Comments on: New paper from Christy suggests atmosphere hit max CO2 forcing in 1998, feedback missing

By: Ken Fabos

Ken Fabos — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 08:46:40 +0000

Coolers – can you take the Year After 1998 Challenge?

If it’s been cooling since 1998, what’s it been doing since 1999? Do you think you know? Are you sure cooling is really clear and strong? Proven? Since 1998, right? But has it cooled since 1999?!
This shouldn’t be hard, since 1999 was quite hot – sixth hottest on record at the time but it’s down to thirteenth. Sixth in 1999. Thirteenth now. Go figure. It’s still in the top 20 so it’s not a deliberately low bar to get this clear cooling trend in under. Being less well known 1999 should be able to avoid most of the controversy and bickering we get with 1998 and be more able to demonstrate recent trends.
A clear cooling trend doesn’t need, shouldn’t need, a single unusually hot year and controversial yearto prove it’s a trend – a real trend will show itself clearly and reveal the truth about warming without it. So check it out. Let me know how much cooler it’s been since 1999.

Check out 1999, the year coolers don’t want to talk about.

For global temps see this graph at GISS (note that you are automatically counted as conspiracy theory nutter if you say that’s an unreliable source). Email complaints to them at GISS if you truly believe they are wrong and you aren’t worried that they’ll laugh.
Ken Fabos.

By: Leif Svalgaard

Leif Svalgaard — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 22:11:58 +0000

Glenn (21:54:48) :
temps are approaching those of 100 years ago, within perhaps .2C, and July dropped to roughly the same as was in 1880.

http://www.newscientist.com/data/images/ns/cms/dn11639/dn11639-2_808.jpg
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/uah_august2008.png

You must be joking. The average temp for 2008 is about what 2000 was according to the second graph. Now look at the temps for 2000 in the first graph.
Here are the numbers:
2008 +0.295 July +0.397
2000 +0.277
1880 -0.250 July -0.257
but the cheery-picked high point in 1880 is not a hundred years ago, that was 1908:
1908 -0.554 July -0.529

I shall be even stronger. This is not a joke. This is scientific dishonesty.

By: Glenn

Glenn — Sun, 21 Sep 2008 04:54:48 +0000

“Solar activity is back to where it was 100 years ago, but temps are not.”

http://yesserver.space.swri.edu/yes2003/solaractcyc.html

Not really back yet to where it was 100 years ago, but temps are approaching those of 100 years ago, within perhaps .2C, and July dropped to roughly the same as was in 1880.

http://www.newscientist.com/data/images/ns/cms/dn11639/dn11639-2_808.jpg
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/uah_august2008.png

By: Other voices on climate change » We can’t image what else it could be

Other voices on climate change » We can’t image what else it could be — Sun, 21 Sep 2008 04:16:04 +0000

[...] I am still reading the new Douglas and Christy paper, so I won’t comment on it yet, but you can see Anthony Watts thoughts here. [...]

By: Leif Svalgaard

Leif Svalgaard — Sun, 21 Sep 2008 00:46:28 +0000

Ric Werme (17:10:35) :
You’re more likely to get a lecture for misspelling Leif. :-)
I have kind of given up on that … Even people in New England misspell it, although my name ‘rimes’ with their ‘either’

By: Ric Werme

Ric Werme — Sun, 21 Sep 2008 00:10:35 +0000

David Duff (14:39:15) :

…. I have enjoyed ‘The Glenn & Lief Show’ (or ‘The Lief & Glenn Show’ – I really don’t want a lecture from the “gloomy Dane”, or whatever, for not giving him top billing) …

You’re more likely to get a lecture for misspelling Leif. :-)

By: David Duff

David Duff — Sat, 20 Sep 2008 21:39:15 +0000

With the sort of grit, stamina and determination that you would expect of an old paratrooper (actually, very old!) I have struggled through this long thread understanding about as much detail as you would expect for a man who failed his Maths, Physics and Chemistry exams at the age of 16. I have enjoyed ‘The Glenn & Lief Show’ (or ‘The Lief & Glenn Show’ – I really don’t want a lecture from the “gloomy Dane”, or whatever, for not giving him top billing) and I detect a situation perfectly explained and encapsulated by the brilliant and incomparable ‘anna v (09:08:58)’ who explains in pellucid English the intractable complexity of it all and the foolishness of anyone believing for a second that they have the one and only final answer. I award her the ‘Duff & Nonsense Prize’ for English and Physics – and commonsense! (If only she had been around to teach me physics all those years ago.)

By: Mary Hinge

Mary Hinge — Sat, 20 Sep 2008 19:34:36 +0000

Mike Bryant (07:32:47) :
” And the people on this tiny bit of crust and moisture will control this wildly spinning earth by passing laws and removing our freedom.
What a frightening thought!”

I think you may have stumbled on the perfect definition of politics!

By: JamesG

JamesG — Sat, 20 Sep 2008 15:35:04 +0000

Mary
the lack of contrails around 9/11showed a larger fluctuation ie cooler at night and warmer by day but no change in the average. The range increased by 1.1 degrees Celcius so yes it is interesting how much contrails affect us. Just google “911 contrails”.

By: Mike Bryant

Mike Bryant — Sat, 20 Sep 2008 14:32:47 +0000

Mary,
“put the earth the same size as a billiard ball and the crust wouldn’t even be the thickness of a coat of varnish” also the seas and all water on earth like mere moisture on the same billiard ball. And the people on this tiny bit of crust and moisture will control this wildly spinning earth by passing laws and removing our freedom.
What a frightening thought!
Mike

By: Mary Hinge

Mary Hinge — Sat, 20 Sep 2008 13:52:42 +0000

plaxio (05:13:12) :
“Mary Hinge: “Available evidence shows that there is no correlation between sunspot activity and the LIA and MWP”

Yeah sure Mary, I’ll go along with that…..”
Good for you, progress at last!

Glenn (14:23:33) :

“How about other events? Is all tectonic activity relatable to the Indonesia event?”

Off course not, the example illustrates that even with an extremely large one on 20 year event the effect on sea level is miniscule.

“Are you saying that the Indonesia event caused a global sea level increase?”

yes, it has been recorded at 0.1mm….please read post again if not sure

“Have you considered the variability of gravity due to the effects of tectonic movement?”

Bearing in mind how thin the crust is on the earth (put the earth the same size as a billiard ball and the crust wouldn’t even be the thickness of a coat of varnish). Any changes in gravity would be extremely small and any possible effects on seal level would be minnutissimal. I think the words ‘of’ ‘Barrel’, ‘the’, ‘Scraping’ ‘the’ and ‘bottom’ apply to your argument now, rearrange the words how you see fit.

By: beng

beng — Sat, 20 Sep 2008 13:48:05 +0000

Maybe OT alittle, but I think Spencer’s paper below is very important concerning climate sensitivity empirically determined compared to what the GCMs currently use:

http://climatesci.org/wp-content/uploads/spencer-ppt.pdf

He uses relatively simple methods on satellite temp data.

By: Mary Hinge

Mary Hinge — Sat, 20 Sep 2008 12:39:17 +0000

Mike Bryant (02:19:20) :

“http://www.physorg.com/news140873176.html

Article about a new study that says aerosols (smog) is making the earth cooler. But when China and others clean up their act… look out!”

The ‘Global Dimming’ is very interesting. I remember that measurements were taken when the air traffic over the USA was stopped in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and I think I remembered they showed a noticeable warming as the con trails were no longer a factor. I haven’t got anything firmer than that so any links would be welcome

By: Mike Bryant

Mike Bryant — Sat, 20 Sep 2008 09:19:20 +0000

http://www.physorg.com/news140873176.html

Article about a new study that says aerosols (smog) is making the earth cooler. But when China and others clean up their act… look out!

By: Mary Hinge

Mary Hinge — Sat, 20 Sep 2008 08:11:46 +0000

Neil Crafter (15:45:07) :
“I note Mary Hinge’s favourite source of statistics appears to be Australia’s CSIRO. ”

Strewth mate, you ol’ cobber! No, I use CSIRO because they use up to date data, see posts above about University of Colorado, they seem to have a problem and are only using data to February.
P.S. I can’t be Oz, my favourite sports hero is Ian Botham…C’mon Beefy!