A quick look at the revised October GISS map shows the lower 48 as well below average. And for GISS, “average” is 1951 – 1980. (I’ve even seen comment that this may be a US conspiracy to prove they are not responsible for GW in order to dodge Kyoto!)

You can see a classic -ive PDO, I notice that the vast majority of the cold temperatures are on the west and would be immediately affected by the -ive PDO.

Well, yeah. That’s the point, isn’t it? PDO flipped warm in 1976. It turned cold after the El Nino ending in 2007. And look at the other five warm/cool multidecadal cycles. They went from cold to warm from 1977 to 2001. Now it looks as if the AO also has done a turn and the NAO may be about to follow suit. Draw it all back further to the 1920s. Do we see a pattern here?

There are underlying factors, I am sure: “recovery” from the end of the LIA (c. 1840), an increase in solar activity and now a huge drop. And yes, human influence, including land use and soot (and even a teeny bit of direct CO2, but without feedback loops).

You clearly must live in some other SE Michigan than I. We couldn’t plant flowers, nor had leaves on the trees till late in the season. Only had the AC on twice. It was the summer that never happened. Same as four years ago.

In case we’ll have a stable climate the political bandwagon claims which claims that the western world must stop its industries may rephrase it as Climate Something…

The little brown and black catepillars are banded to half their length. I say La Nina is returning by the end of Nov.

and: “References available upon request.”

I already asked for a reference but I’ll gladly do it again. Even a Realclimate reference will be appreciated.

Most of we sunworshippers trust, not know, that the sun does regulate the globe’s climate. I believe the mechanism by which it does is modulated through clouds, maybe and maybe not cosmic rays, and the oceanic oscillations. Figuring out the precise mechanisms is beyond human understanding, but perhaps not for much longer.
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The PDO itself is approximately neutral which is why it should be described as a negative (which is what is happening now) and positive. the terms ‘cool’ phase and ‘warm’ phase are misleading. (look at recent SST anomoly maps to see why.
The PDO has historically had an effect on ENSO and it is this that can produce significant warming or cooling. Generally a -ive PDO increases probability of more frequent and stronger La Ninas and the +ive phase more and stronger El Nino. We had a strong La NIna a few months ago that falls into the pattern but to show it is only increased probability rather than a PDO direct cause, the ENSO will be neutral this SH summer.

I’m not excited about a 1-week trend. Since the end of la nina, global temperatures keep increasing. So, we’re basically at the same temperature as last year rightnow. We’ll see in 2009 what’s going to happen, but since the solar cycle (finally) seems to have started, we should see a nice increase.

The global circulation models (which are not “mine” by the way) predict troposphere warming and a “hot spot” a little above it, as can be read in the IPCC report or (if you prefer blogs) at Real Climate. This trend is confirmed by measurements, even at the tropics where people thought for some time that the hot spot was not present. References available upon request.

…LOW TEMPERATURE SHATTERS RECORDS AT JACKSONVILLE THIS MORNING…

THE TEMPERATURE AT JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT DROPPED TO 33
DEGREES AT 743 AM THIS MORNING…SETTING A NEW RECORD FOR THE DATE.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 39 DEGREES SET IN 1987.

NOT ONLY WAS THIS A NEW RECORD FOR THE DAY…IT IS ALSO THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR OCTOBER GOING BACK TO 1871…AND…IT IS
THE COLDEST READING SO EARLY IN THE FALL SEASON.

LOW TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE AROUND JACKSONVILLE INCLUDE…

CECIL FIELD……. 30 DEGREES
CRAIG FIELD……. 38 DEGREES
JACKSONVILLE NAS.. 38 DEGREES
MAYPORT NS…….. 41 DEGREES

Lots of low temperature records being set from North Carolina down to the Florida panhandle.

Meanwhile, the weather has been amazing here in San Diego and the monthly average is about 4 degrees above normal. Oct 2008 is the first month in at least 18 months that was above normal.

You can’t win. The Marys of this world will do their best to see to that.

Did anyone notice that the AMSU global temperatures are rightnow simply the highest ever measured for this time of the year? This once again points in the direction that temperatures are increasing again after the huge la nina we had… So much for the “predicted” global cooling…

You are getting excited about a trend that is only a week old?

Do you fully understand what a PDO is and how it affects global temperature, not just USA temperatures? The PDO itself doesn’t affect global temperatures, it’s how it affects the ENSO that determines global temperatures. It was the La nina earlier this year/last year that caused global temperatures to falls lightly, now that effect is diminished we are seeing lower troposphere temperatures rise (as Flanagan pointed out earlier).

Let’s go with this for a minute. It sounds like maybe you are trying to say that the PDO is ultimately neutral with respect to long term global temperature trends. Okay, say that it is. If you’ve made any serious study of long term temperature trends, you’ll know that most of the “global warming” of the second half of the 20th century coincides with the 1976 “great climate shift” flip of the PDO to its warm phase. So if we’re going to “ignore” the current cooling because it is just the PDO, then we likewise need to ignore most, or maybe even all, of the warming from 1976-2000 because it was just the PDO.

What’s sauce for the goose…