Comments on: Speck spotted – looks to be cycle 23

By: Leif Svalgaard

Leif Svalgaard — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 16:03:36 +0000

Pamela Gray (09:56:20) :
In either case, what would explain the sudden elevation of neutron particles

Pamela, here is the explanation:

me: Ilya,
You have a problem with the Neutron monitor counts at Oulu. October 11 and 12.
reply:
Dear Leif,
Thank you – I know the problem. I am away now, and my student interchanged the channels – pressure uncorrected data are shown since 11/10. It will be fixed tonight.
Best regards,
Ilya
Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory (Oulu unit)

By: Leif Svalgaard

Leif Svalgaard — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 15:25:13 +0000

Pamela Gray (09:56:20) :
In either case, what would explain the sudden elevation of neutron particles
Moscow also shows no enhancement, so the jump at Oulu [there is another one today] is definitely an instrumental problem.

By: Leif Svalgaard

Leif Svalgaard — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 21:37:18 +0000

Christopher (10:25:15) : So MR Svalgaard. So do you think of the biggest sc24 sunspot? It seems everybody thinks that sc24 is on it way up now from this. Or we still have a longs ways to min.? At some point we should have some SC24 spots, so it is not surprising that we do. These new spots are not 'big' in any real sense. Whether we are a minimum is hard to say because the minimum is not a single physical thing, but depends on how you define it. That said, a minimum in, say August 2008, probably would not be far off the mark, but this is guesswork.

By: Leif Svalgaard

Leif Svalgaard — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 21:29:31 +0000

Pamela Gray (09:56:20) :
In either case, what would explain the sudden elevation of neutron particles?
I have data from another station Lomnicky Stit in Slovakia. If one plots the counts from Lomnicky and Oulu [normalized to the same percentage at the left-hand half of the graph] for the past month, one gets:
http://www.leif.org/research/Pamela1.png

You can see that such jumps occur in the record [at different times a different stations]. These data are preliminary only and must be ‘cleaned up’ before publication. Plotting real-time data is always at ones own risk, and one should not overinterpret ‘mysterious’ changes. That said, it will be interesting to see the next couple of days what several stations report.

By: Leif Svalgaard

Leif Svalgaard — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 18:11:06 +0000

[...] conduit.
A magnetic field is what is called a ‘vector’ quantity [...]

My keyboard [or my old stiff fingers] seems to have a problem with a stuck SHIFT key….

By: Leif Svalgaard

Leif Svalgaard — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 18:08:57 +0000

Pamela Gray (09:56:20) :
I think I recall you writing back regarding one of my questions that Bz can go negative. Explain to me again what that is and your comment that cosmic rays then have a conduit.
A magnetic field is what is called a ‘vector’ quantity [unlike temperature, for instance]. Vectors have a strength and a direction [the compass needle points north - except Chinese needles that point south :-), really - no kidding]. One way to describe a vector is the give three numbers: how much of the field is pointing towards the Sun [Bx], how much along the east-west direction [By], and how much down-up (or north-south) [Bz]. Since the Earth’s field is mainly south-north, it is the Bz part that can easily connect.
The Galactic cosmic rays do not care about such tiny details and just slam into the Earth’s atmosphere with much ado. Very rarely, there will be Solar cosmic rays and those do depend on the details of the connection between the two fields.

Is it the solar wind that can go negative?
No.

In either case, what would explain the sudden elevation of neutron particles?
This is most likely an instrumental problem at Oulu.
Check Moscow tomorrow to see if they have it too. My prediction is that they will not. How is that for sticking my neck out?

By: Pamela Gray

Pamela Gray — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 17:45:10 +0000

So when it is negative, it is pointing where? Please remind me of what you said about linking up or creating a hole that particles can pass through. Is it a cycle? Or does it happen without any kind of regular pattern? It seems to stay mostly positive (IE pointing elsewhere?).

By: Christopher

Christopher — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 17:25:15 +0000

So MR Svalgaard. So do you think of the biggest sc24 sunspot? It seems everybody thinks that sc24 is on it way up now from this. Or we still have a longs ways to min.?

By: Leif Svalgaard

Leif Svalgaard — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 17:03:38 +0000

[...] magnetic field, essentially linking them together.
The solar wind field at large near the Earth usually points [...]

By: Leif Svalgaard

Leif Svalgaard — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 17:01:47 +0000

Pamela Gray (09:27:57) : I just checked the polarity of the solar magnetic field and it is clearly in the negative range The polarity is just which way the field is pointing, not its strength. There is also an uptick in the solar wind There is one [or more] every solar rotation. The particular one today has been with us for years, faithfully returning every 27 days. When it finally dies, SC24 will be finally on its way. From what I have gleaned from Leif’s discussion, this condition sets up a solar magnetic route into Earth’s magnetic field, essentially linking them together. The solar wind field at large near the Earth usually points East or West [that is the polarity] depending on which side of the Heliospheric Current Sheet we are on. In addition, there are much shorter periods where the field can wobble North and South. It is when the field is pointing South that the best connection exists. One would then expect to see a surge in cosmic ray particles getting to the measuring sites on Earth. No, the Galactic cosmic ray flux is largely determined by the state of the whole heliosphere [not particularly near the Earth] and will decrease with solar activity picking up. Still "cool" though.

By: Pamela Gray

Pamela Gray — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 16:56:20 +0000

I think I recall you writing back regarding one of my questions that Bz can go negative. Explain to me again what that is and your comment that cosmic rays then have a conduit. Is it the solar wind that can go negative? In either case, what would explain the sudden elevation of neutron particles?

By: Leif Svalgaard

Leif Svalgaard — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 16:36:17 +0000

Pamela Gray (09:01:24) :
Cosmic ray measurements are headed up, up, up! Planetary K index is also up. And a mid latitude aurora showed up. If the Sun’s magnetic field is still languishing in the basement and/or dips into the negative range, this stuff could come right at us.
New solar activity will cause cosmic ray to come down again [with a few months lag]. The Sun’s magnetic field strength cannot go negative [ever!], and probably has hit bottom [at around a tad larger than 4 nT] by now.

By: Pamela Gray

Pamela Gray — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 16:27:57 +0000

Take a peak at recent neutron measures!
http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/

I just checked the polarity of the solar magnetic field and it is clearly in the negative range. There is also an uptick in the solar wind. From what I have gleaned from Leif’s discussion, this condition sets up a solar magnetic route into Earth’s magnetic field, essentially linking them together. One would then expect to see a surge in cosmic ray particles getting to the measuring sites on Earth. Cool.

By: Pamela Gray

Pamela Gray — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 16:01:24 +0000

I monitor both ozone and neutron/cosmic ray stuff. Cosmic ray measurements are headed up, up, up! Planetary K index is also up. And a mid latitude aurora showed up. If the Sun’s magnetic field is still languishing in the basement and/or dips into the negative range, this stuff could come right at us.

By: John-X

John-X — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 15:41:12 +0000

STEREO “Behind” Image shows an even larger, even higher latitude region just now rotating into view.

http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/beacon/beacon_secchi.shtml