I can just see the reaction of scientists seventy years from now, shaking their heads in amazement at the silliness of the whole AGW phenomena, the never-ending series of tipping points, the thoughts of shooting sulphur into the atmosphere, and the whole notion of a minor trace gas being a climate driver. Perhaps by then they will have learned that a model is no good if it’s programmed with preconceived theories and speculation.
Steven Hill
December 12, 2008 6:41 pm
More warming news just came in for the NorthWest
Temperatures will drop to the teens in most of western Washington by Monday and remain below freezing through the middle of the week, said Kirby Cook, a weather service meteorologist.
Some lowland areas in western Washington may have temperatures in the single digits, he said, while lows on the east side were forecast below zero.
The temperatures could be the coldest in the region since 1990, Cook said.
Heavy snow was forecast for all mountain passes Friday night and Saturday. The state temporarily closed Cayuse and Chinook passes near Mount Rainier and the North Cascades Highway. Crews will decide after the weekend whether they’ll remain closed for the winter.
MattN
December 12, 2008 7:01 pm
I didn’t realize “climate change” was already in the vocabulary back in ’38. We ARE sure this this article is legit, right?
Meanwhile, somewhere on another plane of existence, the unborn Al Gore shrieked unheeded…
Aviator
December 12, 2008 8:39 pm
NEWS FLASH – SNOW FALLS ON PACIFIC ISLAND! I thought I would put out a typical hysterical headline to announce that it snowed on Vancouver Island today. It is, after all, a Pacific island. A climatologist (by his own claim) working as a meteorologist back in the 1970s told me that we were one missed summer away from a new ice age. I wonder what his position is today? I hope it wouldn’t depend on who is paying him as seems to be prevalent in climatology at present. Back to topic, it seems the Russians have switched sides and are now for global cooling.
deadwood
December 12, 2008 8:40 pm
RH:
You are reading them wrong. The first link compares 2006, 2007 and 2008 while the second link compares this and last year to the average for 1979-2000.
Look at them again and you will see that 2007 and 2008 in the right-hand graph on the first link matches the second link.
I just finished a post which is actually on topic here. I have been studying sea ice for a bit and calculated my own NH anomaly. I don’t understand why yet but it is quite different from the standard ice anomalies you see around the web. http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2008/12/13/problems-in-the-nh-sea-ice-anomaly/
If someone has an idea as to why my calcs don’t match I would be interested.
BTW: I read the entire article Anthony, I don’t know how you find this stuff.
Very nice.
Jim Arndt
December 12, 2008 9:42 pm
I like it the 70th anniversary of my birthday. Too bad I’m not that old……. LOL
Oscillations are that bomb. Tammy wouldn’t like this data and call it NOISE?!?!?
Shawn Whelan
December 12, 2008 9:49 pm
From NSIDC
“The 1930s to 1940s saw significant high latitude warming and therefore it is important to document accompanying changes in ice conditions for comparison with those of summers since 1990.” http://nsidc.org/research/projects/Barry_Eurasian_Arctic.html
Page 673– even Hansen says there is unexplained warming in the ’40’s Arctic
“The model’s fit with peak warmth near 1940 depends in
part on unforced fluctuations, e.g., the runs of Hansen et al.
(2005b), with nearly identical forcings to those in this
paper, appear to agree better with observations. As expected,
the runs in which the solar forcing includes only the
Schwabe 11-year solar cycle (Fig. 4), available on the
GISS web-site and included in Table 2 as AltSol, do not
produce peak warmth near 1940. AltSol also differs from
the standard ‘‘all forcing’’ scenario in having the sulfate
forcing reduced by 50%, thus yielding an 1880–2003 global
warming of 0.64C.
It may be fruitless to search for an external forcing to
produce peak warmth around 1940. It is shown below that
the observed maximum is due almost entirely to temporary
warmth in the Arctic. Such Arctic warmth could be a
natural oscillation (Johannessen et al. 2004), possibly unforced.” http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2007/2007_Hansen_etal_3.pdf
Gus
December 12, 2008 9:53 pm
RH, the Arctic ROOS is comparing the present with an average of 1979-2007. While NSIDC compares it with an average of 1979-2000.
April E. Coggins
December 12, 2008 10:11 pm
deadwood, what’s your point? Is it warmer over Chinook Pass or is there some other reason it stays open longer?
What is the averaged opening date and what are the anomalies?
crosspatch
December 12, 2008 10:35 pm
“it seems the Russians have switched sides and are now for global cooling.”
Russia has much more at stake from cooling than any other country on the planet considering the amount of land area in extremely cold regions and given the importance of those regions to Russia’s economy. Canada would also have a lot at stake as would the US concerning resources in Alaska.
Consider all the untapped mineral resources we currently have access to in Alaska but are off limits due to “conservation” requirements. Should another glaciation begin, those resources would likely be inaccessible for over 100,000 years. There would be no more Alaska oil or other minerals. The next glaciation will start rapidly. By the time we realize what is going on, it will already be too late to change policy to get those resources.
I suspect that is why Russia is making a grab for Arctic resources right now … while she still can.
hunter
December 12, 2008 11:25 pm
Shawn,
Hansen has nothing to contribute to the understanding of climate.
Hansen’s interest lies elsewhere.
TWC having a segment called “Arctic Shock And Awe” describing the blizzard conditions, snow, ice, arctic air et. al. hitting a state near you now…
Alex
December 13, 2008 12:02 am
At least in this article they have enough common sense to link the warming to the sun and ocean currents (ie Natural causes!).
Gone are the days when science was about telling the truth!
ElphonPeedupon
December 13, 2008 1:49 am
. . . I rather think that this ‘article’ has been invented. It’s by Harold Denny. Harold DENY? It features Professor Berg. IceBerg? The ‘facts’ are a summary of many of the major contemporary arguments against global warming; including references to the Antartic. The ship the scientists are on is almost at the North Pole, but, bearing in mind that it’s 1938, they’re somehow providing detailed data to Berg and Zupoff (can’t say I get that one) with sufficient detail for these guys to predict global trends. And it’s being reported in the NY Times – not that I could find a reference to the particular article myself on their website. Finally, there’s a reference to a guy being made Chief of Artic Aviation of the Northern Sea Route Administration (AKA: the NorthWest Passage). 1938? I don’t think so.
Chris Schoneveld
December 13, 2008 1:59 am
Leon Brozyna writes: “shaking their heads in amazement at the silliness ….. the whole notion of a minor trace gas being a climate driver.”
Even skeptics accept that the trace gas CO2 affects the climate and particularly so at low concentrations even more “tracy” than they are now: the introduction of CO2 in our atmosphere from 0-50 ppm has had a much greater impact on global temperatures than the greater human induced rise from 280-380 ppm.
I always balk when I hear people using the trace gas argument to debunk AGW. Lead poisoning also occurs at trace levels, yet it has a serious impact on health. There are enough legitimate arguments to debunk AGW but the trace gas argument is not one of them.
Nansen refers to 1979-2007. NSIDC refers to 1979-2000.
Rossa
December 13, 2008 3:07 am
The UK Met office has now revealed that the first third of December was only 1.7C compared with the long-term average of 5.2C. No wonder they don’t want to include this in their average for the year. This is the coldest start to winter for 30 years. Ironically the coldest start to winter was in ’76 the year we had a “drought”, the hottest summer I can remember (only 50, so you may know different).
The Met office of course has to revert to type and say that they had predicted this cold start in their seasonal forecast with milder conditions expected during Jan/Feb although they concede that there is still a chance of cold weather. They obvioulsy need to cover all the bases so that they can say “we told you so”.
This coincides with our true government meeting in Brussels to agree new global warming targets to 2020, which will become law. So any future government in the UK will not be able to reverse this law if the cooling trend continues….effectively another stitch up.
On a lighter note, bookies are not only taking bets on a White Xmas but also that the Thames will freeze over!!
EW
December 13, 2008 4:21 am
The Brussels politics reminds me eerily to a short story in a Stari Diaries written by a Polish sci-fi writer Stanislav Lem. In this story, an astronaut lands on a planet named Pinta, all covered with water. However, Pintians aren’t able to live under water despite the all-planetary propaganda and education.
The astronaut then finds out, that Pinta was once a very dry planet, so that continents were subjected to a grandiose watering plan. And the water went higher and higher, because no-one was able to dissolve the Water Commision or say aloud, that enough is enough. And so the Pintians ended up pretending that an evolution into a higher underwater being was the aim all along…
I just wonder if we will continue to fight the global warming even in the moment when thousands of people will freeze to death in long winters due to the artificially constructed astronomical energy prices…
Of no statistical significance but amusing is that the Arctic Ice extent on the 11December 2008 was the “highest since records began” at 11,678,594 sq Km’s — well since 2002 anyway according to IJIS !!
John Finn
December 13, 2008 4:46 am
Slightly off topic, but does anyone have any comments on this GISS plot of Godthaab (Greenland) temperature data: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_station.py?id=431042500000&data_set=1&num_neighbors=1
Apart from the fact that the late 1930s were warmer than to-day, there seems, to me, to be an issue with the actual data (see: monthly data as text link). For almost 40 years, between 1960 and ~1997, there is virtually a complete record (just one month missing data in Jan 1982). Since 1998, there are almost 20 missing months.
I don’t go in for conspiracy theories, but why is this? Remember that this is the station with just about the longest record in Greenland, and that Greenland, itself, is seen as a key region in the AGW argument. Yet, in this recent era of heightened debate, record-keeping here has become sloppier and more irregular than ever (since ~1900 at least).
There might be good reason for the missing data. Is it because the station data is considered unreliable? Does anybody know?
Adam Soereg
December 13, 2008 5:10 am
Motto in Hungarian: Klímaváltozás volt, klímaváltozás van, és mindig is lesz klímaváltozás. The climate has changed, the climate is changing, and the climate always will change.
We can’t stop it or prevent it. Say no to alarmism, whatever is the ‘consensus view’ at the moment (I mean Ice Age or AGW).
Alan the Brit
December 13, 2008 5:14 am
Deja Vu?
Didn’t one lump of iron called Titanic sink after striking a southbound icceberg in April 1912, with an unusually high number of icebergs being reported, suggesting warmer condidtions back even then. What’s this? Warmer waters in 1939 again, careful some body might wrongly conclude that there may be a pattern emerging, don’t want that happening do we! Better sqaush it quickly.
Rossa, don’t worry about not being able to change if Laws are passed to lock us in to a system. The governments have just changed all the rules of the PnDREU (Peoples non-Democratic Republic of the European Union) to try & turn back the tide of recessiion, so they are just as likley to change their minds & renage of any agreements if necessary, it’s just good old human nature!
And as for lead poisoning, yes it is trace in piped water in old lead pipe supplied houses, but as a trace element it is the build up over a long time that causes a problem. This we know. Just like rat poison to patients with heart problems, we don’t aim to kill them, just to alleviate their problem it’s in small doses! How many times did I as a child suck on my lead painted toy soldiers & cars, gnaw on the sides of our lead-based painted cots when teething, etc. Many of us at 45++ did so, & how many of us died or even suffered from lead poisoning, that was probably the beginning of the “Precautionary Principle” with all the other “Scary-Stories”! You never know though, that could go a long way to explaining Dr James Hansen & Al Gore, WWF, FoE, Greenwar&peace et al!!!!!!
I am still waiting for little green men from Mars to wipe us out from the 1930’s, the nuclear war to destroy us all in the 50’s & 60’s, the bio-chemical war or escaped bug to do ditto in the 60’s & 70’s, Global Cooling & the Iceage of the 70’s, the asteroid that blasts the Earth & kills everything – three movies on that one already done, (me thinks there’s still time for that one to do the rounds regardless of how real it is or isn’t – it’s started over here already in case the money dries up), the killer bug that eats us (Brits only) alive in the 90’s because they ran out of real news to print – around 20 people a year die from this bug in the UK but of course suddenly it could run riot, global cooling protagonists do an about face & unashamedly become global warming protagonists without so much as a by-your-leave. They finally seem to have found something to convince people is really happening to oppresss freedom & humanity! Only it isn’t happening on plan.
Elphon peedupon,
Harold denny was the moscow correspondent for the NYT starting in 1934. He also was pro Soviet in his writings which would mirror this particular article. I do not know whether the article is bona fide or not but but Denny was a correspondent stationed for the Times in Moscow. Later, he became a war correspondent.
What happens ? Sea-ice lose 500 000 km2 today on arctic-roos.org !!! 2008 line was touching average line few hours ago.
(bad level in english, sorry, I did my best)
Brett Smith
December 13, 2008 5:47 am
Harold Denny was a prolific writer of WWII for the New York Times.
DB2
December 13, 2008 5:59 am
Speaking of Arctic ice, there seems to be a discrepancy between….
There has been a change at the Norwegian site http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic
on Friday the 12th. I look at the ice area graph almost every day and on Thursday the black line for 2008 was right up against the 29-year average, well inside the grey one-standard-deviation area.
Today the 2008 line is suddenly outside the grey band and now has never been in it at all this year. Somebody changed something.
Bill Illis
December 13, 2008 6:09 am
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation explains the NH sea ice changes very well. (I looked at a daily sea ice numbers back to 1972 and the peak sea ice was in 1977 around the time the AMO cycle hit the bottom and started back up again.)
I note there is a large spike in the AMO in 1937 which probably influenced this story. http://img111.imageshack.us/img111/3383/amoanomalynp6.png
. . . I rather think that this ‘article’ has been invented. It’s by Harold Denny. Harold DENY? It features Professor Berg. IceBerg?
Perhaps having a the Berg surname got him interested is icebergs when he was a kid. How far did you look for related stories? I spent a couple minutes but only found for-pay articles about the Syedoff from the NYT:
January 17, 1940: SYEDOFF TO BE RETURNED; Icebreaker Reported Little Hurt by Pressure of Polar Pack http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F20617FD3A54107A93C5A8178AD85F448485F9
January 31, 1940: SYEDOFF IS HOME AT LAST; Russian Icebreaker at Murmansk After 27-Month Odyssey http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F40D1EF93855117A93C3AA178AD85F448485F9
How has the surname Peedupon influenced your life? You seem to look over your shoulder than taking the time to answer your own questions.
Mike Lewis
December 13, 2008 6:34 am
Can’t verify other sources yet but Harold Denny was a reporter for the New York Times during World War II and died in 1945, so it is possible he submitted this story in ’38.
The Graphs at Artic Roos changed last night. The most notable is the Ice Area with the standard deviation(lower left). Yesterday with a date of 12/10 the 2008 line was in contact with the 79-07 line. Today with a date of 12/11 its been moved completely outside the standard deviation(gray) area. I wonder why. Maybe it should be Spelled Hansen instead on Nansen.
borat
December 13, 2008 6:45 am
great cheering sovietland lighthouse for make benefit all advanced mankind!
One source of data I have not heard anyone talking about on this site or anyplace else I can find is the ocean data from the ARGO project, the worldwide array of robot floats that was completed about a year or so ago. This is a project with international support and I would think by now some of this data would be starting to tell us something about ocean temperature trends, currents and salinity. The home site is http://www.argo.net/ The site and the system itself is not meant to do analysis of the data collected, but rather to provide an international data base for anyone it who does. It was originally initiated to study global warming. Could it be that the lack of media coverage is due to the fact that it hasn’t shown any GW so far? Would be interested to know if any of the readers of this site have seen any referances to ARGO data.
Below is an excerpt from a post on my blog from Oct. 2. Although it’s a very short article it was printed over 50 years earlier than the one in Anthony’s post, and also this one explicitly says that this gentleman believes glacier retreat is due to the “prolonged action of man on the earth”:
I may have unearthed the very first documented evidence of an anthropogenic global warming alarmist. A “Patient Zero”? Perhaps.
In the May 18, 1884 edition of The New York Times, there is tucked deeply away in a column titled, ironically, “Scientific Gossip” the following passage:
“Roberto Paolo considers that the glaciers of the Alps were developed during a period of a lower mean Summer temperature than that of the present, and that they are retreating not so much, however, by cosmic or telluric causes as through meteorological changes depending partly on the prolonged action of man on the earth.”
Read it all on my blog… http://gorelied.blogspot.com/2008/10/new-york-times-may-18-1884-times-notes.html
DB2 (05:59:32) I concur. I also check that site frequently and just checked to confirm. I notice the very same change.
hunter
December 13, 2008 8:36 am
As AGW alarmists continue to be wrong, it is highly likely that they will (or have) cooked the books.
I urge those with resources to take screen shots of data as frequently as possible and to archive them. We have already seen the reaction of the GISS managers to being found out over their bad October data. We now know from NASA that the GISS product is influenced by bias. It is not unreasonable that other product managers would consider more ‘polishing’ to make sure their products are in compliance with Hansen and IPCC goals. I think many people, looking at GISS as it is today, would think it reasonable to believe it is already happening, in fact.
The AGW leadership is not going to gently give up in the face of the lack of facts. Like religious fanatics, they will find artifacts to bolster their claims, even if they do not exist.
We already see this to a certain extent when Gore makes crazy claims about the causes of storms, or AGW believers make silly statements like the UK Met office makes about weather. Once started on that path, outright fabrication of evidnce is only a short rationalization away.
TonyB
December 13, 2008 8:38 am
UK Daily Telegraph reported today that this the coldest start to December , in the UK, for 30 years – 1978/9. Confirmed by the UK Met Office last night on television
Mike C.
December 13, 2008 8:46 am
John Finn (04:46:06)
It is odd that Weather Underground doesn’t have any problem finding temps for Godthaab(Nuuk) for those missing months. A quick glance showed an occasional missing day. I looked at January 2008 in more detail. I didn’t do any calcs but I would guess that temps are 5 to 10 fahrenheit below normal(but probably not to Hansen’s base period) for that month. The Gistemp anomaly map shows that part of Greenland at 1 to 2 celsius below normal for January. It is so frustrating to see this kind of stuff over and over but no one in authority seems to care.
DB2 (05:59:32) :
Speaking of Arctic ice, there seems to be a discrepancy between….
There has been a change at the Norwegian site http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic
on Friday the 12th. I look at the ice area graph almost every day and on Thursday the black line for 2008 was right up against the 29-year average, well inside the grey one-standard-deviation area.
Today the 2008 line is suddenly outside the grey band and now has never been in it at all this year. Somebody changed something.
Confirmed. I noticed the same thing. Interestingly, it happened as there was an ongoing debate in a local newpaper forum, referring to that page. REPLY – see my latest post on the main page – Anthony
deadwood
December 13, 2008 9:24 am
April:
Blinders work for AGW’s foes as well as for its advocates. Facts which don’t support a hypothesis are as important in science as those that do – even anecdotal ones.
Today we have early December (12th/13th) snow in the Puget Sound lowlands. This is not rare, except perhaps when compared with the exceptionally warm winters we had over the last decade.
I have lived in the PNW since the early 1970’s. I know well that a late start to mountain snow (not lowland snow) does not mean it will be a warm winter. But it might mean we will not have enough accumulation to keep the reservoirs full come spring. If that happens two things will occur next spring. First, the farmers in Easter WA will have difficulty with irrigation, and second, AGW acolytes (our Governor foremost among them) will claim the drought is caused by “climate change”.
Is there a point to stating facts? I leave that to you.
Denny’s report isn’t a fake. It’s similar to a number of news items from the 1930’s. There was a ‘Greens’ movement back then in Britain, but they disbanded during WW2.
Another period of note from a Climate point of view is the 1890’s. Don’t just take my word for it, look for yourselves. Most of the reports from these two periods weren’t on line until recently but still buried in old newspaper archives.
I don’t know about this particular news story, but the Sedov’s drift across the Arctic Sea 1937-1940 most definitely happened. An interesting thing is that they found the average thickness of the arctic pack to be 1.3 meters as compared with the 3.1 meters found by the Fram expedition in the same area in 1893-96. Of course the 1930’s was a very warm period while the 1890’s was the tail end of the LIA.
Re: John Finn (04:46:06) :
Nuuk/Godthaab is the capitol of Greenland, houses a quarter of the population and the headquarters of the national airline, Air Greenland, I would say it is extremely unlikely that regular and reliable weather observations would not be made there. Most likely it is NOAA/GISS that has goofed again.
“ElphonPeedupon (01:49:29) :
. . . I rather think that this ‘article’ has been invented. It’s by Harold Denny. Harold DENY? It features Professor Berg. IceBerg? The ‘facts’ are a summary of many of the major contemporary arguments against global warming; including references to the Antartic. The ship the scientists are on is almost at the North Pole, but, bearing in mind that it’s 1938, they’re somehow providing detailed data to Berg and Zupoff (can’t say I get that one) with sufficient detail for these guys to predict global trends. And it’s being reported in the NY Times – not that I could find a reference to the particular article myself on their website. Finally, there’s a reference to a guy being made Chief of Artic Aviation of the Northern Sea Route Administration (AKA: the NorthWest Passage). 1938? I don’t think so.”
The icebreaker Sedov (Syedoff) was quite real:
“The Sedov was a Soviet ice-breaker fitted with steam engines. She was originally the Newfoundland sealing steamer Beothic and was renamed after Russian Captain and Polar explorer Georgy Yakovlevich Sedov.
This icebreaker sprung into fame because it became the first Drifting Soviet Polar Station.
In 1929 icebreaker Sedov went on the “High-latitude Government Expedition” to Franz-Josef Land carrying Soviet scientists.
In the summer of 1937 icebreaker Sadko sailed from Murmansk. Its original goal was to sail to Henrietta, Zhokhow and Jeanette Islands, in the De Long group and carry out scientific research. The purpose of the expedition was also to find out how could the Northern Sea Route be used for regular shipping and to explore the complex Nordenskiöld Archipelago. But the Soviet naval authorities changed the plans and the ice-breaker was sent instead to help ships in distress in the Kara and Laptev Seas.
The Sadko, however, became itself trapped in fast ice at 75°17’N and 132°28’E in the region of the New Siberian Islands. Other two Soviet icebreakers, the Sedov and the Malygin who were in the same area researching the ice conditions, became trapped by sea ice as well and drifted helplessly.
Owing to persistent bad weather conditions, part of the stranded crew members and some of the scientists could only be rescued in April 1938. And only on August 28th 1938, could ice-breaker “Yermak” free two of the three ships at 83°4’N and 138°22’E. The third ship, the Sedov, had to be left to drift in its icy prison and was transformed into a scientific polar station.
Ice-breaker Sedov kept drifting northwards in the ice towards the Pole, very much like Fridtjof Nansen’s Fram” had done in 1893-96. There were 15 crew aboard, led by Captain Konstantin Badygin and W. Kh. Buinitzki. The scientists aboard took 415 astronomical measurements, 78 electromagnetic observations, as well as 38 depth measurements by drilling the thick polar ice during their 812-day stay aboard the Sedov. Finally they were freed between Greenland and Svalbard by icebreaker Joseph Stalin, the biggest icebreaker of the Soviet fleet at that time, on January 18th 1940.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Icebreaker_Sedov
jorgekafkazar
December 13, 2008 10:43 am
Well, I’d have retyped the entire article and posted it with the 1938 left off just to see how far people would have had to read before they caught on. Too late now.
Brian in Alaska
December 13, 2008 11:51 am
Alan the Brit,
Good list of doomsday scenarios that came oh so close to exterminating us all. You did leave out a few that I can recall, though: Y2K, avian flu, second hand smoke, ebola, obesity, and one other that I’m afraid to mention even to this crowd.
Seems to me that gullibility and government are much more likely to do us in than a weather cycle.
Josh
December 13, 2008 1:04 pm
That article was written back when the media was totally objective. I like how the article states that no hasty conclusions should be drawn about why the polar ice was melting. If only today’s media was so objective and unbiased.
Ron de Haan
December 13, 2008 3:54 pm
Unbiased Media are hard to find.
Australia experienced a cold wintry spring with ice storms and lots of rain.
Nothing special about that.
It’s warm or it’s cold, you can’t have both can you?
Not according Mr. Glenn Cook, a senior meteorologist at the WA Bureau of Meteorology. He comes up with the following explanation for the cold spring
“Global warming is a background trend that has been clearly identified and these cool events will continue and continue for many years to come, they will just become less frequent as time goes on,”
Do you believe this guy? Even if we stumble into a full blown ice age, global warming is continuing in the back ground!
No wonder people are turning their back on printed media.
Their journalist suck and their meteorologists talk rubbish.
Where did they get their education I wonder.
Read the full article here: http://globalfreeze.wordpress.com/2008/12/13/perth-december-cool-and-wet-but-summer-is-coming/
Medic1532
December 13, 2008 4:00 pm
“ElphonPeedupon (01:49:29) :
The referenced Article can be found in the New York Times Archive the main archive search is from 1981 to present. The secondary search holds all articles from 1851 to 1981 thats where you find the article referenced above
(First paragraph as found on the New York Times Website below).
In the future please remember sceptics always check sources from BOTH sides of the AGW debate.
Medic1532 off the air in quarters
Article Preview
World Climate Growing Warmer, Say Russians, Citing Arctic Data; Two Professors Independently Find Change in Temperatures–They See a Gulf Stream Relation, but Look for Deeper Causes TEMPERATURE RISE OVER WORLD SEEN
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By HAROLD DENNYWireless to THE NEW YORK TIMES.
December 12, 1938, Monday
Page 1, 1143 words
The findings of Soviet explorers aboard the icebreaker Syedoff, now drifting within 300 miles of the North Pole, together with earlier observations by other investigators, have caused Soviet scientists to conclude that the Arctic region and, indeed, the whole world is growing warmer. [ END OF FIRST PARAGRAPH ]
Ron de han, it is the same here with CNN offering “planet in peril”. They absolutely never discuss the scientific arguments against it including the failed predictions but ever changing predictions of the IPCC.
A real thinker is open minded about facts and makes course corrections accordingly. Their course is demonize CO2, period.
My parents were married Christmas Day, 1937; that was the year that the “depression withing the depression” began. My mother tells me that the day was shirts leeve weather. My parents married Christmas Day because it was the only day both had off.
Ron de Haan
December 14, 2008 9:24 am
Ralph Short (17:37:15) :
“Ron de han, it is the same here with CNN offering “planet in peril”. They absolutely never discuss the scientific arguments against it including the failed predictions but ever changing predictions of the IPCC”.
A real thinker is open minded about facts and makes course corrections accordingly. Their course is demonize CO2, period.”
I used to watch CNN, CNBC, BBC, Sky and even Russia Today.
They are all “bought” by the AGW gang broadcasting a never ending feed of bias BS.
They even win “awards” for it, like Gore and the IPCC got the Nobel Price.
We are ruled by people and organizations that are corrupt to the bone.
I keep on asking myself what these people think when they look in the mirror? http://heliogenic.blogspot.com/2008/12/wonder-how-gore-got-his-prize.html
There was a Northern Sea Route Directorate/Administration. If this is a hoax, it is a good one. The one discordant note is that, as with Lysenkoism and Abiotic oil, the Soviets could have just been covering their existence by playing loose with science since Stalin ordered the Administration set up in 1932 but in 1937, practically all of their endavours to research a northern sea route had got into trouble. So keeping themselves going by claiming a warming route through the arctic could have been a bureaucratic strategy that only finally vapourised in the 1950s, with a cooler globe; this would also help explain the elimination of the directorate in 1962
Doug in Mankato, MN (07:10:22) :
“One source of data I have not heard anyone talking about on this site or anyplace else I can find is the ocean data from the ARGO project, the worldwide array of robot floats that was completed about a year or so ago. This is a project with international support and I would think by now some of this data would be starting to tell us something about ocean temperature trends, currents and salinity. The home site is http://www.argo.net/ The site and the system itself is not meant to do analysis of the data collected, but rather to provide an international data base for anyone it who does.”
Has anyone seen, downloaded and/or parsed this data?
Whenever I have looked I couldn’t find its location (got 404 not found) or anywhere it has been used to elucidate us (or not).
What is supremely ironic about this article is the “timing” of the expressed FEARS about temperature change – in the 1930’s!
In 1937, temperatures had just about peaked in the rise from 1890 through 1935, with temperatures falling considerably AFTER 1940 until 1972. So the “hot cliamte” and “melting ice caps” that THIS article notes were already on path to freeze over and begin the 30 year slide into the 1968-1970 FEARS about a coming ICE AGE!
Worse, at the very depths of the 1968-1972 “ICE AGE” fears, we now know that a short 27 year RISE in temperatures was beginning. So Dr. Hansen’s FEARS of a coming climate heat wave were developing between 1988 and 1998 – just at the peak of the current hot spot.
Today, ten years after world temperatures have peaked, and as they begin falling even further the last two years, we see an ever-increasing shrill scream of despair about heat waves.
Right on time. The news media reacts to hot weather just as the climate begins its next 30-year slide back down another 4/10 of one degree.
And as the “scientists” begin their yells and screams for more funding.
The report is genuine. The London Times had a similar article. Their article mentioned open water at 88 N. There have been many others. In 1861 Robert Firzroy (founder of the British Met Office) wrote of “the thawing of ice on many ridges of mountains and around the arctic circle.” Jackson in 1897 spoke of open water to the north of frozen areas . In 1907 a report in the Time was headed “Ice melting and oceanic circulation”. In 1911 a Times leader spoke of “mild, dreary and damp winters” and said there had been no hard winter for 15 years. In 1953 it reported that “the arctic ice cap began receding more than a generation ago” and in the same year it discussed changes in breeding patterns due to warmer temperatures.
Plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose…
Doug in Mankato, MN
December 20, 2008 7:34 am
“Response to Today in climate history – Dec 12th, 1938 – getting warmer
Doug in Mankato, MN (07:10:22) :
One source of data I have not heard anyone talking about on this site or anyplace else I can find is the ocean data from the ARGO project, the worldwide array of robot floats that was completed about a year or so ago. This is a project with international support and I would think by now some of this data would be starting to tell us something about ocean temperature trends, currents and salinity. The home site is The site and the system itself is not meant to do analysis of the data collected, but rather to provide an international data base for anyone it who does. It was originally initiated to study global warming. Could it be that the lack of media coverage is due to the fact that it hasn’t shown any GW so far? Would be interested to know if any of the readers of this site have seen any referances to ARGO data.”
In response to the topic “Today in Climate History – Dec 12th, 1938 -getting warmer” I asked(above) if anyone had seen any results or references to the ARGO project data. Since then I have found two references: http://oceans.pmel.noaa.gov/Pdf/hc_bias_jtech_v3.pdf http://argo3000.blogspot.com/2008/08/how-much-have-ocean-temperatures.html
The first is a paper published in June which discussed the cooling biases in some of the ARGO floats and also the warming biases in the pre-ARGO technology for measuring ocean temperatures. The second is a blog entry from someone on the ARGO team referencing a more recent article in Nature in August of this year by a team that apparently analyzed both pre-ARGO and ARGO data. I can’t access the Nature article, but the conclusions of both articles seem to be that prior to the ARGO network coming on line four years ago the oceans were gradually heating and since then the ARGO data seems to show NO overall change in temperature. From the first article it appears that most of the ARGO data is systematically correctable. Those same authors admit that the pre-ARGO technology was not really designed for climate analysis and that those data have problems. Both sets of authors, of course, insist that the case for warming oceans is “compelling” and that the current stable state(which, by the way is the only state for which we have good data) is just a phase in a constantly trend upward.
Again, I would like to know if anyone has seen other articles on ocean temperature, currents, etc. which reference the ARGO system. As a layman with a science background(retired electrical engineer) it would seem to me that the oceans, because of their enormous mass in comparison to anything else on the surface of the planet, would also have an enormous effect on the global climate compared to anything else.
well i had no idea that the coldest day on earth we had ever had since man has been on earth hapened on the year of 1938 i have heard that some scientists say that the coldest day of the hole global day was in 2007 its just so stupid but know i changed my mind i have decided that i will search more about global warming
from: goofy
= P peaz and love earth = P
I can just see the reaction of scientists seventy years from now, shaking their heads in amazement at the silliness of the whole AGW phenomena, the never-ending series of tipping points, the thoughts of shooting sulphur into the atmosphere, and the whole notion of a minor trace gas being a climate driver. Perhaps by then they will have learned that a model is no good if it’s programmed with preconceived theories and speculation.
More warming news just came in for the NorthWest
Temperatures will drop to the teens in most of western Washington by Monday and remain below freezing through the middle of the week, said Kirby Cook, a weather service meteorologist.
Some lowland areas in western Washington may have temperatures in the single digits, he said, while lows on the east side were forecast below zero.
The temperatures could be the coldest in the region since 1990, Cook said.
Heavy snow was forecast for all mountain passes Friday night and Saturday. The state temporarily closed Cayuse and Chinook passes near Mount Rainier and the North Cascades Highway. Crews will decide after the weekend whether they’ll remain closed for the winter.
I didn’t realize “climate change” was already in the vocabulary back in ’38. We ARE sure this this article is legit, right?
Speaking of Arctic ice, there seems to be a discrepancy between http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic and http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/. Is it just me?
Chinook pass is usually closed by the middle to end of November. We are getting a bit of late start to winter this year in the PNW.
Meanwhile, somewhere on another plane of existence, the unborn Al Gore shrieked unheeded…
NEWS FLASH – SNOW FALLS ON PACIFIC ISLAND! I thought I would put out a typical hysterical headline to announce that it snowed on Vancouver Island today. It is, after all, a Pacific island. A climatologist (by his own claim) working as a meteorologist back in the 1970s told me that we were one missed summer away from a new ice age. I wonder what his position is today? I hope it wouldn’t depend on who is paying him as seems to be prevalent in climatology at present. Back to topic, it seems the Russians have switched sides and are now for global cooling.
RH:
You are reading them wrong. The first link compares 2006, 2007 and 2008 while the second link compares this and last year to the average for 1979-2000.
Look at them again and you will see that 2007 and 2008 in the right-hand graph on the first link matches the second link.
This is a good thread to drop this URL. http://www.businessandmedia.org/specialreports/2006/fireandice/FireandIce.pdf
It doesn’t reference this story, but does mention oth warming reports around then.
RH,
They are using different baseline periods.
I’m predicting a period of continued cooling for the next 4-5 months.
I just finished a post which is actually on topic here. I have been studying sea ice for a bit and calculated my own NH anomaly. I don’t understand why yet but it is quite different from the standard ice anomalies you see around the web.
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2008/12/13/problems-in-the-nh-sea-ice-anomaly/
If someone has an idea as to why my calcs don’t match I would be interested.
BTW: I read the entire article Anthony, I don’t know how you find this stuff.
Very nice.
I like it the 70th anniversary of my birthday. Too bad I’m not that old……. LOL
Oscillations are that bomb. Tammy wouldn’t like this data and call it NOISE?!?!?
From NSIDC
“The 1930s to 1940s saw significant high latitude warming and therefore it is important to document accompanying changes in ice conditions for comparison with those of summers since 1990.”
http://nsidc.org/research/projects/Barry_Eurasian_Arctic.html
Page 673– even Hansen says there is unexplained warming in the ’40’s Arctic
“The model’s fit with peak warmth near 1940 depends in
part on unforced fluctuations, e.g., the runs of Hansen et al.
(2005b), with nearly identical forcings to those in this
paper, appear to agree better with observations. As expected,
the runs in which the solar forcing includes only the
Schwabe 11-year solar cycle (Fig. 4), available on the
GISS web-site and included in Table 2 as AltSol, do not
produce peak warmth near 1940. AltSol also differs from
the standard ‘‘all forcing’’ scenario in having the sulfate
forcing reduced by 50%, thus yielding an 1880–2003 global
warming of 0.64C.
It may be fruitless to search for an external forcing to
produce peak warmth around 1940. It is shown below that
the observed maximum is due almost entirely to temporary
warmth in the Arctic. Such Arctic warmth could be a
natural oscillation (Johannessen et al. 2004), possibly unforced.”
http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2007/2007_Hansen_etal_3.pdf
RH, the Arctic ROOS is comparing the present with an average of 1979-2007. While NSIDC compares it with an average of 1979-2000.
deadwood, what’s your point? Is it warmer over Chinook Pass or is there some other reason it stays open longer?
What is the averaged opening date and what are the anomalies?
“it seems the Russians have switched sides and are now for global cooling.”
Russia has much more at stake from cooling than any other country on the planet considering the amount of land area in extremely cold regions and given the importance of those regions to Russia’s economy. Canada would also have a lot at stake as would the US concerning resources in Alaska.
Consider all the untapped mineral resources we currently have access to in Alaska but are off limits due to “conservation” requirements. Should another glaciation begin, those resources would likely be inaccessible for over 100,000 years. There would be no more Alaska oil or other minerals. The next glaciation will start rapidly. By the time we realize what is going on, it will already be too late to change policy to get those resources.
I suspect that is why Russia is making a grab for Arctic resources right now … while she still can.
Shawn,
Hansen has nothing to contribute to the understanding of climate.
Hansen’s interest lies elsewhere.
TWC having a segment called “Arctic Shock And Awe” describing the blizzard conditions, snow, ice, arctic air et. al. hitting a state near you now…
At least in this article they have enough common sense to link the warming to the sun and ocean currents (ie Natural causes!).
Gone are the days when science was about telling the truth!
. . . I rather think that this ‘article’ has been invented. It’s by Harold Denny. Harold DENY? It features Professor Berg. IceBerg? The ‘facts’ are a summary of many of the major contemporary arguments against global warming; including references to the Antartic. The ship the scientists are on is almost at the North Pole, but, bearing in mind that it’s 1938, they’re somehow providing detailed data to Berg and Zupoff (can’t say I get that one) with sufficient detail for these guys to predict global trends. And it’s being reported in the NY Times – not that I could find a reference to the particular article myself on their website. Finally, there’s a reference to a guy being made Chief of Artic Aviation of the Northern Sea Route Administration (AKA: the NorthWest Passage). 1938? I don’t think so.
Leon Brozyna writes: “shaking their heads in amazement at the silliness ….. the whole notion of a minor trace gas being a climate driver.”
Even skeptics accept that the trace gas CO2 affects the climate and particularly so at low concentrations even more “tracy” than they are now: the introduction of CO2 in our atmosphere from 0-50 ppm has had a much greater impact on global temperatures than the greater human induced rise from 280-380 ppm.
I always balk when I hear people using the trace gas argument to debunk AGW. Lead poisoning also occurs at trace levels, yet it has a serious impact on health. There are enough legitimate arguments to debunk AGW but the trace gas argument is not one of them.
And it’s the coldest start to winetr for 30 years here in the UK. But, of course, the good old met office has to remind us it’s the 10th warmest year on record!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1094190/Flood-warnings-issued-Britain-shivers-coldest-start-winter-30-years.html
RH (19:04:15) :
Speaking of Arctic ice, there seems to be a discrepancy between http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic and http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/. Is it just me?
Nansen refers to 1979-2007. NSIDC refers to 1979-2000.
The UK Met office has now revealed that the first third of December was only 1.7C compared with the long-term average of 5.2C. No wonder they don’t want to include this in their average for the year. This is the coldest start to winter for 30 years. Ironically the coldest start to winter was in ’76 the year we had a “drought”, the hottest summer I can remember (only 50, so you may know different).
The Met office of course has to revert to type and say that they had predicted this cold start in their seasonal forecast with milder conditions expected during Jan/Feb although they concede that there is still a chance of cold weather. They obvioulsy need to cover all the bases so that they can say “we told you so”.
This coincides with our true government meeting in Brussels to agree new global warming targets to 2020, which will become law. So any future government in the UK will not be able to reverse this law if the cooling trend continues….effectively another stitch up.
On a lighter note, bookies are not only taking bets on a White Xmas but also that the Thames will freeze over!!
The Brussels politics reminds me eerily to a short story in a Stari Diaries written by a Polish sci-fi writer Stanislav Lem. In this story, an astronaut lands on a planet named Pinta, all covered with water. However, Pintians aren’t able to live under water despite the all-planetary propaganda and education.
The astronaut then finds out, that Pinta was once a very dry planet, so that continents were subjected to a grandiose watering plan. And the water went higher and higher, because no-one was able to dissolve the Water Commision or say aloud, that enough is enough. And so the Pintians ended up pretending that an evolution into a higher underwater being was the aim all along…
I just wonder if we will continue to fight the global warming even in the moment when thousands of people will freeze to death in long winters due to the artificially constructed astronomical energy prices…
ElphonPeedupon, you wrote: “The ship the scientists are on is almost at the North Pole, but, bearing in mind that it’s 1938, they’re somehow providing detailed data to Berg and Zupoff (can’t say I get that one) with sufficient detail for these guys to predict global trends.”
Why wouldn’t they be able to do that??? The Russians were seriously exploring and studying the Arctic in the 1930’s by air and sea.
You also wrote: “Finally, there’s a reference to a guy being made Chief of Artic Aviation of the Northern Sea Route Administration (AKA: the NorthWest Passage). 1938? I don’t think so.”
Here is a link that describes that Soviet government organization, founded in 1932. Lots of information on Russia’s exploration of the Northwest Passage in this book.
http://books.google.com/books?id=TpfSpUVmemAC&pg=PA53&lpg=PA53&dq=Chief+of+Artic+Aviation+of+the+Northern+Sea+Route+Administration&source=bl&ots=wjktVqetWg&sig=7xgujL13HxQA-4kIDe_rP_VDoVs&hl=en&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=8&ct=result#PPA53,M1
And here is a pic of the guy:
http://www.visualrian.com/images/item/144548
Since you mentioned DENY, I’ll mention DENIAL.
Of no statistical significance but amusing is that the Arctic Ice extent on the 11December 2008 was the “highest since records began” at 11,678,594 sq Km’s — well since 2002 anyway according to IJIS !!
Slightly off topic, but does anyone have any comments on this GISS plot of Godthaab (Greenland) temperature data:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/gistemp_station.py?id=431042500000&data_set=1&num_neighbors=1
Apart from the fact that the late 1930s were warmer than to-day, there seems, to me, to be an issue with the actual data (see: monthly data as text link). For almost 40 years, between 1960 and ~1997, there is virtually a complete record (just one month missing data in Jan 1982). Since 1998, there are almost 20 missing months.
I don’t go in for conspiracy theories, but why is this? Remember that this is the station with just about the longest record in Greenland, and that Greenland, itself, is seen as a key region in the AGW argument. Yet, in this recent era of heightened debate, record-keeping here has become sloppier and more irregular than ever (since ~1900 at least).
There might be good reason for the missing data. Is it because the station data is considered unreliable? Does anybody know?
Motto in Hungarian: Klímaváltozás volt, klímaváltozás van, és mindig is lesz klímaváltozás.
The climate has changed, the climate is changing, and the climate always will change.
We can’t stop it or prevent it. Say no to alarmism, whatever is the ‘consensus view’ at the moment (I mean Ice Age or AGW).
Deja Vu?
Didn’t one lump of iron called Titanic sink after striking a southbound icceberg in April 1912, with an unusually high number of icebergs being reported, suggesting warmer condidtions back even then. What’s this? Warmer waters in 1939 again, careful some body might wrongly conclude that there may be a pattern emerging, don’t want that happening do we! Better sqaush it quickly.
Rossa, don’t worry about not being able to change if Laws are passed to lock us in to a system. The governments have just changed all the rules of the PnDREU (Peoples non-Democratic Republic of the European Union) to try & turn back the tide of recessiion, so they are just as likley to change their minds & renage of any agreements if necessary, it’s just good old human nature!
And as for lead poisoning, yes it is trace in piped water in old lead pipe supplied houses, but as a trace element it is the build up over a long time that causes a problem. This we know. Just like rat poison to patients with heart problems, we don’t aim to kill them, just to alleviate their problem it’s in small doses! How many times did I as a child suck on my lead painted toy soldiers & cars, gnaw on the sides of our lead-based painted cots when teething, etc. Many of us at 45++ did so, & how many of us died or even suffered from lead poisoning, that was probably the beginning of the “Precautionary Principle” with all the other “Scary-Stories”! You never know though, that could go a long way to explaining Dr James Hansen & Al Gore, WWF, FoE, Greenwar&peace et al!!!!!!
I am still waiting for little green men from Mars to wipe us out from the 1930’s, the nuclear war to destroy us all in the 50’s & 60’s, the bio-chemical war or escaped bug to do ditto in the 60’s & 70’s, Global Cooling & the Iceage of the 70’s, the asteroid that blasts the Earth & kills everything – three movies on that one already done, (me thinks there’s still time for that one to do the rounds regardless of how real it is or isn’t – it’s started over here already in case the money dries up), the killer bug that eats us (Brits only) alive in the 90’s because they ran out of real news to print – around 20 people a year die from this bug in the UK but of course suddenly it could run riot, global cooling protagonists do an about face & unashamedly become global warming protagonists without so much as a by-your-leave. They finally seem to have found something to convince people is really happening to oppresss freedom & humanity! Only it isn’t happening on plan.
Elphon peedupon,
Harold denny was the moscow correspondent for the NYT starting in 1934. He also was pro Soviet in his writings which would mirror this particular article. I do not know whether the article is bona fide or not but but Denny was a correspondent stationed for the Times in Moscow. Later, he became a war correspondent.
What happens ? Sea-ice lose 500 000 km2 today on arctic-roos.org !!! 2008 line was touching average line few hours ago.
(bad level in english, sorry, I did my best)
Harold Denny was a prolific writer of WWII for the New York Times.
Speaking of Arctic ice, there seems to be a discrepancy between….
There has been a change at the Norwegian site
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic
on Friday the 12th. I look at the ice area graph almost every day and on Thursday the black line for 2008 was right up against the 29-year average, well inside the grey one-standard-deviation area.
Today the 2008 line is suddenly outside the grey band and now has never been in it at all this year. Somebody changed something.
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation explains the NH sea ice changes very well. (I looked at a daily sea ice numbers back to 1972 and the peak sea ice was in 1977 around the time the AMO cycle hit the bottom and started back up again.)
I note there is a large spike in the AMO in 1937 which probably influenced this story.
http://img111.imageshack.us/img111/3383/amoanomalynp6.png
Ahhh, vintage alarmism…
ElphonPeedupon (01:49:29) :
Perhaps having a the Berg surname got him interested is icebergs when he was a kid. How far did you look for related stories? I spent a couple minutes but only found for-pay articles about the Syedoff from the NYT:
January 17, 1940: SYEDOFF TO BE RETURNED; Icebreaker Reported Little Hurt by Pressure of Polar Pack
http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F20617FD3A54107A93C5A8178AD85F448485F9
January 31, 1940: SYEDOFF IS HOME AT LAST; Russian Icebreaker at Murmansk After 27-Month Odyssey
http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F40D1EF93855117A93C3AA178AD85F448485F9
How has the surname Peedupon influenced your life? You seem to look over your shoulder than taking the time to answer your own questions.
Can’t verify other sources yet but Harold Denny was a reporter for the New York Times during World War II and died in 1945, so it is possible he submitted this story in ’38.
Elphonpeedupon,
You must have not searched very hard at all. From the New York Times website – Harold Denny was a real reporter….amazing what our biases will make us see.
Just one page of many on his reports:
http://query.nytimes.com/search/query?query=harold+denny&srchst=p&d=&o=&v=&c=&sort=closest&n=10&dp=0&daterange=period&year1=1851&mon1=09&day1=18&year2=1980&mon2=12&day2=31&frow=40
As I’m a cheap son of a gun, and will not pay for all these articles, there are more on this very issue.
This one has to do with the Soviets and the Northwest passage:
http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=FA0D17FC3958177A93C5A8178DD85F408385F9&scp=117&sq=harold+denny&st=p
Failed to post the link properly:
http://www.54warcorrespondents-kia-30-ww2.com/government_file.html
The Graphs at Artic Roos changed last night. The most notable is the Ice Area with the standard deviation(lower left). Yesterday with a date of 12/10 the 2008 line was in contact with the 79-07 line. Today with a date of 12/11 its been moved completely outside the standard deviation(gray) area. I wonder why. Maybe it should be Spelled Hansen instead on Nansen.
great cheering sovietland lighthouse for make benefit all advanced mankind!
PaulHClark (02:15:55) :
And it’s the coldest start to winetr for 30 years here in the UK. But, of course, the good old met office has to remind us it’s the 10th warmest year on record!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1094190/Flood-warnings-issued-Britain-shivers-coldest-start-winter-30-years.html
I can’t help but feel that if it wasn’t for the warmer air coming off the Atlantic, this would have been one hell of a snowfall…
One source of data I have not heard anyone talking about on this site or anyplace else I can find is the ocean data from the ARGO project, the worldwide array of robot floats that was completed about a year or so ago. This is a project with international support and I would think by now some of this data would be starting to tell us something about ocean temperature trends, currents and salinity. The home site is http://www.argo.net/ The site and the system itself is not meant to do analysis of the data collected, but rather to provide an international data base for anyone it who does. It was originally initiated to study global warming. Could it be that the lack of media coverage is due to the fact that it hasn’t shown any GW so far? Would be interested to know if any of the readers of this site have seen any referances to ARGO data.
Below is an excerpt from a post on my blog from Oct. 2. Although it’s a very short article it was printed over 50 years earlier than the one in Anthony’s post, and also this one explicitly says that this gentleman believes glacier retreat is due to the “prolonged action of man on the earth”:
I may have unearthed the very first documented evidence of an anthropogenic global warming alarmist. A “Patient Zero”? Perhaps.
In the May 18, 1884 edition of The New York Times, there is tucked deeply away in a column titled, ironically, “Scientific Gossip” the following passage:
“Roberto Paolo considers that the glaciers of the Alps were developed during a period of a lower mean Summer temperature than that of the present, and that they are retreating not so much, however, by cosmic or telluric causes as through meteorological changes depending partly on the prolonged action of man on the earth.”
Read it all on my blog…
http://gorelied.blogspot.com/2008/10/new-york-times-may-18-1884-times-notes.html
Well, Harold Denny is certainly real, and was in Russia at that time:
http://books.google.com/books?id=BUg-lWpZcsIC&pg=PA475&lpg=PA475&dq=harold+denny+new+york+times+1938&source=bl&ots=bb_fvZUnNv&sig=XqKivjm8_jBHpxSGCKLJmTD5Di0&hl=en&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=5&ct=result
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,759286,00.html
and Vodopyanoff/ov was also quite real.
http://www.vor.ru/Events/program45.html
So it this is a fake, it’s a well researched fake….
Is this the article on the NYT pages?
http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F40D14F63C5F1B7A93C0A81789D95F4C8385F9&scp=1&sq=1938%20arctic%20syedoff&st=cse
DaveE.
DB2 (05:59:32) I concur. I also check that site frequently and just checked to confirm. I notice the very same change.
As AGW alarmists continue to be wrong, it is highly likely that they will (or have) cooked the books.
I urge those with resources to take screen shots of data as frequently as possible and to archive them. We have already seen the reaction of the GISS managers to being found out over their bad October data. We now know from NASA that the GISS product is influenced by bias. It is not unreasonable that other product managers would consider more ‘polishing’ to make sure their products are in compliance with Hansen and IPCC goals. I think many people, looking at GISS as it is today, would think it reasonable to believe it is already happening, in fact.
The AGW leadership is not going to gently give up in the face of the lack of facts. Like religious fanatics, they will find artifacts to bolster their claims, even if they do not exist.
We already see this to a certain extent when Gore makes crazy claims about the causes of storms, or AGW believers make silly statements like the UK Met office makes about weather. Once started on that path, outright fabrication of evidnce is only a short rationalization away.
UK Daily Telegraph reported today that this the coldest start to December , in the UK, for 30 years – 1978/9. Confirmed by the UK Met Office last night on television
John Finn (04:46:06)
It is odd that Weather Underground doesn’t have any problem finding temps for Godthaab(Nuuk) for those missing months. A quick glance showed an occasional missing day. I looked at January 2008 in more detail. I didn’t do any calcs but I would guess that temps are 5 to 10 fahrenheit below normal(but probably not to Hansen’s base period) for that month. The Gistemp anomaly map shows that part of Greenland at 1 to 2 celsius below normal for January. It is so frustrating to see this kind of stuff over and over but no one in authority seems to care.
DB2 (05:59:32) :
Speaking of Arctic ice, there seems to be a discrepancy between….
There has been a change at the Norwegian site
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic
on Friday the 12th. I look at the ice area graph almost every day and on Thursday the black line for 2008 was right up against the 29-year average, well inside the grey one-standard-deviation area.
Today the 2008 line is suddenly outside the grey band and now has never been in it at all this year. Somebody changed something.
Confirmed. I noticed the same thing. Interestingly, it happened as there was an ongoing debate in a local newpaper forum, referring to that page.
REPLY – see my latest post on the main page – Anthony
April:
Blinders work for AGW’s foes as well as for its advocates. Facts which don’t support a hypothesis are as important in science as those that do – even anecdotal ones.
Today we have early December (12th/13th) snow in the Puget Sound lowlands. This is not rare, except perhaps when compared with the exceptionally warm winters we had over the last decade.
I have lived in the PNW since the early 1970’s. I know well that a late start to mountain snow (not lowland snow) does not mean it will be a warm winter. But it might mean we will not have enough accumulation to keep the reservoirs full come spring. If that happens two things will occur next spring. First, the farmers in Easter WA will have difficulty with irrigation, and second, AGW acolytes (our Governor foremost among them) will claim the drought is caused by “climate change”.
Is there a point to stating facts? I leave that to you.
Denny’s report isn’t a fake. It’s similar to a number of news items from the 1930’s. There was a ‘Greens’ movement back then in Britain, but they disbanded during WW2.
Another period of note from a Climate point of view is the 1890’s. Don’t just take my word for it, look for yourselves. Most of the reports from these two periods weren’t on line until recently but still buried in old newspaper archives.
And in the news a multidecadal cycle later.
“Another ice age?” from Time magazine 1974
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,944914-1,00.html
I don’t know about this particular news story, but the Sedov’s drift across the Arctic Sea 1937-1940 most definitely happened. An interesting thing is that they found the average thickness of the arctic pack to be 1.3 meters as compared with the 3.1 meters found by the Fram expedition in the same area in 1893-96. Of course the 1930’s was a very warm period while the 1890’s was the tail end of the LIA.
Re: John Finn (04:46:06) :
Nuuk/Godthaab is the capitol of Greenland, houses a quarter of the population and the headquarters of the national airline, Air Greenland, I would say it is extremely unlikely that regular and reliable weather observations would not be made there. Most likely it is NOAA/GISS that has goofed again.
Re: John Finn (04:46:06) :
Yes, it is a GISS goof. The data you are lookinr is available here:
http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/gronland/vejrarkiv-gl.htm
“ElphonPeedupon (01:49:29) :
. . . I rather think that this ‘article’ has been invented. It’s by Harold Denny. Harold DENY? It features Professor Berg. IceBerg? The ‘facts’ are a summary of many of the major contemporary arguments against global warming; including references to the Antartic. The ship the scientists are on is almost at the North Pole, but, bearing in mind that it’s 1938, they’re somehow providing detailed data to Berg and Zupoff (can’t say I get that one) with sufficient detail for these guys to predict global trends. And it’s being reported in the NY Times – not that I could find a reference to the particular article myself on their website. Finally, there’s a reference to a guy being made Chief of Artic Aviation of the Northern Sea Route Administration (AKA: the NorthWest Passage). 1938? I don’t think so.”
The icebreaker Sedov (Syedoff) was quite real:
“The Sedov was a Soviet ice-breaker fitted with steam engines. She was originally the Newfoundland sealing steamer Beothic and was renamed after Russian Captain and Polar explorer Georgy Yakovlevich Sedov.
This icebreaker sprung into fame because it became the first Drifting Soviet Polar Station.
In 1929 icebreaker Sedov went on the “High-latitude Government Expedition” to Franz-Josef Land carrying Soviet scientists.
In the summer of 1937 icebreaker Sadko sailed from Murmansk. Its original goal was to sail to Henrietta, Zhokhow and Jeanette Islands, in the De Long group and carry out scientific research. The purpose of the expedition was also to find out how could the Northern Sea Route be used for regular shipping and to explore the complex Nordenskiöld Archipelago. But the Soviet naval authorities changed the plans and the ice-breaker was sent instead to help ships in distress in the Kara and Laptev Seas.
The Sadko, however, became itself trapped in fast ice at 75°17’N and 132°28’E in the region of the New Siberian Islands. Other two Soviet icebreakers, the Sedov and the Malygin who were in the same area researching the ice conditions, became trapped by sea ice as well and drifted helplessly.
Owing to persistent bad weather conditions, part of the stranded crew members and some of the scientists could only be rescued in April 1938. And only on August 28th 1938, could ice-breaker “Yermak” free two of the three ships at 83°4’N and 138°22’E. The third ship, the Sedov, had to be left to drift in its icy prison and was transformed into a scientific polar station.
Ice-breaker Sedov kept drifting northwards in the ice towards the Pole, very much like Fridtjof Nansen’s Fram” had done in 1893-96. There were 15 crew aboard, led by Captain Konstantin Badygin and W. Kh. Buinitzki. The scientists aboard took 415 astronomical measurements, 78 electromagnetic observations, as well as 38 depth measurements by drilling the thick polar ice during their 812-day stay aboard the Sedov. Finally they were freed between Greenland and Svalbard by icebreaker Joseph Stalin, the biggest icebreaker of the Soviet fleet at that time, on January 18th 1940.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Icebreaker_Sedov
Well, I’d have retyped the entire article and posted it with the 1938 left off just to see how far people would have had to read before they caught on. Too late now.
Alan the Brit,
Good list of doomsday scenarios that came oh so close to exterminating us all. You did leave out a few that I can recall, though: Y2K, avian flu, second hand smoke, ebola, obesity, and one other that I’m afraid to mention even to this crowd.
Seems to me that gullibility and government are much more likely to do us in than a weather cycle.
That article was written back when the media was totally objective. I like how the article states that no hasty conclusions should be drawn about why the polar ice was melting. If only today’s media was so objective and unbiased.
Unbiased Media are hard to find.
Australia experienced a cold wintry spring with ice storms and lots of rain.
Nothing special about that.
It’s warm or it’s cold, you can’t have both can you?
Not according Mr. Glenn Cook, a senior meteorologist at the WA Bureau of Meteorology. He comes up with the following explanation for the cold spring
“Global warming is a background trend that has been clearly identified and these cool events will continue and continue for many years to come, they will just become less frequent as time goes on,”
Do you believe this guy? Even if we stumble into a full blown ice age, global warming is continuing in the back ground!
No wonder people are turning their back on printed media.
Their journalist suck and their meteorologists talk rubbish.
Where did they get their education I wonder.
Read the full article here:
http://globalfreeze.wordpress.com/2008/12/13/perth-december-cool-and-wet-but-summer-is-coming/
“ElphonPeedupon (01:49:29) :
The referenced Article can be found in the New York Times Archive the main archive search is from 1981 to present. The secondary search holds all articles from 1851 to 1981 thats where you find the article referenced above
(First paragraph as found on the New York Times Website below).
In the future please remember sceptics always check sources from BOTH sides of the AGW debate.
Medic1532 off the air in quarters
Article Preview
World Climate Growing Warmer, Say Russians, Citing Arctic Data; Two Professors Independently Find Change in Temperatures–They See a Gulf Stream Relation, but Look for Deeper Causes TEMPERATURE RISE OVER WORLD SEEN
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By HAROLD DENNYWireless to THE NEW YORK TIMES.
December 12, 1938, Monday
Page 1, 1143 words
The findings of Soviet explorers aboard the icebreaker Syedoff, now drifting within 300 miles of the North Pole, together with earlier observations by other investigators, have caused Soviet scientists to conclude that the Arctic region and, indeed, the whole world is growing warmer. [ END OF FIRST PARAGRAPH ]
Ron de han, it is the same here with CNN offering “planet in peril”. They absolutely never discuss the scientific arguments against it including the failed predictions but ever changing predictions of the IPCC.
A real thinker is open minded about facts and makes course corrections accordingly. Their course is demonize CO2, period.
Good a time as any! Have a chuckle at this article.
Global Warming Attributed To Liberal Imagination
OK, I’m convinced. Thanks all.
My parents were married Christmas Day, 1937; that was the year that the “depression withing the depression” began. My mother tells me that the day was shirts leeve weather. My parents married Christmas Day because it was the only day both had off.
Ralph Short (17:37:15) :
“Ron de han, it is the same here with CNN offering “planet in peril”. They absolutely never discuss the scientific arguments against it including the failed predictions but ever changing predictions of the IPCC”.
A real thinker is open minded about facts and makes course corrections accordingly. Their course is demonize CO2, period.”
I used to watch CNN, CNBC, BBC, Sky and even Russia Today.
They are all “bought” by the AGW gang broadcasting a never ending feed of bias BS.
They even win “awards” for it, like Gore and the IPCC got the Nobel Price.
We are ruled by people and organizations that are corrupt to the bone.
I keep on asking myself what these people think when they look in the mirror?
http://heliogenic.blogspot.com/2008/12/wonder-how-gore-got-his-prize.html
There was a Northern Sea Route Directorate/Administration. If this is a hoax, it is a good one. The one discordant note is that, as with Lysenkoism and Abiotic oil, the Soviets could have just been covering their existence by playing loose with science since Stalin ordered the Administration set up in 1932 but in 1937, practically all of their endavours to research a northern sea route had got into trouble. So keeping themselves going by claiming a warming route through the arctic could have been a bureaucratic strategy that only finally vapourised in the 1950s, with a cooler globe; this would also help explain the elimination of the directorate in 1962
Doug in Mankato, MN (07:10:22) :
“One source of data I have not heard anyone talking about on this site or anyplace else I can find is the ocean data from the ARGO project, the worldwide array of robot floats that was completed about a year or so ago. This is a project with international support and I would think by now some of this data would be starting to tell us something about ocean temperature trends, currents and salinity. The home site is http://www.argo.net/ The site and the system itself is not meant to do analysis of the data collected, but rather to provide an international data base for anyone it who does.”
Has anyone seen, downloaded and/or parsed this data?
Whenever I have looked I couldn’t find its location (got 404 not found) or anywhere it has been used to elucidate us (or not).
What is supremely ironic about this article is the “timing” of the expressed FEARS about temperature change – in the 1930’s!
In 1937, temperatures had just about peaked in the rise from 1890 through 1935, with temperatures falling considerably AFTER 1940 until 1972. So the “hot cliamte” and “melting ice caps” that THIS article notes were already on path to freeze over and begin the 30 year slide into the 1968-1970 FEARS about a coming ICE AGE!
Worse, at the very depths of the 1968-1972 “ICE AGE” fears, we now know that a short 27 year RISE in temperatures was beginning. So Dr. Hansen’s FEARS of a coming climate heat wave were developing between 1988 and 1998 – just at the peak of the current hot spot.
Today, ten years after world temperatures have peaked, and as they begin falling even further the last two years, we see an ever-increasing shrill scream of despair about heat waves.
Right on time. The news media reacts to hot weather just as the climate begins its next 30-year slide back down another 4/10 of one degree.
And as the “scientists” begin their yells and screams for more funding.
Hi everyone!
this is a must read!.. its almost comedy but also sad because its the same canon 9i quess the since was settled in 1989
the “popular science” august 1989 12 pages Global warming special..
with Hansen et al..
http://books.google.com/books?id=vAAAAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA55&hl=nl&source=gbs_toc_pages_r&cad=0_1#PPA51,M1
u will love it
btw all!!! (sines 1870) issues ar online. very nice to read trough the old issues
http://books.google.com/books?id=JScDAAAAMBAJ&hl=nl&source=gbs_all_issues_r&cad=2_2
Part 2;
http://books.google.com/books?id=vgAAAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA63&hl=nl&source=gbs_toc_pages_r&cad=0_1
part 3
http://books.google.com/books?id=wAAAAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA51&hl=nl&source=gbs_toc_pages_r&cad=0_1
The report is genuine. The London Times had a similar article. Their article mentioned open water at 88 N. There have been many others. In 1861 Robert Firzroy (founder of the British Met Office) wrote of “the thawing of ice on many ridges of mountains and around the arctic circle.” Jackson in 1897 spoke of open water to the north of frozen areas . In 1907 a report in the Time was headed “Ice melting and oceanic circulation”. In 1911 a Times leader spoke of “mild, dreary and damp winters” and said there had been no hard winter for 15 years. In 1953 it reported that “the arctic ice cap began receding more than a generation ago” and in the same year it discussed changes in breeding patterns due to warmer temperatures.
Plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose…
“Response to Today in climate history – Dec 12th, 1938 – getting warmer
Doug in Mankato, MN (07:10:22) :
One source of data I have not heard anyone talking about on this site or anyplace else I can find is the ocean data from the ARGO project, the worldwide array of robot floats that was completed about a year or so ago. This is a project with international support and I would think by now some of this data would be starting to tell us something about ocean temperature trends, currents and salinity. The home site is The site and the system itself is not meant to do analysis of the data collected, but rather to provide an international data base for anyone it who does. It was originally initiated to study global warming. Could it be that the lack of media coverage is due to the fact that it hasn’t shown any GW so far? Would be interested to know if any of the readers of this site have seen any referances to ARGO data.”
In response to the topic “Today in Climate History – Dec 12th, 1938 -getting warmer” I asked(above) if anyone had seen any results or references to the ARGO project data. Since then I have found two references:
http://oceans.pmel.noaa.gov/Pdf/hc_bias_jtech_v3.pdf
http://argo3000.blogspot.com/2008/08/how-much-have-ocean-temperatures.html
The first is a paper published in June which discussed the cooling biases in some of the ARGO floats and also the warming biases in the pre-ARGO technology for measuring ocean temperatures. The second is a blog entry from someone on the ARGO team referencing a more recent article in Nature in August of this year by a team that apparently analyzed both pre-ARGO and ARGO data. I can’t access the Nature article, but the conclusions of both articles seem to be that prior to the ARGO network coming on line four years ago the oceans were gradually heating and since then the ARGO data seems to show NO overall change in temperature. From the first article it appears that most of the ARGO data is systematically correctable. Those same authors admit that the pre-ARGO technology was not really designed for climate analysis and that those data have problems. Both sets of authors, of course, insist that the case for warming oceans is “compelling” and that the current stable state(which, by the way is the only state for which we have good data) is just a phase in a constantly trend upward.
Again, I would like to know if anyone has seen other articles on ocean temperature, currents, etc. which reference the ARGO system. As a layman with a science background(retired electrical engineer) it would seem to me that the oceans, because of their enormous mass in comparison to anything else on the surface of the planet, would also have an enormous effect on the global climate compared to anything else.
well i had no idea that the coldest day on earth we had ever had since man has been on earth hapened on the year of 1938 i have heard that some scientists say that the coldest day of the hole global day was in 2007 its just so stupid but know i changed my mind i have decided that i will search more about global warming
from: goofy
= P peaz and love earth = P