Comments on: 21 spotless days and solar magnetic field still in a funk http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/09/21-spotless-days-and-solar-magnetic-field-still-in-a-funk/ The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change Thu, 16 Feb 2012 18:09:03 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.com/ By: crosspatch http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/09/21-spotless-days-and-solar-magnetic-field-still-in-a-funk/#comment-63950 Tue, 16 Dec 2008 06:16:22 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=4479#comment-63950 I just went back and did a little googling around. It seem the sun went spectacularly active in September 2005 … and then went very quiet the following month in October. There was one sunspot group that generated several x-ray flares in September.

On this page if you scroll down and see the number of flare events in September, then go to this page for the following month, difference is night and day.

Another article quote’s NASA’s Dr. Hathaway as saying:

“The sunspots of 2005, while fewer, have done more than their share of exploding.” Consider sunspot 798/808, the source of the Sept 7th superflare and eight lesser X-flares. All by itself, this sunspot has made Sept. 2005 the most active month on the sun since March 1991.

So not only did the sun get very quiet in 2005, but it got REALLY active immediately before in September.

]]> By: Robert A Cook PE http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/09/21-spotless-days-and-solar-magnetic-field-still-in-a-funk/#comment-63891 Tue, 16 Dec 2008 02:55:34 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=4479#comment-63891 It’s now December 15, and still no sunspot activity.

Should we update the title? 8<)

Start a “countdown-until-2008-beats-1913-days-without-a-spot” thread?

]]> By: Leif Svalgaard http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/09/21-spotless-days-and-solar-magnetic-field-still-in-a-funk/#comment-63494 Sun, 14 Dec 2008 23:53:13 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=4479#comment-63494 Robert Bateman (12:44:57) :
The flux is basically flatlined, as you point out.
The year 1954 was as quiet [ http://www.dxlc.com/solar/history/hist1954.html ] and yet cycle 19 was one of the biggest one ever observed.

The daily sunspot data (I surmise) from 1817 and before may be lost
Hoyt and Schatten list the original observations for every day since 1610. The list may be found here: http://www.leif.org/research/rawgssn.txt

]]> By: Robert Bateman http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/09/21-spotless-days-and-solar-magnetic-field-still-in-a-funk/#comment-63452 Sun, 14 Dec 2008 20:44:57 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=4479#comment-63452 Lief: Yes, the flux dips in July and reaches a peak in January, and all because of our orbital eccentricity. The flux is basically flatlined, as you point out.
When I look at the sunspot vs flux, I don’t see much movement in the flux from the sunspot activity (sic) directly below. This tells me that there is precious little activity in the Sun.
The whole idea of the page was to illustrate the pattern of progression SC 3-4-5 to SC 22-23-24.
The daily sunspot data (I surmise) from 1817 and below may be lost and all we have left is the monthly averages that were gleaned from them. Finding it’s way into somebody’s papers or reports the monthly survived but the daily counts disappeared.

]]> By: N Sweden http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/09/21-spotless-days-and-solar-magnetic-field-still-in-a-funk/#comment-63429 Sun, 14 Dec 2008 18:01:33 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=4479#comment-63429 Leif – Well, yes. But I thought that your findings makes it harder to explain climate change in the past – when there was no AGW. And isnt part of AGW-theory that the “usual” factors (such as solar) cannot explain todays warming, and therefore human factors are likely to play great part of current warming?

If we then learn that the way we explain climate change in the past perhaps does not work, what does that mean for AGW-theory?

In your opinion, how should climate science react to your findings about solar influence on climate?

]]> By: Sunspotter http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/09/21-spotless-days-and-solar-magnetic-field-still-in-a-funk/#comment-63423 Sun, 14 Dec 2008 17:01:22 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=4479#comment-63423 Things are VERY quiet. SIDC Belgium issues
All Quiet Alert.
“START OF ALL QUIET ALERT
The SIDC – RWC Belgium expects quiet Space Weather conditions for the next 48 hours or until further
notice. This implies that: * the solar X-ray output
is expected to remain below C-class level, * the
K_p index is expected to remain below 5, * the
high-energy proton fluxes are expected to remain
below the event threshold.”

]]> By: Leif Svalgaard http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/09/21-spotless-days-and-solar-magnetic-field-still-in-a-funk/#comment-63416 Sun, 14 Dec 2008 16:07:51 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=4479#comment-63416 N Sweden (03:25:01) :
should require climate scientists to find new explanations? Has this happened?
Yes, indeed, they call it AGW.

]]> By: Leif Svalgaard http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/09/21-spotless-days-and-solar-magnetic-field-still-in-a-funk/#comment-63415 Sun, 14 Dec 2008 16:06:31 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=4479#comment-63415 Robert Bateman (06:41:55) :
I have done a comparison graph of Solar Cycle 4 to 23:
One thing to be aware of: The lower panel plots use the ‘observed’ values for the solar flux instead of the ‘adjusted’ values. For radio communication, the observed values are appropriate, but for solar comparisons, the adjusted values must be used, otherwise the July values will be 7% too low [as we are further away from the Sun] and you get a spurious minimum in July [as is even visible on the graph].

]]> By: Robert Bateman http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/09/21-spotless-days-and-solar-magnetic-field-still-in-a-funk/#comment-63402 Sun, 14 Dec 2008 14:41:55 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=4479#comment-63402 I have done a comparison graph of Solar Cycle 4 to 23:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/DeepSolarMin.htm
I have the beginning of SC23 set at mid 1996.
Sources disagree as to when it actually started, but the gist is the same.
One more year of this wimpy SC24 and we get a Dalton 50 max for Christmas.
Otherwise Leif wins with a SC24 65-75 max.

]]> By: E.M.Smith http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/09/21-spotless-days-and-solar-magnetic-field-still-in-a-funk/#comment-63391 Sun, 14 Dec 2008 12:01:07 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=4479#comment-63391 brian notsobright (18:39:28) :
I just cant decide between a wood burning furnace or solar assist cooling system .

If you need a heater and don’t have it you die. If you need a cooler and don’t have it, you drink another beer (or soda…). Get the heater.

]]> By: N Sweden http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/09/21-spotless-days-and-solar-magnetic-field-still-in-a-funk/#comment-63385 Sun, 14 Dec 2008 11:25:01 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=4479#comment-63385 Thanks for your answer Leif. If I have understood you correctly, your findings mean that the planet either must be supersensitive to the changes in the sun, or that the planet is not sensitive at all to changes in the sun (almost).

What are the implications for climate science? If climate science has assumed that the sun has been a “player” in the past I guess that your findings should require climate scientists to find new explanations? Has this happened?

Does someone else perhaps know? I realize Dr Svaalgard may have better things to do than answering questions here…;)

]]> By: Sunspotter http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/09/21-spotless-days-and-solar-magnetic-field-still-in-a-funk/#comment-63276 Sat, 13 Dec 2008 20:13:20 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=4479#comment-63276 P.S. Thanks for the links, Leif.

]]> By: Sunspotter http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/09/21-spotless-days-and-solar-magnetic-field-still-in-a-funk/#comment-63275 Sat, 13 Dec 2008 20:10:57 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=4479#comment-63275 UPDATE
Upon reviewing my data, an accounting error was discovered.
The value should be 238 as of Nov.30, not 230 as stated
above. I guess that’s what happens when one proof-reads
one’s own work.Sorry.

]]> By: Leif Svalgaard http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/09/21-spotless-days-and-solar-magnetic-field-still-in-a-funk/#comment-63231 Sat, 13 Dec 2008 18:00:39 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=4479#comment-63231 Sunspotter (08:36:54) :
Is there anywhere else I can get daly data for the current
month?

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/solar_indices.html
and on that page:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/quar_DSD.txt

The NOAA numbers are bigger than SIDC numbers. You have to multiply the NOAA numbers by 0.62 [approx.] to convert to SIDC Brussels numbers.

]]> By: Sunspotter http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/09/21-spotless-days-and-solar-magnetic-field-still-in-a-funk/#comment-63204 Sat, 13 Dec 2008 16:39:09 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=4479#comment-63204 Egad, what happened to my formatting?

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