Comments on: Even quieter on the solar front – another “all quiet alert” issued

By: Leif Svalgaard

Leif Svalgaard — Sun, 28 Dec 2008 15:02:57 +0000

the_Butcher (05:32:53) :
Is that light flare a spot coming up there?
It is a region of enhanced magnetic field. There may be a spot in it, but not necessarily. http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/mdi_igr/1024/latest.html shows no spot yet.

By: the_Butcher

the_Butcher — Sun, 28 Dec 2008 13:32:53 +0000

Is that light flare a spot coming up there?

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/eit_284/512/

By: AndrewWH

AndrewWH — Sun, 28 Dec 2008 07:29:25 +0000

Just for the record, Piers Corbyn lost his bet on the UK having a white Christmas this year.

By: nobwainer (Geoff Sharp)

nobwainer (Geoff Sharp) — Sun, 28 Dec 2008 01:26:12 +0000

Here’s a graph I made that Leif might be interested in….a SSB torque from 1740-2070.

Amazing likeness to the WSO solar pole strength graphs. 1790, 1830, 1860, 1970 and 2010 of most interest. Torque is neutral when polar strength is weakest?

http://users.beagle.com.au/geoffsharp/ssbtorque1740-2070.jpg

By: nobwainer (Geoff Sharp)

nobwainer (Geoff Sharp) — Sun, 28 Dec 2008 00:12:39 +0000

Leif Svalgaard (08:52:15) :

Thanks Leif, I dont think I am going to find what I am looking for in this area. Plus there is quite a few options: equatorial, differential, internal etc…I would need to get all 3 at min to determine a change I think.

BTW I have updated the momentum graph showing 1700-2070 with predictions.

http://users.beagle.com.au/geoffsharp/ultimate_graph2.jpg

By: Leif Svalgaard

Leif Svalgaard — Sat, 27 Dec 2008 16:52:15 +0000

More on solar rotation 1915-1975:
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFMSH13A1503B

By: Leif Svalgaard

Leif Svalgaard — Sat, 27 Dec 2008 15:47:08 +0000

nobwainer (Geoff Sharp) (23:20:15) :
That paper you referred concludes that a slower rotation rate increases activity…
You have cause and effect backwards. Increasing activity causes a slower rotation. This is because the interior of the Sun [apart from the polar regions] rotates slower than the surface, and solar magnetic fields connect the interior with the surface leading to a drag on the surface slowing it down.

By: Leif Svalgaard

Leif Svalgaard — Sat, 27 Dec 2008 15:38:37 +0000

nobwainer (Geoff Sharp) (23:20:15) :
I am looking for a graph that shows me the change in rotation rate of the sun over 200 yrs
The data does not exist for 200 years. The best we can do is the graph [Figure 1] in the paper that shows the rotation rate for each year since 1878. There are only a few sporadic measurements before that.

By: nobwainer (Geoff Sharp)

nobwainer (Geoff Sharp) — Sat, 27 Dec 2008 07:20:15 +0000

Leif Svalgaard (17:59:06) :

http://www.leif.org/research/ast10867.pdf
might give you some pointers. Or you can read off the values from the graph. I think I have steered you there before, and you wanted data from yesterday to investigate a 179 year cycle…

I am looking for a graph that shows me the change in rotation rate of the sun over 200 yrs so I can match it against the angular momentum vs SSN graph I just posted. Ang mom and SSN already line up so if rotational rates also follow the same pattern I bet solar polar strength graphs would do the same…tying the whole lot up…that would make it beyond doubt.

If its only availble for the last 40 yrs I am sure that would still be enough to show a match…esp with 1970 and now in the mix.

That paper you referred concludes that a slower rotation rate increases activity…slow down/speed up probably doesnt make a diference in the grand scheme, as long as we identify a slowing of activity. Whether more angular momentum speeds up or slows down the rotation rate is guest work on my part.

I could theorize that more angular momentum puts more resistance on the Sun thereby slowing the rotation rate which increases solar activity.

By: nobwainer (Geoff Sharp)

nobwainer (Geoff Sharp) — Sat, 27 Dec 2008 05:45:19 +0000

Leif Svalgaard (16:03:58) :

Ok here’s the graph with sunspot peaks matched with momentum. No allowance made for inertia or grand minima effects (history shows the cycles stay low for 2 cycles regardless of momentum after minima event).

http://users.beagle.com.au/geoffsharp/ultimate_graph2.jpg

By: Ulric Lyons

Ulric Lyons — Sat, 27 Dec 2008 03:45:12 +0000

Why do Mars/Earth syzygies have such a warming effect?, I made a forecast of heavy snow falls through this December, http://co2sceptics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=85&start=20 knowing that the temperature uplift from this alignment (Dec 5th) after a cold period would bring high levels of precipitation, and this is why the Arctic ice halted too. Gravity cannot be the answer.

By: nobwainer (Geoff Sharp)

nobwainer (Geoff Sharp) — Sat, 27 Dec 2008 03:07:23 +0000

Leif Svalgaard (16:03:58) :

And to make it real nice we could add a weighting factor to the calculated momentum figure to allow for major changes in speed/polarity (wind up/wind down inertia factor) say: if a cycle drops or increases by more than 50% from the previous cycle, add or subtract that percentage from the next cycle and half of that again added to the next cycle…I have done some rough stuff on paper and it looks to align perfectly for the last 10 cycles.

By: nobwainer (Geoff Sharp)

nobwainer (Geoff Sharp) — Sat, 27 Dec 2008 02:32:14 +0000

Leif Svalgaard (16:03:58) :

This should be easy to graph….there is a range of angular momentum from 0 – 4.500E+47 (whatever that is). Pick a centre point of 2.2500E+47 and weight each result away from that centre point (0 is as strong as 4.500e+47). Plot that against a sunspot cycle chart and watch the match up remembering to allow some lag time (maybe 5 yrs) for the Sun to get up or down to speed.

By: nobwainer (Geoff Sharp)

nobwainer (Geoff Sharp) — Sat, 27 Dec 2008 02:06:25 +0000

Leif Svalgaard (16:03:58) :

If its not rotation speed it will be something else affecting polar strength….it ties in with your theories but now gives a chance at predicting the polar strength for any future cycle instead of relying on a random number generator.

By: Leif Svalgaard

Leif Svalgaard — Sat, 27 Dec 2008 01:59:06 +0000

nobwainer (Geoff Sharp) (17:00:06) :
Neptune & Uranus perhaps control rotational speed of the sun
Sigh…

Solar rotational data if I can find it somewhere.
http://www.leif.org/research/ast10867.pdf
might give you some pointers. Or you can read off the values from the graph. I think I have steered you there before, and you wanted data from yesterday to investigate a 179 year cycle…