I’ve only been here 6 years, but this is the longest stretch of cold weather I’ve seen since I’ve been here. It may not represent any huge historic deviation from the norm, but one thing is for sure, it ain’t gettin any warmer.

I’ve sent you an email to your “home” account.

Mike, for my use, it’s useful, because it is “official.” I wish the “climatology” choices were fully user selectable, though. I’m glad to see more than just the 1961-1990 or 1971-2000 choices, but it doesn’t seem to me that it would be too hard to make the starting and ending years of the baseline “climatology” fully user selectable.

One thing this tool is good for is to compare seasons. I’ve played around with it, for instance, using winter months for years in which there was La Nina, that kind of thing. Cool.

Basil

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/USclimate/USclimdivs.html

Interesting. It can be automated too. More interesting.

OT – If you read this, can you send me Email via http://wermenh.com/contact.html ?
I have a non-science question about your solar Morlet wavelet transform plots.

Thanks.

So he used this tool

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/USclimate/USclimdivs.html

to produce this

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/Climdiv/climdiv.pl?variab=Temperature&type=1&base=1&mon1=12&mon2=3&iy1=1961&iy2=1964&iy3=&iy4=&iy5=&iy6=&iy7=&iy8=&iy9=&iy10=&iy11=&iy12=&iy13=&iy14=&iy15=&iy16=&iy17=&iy18=&iy19=&iy20=&irange1=&irange2=&xlow=&xhi=&xint=&scale=&iwhite=0&Submit=Create+Plot

Again, thanks. I’m glad to find this tool. I have a use for it.

Basil

Proposed NOAA quote ends in ” …pick any professional Industrial standard”.

Which got scrubbed on the previous post.

However I would be far happier if they claimed “NOAA understands effective Data and Configuration Management techniques, and are able to provide 24 hour public access to both current and archived baselines of your data and any software that has been used to process it in accordance with “.

Why “your data” – because the general public has pid for it’s gathering and storage – and if is being used to motivate policies that impact the lives of the general public. Both in themselves are sufficient reasons for an effective data and configuration management system to be in place.

Ref http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=4395#comments and http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=4414 at Climate Audit discussing the typical data mis-management within the AGW camp.

Do either of you know the original source of that “DECMARUS.jpg” map that Joe is using? I’d like to know where it comes from.

Joe replied, saying “It is my forecast using the NOAA CDC tool compositing 1961/62, 1964/65 DJF.” So I think he made a new graph from old data that fit his forecast well.

I am trying… just lack the motivation. I am trying to get some snowfall records from various ski hills and then relate them to the ENSO data. The short term delivery system(2 weeks heads up) of fluffy stuff comes at us based on convection and wind, driven by ENSO. Don’t confuse that with all the longer term (PDO) and unpredictable (MJO) parts to kick our but. Personally this winter looks a lot like last years… possibly. The wild card is the arctic. It’s cold, and when it gets cold we can sometimes have a monster low develop over Saskatchewan that could last for a month. That sucks for skiing.

I think Temp and Precipitation are uncoupled systems if traveling from distance.

Will let you all know if it does snow in London (again) over the weekend. One forecast is saying light sleet on Sunday morning. We shall see…

The two most recent ENSO indices according to http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/table.html read as -0.569 and -0.739.

Perhaps not quite long enough yet to call La Nina, but it seems as if we are on the precipice of another one.

I was curious, so I put some simple charts together that shows how the index looks as you collapse it into longer averages, and I think it’s rather telling. You can find that at http://digitaldiatribes.wordpress.com/2008/11/21/a-quick-look-at-the-enso-index/ if interested.

Also notice that the only really blue (accurate) areas are down near the desert areas of Arizona et. al. I once saw a quote from a weatherman there that if you just predicted “hot and sunny” every day you would be 95% accurate. Think about it… notice that they are not the bright blue of 95%, but a little below? This implies that their forecasts subtract accuracy from “desert -> hot sunny”…

From pkatt (03:19:57) :… Would ya be able to tell the difference between factory and fire emissions?
end quote

I think so. C isotopes ought to be different from recent trees vs. coal and oil that have ages a few million years. I would expect it to be hard to do, though, unless it isn’t, but maybe it’s about average difficulty. ;=)