“On the issue of Russia. Much of central Russia was ‘warmer’ than during November”

should be “warmer than normal”.

RE: previous 2 posts

My argument isn’t that it’s partcularly warm, or that it’s warmng at a particularly alaming rate. My argument is that it’s NOT cooling. There have been a whole host of posts on this and other blogs claiming that , because of quiet sun, PDO or whatever, we’re heading into a deep freeze. The lower temperatures of the past 12 months were presented as evidence that this cooling was now underway. I had always maintained that temperatures were simply tracking the recent La Nina and now that has faded temperatures are returning to recent ‘normal’ levels.

On the issue of Russia. Much of central Russia was ‘warmer’ than during November. Since the end of November, the ‘warmth’ has become less widespread and a cold area (anomaly wise) appears to have developed over northern Russia/Siberia.

I have my doubts about warm Russia. I know that’s the story in the news but I often check weather at a couple of widely spaced places in Siberia for personal reasons; and it looks to me that the people who live there have missed this wonderful warm fall. some places may be a couple degrees warmer than average but others have been very cold. My guess is they just found a new way to fudge the data. Balmy -53 in Yakutsk right now. Imagine what it’s like in the far north… think I’ll buy a beach house.

JimB

So this is part of the problem. “Up” from what? Where was it before?
GISS was shown awhile ago here on WUWT to have adjusted historical temperatures downward. How does that happen? How can we say that in Lincoln, Maine it really wasn’t 48degF on Sept 12th, 1918…it was really only 40degF?
That’s part 1.
Part 2 is ok, let’s say it’s going up. No one has been able to prove that C02 is the cause…in fact, there’s fairly significant evidence that it’s NOT the cause.
And, if it’s not the cause, then why are we preparing to tax the bejeezus out of anyone that farts?
The best the IPCC seemed capable of coming up with was “We can’t prove anything ELSE did it, so it’s C02″.

JimB (the “B” is for “Beano”)

What about RSS and UAH data? RSS is up; UAH is almost certainly up yet everyone carries on citing anecdotal evidence of cooling and blaming faulty GISS data for not showing it. Global temperatures are recovering (since last Dec/Jan) and they will continue to recover unless a substantial La Nina emerges.

Dennis, if only we HAD global data. Unfortunately, the most widely cited temperature sets are not data, they are massaged pasteurized processed data product… GISS and friends are not willing to share the raw data nor exactly how they rewrite the data; but do ask that you just trust them in their rewriting of the past.

The other major problem (discussed in many other threads on this site) is that the raw data gathered are often weakened by various flaws. There are many threads here showing thermometers located near BBQs, car & jet exhausts, building heater/ac vents, etc. where the standards say they ought not to be.

Then there is the way the data are collected. The process for land thermometers has the thermometer read in 1/10 degree increments then the temperature is rounded to a whole number and that is what is reported. If you had 32.9 last year and 32.5 this year they would show as identical 32 degree reports. If a min or max is missing, the person reporting is supposed to guess, yes, just make up what they think it ought to be…

So, bad thermometer sites, reported in whole digits only, then mysteriously homogenized and processed into a “data set”.

Then, the other big problem: If, say, your low is 2 degrees higher than last year but your high is also 2 degrees lower it will be reported as ‘no change to the average’ since the highs and lows are averaged. Worse, if your temp was 3 degrees lower for 23 hours out of the day, but your low spiked up 3 degrees for 1 hour, THAT would be reported as ‘no change to the average’.

Since what’s in the headline is the nonsense number that comes from averaging globally all those other high/low averages, if you have some places that haven’t cooled yet and some others that are reporting higher lows due to snow / clouds moderating the daily mins, you can easily get a number that’s higher when larger parts of the world are under cloud, rain, and snow with the cold spreading out.

So I’d assert that you ought to expect to see the reported temps higher than what you see out your window. My one big hope is that it will be so extra cold and snowy this year that it will be obvious to everyone that the data are jiggered.

Just for fun, google “2008 record cold snow” and see what pops up. You’ll find Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, China, Mongolia, England, Alaska, even snow in Southern Brazil and many many more. Google ski reports for Switzerland, France, etc. It’s a great season world wide.

Also it isn’t even winter yet. Give it time. The cold has just started moving down from Canada into the U.S. It has to soak in and spread out some (though there were some very cold reports from Cuba and Florida lately… 29F wind chill in Orlando!)

While most of us would look at more clouds, rain, snow and lower max temps as evidence of cooling, the way the numbers are cooked can claim that is warming. But only for so long and only for so much…

The oceans and land hold a great deal of stored heat. It takes a while for an inflection in heating inputs to have an effect. The quiet sun is having it’s effect (IMHO at the poles first and spreading out from there) and “its getting colder, for how long even kim doesn’t know” ;-)

Have a look at Dr Roy Spencer’s website where he states that the November 2008 UAH global temperature anomoly is +0.25 degree C. His 4th order polynomial smoothing curve still shows a downward trend.

Thank you very much for all your hard work on running your website.

Very best wishes,

Mike

John Finn :
You have a very good point! True that,, could you link some evidence that points to other cycles at work within the PDO where these temporary flips are evident? I am surprised at this as sources on both sides of the debate often refer to the PDO 40/30 year cycle and wether this Oscillation has any effect etc, but the time frame is clear.

You see this cooling which we experienced is relative. Relative to a 1950s baseline it is in positive territory but relative to the stasis of 2001-2007 it is in negative territory. Looking at the curve, a drop (cooling) is definately evident, although yes we are not at 60s levels, but we are also not at 30s or 2000s levels where anomalies were higher, so it’s all relative really.

We will have to see what 2009 brings, according to the Farmers Almanac , which is quite effective in their predictions, 2009 will be a cooler year than normal.