the link
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/12/081227225250.htm
“On the 4th anniversary of the tsunami, this is a great story of ecosystem resilience and recovery,” said Dr, Stuart Campbell, coordinator of the Wildlife Conservation Society’s Indonesia Marine Program. “Our scientific monitoring is showing rapid growth of young corals in areas where the tsunami caused damage, and also the return of new generations of corals in areas previously damaged by destructive fishing. These findings provide new insights into coral recovery processes that can help us manage coral reefs in the face of climate change.”
I thought the 1 C degree rise in world temperatures were already destroying all the coral reefs in the world. How could there be such a rapid recovery during a time when the corals should be dying from climate change?
Go Figure.
Jeff Id (11:23:03) :
“I got banned from Tamino again, apparently for pointing out the circularity of his trend argument. I was ‘confusing’ the issue.
It will be interesting how he and RC respond if temps stay low through 2009. The trends will become quite a bit stronger with two down years”.
Jeff,
Let Tamino boil in his own fat.
He can not be helped and it does not help anyone to provide him with an extended platform via WUWT. It’s simply too frustrating.
Just for the record the ENSO is still neutral, the threshold for La Niña conditions is a NINO3 SST index of -0.8. Currently this is -0.68 so still a way to go yet. As I mentioned in the autumn a return to a La Niña of the strength of last year was extremely small, and that is still true. Compare the Pacific chart of this time last year to the maps above. http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomp.1.3.2008.gif
The standard deviation of the Nino indices is very high at this time of year. The current anomalies are only around 0.5 standard deviations away from average. That falls a long way short of La Nina.
All one had to do in the Midwest was look at the thermometer and the snowplow bill to know something is going on. After the harshest winter in recent memory for 2007-08, the 2008-09 version is even worse.
It’s snowing again right now, in fact.
Yay.
“Bill Marsh (11:21:10) :
AllenM,
Those are not sunspots and it doesn’t look like they will develop into Sun Spots either. Spaceweather.com is reporting 0 Sun Spots.”
True, this is big nothing, it will fade away, I’m sure.
I personally believe El Nino and La Nina both are results of under sea volcanic activity. Decreased activity – La Nina, increased activity – El Nino. Just my two cents. Neither would have anything to do with sunspot activity. Also, recently it has been brought up that increased undersea volcanic activity in the North pole has been a contributing factor in decreased sea ice. With a leveling off of activity, the Ice returns.
In my opinion, if you remember Einstein’s quote ” Look for the obvious answers first, because the universe has order”.
I just looked at the 01/01/16:00 SOHO sun, and apart from spotless, the 3 or 4 longtime dead pixels seem to be gone, too. Are they fixed, or have they been
hansenizedprocessed out?hengav,
Personally, I believe everyone has a little corner of the map, and sees the whole picture through the little bit they’ve got ahold of. The CO2 crowd only sees greenhouse gas effects. The solar researchers only see solar minimums and maxiums and Milankovic cycles. The ocean cycle group only sees those, etc. etc. The astrophysicist sees the effects of coronal holes, magnetic flux, solar wind, and cosmic rays.
I believe that the real truth is a blend of all these things – they ALL have parts to play in the roller coaster ride that is the Earth’s climate, to varying degrees. It might actually be the truth that greenhouse gas emissions have moderated what would otherwise have been a cooling trend, a trend that has now caught up to, and overtaken those moderating effects. I am no scientist – this is a guess I’ve arrived at by reading all the available materials to the best of my abilities (I have to admit I start to glaze over when maths get involved). I find the correlations between sunspot activity, coronal ejections, and climate reactions to those events compelling.
In my opinion, this blog represents a fantastic resource for the inquiring mind that simply wants to know the truth, and has no particular stake in wherever the truth may lie. I also believe that everyone who reads this blog should contribute money to Anthony’s quest to audit all of the US climate stations. Good science can only be done with good data.
Happy New Year, everyone. Stay warm. 🙂
I think that’s a good point hengav,
Earth’s climate is a complex chaotic system. I would say there is certainly enough internal variability in our climate system to account for the observed temperature change without the need for external forcing.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/4061092/Greenhouse-gases-could-have-caused-an-ice-age-claim-scientists.html
Is this a joke? Or are they serious? I couldn’t make this up if I tried.
David Ball (10:38:45) :
I have been mulling over the “driver” question. It has occurred to me that I have not considered an enormous source of heat. Is the earth itself not a magma filled balloon? The earth’s crust is not very thick ( relatively speaking) compared to the huge volume of molten rock and metals within. It is also a huge dynamo ( magnetic field and liquid metal core). The dynamo would also be affected by the suns magnetic field which varies as well. …
The crust seems to be an efficient insulator, otherwise we wouldn’t have permafrost conditions, and frostline depths to consider in building foundations. The crust’s thinness after billions of years cooling is further evidence. The sun’s magnetic field, etc. affect the shape of the earth’s field, but I don’t see it being strong enough to affect the earth’s core. The number-cruncher folks on the site could help with that.
RE: Phil (13:06:46)
The key statement in the article is “It happened naturally in the past, but the wrong use of technology could make it happen again.”
See it? Whether it gets hotter, colder, or the whole world and everything on it turns a nice pleasing shade of purple is irrelevant to these people: Its their SOLUTION that they are desperately trying to sell. This “solution” is their goal – not control of an entire planets’ climate, which is (presently) a laughable endeavor.
The “solution”? The destruction of the entire Western economy and way of life.
hengav, I think you will find ocean circulation mitigating changes in global temps created by the sun
“On the 4th anniversary of the tsunami, this is a great story of ecosystem resilience and recovery,” said Dr, Stuart Campbell, coordinator of the Wildlife Conservation Society’s Indonesia Marine Program. “
“For all that, nature is never spent:
There lives the dearest freshness, deep down things….”
–G.M. Hopkins
Ou of concern for easily offended spirits, I’ve left out the theological truth Hopkins draws from this resilience of nature
Jeff, you should place a prominent banner on your site – Banned by Tamino. It would be a bit like the posters for salacious movies in the early part of the last century: Banned in New York, or wherever it was. Yes folks, this is the real thing, this is hot stuff, they got so excited they banned it.
Wear it with pride!
cool phase
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation
http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/
Just saw this on freerepublic.com: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2009/01/01/nasas-hansen-obama-use-global-warming-redistribute-wealth
It is a link on James Hansen’s letter to Barack and the Mrs. on a carbon tax redistribution scheme. Eco-socialism finally admitted as a reason for carbon worries.
As I was saying:
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2009/01/01/nasas-hansen-obama-use-global-warming-redistribute-wealth
How long before we get a “big mother” of a La Nina – as a counterpart to the 1998 El Nino?
BTW: Wasn’t increasing El Nino’s a core prediction of the warmists?
I agree with anyone who says that multiple overlapping factors are at play, including C02 and other GHG’s along with solar & ENSO (and ?? that we haven’t noticed yet?).
I have a question: IRI has a “probabilistic ENSO forecast” at http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/figure3.html, along with an “Average Historical Probability” line. I couldn’t tell from their explanation page what they base their historical probabilities on. Past conditions, I assume, but how far back?
If only 30 years or so, then that line has got to be off since we’re coming out of a dominant El Nino cycle in which conditions like we have now were more likely to lead to ENSO neutral conditions than to La Nina conditions. Their archive page only goes back to 2002.
So I thought I’d ask, I didn’t spot the answer in my perusal of their site, I may have simply missed it.
Mary Hinge: Actually, the “present” weekly (centered on Wednesday December 24, 2008) NINO3.4 SST anomaly is 0.896 deg C, based on OI.v2 SST. I don’t recall that definition you used, that is, below 0.8 deg C. What’s your reference?
Phil
“Is this a joke? Or are they serious? I couldn’t make this up if I tried.”
It is an intresting spin on the Snowball Earth theory. There is a lot of evidence that 600 million or so years ago the Earth experienced total glaciation. As the story goes, the ice reflected too much sunlight for the planet to thaw. The freeze was so intense that even water vapor was frozen into the ice caps. With no precipitation, volcanic induced atmospheric CO2 built up into the atmosphere until there was enough of a greenhouse effect to start a thawing process that lasted about 1000 years. During that thawing process, rain again washed the CO2 from the atmosphere which settled on the surface. This is the explanation for cap carbonate rock sitting above glacial til in low lattitude deserts. You can google Snowball Earth if you want to learn more.
Mary Hinge and david,
Since I know that you are monitoring this post, I thought you might want to know about another here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/31/end-the-year-on-an-up-note/
If you dropped by there and said a couple of words of congratulations to Anthony and his team, it would go a long way toward your PR. Also you two have contributed to the success of this blog, so your presence there is missed.
Mike Bryant
The Multi-Variate ENSO Index (MEI) argues that we’re in La Nina again.
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/rank.html
Speaking of (potential) internal forcing.
http://www.seablogger.com/?p=12524 provides an interesting story on the current seismic activity effecting the Yellow Stone Volcano.
If this baby blows we really have a problem.
Anthony: ” Ending the year on an up note” ?????
To win an argument and be able to say: “I told you so” and then to suffer the dire consequences of a colder world sounds more like Pyrrhic victory.
La Nina may be good news for global temps in 2009 but in NE Australia it will herald cyclones, floods, river run off into the sea, coral bleaching and everything else that will cause the death of the Great Barrier Reef.
Next to the Arctic Sea Ice melt, the GBR is the AGW movements’ biggest star that they are waiting for to die to prove their theory right. Stand by for media reports of forthcoming catastrophies.
Looks like Cryoshere has a problem, but it seems you can get a comparison with Jan 01, 2009:
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=12&fd=20&fy=2008&sm=01&sd=01&sy=2009
“Tom Gall (08:25:47) :
Looks like its behind last year at this time. South America still has warm water off its western coast.”
Come and take a bath at the beach here in western South America. NOAA´s passion for oranges and reds is evident. During 98 el Nino here in Lima City we had 32°C, now Max.Temp. is 24°C and Min.Temp is 18°C; sea temperature probably 16°C.
Compare NOAA´s reds and oranges with BBC Weather blues.
More Arctic Outflows for Canada’s Wet (West) Coast and the US Northwest 😉 That we are in a cold phase of the PDO and back to back La Nina’s is just one more chalk mark for Solar forcing (with moderation and delay caused by the oceans). Once the Atlantic goes cold … and the last time I read anything on the subject it could be in a couple of years … we will get to see what the Arctic Ice Sheet looks like during a Grand Minimum. I hope Western Europe remembers how to deal with months of ice :D.
The only question I have is will the Columbia Ice Fields have enough time to even return to what I remember as a kid (between Banff and Jasper, Alberta, Canada) before its over in a few decades. From that famous picture of that French town at the toe of a ice flow in the Alps during the last Grand Minimum (and with Alaska’s Glaciers already growing again), it should be possible.
GISS Reporting to be Delayed for Data Quality Control.
On December 16, 2008 Dr. Hansen made the following announcement:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
2008-12-16: Please see our preliminary discussion (http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/) of this year’s data.
Starting this month, the data will be held, investigated, and potential problems reported to and resolved with the data provider before making them public. However, as we noted in the “Data Quality Control” section of our 1999 paper: We would welcome feedback from users on any specific data in this record.
A few station data from Canada were reported as potentially incorrect and subsequently removed by NOAA.
Do we know which Canadian stations were incorrect?
Mike
Kevin Quickberg,
What Hansen was saying was that we should tax carbon rather than set up a cap & Trade system, which would only serve the interests of financiers making millions for some at the expense us common folk. If it is an either/or deal, I would much prefer to simply be taxed and have my money go to the public treasury which would be spent on public projects rather than for my money to go to buy green energy that I do not want. I do not want to pay taxes either, but hey I am a realist and taxes have to come from somewhere.
King of Cool
You’re right on the money!
see http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/01/02/2457903.htm
Chris Schoneveld (14:35:48) :
Anthony: ” Ending the year on an up note” ?????
To win an argument and be able to say: “I told you so” and then to suffer the dire consequences of a colder world sounds more like Pyrrhic victory.
Chris, I very respectfully disagree. This is not about winning an argument.This is about trying to discover truth…and then facing up to it. We appear to be headed into some seriously cold times….if so, then most here understand that there will be serious consequences…that may include a great many deaths…if we recognized what is coming, then we have a chance to prepare for the changing [colder!] conditions…if we insist on spending all of our resorces fighting non-existant warming, then more people will suffer…unnecessarily. It is not about who wins an argument…it is probably about who lives and who dies……cdl
Johnnyb (15:23:21)
‘I would much prefer to simply be taxed and have my money go to the public treasury which would be spent on public projects rather than for my money to go to buy green energy that I do not want. I do not want to pay taxes either, but hey I am a realist and taxes have to come from somewhere.’
Why settle for either one?
If our US, State and Local governments need more money, they could raise taxes in a number of ways with out creating a hold new tax system that would rival income tax in collections, size and bureaucracy!
All those green jobs that would be in federal, state, local governments, company compliance officers, green lawyers, green tax accounts and green lobbyist all of which DO NOT CREATE WEALTH.
I am not a religious person but the back to back flippin bleepin cold and then warm fronts coming off the Pacific coast has GOT to be someone upstairs trying to screw with our pet theories. First we get a warm November, then freeze our butts off in December, then during the Christmas break we get below freezing/negative temps and blizzards followed by wild and warm pineapple belt winds and rains, followed by another 1/2 foot of snow, followed by another warm blow, followed by another blizzard, etc. Is somebody trying to free the Jewish people from Egypt again or what????
Its global cooling folks and here are the reasons…wait…nope, its global warming because the ice is melti…uh…no, its global cooling because 70 inches of snow fell in less than a month in the…er…no, its global warming because the snow is melting and we have a spring thaw with floo…em…a…wrong again, its global cooling because…my head hurts and I have to crawl up on top of the roof to brush snow off the dish.
King of Cool (14:42:57) :
PeterA (15:47:54) :
Of course the MSM will go for coral reef stories, but what really annoys is that they report what suits them “Argghh! it must be global warming again”.
WHat the research actually reported was “Calcification increases linearly with increasing large-scale sea surface temperature but responds nonlinearly to annual temperature anomalies.”
The researchers speculate that temperature stress (seasonal fluctuations) and lower dissolved mineral content in the water may have something to do with it: “The causes of the decline remain unknown;….” Link to abstract below.
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/323/5910/116
“Jeff Id (11:23:03) :
I got banned from Tamino again, apparently for pointing out the circularity of his trend argument. I was ‘confusing’ the issue.
It will be interesting how he and RC respond if temps stay low through 2009. The trends will become quite a bit stronger with two down years.”
As much as we would like it to be, this just isn’t an issue for “them”.
They have wiggled around this repeatedly already…saying it’s just a temporary condition, it’s a mask, etc. etc.
and then when all else fails, they throw the weather/climate dismissal into the mix.
Sad but true…
This needs a lawsuit, or someone with tons of funding to go loud and large in the press, and call out the specific arguments.
JimB
“Mary Hinge (12:30:46) :
Just for the record the ENSO is still neutral, the threshold for La Niña conditions is a NINO3 SST index of -0.8. Currently this is -0.68 so still a way to go yet. As I mentioned in the autumn a return to a La Niña of the strength of last year was extremely small, and that is still true. Compare the Pacific chart of this time last year to the maps above. http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomp.1.3.2008.gif”
“There are NO AMERICANS in BAGHDAD…NONE!”
Sound familiar?
JimB
Pamela: I don’t think we are witnessing the Plagues of Egypt, just evidence that God has a sense of humor. “Foolish humans, think you understand what I have created? Explain this!”
Or perhaps the Uncertainty Principle writ large.
Too bad we don’t know the daily weather just before the LIA set in.
‘As I mentioned in the autumn a return to a La Niña of the strength of last year was extremely small, and that is still true’
JimB,
No one said this current La Nina event was as strong as 2007’s. ENSO is anything but neutral. We are currently is a La Nina that followed in the wake of a Moderate-Strong La Nina from Autumn of 2007. It will probably be a weak La Nina, but it is still a La Nina, never-the-less.
Mike Bryant (14:11:17) :
Hmmmmm I wonder why david and Mary Hinge won’t answer me?
“It will be interesting how he and RC respond if temps stay low through 2009. The trends will become quite a bit stronger with two down years.”
What will be even more interesting is GISS adjustments. As Hansen uses averages to fill missing values (and GISS seems to have a large number of missing values in their input data), calculated averages using recent higher temperatures tended to boost past temperatures. With every passing month of cooler temperatures, past temperatures will get adjusted downwards.
Look for Hansen to change his “adjustment” method once current temperatures begin to significantly impact his process in a downward direction.
Mary and David:
Might I make a suggestion! If you […….snip…….] find your way to NOAA CPC ENSO. They released their out look and the current and past information regarding ONI. FYI! SEE 3.4 history and modeled future projections. I read what they had to say but do not want to spoil your pleasure upon reading what NOAA thinks about it.
I personally have nothing against NOAA. That said I will say. I normally do not read their site anymore as I can get better predictions from the fortune teller down the road. So I am content to live life by taking one step into the future at a time.
For all those predicting the end of the world: As it says in an old song: Whatever will be will be. The future is not ours to see. Que Sera Sera
Reply: Please avoid direct insults to other posters
~ charles the moderator
Looks like a wet, cool Spring in the Midwest, again. Very similar to last year.
I thought this was an interesting article. It’s a feedback that may or may not be included in GCM’s and may be impacted by cycles in the Pacific.
“Plankton Cool The Southern Hemisphere” Netherlands Organization For Scientific Research (2004, November 24)
Plankton can influence the climate by producing the gas dimethyl sulphide (DMS). This gas is a source of small sulphur particles in the atmosphere, which act as condensation nuclei for the water vapour. The miniscule water drops formed in the air as a result of this, reflect the sunlight back before it reaches the Earth, causing the Earth to cool.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/11/041123172310.htm
thanks
Ed
Steamboat McGoo (13:59:35) : Wrote
As I was saying:
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2009/01/01/nasas-hansen-obama-use-global-warming-redistribute-wealth
______________________________
Hey, the Nobel Peace Prize has been somewhat tarnished recently. Why shouldn’t he go for the Prize for Economics instead ??
Mike C (14:11:11) :
Thanks. That makes a lot more sense than what the article said.
Now the alarmists have another excuse for the ongoing cold in 2009.
Let ’em, try.
Then point out the net results of the last triple El Nino (2002-2007; positive PDO) plus a double La Nina (2007-2007; negative PDO).
Then start talking oceanic cycles.
“Field evidence from the deep ocean is consistent with these laboratory conclusions, indicating that over the past 220 years there has been a 40-percent increase in average coccolith mass. Our findings show that coccolithophores are already responding and will probably continue to respond to rising atmospheric CO2….”
From this artcle:
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/17/some-plankton-thrive-with-more-co2/
So, more CO2 means more plankto, means more DMS, means more clouds, means more rain, and albedo, means we get cooler.
Is that about what they said?
Carole King once sang,
“Snow is cold, rain is wet.”
So maybe it’s time for Judy Collins to look at clouds from both sides, now.
Craig D. Lattig (16:05:44) :
“We appear to be headed into some seriously cold times….if so, then most here understand that there will be serious consequences…that may include a great many deaths”
Craig, that’s exactly my sentiment. That’s why I prefer to be wrong in my expectations (predictions) of a colder cycle to come and rather let the global warming crowd win the debate. Give me global warming any time!
Given that the met office prjected 2009 to be a warm year. Reality will be “BRRRR”.
Hi Anthony,
Thanks for this blog which is a daily read for me.
As to whether the Pacific and the tropics will cool or warm my money is on a warming event to manifest before March. I have explained my reasons at http://climatechange1.wordpress.com/2009/01/02/the-southern-oscillation-and-the-sun-2/
If there is any part of that presentation that is of interest to you please go ahead and use it. If I had an email address I would send it to you. Mine is erlathapps.com.au
You will see that I link the occurrence of a warming event to the heating of the upper troposphere by ultraviolet radiation from the sun. In other words 200hPa temperature and vertical velocity responds to a variable local ozone content and a variable level of ultraviolet radiation and it influences surface pressure and wind.
There is a consistent relationship between surface atmospheric pressure in the Pacific near Chile and sea surface temperature between 20°N and 20°S around the entire globe. Change in the latter follows change in the former. Using annualized data gets over the problem of the natural seasonal swings that depend upon the distribution of land and sea between the hemispheres.
I think this minute focus on the ENSO 3.4 multivariate index and the Pacific ocean is unhealthy. Its obscuring the bigger picture.
Our understanding of ENSO relationships must progress to the point that we link the loss of upper atmosphere cirrus to generalized tropical warming. Then, we will understand why the globe warms and cools as the cloud evaporates or forms.
Monitoring ocean temperature across the Pacific does not get us far in understanding the atmospheric dynamics that drive this phenomena. After some diligent searching I have discovered that the interaction zone between the sun and the Earth includes the upper troposphere.
I know its heresy, and people will reject the notion out of hand, but there you are.
“JimB,
No one said this current La Nina event was as strong as 2007’s. ENSO is anything but neutral. We are currently is a La Nina that followed in the wake of a Moderate-Strong La Nina from Autumn of 2007. It will probably be a weak La Nina, but it is still a La Nina, never-the-less.”
I think you missunderstand my position….I have no problem with the La Nina…but others have claimed that we are NOT in a La Nina event.
JimB
“Change” and “Yes we can”….siunds more familiar! 😉
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml
Mike Davis (18:44:58) :
……I can get better predictions from the fortune teller down the road. So I am content to live life by taking one step into the future at a time.
For all those predicting the end of the world: As it says in an old song: Whatever will be will be. The future is not ours to see. Que Sera Sera
Thnaks Mike for explaining the fountain of your logic and where your references come from!
The reason is I wasn’t on line since the last post! You were right though. I haven’t had time recently to go through all the posts, the La Nina (or still lack of one which is more accurate at the moment) caught my eye. I have rectified my ommision and would like to wish you yourself a great 2009.
Here’s hoping for more discussions!
How’s this for a prediction:
2009 will see a net global cooling about 1/2 of 2008 -from which NOAA, NASA, and Hadley will adjust into a net warming of 10% over 2007. In Dec 2009, all three institutions will headline that 2009 was the Warmest Year Since 1998, and the Third Warmest Year since 1850. People from Moscow to Sidney will shiver in disbelief when informed of such news.
Old Construction Worker,
I agree with you, I do not like the government taxing and I think that these green jobs are a joke, but as I understand what Hansen was suggesting was much more simple that the cap and trade system which has been proposed. What I understand Hansen saying is that carbon sources like coal and oil should be taxed at the point of extraction, which would eliminate the need for a complex carbon trading market and carbon accounting bureacracy, but the thing is that you know that the government is going to do something stupid, and I believe the least stupid of the 2 alternatives would be to do just as Hansen says and tax at the source.
If we had a sane and sober government, they would offset these taxes by eliminating payroll and income taxes for the folks making less than $250,000 a year. For the $750 billion dollar bailout, we could have built a National High Speed rail network equal to Europe’s which would greatly decrease our oil damand as many regional air carriers would be made obsolete, and people would have less need to drive their cars. Remember, that if we sipped gas like our European kin America would have no need to import a drop of oil.
Nothing is perfect, but if you believe in Global Warming, which I do not, then taxing at the source is the most effective and simple option. It cuts the money-elite out of the equation and incourages investment in real solutions like nuclear power instead of projects like Windfarms that were designed to enrich the owner at the rate payers expense for an inferior power generator.
@Mary Hinge
To me it looks like Bob Tisdale didn’t ask about the source for your numbers as such, but the source for invoking(-) 0.8 as level for designating La Ninja conditions rather than (-) 0.5 as others have employed.
When using the search-service at the Australian page you linked to, I did not find information on a particular level defining La Ninja.
I assume BT can fill in.
Cassanders
In Cod we trust
El Ninos and La Ninas take a long time to play out. Typically it takes 6-8 months after the trend starts developing until the El Nino or La Nina reaches its peak and then it is another 4-6 months before it goes back to fully neutral.
About 80% of the time, the trend starts developing in May, June or July and reaches a peak in November, December or January. It used to be called “the Christmas child”.
This La Nina didn’t start developing until September or October, 2008. It also started slowly, temps were too close to neutral until early December to start thinking about a non-typical timeline La Nina developing. It looked like this winter be neutral for the ENSO.
But the trend has continued strenthening, we are getting the typical La Nina cold waves/nodes which move across the Pacific with the Trade Winds. The colder sub-surface ocean temperatures in the region are well-below normal and rising up to the surface over the past few months.
(hopefully, the last chart in these animations will start working soon.)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml
We’ll have to watch to see if the trend continues because the ENSO can “change its mind” sometimes mid-stream. If it does continue strenthening, sea surface temps will drop well into the official La Nina territory (the late December ones are probably already there) and it will not reach its peak until February, March or April.
What happens after that, noone can really know. It could go into neutral territory over the summer and start up an El Nino trend afterward. It could stay negative for an extended period of time although we have not had a 2 or 3 year La Nina in a long, long time.
Water vapour is the most important green house gas followed by methane. The third most important greenhouse gas is CO2, and it does not correlate well with global warming or cooling either; in fact, CO2 in the atmosphere trails warming which is clear natural evidence for its well-studied inverse solubility in water: CO2 dissolves in cold water and bubbles out of warm water. The equilibrium in seawater is very high, making seawater a great ‘sink’; CO2 is 34 times more soluble in water than air is soluble in water.
Correlation is not causation to be sure. The causation has been studied, however, and while the radiation from the sun varies only in the fourth decimal place, the magnetism is awesome. As I understand it, the hypothesis of the Danish National Space Center goes as follows:
Quiet sun → reduced magnetic and thermal flux = reduced solar wind → geomagnetic shield drops → galactic cosmic ray flux → more low-level clouds and more snow → more albedo effect (more heat reflected) → colder climate
Active sun → enhanced magnetic and thermal flux = solar wind → geomagnetic shield response → less low-level clouds → less albedo (less heat reflected) → warmer climate
That is how the bulk of climate change might work, coupled with (modulated by) sunspot peak frequency there are cycles of global warming and cooling like waves in the ocean. When the waves are closely spaced, the planets warm; when the waves are spaced farther apart, the planets cool.
Using a box of air in a Copenhagen lab, physicists traced the growth of clusters of molecules of the kind that build cloud condensation nuclei. These are specks of sulphuric acid on which cloud droplets form. High-energy particles driven through the laboratory ceiling by exploded stars far away in the Galaxy – the cosmic rays – liberate electrons in the air, which help the molecular clusters to form much faster than climate scientists have modeled in the atmosphere. That may explain the link between cosmic rays, cloudiness and climate change.
The ultimate cause of the solar magnetic cycle may be cyclicity in the Sun-Jupiter centre of gravity. We await more on that. In addition, although the post 60s warming period is over, it has allowed the principal green house gas, water vapour, to kick in with humidity, clouds, rain and snow depending on where you live to provide the negative feedback that scientists use to explain the existence of complex life on Earth for 550 million years. The planet heats and cools naturally and our gasses are the thermostat. Check the web site of the Danish National Space Center.
Keeping in mind that windmills are hazardous to birds, be wary of the unintended consequences of believing the all-knowing environmental lobby groups.
I can point to about 10 people who have been bringing attention to this developing La Nina for well over a month IN THIS FORUM.
You’re behind the curve Anthony.
Anyway, I think it was Bill Illis who mentioned earlier that during El Ninos, the media and Climate Establishment always blamed AGW. But now that we have colder conditions, the ENSO are suddenly being recognised by them as the cause. Right you are Bill Illis!
The extreme weather is what we get from cooling not warming. Think about it; the evidence is there. A summer beach is wide and fine and a winter beach is steep and coarse. What is the reason for that? The higher energy waves of winter storms carry off the fine sand to build offshore bars. The gentler summer waves on average, return the fine sand to the beach.
On the climate scale, colder is more vigourous because the differentials between north and south are are steeper. I mean that more cold northern air, mixes with warm southern air with more vigour and the result is nasty tornados. During the Pleistocene the climatic belts were compressed toward the equator and one consequence was high winds blowing for long periods in lower latitudes. The evidence is in the Sief dunes of the Sahara that formed then and are completely out of equilibrium with todays climate. Seif dunes are hundreds of Km long and some are well over 100 metres high. Don’t believe in Global Warming? Look for them on Google Earth. Be careful what you wish for.
I recently read at ICECAP that
7 of the last ENSOs have been La Ninas, only 4 have been El Ninos.
Recall how Gore said 10 years ago that the globe was entering a stage of stronger and stronger El Ninos, with La Ninas disappearing, all this due to AGW. Poor Al was way off again.
What I find just as interesting is the ‘Blue-ing’ of the northern half of the Atlantic!
Compare the pic above with this on of Dec 11th:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.12.11.2008.gif
Frans Manns,
Very good points. I tried to convey the exact same message over the years to the Alarmists to no avail. I even pointed out the rather obvious evidence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Europe sees much more extreme and disturbed weather when this oscillation is in negative or the cold mode. Europe actually saw some of its most extreme weather patterns during the coldest years of the LIA (see 1666 drought heatwave for the UK and the follow-up frigid winter in 1666/67).
Mary Hinge (03:39:32)
I suppose it’s all a matter of interpretation but as nino3 and nino3.4 are negative I would still call it a weak La Nina.The reason being that often we interpret anomaly lines as a definite line of transition. They are however only a guideline IMHO.
http://tinyurl.com/9leh9a
And may you and your own have a safe and happy year ahead.
evanjones (23:22:41) :
Carole King once sang,
“Snow is cold, rain is wet.”
So maybe it’s time for Judy Collins to look at clouds from both sides, now.
For the alarmists: (Forgot the artist)
Listen to the rythym of the falling rain, telling me just what a fool I’ve been.
Fran Manns:
Good points on both posts.
I would like to place this information on a couple of other sites as I like the way you describe the situation.
Mary:
It all depends on who you get your information from and who you personally belive!
The ONI may well show a negative temp. below the defined threshold for LA-NINA but the other determining factor has to do with amount of time required before claiming LA-NINA. As with solar cycles this event can only be observed after all requirements are met. So! acording to current ageed policy it is to early to call this event as having occured.
Fran Manns, Ph.D., P.Geo. (Ontario) (05:51:39) :
On the climate scale, colder is more vigourous because the differentials between north and south are are steeper. I mean that more cold northern air, mixes with warm southern air with more vigour and the result is nasty tornados.
The energy comes from the warm air not the cold. Likewise hurricanes form as a result of the heat not the cold!
sorry, off the topic comment, feel free not to post.
Johnnyb (05:19:39)
‘…..but the thing is that you know that the government is going to do something stupid, and I believe the least stupid of the 2 alternatives would be to do just as Hansen says and tax at the source.’
The Question
Would the government eliminate one their income stream in favor of a different income stream?
Remember, the end user of any good or service pays all taxes related to that good or service. Personally, I would prefer a national consumption tax and eliminate all business and payroll taxes so every time you purchase an item you are reminded how much money it takes to run the federal government. But that well never happen. Why? It would take power away from the politicians.
Sunspot/La Nina relationship? Both have a butterfly pattern centered along the equator of their respective habitats. The only difference is that the Sun has a Monarch and the Earth has a Pipevine butterfly. Must mean something.
Gene Tracker
Fran Manns, Ph.D., P.Geo. (Ontario) (05:39:09) :
Quiet sun → reduced magnetic and thermal flux = reduced solar wind → geomagnetic shield drops → galactic cosmic ray flux → more low-level clouds and more snow → more albedo effect (more heat reflected) → colder climate
Active sun → enhanced magnetic and thermal flux = solar wind → geomagnetic shield response → less low-level clouds → less albedo (less heat reflected) → warmer climate
The main flaw in the argument [there are some smaller ones too] is that the crucial link in the chains [the albedo] is observed not to vary with the solar cycle: http://www.leif.org/research/albedo.png [graph from Palle et al.]
Re: David Ball’s magma question.
I have previously crunched the numbers on heat escaping from the earths surface. I don’t have the calculations handy, but suffice it to say the the total energy contribution to our temperature is very small.
The bottom line is that the earths crust is a much better insulator than the earths atmosphere, so we get little net effect. The total energy flux from the earth was in the milliwatts range, if I remember correctly.
J Berry (07:38:02) :
What does this predict for the midwest growing season? I am a midwest farmer and have been reading your articles about climate and weather for a few months now. Good stuff.
See the following. Sorry, most current data I could find. It doesn’t look good (unless you use the options market).
http://www.csrl.ars.usda.gov/WEWC/ENSOAG-yldeffects.aspx
After analysis, these data combined with other data (withheld by intent) suggest highest yield reductions are associated with concomitant -PDO and sunspot maxima. Estimated to occur ~2012-13. Get it while the gittin’s good.
Re previous post: Just to be clear, the paragraph rearranged when submitted and -PDO should be read as “negative” PDO.
Phil, I thought it was when the two air masses met that things got interesting, ie. more violent/energetic, proportional to the temperature and probably pressure differentials.
Perhaps of interest to weather watchers are the current increasing negative north atlantic oscillations, in combination with a strengthening LaNina.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html
http://www.cep.rutgers.edu/~oman/NAO.htm
Chris Schoneveld (00:33:37) :
Craig, that’s exactly my sentiment. That’s why I prefer to be wrong in my expectations (predictions) of a colder cycle to come and rather let the global warming crowd win the debate. Give me global warming any time!
Chris-thank you for the reply and the clarificaiton. I wish it was ONLY about the debate…with only reputations and funding at risk. A colder climate is a BAD THING! Warmer is much, much better. We agree.
Unfortunately, we are in a ‘witch burnig’ phase of history. By that, I mean that their are those who see an oppertunity to creat panic, with the goal of grabbing power and wealth. A warmer climate furthers their goals. I have pondered this for several months. I wish I had an answer. What I do see is that a climatic minimum will probably last on the order of 25 years. The changes propossed for our system of government will have an indefinate impact…we are still living with the political consequences of the Roosevelt administration. Given that choice…well, I won’t live to see either outcome…but I would rather my grandkids live thru a cold spell than try and live in the society that is being proposed by our progressive brethern. Best Wishes for the New Year. cdl
Mary Hinge: Thanks, I found it. The threshold you mentioned is listed on the Australian Bureau of Meteorology “about enso outlook” page, not the one you linked.
Cassanders, see the second paragraph on this page:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/about-ENSO-outlooks.shtml
Fran Manns, Ph.D., P.Geo. (Ontario)
“The evidence is in the Sief dunes of the Sahara that formed then and are completely out of equilibrium with todays (sic) climate.”
————————————————————–
I believe that what is, or is not, in, or out, of equilibrium of today’s climate is wholly within the province of Nature.
Bob Tisdale,
You tracked down Mary Hinge’s reference to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology standard. The NOAA uses different criteria, which
encompasses a larger area of ocean and different temp anomaly threshold.
“The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) is a three month running mean of NOAA
ERSST.v2 SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region (5N-5S, 120-170W), based
on the 1971-2000 base period.”
I had already posted the below showing LaNina conditions currentyly exist when Mary posted her Australian ref and claimed conditions didn’t exist:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
The latest NINO3.4 is reported as -0.9C on page 5, and on page 20-21:
“The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO.”
“La Niña:characterized by a negativeONI less than or equal to -0.5°C.”
Bob Tisdale,
Here’s the missing ref to the ONI definition:
http://gcmd.nasa.gov/records/GCMD_NOAA_NWS_CPC_ONI.html
To Bob and Mary,
I think the 0.8C benchmark is better than 0.5C.
It seems to me that a trend moving up to +/-0.5C doesn’t indicate the trend will be sustained. The indices often moves to 0.5C, or 0.6C or 0.7C and then suddenly reverses and goes in the other direction just as often as it continues developing at these levels. As the number goes higher, it is more likely to turn into a temperature affecting event.
In counting the El Ninos and La Ninas, I have found myself just ignoring the ones which don’t get +/- 0.9C.
And the global temperature impact is pretty small for a +/- 0.5C Nino anomaly; it is only +/-0.035C on global temperatures.
I’m expecting the last week of December 2008 Nino 3.4 anomaly will be over -1.0C however. (With another -0.8C to -1.0C to go before it becomes a significant event.)
Look at these two links:
http://www.cipca.org.pe/cipca/nino/nino/feni%F1o.htm
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/climate1500ad/ch32.txt
a lot of Ninos in the 19th century.
And 18 century to 19 century temperatures:
http://www.giurfa.com/lima.jpg
in Lima City, South America.
La Nina may cause cool weather in temperate regions, but causes heat and drought in the Southwest.
San Antonio, Texas is currently under exceptional drought.
The worst possible.
Link to the US Drought Monitor:
http://drought.unl.edu/DM/DM_south.htm
Glenn: Thanks for all the references, but I had already covered the CPC definition in my first comment on this thread and posted graphs of the most current OI.v2 SST based NINO3.4 SST anomalies. I was looking for Mary’s reference.
Here’s a couple more definitions:
http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/enso/ensodef.html
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/cathy.smith/best/#years
Bill Illis: If the cool pocket below the equatorial Pacific works its way up to the surface, it could get quite chilly there.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml
Regards
On geothermal contribtions:
The ice has been retreating around Greenland. Study carefully the anomaly map
http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-081228.gif
Seems to me geothermal is fairly probable. How on earth are temperatures 3 and 4 degrees up when waters leading up to there are much cooler?
Happy New Year everybody, and thanks to all who posted, and Anthony for making this all possible. It looks like some people are away for the holidays. Let’s not begrudge them a few days off. They will have plenty stuff to catch up on when they get back. Here are a few items not to get excited about. Everybody deserves a few days off.
IARC-JAXA’s latest data is December 31. They would normally have Jan 3rd preliminary data by now.
igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu hasn’t updated its dropdown menu to include 2009. Someone has already pointed out here that you can force it by specifying the dates for the two panels in the URL. E.g…
igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=01&fd=01&fy=2009&sm=01&sd=02&sy=2009
sets first month 01, first day 01, first year 2009, second month 01, second day 02, and second year 2009.
Sea Surface Temp anomalies at http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html don’t have any data for 2009 yet.
The UAH daily temps appear to have a glitch. I’ve already sent them a polite note advising that the 2009 data is overwriting the 2008 data, rather than going to a separate column. This results in 2009 temperatures being compared with 2007 temperatures. E.g. the Jan 1 ChLT temp should be approx 0.5 F warmer than the previous year. It is listed as 0.25 F cooler. Treat the numbers with caution until they get straightened out.
A Happy New Year to them too, and a thank you for their measured real data, without which real science can’t happen.
Pardon if someone has already posted this: ‘El Nino’ apellation was given to the warm phase phenomenon because of the usual Christmas arrival.
Anna:
“The ice has been retreating around Greenland. Study carefully the anomaly map
http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-081228.gif
Seems to me geothermal is fairly probable. How on earth are temperatures 3 and 4 degrees up when waters leading up to there are much cooler?”
Don’t you think if geothermal was that obvious to detect that there would be red ink all over Indonesia?
Hi Anna,
it’s an interesting theory but i don’t think there is any physical evidence for it, we would expect a lot of seismic activity if the amounts of magma required to cause even a small change in surface temperatures were being produced. This is not happening as you can see here. http://www.iris.edu/seismon/zoom/?view=eveday&lon=-26&lat=66
Good to see a bit of thinking outside the box though 🙂
Mary Hinge (13:39:51) :
“it’s an interesting theory but i don’t think there is any physical evidence for it, we would expect a lot of seismic activity if the amounts of magma required to cause even a small change in surface temperatures were being produced. This is not happening as you can see here. http://www.iris.edu/seismon/zoom/?view=eveday&lon=-26&lat=66
Good to see a bit of thinking outside the box though :-)”
Anna seemed to be wondering about geothermal, which is not necessarily detectable seismically. Smokers are an example. Although her map does raise the eyebrows in relation to temp anamolies vs areas of geothermal activity, my first reaction was to realize that geothermal is deep under ocean, and with ocean currents would not show up directly over geothermal areas, nor would a small amount of heated water relative to the huge volume of ocean allow such a direct observation at the surface.
However, there are ocean currents, some quite narrow and affected by several factors, that could be affected by the thousands of underwater geothermal sites, increases or decreases of which it seems to me might just affect greater ocean circulation patterns to some degree.
The newest ocean-temp-depth maps show that very cold water (as much as -6.0C below normal) is being cycled up to the surface now.
This signals a very big La Nina event is going to occur and it will develop very rapidly now.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstxz.gif
That was my point, to produce any changes to SST would require huge areas of continually ejected magma. There is no sign of this happening.
Tim Clark (12:06:38) :
J Berry (07:38:02) :
What does this predict for the midwest growing season?
Hi Tim,
late start, pretty wet.
Best of luck.
Mary Hinge (02:29:29) :
“Glenn (16:21:44) :
…..my first reaction was to realize that geothermal is deep under ocean, and with ocean currents would not show up directly over geothermal areas, nor would a small amount of heated water relative to the huge volume of ocean allow such a direct observation at the surface.
That was my point, to produce any changes to SST would require huge areas of continually ejected magma. There is no sign of this happening.”
Yes, but my point was that any changes would not show up *immediately above* geothermal activity, or at least not always. There may be changes to SST “downstream” so to speak, that is not recognized as having been caused by undersea geothermal, either directly or indirectly. Again, there are many “rivers” or currents surface and subsurface, and heat affects seawater salinity, etc. Could a (small compared to total ocean volume) heating of deep ocean current affect the regional current pattern?
These patterns *do* change, they seem quite complex in the Arctic, do we have the why of that down pat?
Mary Hinge
If you look at an animation of sea surface temperatures, there are certain areas where there are rapid changes between much colder than average and much warmer than average ocean areas.
The Gulf Stream, the area between Greenland and North America, between Greenland and Iceland, Iceland to north of Norway, the south Atlantic near South America, the south Atlantic around South Africa.
These are the areas where the most active ocean currents are occuring, the areas where the Thermohaline Ocean Circulation (the ocean deep ocean circulation system) are the most active. If you watch animations that last long enough, you’ll see there are actually areas where the ocean surface circulates in a circle where cold water and warm water rotate around each other in a Gyre.
The area between Iceland and Greenland is one of these and lately, there has just been more warm water than average being circulated into the Iceland-Greenland deep ocean circulation node.
It will go back to colder than normal in a no time at all (before it goes back to warmer than normal a little later etc. etc.)