I’m not having a go at you in particular. There are a number of contributors on both sides of the AGW debate who simply post incorrect information. You are by no means the worst. Many have been talking about significant imminent cooling and suggesting that the Arctic is undergoing a downturn in temperatures. It’s NOT!

The Arctic is currently much warmer than normal and has been for some time. Look at any of the anomaly plots, satellite data or surface data. They all tell the same story. The Arctic is much warmer than the 30 year mean.

Now you are suggesting that the Arctic may be about to cool. Perhaps it is – but it would need to cool a significant amount just to get back to mid-1990s levels.

Despite the recent La Nina, solar minimum, PDO switch and so on ALL temperature data shows that the world is currently still warmer than the long term average and, to be honest, I don’t see any evidence that this is going to change significantly in the near future.

Josh, comment at 22:18:50,

“That would probably be Carbon Monoxide coming out of the exhaust (not CO2) a far deadlier gas. (Has been known to be used in suicides).”

Actually, Les, Carbon Dioxide is a major component of diesel exhaust. But you are correct, Carbon Monoxide is also a component of diesel exhaust.

- Josh

Still no indication of a developing La Nina, this is the latest SST anomoly map.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.11.6.2008.gif
If a La Nina does develop it will be a very weak event compared to last years.

You really are a drama queen aren’t you. So the global ice anomoly is slightly below the mean……wow
”

Honestly ice anormaly around zero is not much of a party for 30 years of “DISARSTEROUS CATASTROPHAL CO2 WARMING” is it?
No exactly, there is no drama, correct.

John, arctic temperatures 2008 have been slightly under normal 1958-08 for many months until august when the thin ice melted (!!). THEN of course temperatures rose as a result of sudden open polar ocean (much warmer than ice) that lost a lot of heat to the arctic atmosphere and Siberia. This is in no way interesting if you want to understand the actual trend of global temperatures as respond for example to the state the sun is in right now, and whats going to happen ahead. The polar heat was a unavoidable happenening due to the unusual thin ice.

Now, John, we dont agree fully whats most like for temperatures in the coming weeks, but let it be, we cant change them anyway ;-)
I read the forecasts as mostly cooling, you dont. And?

Do you mean temperatures or anomalies. Temperatures are obviously going to fall because Siberia is heading into winter. But temperatures are still above the seasonal norm. In other words temperature anomalies are high. That as far as I can tell is still the case. Just as Arctic anomalies are still high. In fact most of They might not be as high as last year but, make no mistake, the Arctic temps are still well above the long-term (30 year) mean. Whether they are above what they were in the 1930s is another matter.

But, like it or not, most of the NH is above the long term average.

You really are a drama queen aren’t you. So the global ice anomoly is slightly below the mean……wow

evanjones (10:17:38) :
“He was referring to the anomaly. #B^1″

As far as I can tell Siberia has warm and cold anomolies, it covers a very large area. You can always ask Sarah Palin, she can see it from her house apparently!

But lets wait and see. it was not my intend to use so much writings about this, i just told as is true, that forecasts says cooling. Lets see if it holds.

Are the anomalies [siberian temps] falling ?

….like they do every winter..

There is a tendensy that alarmist mentions warm stories and vice versa. But the thing is, in the media even though temperatures globaly has not risen in 10 years, we constantly hear warming news as though there where still warming going on. Therefore it 100% ok that some blogs makes it clear that there are also cooling stories.

If you want a balance in the media, promote the cooling stories.

I just look at the ordinary forecasts, here for south America:
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp8.html

It shows that we now have anomaly around zero, but next week temperatures will dive markedly -even though south america is headed for summer. So anomalies will go quite negative if the forecast is not totaly wrong.
In general ive have checked all continents from simple forecasts and find that temperature globaly appear to be headed for a dive.

Then ON TOP OF THAT a La Nina seems to start. Still if you ar right that its only a vague La Nina, its likely to cool rather than warm.

Then you mentioning AMSU temp. Please look at my previous post in the present thread. The whole Siberia ha been affected by the open polar waters, of course. Exactly as last year sep-oct where AMSU was raising EVEN THOUGH there was a strong La nina at that time.

In the forecasts now that the polar ice hole is gone, Siberia temperatures are diving fast. This of course will affect upcoming AMSU / global temp.

Unless forecasts worldwide changes A LOT, we will see global temperatures fall dramatically nov-dec-jan. Very exciting…

I’m not sure where you get this from. Global temperatures (or anomalies) are, without doubt, rising following the demise of the recent La Nina. There is a possibility that a weak La Nina may emerge in early 2009 but it’s not likely to amount to much and we can expect to see anomalies back to 2006/2007 levels in the near future.

This whole global cooling nonsense has been completely overblown and a number of people are going to be left with egg on their faces pretty shortly.

Incidentally I haven’t noticed anyone refer to the AMSU temeprature record recently, I wonder why that is?