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	<title>Comments on: Sea ice area approaching the edge of normal standard deviation</title>
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	<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/22/sea-ice-approaching-the-edge-of-normal-standard-deviation/</link>
	<description>The world&#039;s most viewed site on global warming and climate change</description>
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		<title>By: Mary Hinge</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/22/sea-ice-approaching-the-edge-of-normal-standard-deviation/#comment-54272</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mary Hinge]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Nov 2008 11:37:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=3787#comment-54272</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[kim (12:05:00) :
&quot;....it seems that you ought to know better than to argue that the atmosphere heats and cools the oceans....&quot;

I assumed you had at least a basic idea of heat transfer in dynamic systems. No where did I say the atmosphere heats the ocean, I did say that the atmospheric conditions will affect the rate of ocean cooling, surely you agree with that! 

&quot;Furthermore, the four years of oceanic cooling to two miles deep .......&quot;

Do not confuse metric and imperial measurements, a common source of errors in junior school classes, use km and not miles . Argo/Argos meaurements are what you must be referring to, homepage here http://www-argo.ucsd.edu/
These measure the upper 2km depth of the oceans and, because of  the sea ice, there are fewer Argo bouys in the Arctic and Antarctic waters. Another factor to remember is that the average ocean depth is 3.5km. 

edcon (13:03:38) : 
&quot;Mary Hinge’s thought processes may be revealing about her apparent lack of blog etiquette.&quot;

I have not insulted Kim at all, read the posts! It is up to the reader to determine the thought processes, I can see what she is doing, I am sure others will to. Why are you so sensitive? 
Sometimes I think I am in a scientific debate instead of a blog. It is only when your debatee constantly fails to provide any evidence for their argument, uses false quotations and mixes up imperial and metric measurements then you realise this is just a blog.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>kim (12:05:00) :<br />
&#8220;&#8230;.it seems that you ought to know better than to argue that the atmosphere heats and cools the oceans&#8230;.&#8221;</p>
<p>I assumed you had at least a basic idea of heat transfer in dynamic systems. No where did I say the atmosphere heats the ocean, I did say that the atmospheric conditions will affect the rate of ocean cooling, surely you agree with that! </p>
<p>&#8220;Furthermore, the four years of oceanic cooling to two miles deep &#8230;&#8230;.&#8221;</p>
<p>Do not confuse metric and imperial measurements, a common source of errors in junior school classes, use km and not miles . Argo/Argos meaurements are what you must be referring to, homepage here <a href="http://www-argo.ucsd.edu/" rel="nofollow">http://www-argo.ucsd.edu/</a><br />
These measure the upper 2km depth of the oceans and, because of  the sea ice, there are fewer Argo bouys in the Arctic and Antarctic waters. Another factor to remember is that the average ocean depth is 3.5km. </p>
<p>edcon (13:03:38) :<br />
&#8220;Mary Hinge’s thought processes may be revealing about her apparent lack of blog etiquette.&#8221;</p>
<p>I have not insulted Kim at all, read the posts! It is up to the reader to determine the thought processes, I can see what she is doing, I am sure others will to. Why are you so sensitive?<br />
Sometimes I think I am in a scientific debate instead of a blog. It is only when your debatee constantly fails to provide any evidence for their argument, uses false quotations and mixes up imperial and metric measurements then you realise this is just a blog.</p>
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		<title>By: kim</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/22/sea-ice-approaching-the-edge-of-normal-standard-deviation/#comment-53796</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[kim]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Nov 2008 20:38:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=3787#comment-53796</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[edcon (13:03:38)  Someday she&#039;ll learn that insults are a hallmark, but not a pathognomonic sign, of a failing argument.  I&#039;ve run into so much bluster and bluff from true believers on other boards that I take it as a sign of weakness.  It may not be in this case(what is sea level doing, anyway) but it is certainly suggestive.
===========================================]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>edcon (13:03:38)  Someday she&#8217;ll learn that insults are a hallmark, but not a pathognomonic sign, of a failing argument.  I&#8217;ve run into so much bluster and bluff from true believers on other boards that I take it as a sign of weakness.  It may not be in this case(what is sea level doing, anyway) but it is certainly suggestive.<br />
===========================================</p>
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		<title>By: edcon</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/22/sea-ice-approaching-the-edge-of-normal-standard-deviation/#comment-53783</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[edcon]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Nov 2008 20:03:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=3787#comment-53783</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[kim (11:53:53) :

Mary Hinge’s thought processes may be revealing about her apparent lack of blog etiquette.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>kim (11:53:53) :</p>
<p>Mary Hinge’s thought processes may be revealing about her apparent lack of blog etiquette.</p>
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		<title>By: kim</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/22/sea-ice-approaching-the-edge-of-normal-standard-deviation/#comment-53768</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[kim]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Nov 2008 19:05:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=3787#comment-53768</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Mary, when you consider that the heat content of the oceans is very much greater than the heat content of the atmosphere, it seems that you ought to know better than to argue that the atmosphere heats and cools the oceans rather than the other way around.  So, what about it?
=============================================]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mary, when you consider that the heat content of the oceans is very much greater than the heat content of the atmosphere, it seems that you ought to know better than to argue that the atmosphere heats and cools the oceans rather than the other way around.  So, what about it?<br />
=============================================</p>
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		<title>By: kim</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/22/sea-ice-approaching-the-edge-of-normal-standard-deviation/#comment-53764</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[kim]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Nov 2008 18:53:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=3787#comment-53764</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Mary Hinge (08:41:08)  Look, they tell us that the data from Jason is problematic, then put out two data points off in isolation that are not in line with the other data, and you expect me to be persuaded?

Also, if the Los Ninos and Las Ninas do effect the volume of the ocean, and hence the sea level, it looks to me like the volume and sea level change precede the atmospheric manifestation.  So you have your causality backward.  I wish I could remember who said &#039;The climate is the continuation of the ocean by other means&#039;.

I&#039;ve been studying this stuff for several years, now, and my understanding and beliefs have undergone a number of sea changes.  Can you say the same about yourself?  When are you going to question your underlying assumption that climate is exquisitely sensitive to CO2.  How cold does it have to get? 

I&#039;m just a little amused that a true believer like yourself criticizes a skeptic like myself in the manner you have.  You&#039;ve got that part backwards, too.
===========================================]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mary Hinge (08:41:08)  Look, they tell us that the data from Jason is problematic, then put out two data points off in isolation that are not in line with the other data, and you expect me to be persuaded?</p>
<p>Also, if the Los Ninos and Las Ninas do effect the volume of the ocean, and hence the sea level, it looks to me like the volume and sea level change precede the atmospheric manifestation.  So you have your causality backward.  I wish I could remember who said &#8216;The climate is the continuation of the ocean by other means&#8217;.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve been studying this stuff for several years, now, and my understanding and beliefs have undergone a number of sea changes.  Can you say the same about yourself?  When are you going to question your underlying assumption that climate is exquisitely sensitive to CO2.  How cold does it have to get? </p>
<p>I&#8217;m just a little amused that a true believer like yourself criticizes a skeptic like myself in the manner you have.  You&#8217;ve got that part backwards, too.<br />
===========================================</p>
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		<title>By: Mary Hinge</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/22/sea-ice-approaching-the-edge-of-normal-standard-deviation/#comment-53755</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mary Hinge]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Nov 2008 18:21:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=3787#comment-53755</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Mike Bryant (07:39:45) : 
&quot;Dennis Ward,
If you really have an open mind, you should stay since you can see and hear both sides here. &quot;

I am in total agreement with Mike here Dennis (put that in a diary as a red letter day!). There is nothing like healthy debate to help you learn about what is a very complex subject. A lot of posters do produce good sources of information and it all helps stimulate the intellectual juices!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mike Bryant (07:39:45) :<br />
&#8220;Dennis Ward,<br />
If you really have an open mind, you should stay since you can see and hear both sides here. &#8221;</p>
<p>I am in total agreement with Mike here Dennis (put that in a diary as a red letter day!). There is nothing like healthy debate to help you learn about what is a very complex subject. A lot of posters do produce good sources of information and it all helps stimulate the intellectual juices!</p>
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		<title>By: Mary Hinge</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/22/sea-ice-approaching-the-edge-of-normal-standard-deviation/#comment-53728</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mary Hinge]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Nov 2008 15:41:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=3787#comment-53728</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[kim (07:15:51) :

Try not to think in one dimension for a change. At first glance it would seem logical to assume that a warm water event results in more evaporation than a cool event. Bear in mind that the air above the initial upwelled cold sub-surface water is cooler and drier than during a neutral or El Nino episode. There is also an increase in the trade wind speed, put the two together and this results in greater evaporation (using the body sweat anology again, if you work out in cool, dry air the sweat evaporates very quickly, in humid conditions the sweat doesn&#039;t evaporate as fast). But don&#039;t take my word on it, this is the important part of this paper : 
Gautier C. Peterson P. and  Jones C. Global Estimation of Freshwater Fluxes and Freshwater Oceanic Transport from Satellite Data, World Water Resources Vol 8, No. 4 pg 505-514.1996

&quot;Evaporation exceeds precipitation by about 200 cm year-1 during the La Niña conditions of 1988-89, whereas precipitation exceeds evaporation by about 200 cm year-1 during the El Niño of 1991-92.&quot;

&quot;And if Jason’s data is not available......&quot;

If you don&#039;t believe the data, fine. Whatever data anyone, or any organisation presents that goes against your preset ideas you&#039;re going to ignore anyway. 

&quot;You are simply not persuasive&quot;

With your answers revealing your thought processes, I really couldn&#039;t care less]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>kim (07:15:51) :</p>
<p>Try not to think in one dimension for a change. At first glance it would seem logical to assume that a warm water event results in more evaporation than a cool event. Bear in mind that the air above the initial upwelled cold sub-surface water is cooler and drier than during a neutral or El Nino episode. There is also an increase in the trade wind speed, put the two together and this results in greater evaporation (using the body sweat anology again, if you work out in cool, dry air the sweat evaporates very quickly, in humid conditions the sweat doesn&#8217;t evaporate as fast). But don&#8217;t take my word on it, this is the important part of this paper :<br />
Gautier C. Peterson P. and  Jones C. Global Estimation of Freshwater Fluxes and Freshwater Oceanic Transport from Satellite Data, World Water Resources Vol 8, No. 4 pg 505-514.1996</p>
<p>&#8220;Evaporation exceeds precipitation by about 200 cm year-1 during the La Niña conditions of 1988-89, whereas precipitation exceeds evaporation by about 200 cm year-1 during the El Niño of 1991-92.&#8221;</p>
<p>&#8220;And if Jason’s data is not available&#8230;&#8230;&#8221;</p>
<p>If you don&#8217;t believe the data, fine. Whatever data anyone, or any organisation presents that goes against your preset ideas you&#8217;re going to ignore anyway. </p>
<p>&#8220;You are simply not persuasive&#8221;</p>
<p>With your answers revealing your thought processes, I really couldn&#8217;t care less</p>
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		<title>By: Mike Bryant</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/22/sea-ice-approaching-the-edge-of-normal-standard-deviation/#comment-53704</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Bryant]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Nov 2008 14:39:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=3787#comment-53704</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Dennis Ward,
If you really have an open mind, you should stay since you can see and hear both sides here. If, however, you prefer an echo chamber with the same old ideas bouncing around forever, there are many, many sites you can go to. I would recommend Real Climate. Of course if you make a comment there like the one you just did here, it will be promptly deleted. So make sure you hold up the party line there.
Thanks for visiting,
Mike Bryant]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dennis Ward,<br />
If you really have an open mind, you should stay since you can see and hear both sides here. If, however, you prefer an echo chamber with the same old ideas bouncing around forever, there are many, many sites you can go to. I would recommend Real Climate. Of course if you make a comment there like the one you just did here, it will be promptly deleted. So make sure you hold up the party line there.<br />
Thanks for visiting,<br />
Mike Bryant</p>
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		<title>By: kim</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/22/sea-ice-approaching-the-edge-of-normal-standard-deviation/#comment-53699</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[kim]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Nov 2008 14:15:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=3787#comment-53699</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Mary Hinge (05:42:07)  There would be less evaporation during a La Nina than during an El Nino.  You have something backward here.

And if Jason&#039;s data is not available, whence the two orphaned dots on your sea level graph?  Also, see the latest thread for more doubt about 3.4mm/yr rise.

You are simply not persuasive, sorry.  I&#039;m sure you&#039;ve convinced yourself.
===========================================]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mary Hinge (05:42:07)  There would be less evaporation during a La Nina than during an El Nino.  You have something backward here.</p>
<p>And if Jason&#8217;s data is not available, whence the two orphaned dots on your sea level graph?  Also, see the latest thread for more doubt about 3.4mm/yr rise.</p>
<p>You are simply not persuasive, sorry.  I&#8217;m sure you&#8217;ve convinced yourself.<br />
===========================================</p>
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		<title>By: Mary Hinge</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/22/sea-ice-approaching-the-edge-of-normal-standard-deviation/#comment-53675</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mary Hinge]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Nov 2008 12:42:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=3787#comment-53675</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[kim (13:01:36) : 
&quot; Surface cooling will not thermally contract enough water to lower sea level, at least not within our capacity to measure it. &quot;

An efficient cooling mechanism such as evaporation will if over a sufficiently large area, don&#039;t forget how large an area the Pacific covers!

 &quot;I don’t think individual Las Ninas or Los Ninos have much effect on sea level&quot;

As further evidence look at the 1997-1998 levels where the sea levels rose during that strong El Nino.

&quot;Now, the PDO, that is another thing.&quot;

As has been discussed before the PDO phases are in effect neutral, it is their effect on ENSO that determines temerature changes.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>kim (13:01:36) :<br />
&#8221; Surface cooling will not thermally contract enough water to lower sea level, at least not within our capacity to measure it. &#8221;</p>
<p>An efficient cooling mechanism such as evaporation will if over a sufficiently large area, don&#8217;t forget how large an area the Pacific covers!</p>
<p> &#8220;I don’t think individual Las Ninas or Los Ninos have much effect on sea level&#8221;</p>
<p>As further evidence look at the 1997-1998 levels where the sea levels rose during that strong El Nino.</p>
<p>&#8220;Now, the PDO, that is another thing.&#8221;</p>
<p>As has been discussed before the PDO phases are in effect neutral, it is their effect on ENSO that determines temerature changes.</p>
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		<title>By: dennis ward</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/22/sea-ice-approaching-the-edge-of-normal-standard-deviation/#comment-53519</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[dennis ward]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 31 Oct 2008 21:02:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=3787#comment-53519</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[/// Rob (16:40:49) :


Sea ice area approaching the edge of normal standard deviation Oct 2008,
Do you actually believe this BBC garbage, of cause you don`t. //

I don&#039;t always believe the BBC  and I certainly don&#039;t believe much of the garbage posted on here but I do give some credence to current data rather than the cherry-picked data that some people on this site worship. They denigrate ANY data that counters their belief, calling it unreliable, but then have the brazen cheek to use the data from the same sources as definitive proof if the data agrees with their beliefs over a selected period. I like to keep an open mind so maybe this board is not for me.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>/// Rob (16:40:49) :</p>
<p>Sea ice area approaching the edge of normal standard deviation Oct 2008,<br />
Do you actually believe this BBC garbage, of cause you don`t. //</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t always believe the BBC  and I certainly don&#8217;t believe much of the garbage posted on here but I do give some credence to current data rather than the cherry-picked data that some people on this site worship. They denigrate ANY data that counters their belief, calling it unreliable, but then have the brazen cheek to use the data from the same sources as definitive proof if the data agrees with their beliefs over a selected period. I like to keep an open mind so maybe this board is not for me.</p>
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		<title>By: kim</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/22/sea-ice-approaching-the-edge-of-normal-standard-deviation/#comment-53490</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[kim]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 31 Oct 2008 20:12:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=3787#comment-53490</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Note, too, the ice area anomoly rising dramatically again back toward the mean of the last thirty years, with little chance of it turning back around again, soon, unless your Los Ninos come out of nowhere.  This is, of course, a very short term trend, so far.  The Antarctic surprised me this last SH winter.
======================================]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Note, too, the ice area anomoly rising dramatically again back toward the mean of the last thirty years, with little chance of it turning back around again, soon, unless your Los Ninos come out of nowhere.  This is, of course, a very short term trend, so far.  The Antarctic surprised me this last SH winter.<br />
======================================</p>
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		<title>By: kim</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/22/sea-ice-approaching-the-edge-of-normal-standard-deviation/#comment-53485</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[kim]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 31 Oct 2008 20:07:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=3787#comment-53485</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Nitpicking here, but your link is to ice area anomoly, not ice extent.  Don&#039;t be confused.
=============================================]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nitpicking here, but your link is to ice area anomoly, not ice extent.  Don&#8217;t be confused.<br />
=============================================</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: kim</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/22/sea-ice-approaching-the-edge-of-normal-standard-deviation/#comment-53483</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[kim]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 31 Oct 2008 20:05:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=3787#comment-53483</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Furthermore, the four years of oceanic cooling to two miles deep corresponds to the approximately four years of cooling seen in the atmospheric temperature trends.  I don&#039;t think individual Las Ninas or Los Ninos have much effect on sea level.  Now, the PDO, that is another thing.  Too bad we don&#039;t have TOPEX/Jason back to the last time that the PDO was in a cooling phase.
========================================]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Furthermore, the four years of oceanic cooling to two miles deep corresponds to the approximately four years of cooling seen in the atmospheric temperature trends.  I don&#8217;t think individual Las Ninas or Los Ninos have much effect on sea level.  Now, the PDO, that is another thing.  Too bad we don&#8217;t have TOPEX/Jason back to the last time that the PDO was in a cooling phase.<br />
========================================</p>
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		<title>By: kim</title>
		<link>http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/22/sea-ice-approaching-the-edge-of-normal-standard-deviation/#comment-53480</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[kim]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 31 Oct 2008 20:01:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=3787#comment-53480</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Mary Hinge (10:53:40)  Surface cooling will not thermally contract enough water to lower sea level, at least not within our capacity to measure it.  You&#039;ve not convinced me that the La Nina cooling penetrated deeply enough to lower sea level.  I think the lowering of sea level is from thermal contraction and my rationale is the four years of slight oceanic cooling to two miles deep as measured by the Argos buoys.  I agree, though, that if your two orphaned data points have validity, then maybe sea level isn&#039;t dropping.
===============================================]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mary Hinge (10:53:40)  Surface cooling will not thermally contract enough water to lower sea level, at least not within our capacity to measure it.  You&#8217;ve not convinced me that the La Nina cooling penetrated deeply enough to lower sea level.  I think the lowering of sea level is from thermal contraction and my rationale is the four years of slight oceanic cooling to two miles deep as measured by the Argos buoys.  I agree, though, that if your two orphaned data points have validity, then maybe sea level isn&#8217;t dropping.<br />
===============================================</p>
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