In any event, the abstract says, in part:

Two global coupled climate models show that even if the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere had been stabilized in the year 2000, we are already committed to further global warming of about another half degree and an additional 320% sea level rise caused by thermal expansion by the end of the 21st century. (Emphasis added.)

So, roughly, a sea level rise of 3.2% a year. So, since 2005 (or a little earlier, given when the paper was submitted), we should have seen a 10% sea level rise since then.

Perhaps they were not expecting a linear distribution of the sea-level rise over the remainder of this century, otherwise I would have to say their prediction has failed.

jcbmack, please accept my profound apology. I was clearly wrong in doubting that you could demonstrate mastery of why malaria is able to do quite well, perhaps even thrive, if very cold climates. I was wrong. You did a magnificent job of it.

And now that you have demonstrated that malaria is both a warm and cold climate disease, I will move on from the topic…

You also said: “California has primarily dry weather, not humid, I live in CA”

I took this to imply that you think that malaria is not a problem for a low humidity place like California. I will also assume I was wrong about what you meant and that you know about the history of malaria in California. For those who are not aware, I’ve added some information below. (The central valley of California can be either dry or humid depending on weather. It always has mosquitos though, unless controlled.)

From: http://www.vetmed.ucdavis.edu/ucmrp/news/malariaawarenessevent.html

UC Davis’ first chancellor, entomologist Stanley Freeborn (1891-1960), wrote the first comprehensive review of mosquitoes in California, Vanderhoef noted. A California mosquito that transmits malaria (Anopheles freeborni), bears Freeborn’s name.

Malaria swept through fur trapper, native Indian, pioneer and gold miner populations, Washino noted. It was eradicated in the 1950s, but outbreaks still occur; the most recent outbreaks surfaced in San Diego County in 1986-89.
[...]
“We have to be vigilant,” Washino warned. “Five of the Anopheline mosquitoes that transmit malaria are still here in California.”

and
Lanzaro predicted the UC Malaria Research and Control Group, with its noted scientists and mosquito abatement experts, will be hugely successful in combating malaria in Africa. “The Mosquito and Vector Control Association of California has the most sophisticated mosquito-control program in the world, and we’re taking that over to Africa,” Lanzaro said.

and further down
Mosquito abatement experts helped wipe out malaria in California and Mulligan predicted “we can do the same in Africa.”

I’m sure you are aware of why California has such a capable vector control program.

From: http://iier.isciii.es/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/00000251.htm we have a couple of cases of malaria from the 1980′s in the central valley of Ca.

Editorial Note: Considering the average 14-day incubation period for vivax malaria, and the travel history of the 2 patients, the infections reported here were most likely acquired in the northern part of California’s Sacramento (Central) Valley. Historically, mosquito-transmitted malaria in California has been confined to the Central Valley where ecologic habitats provided by irrigated farmlands–including fruit orchards and rice fields–are ideal for the breeding of A. freeborni, a highly susceptible vector of vivax malaria. In addition, non-refugee agricultural workers from malarious countries provide a reservoir of vivax parasites in such areas as Sutter and Yuba counties.
and

The patient lives 3 miles south of Marysville in a semi-rural setting next to the Feather River and within 1/4 mile of rice fields and orchards. He had not been employed regularly since December 1980. In the spring and summer of 1981 he did extensive fishing and camping throughout Sutter and Yuba counties, and often received many mosquito bites.

My hospital work was at U.C. Davis medical center (I’m an alumni of U.C.D.) and a local community hospital. I grew up swimming in the Feather River in a town a dozen miles or so from Marysville… Yes, C.V. California IS a malaria zone, though controlled via pesticides, water control, and (as the cases in the above link demonstrate) prompt control of active cases with antibiotics (antimalarials) to control sources of parasites. And we’re taking that road show to Africa.

Sidebar: Completely unrelated, but interesting… Plague is endemic to the rodents of California. Every year we would have a case or two reported to the Yolo County health department. Promptly controlled with antibiotics, so it doesn’t hit the news, but still… The idea that “fluffy” the squirrel might give you Black Death is a bit disconcerting! Every so often some survivalist will rant about how after the quake they will live on squirrel stew and I just shake my head (and cherish my stash of Doxycycline in the fridge…)

With that, I’m done with this thread. We clearly both agree that malaria can live in cold and warm, wet and dry, and that good public health and modern medicine are more important to disease control than anything else.

For further reading;

Climate Process & Change
By Edward Bryant

The Geology of Stratigraphic Sequences
By Andrew D. Miall

1.) there misconceptions as to its effects and relevance to the current climate change discussion and I have seen many try and use it to describe its effects in a manner to discredit global warming. I was not suggesting that the changes describe very short term cooling trends, some posters here have claimed that there has been a several year cooling and even decades worth, here some might argue involvement of seasonal changes, localized weather patterns building up into a global cooling trend.

2.) minor perturbations in the system can be traced, though not usually so short term to milankovitch among other phenomenon which influences orbit, wobble and tilt, to put it simply. So, some localized seasonal effects may influence data collection and graphs one might derive, which may influence results especially with a good deviation from a temp change with a mild room for error.

But now for your dare, I can explain in detail why malaria can, has and will at times spread in cold northern climate regions and potentially other cold areas as well: summer dormancy of hypnozoites and transmission of sporozoites indoors by semiactive hibernating mosquitoes. Variable climate conditions did not change this relationship, but the epidemics brought about by vast numbers of active mosquitoes were still found to be a function of temperature and humidity, which helps in the breeding of anopheles. Preceding summer conditions were still found to be an important factor in the force of the winter malaria breakout and P. Vivax was the major cause of breakouts in Scandinavia and Finland in the nineteenth century. P. falciparum, the most virulent form was not stopped by cold climate, but a short summer or cool summer did not well support the dormant phase. All this information is available on google, google scholar a good under graduate textbook and a graduate textbooks gives some great details on the molecular aspects of the various phases of the four infectious causative agents of malaria.

Nice personal attack, thin on facts though. Name the points. I’m still waiting for you to show how a 20,000ish year periodicity can cause a few hundred year weather cycle. Precession? Axial tilt? Elliptical orbit variance? Polar ice cycles?

The insult style and lack of substance is a very weak argument on your part.

-continue quote
Oh and yes, nets and other adaptations will lower incidence and prevalence of malaria, however, it also certainly a function of temperature and humidity, take a course in microbiology and you will this, John.
-end quote

Again with the personal attack style. What can I say? You are just as wrong on my background as you are on malaria.

I’ve worked on more hospital wards and taken more bio courses at university (including bacteriology & genetics) than I care to think about, thanks. I’ve also had entomology courses which are more relevant here.

I have lived in areas with long histories of malaria but at hospital we saw only a few cases each year. The reason was not nets; it was spray trucks, water trap draining, mosquito fish, and antibiotics. Good public health systems and mosquito abatement districts. This in a place where winters were in the teens F. Hardly ‘warm’. Summers were 100F+ though. Change that to 20s in the winter and 105+ in the summer and not a thing will be different to the mosquitos. Nothing.

Or are you asserting that malaria is running rampant in Florida and the rest of the southeast states along with the central valley of California? They all have plenty of warmth and humidity. And please explain the historic malaria outbreaks in cold climates, like Britain and Russia. I suspect that you can’t.

The notion that a warmer planet means more malaria is fundamentally broken. It’s just scare mongering.