nsidc amsr difference
2002 5,59 5,65 0,06
2003 5,94 6,04 0,1
2004 5,72 5,78 0,06
2005 5,40 5,31 -0,09
2006 5,80 5,84 0,04
2007 4,15 4,25 0,1
2008 4,52 4,75 0,23

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/pub/DATASETS/seaice/polar-stereo/nasateam/final-gsfc/

http://polardefenseproject.org/blog/

I do recognize that Mr. Serreze walks very close to the line; and it’s easy to see how his words can be interpreted to mean exactly what you said.

However, whatever sensationalized words he might use, it always puzzles me why it would be the skeptics that extend it even further – so that “death spiral” becomes “death”, and “is tipping” becomes “passed the tipping point”.

I am not splitting hairs here… yes, he is ‘raising an alarm’; he no doubt feels that it is his responsibility to do so… but there’s already too many alarmists and ‘infotainment’ media exaggerating what he’s said in the past (“ice-free North Pole” becomes “ice-free Arctic”, for instance), why add to it?

If somebody says “OMG we’re past the tipping point, all is lost!” then I will certainly join you in calling it B.S… but when someone is trying to show why we should be ‘alarmed’ without saying “we’re doomed”, why do you say they’re telling us “we’re doomed”?

Jeff: Who has suggested we have crossed the ‘tipping point’? And besides, there is still enough variability in weather both above and below the climate trendline, for temporary reversals to occur, even after the tipping point is reached. (In any event, I don’t think we have physically reached it yet)

I agree completely, there is certainly enough variation to mask a tipping point. I was just pointing out these widely printed news articles based on an interview with Mark Serreze. You are not the only one to ask who says we have already tipped. I wrote this on my blog
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2008/09/03/who-says-weve-already-passed-a-tipping-point/

http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS56CT/20080901180000_WIS56CT_0003950692.gif

How can AGW explain the present low level of Arctic ice when it is only a return to the conditions of the 30′s?

Thanks for the link. I haven’t read any books about Larsen, but I will – hopefully the stories aren’t as dire as the Shackleton story, for instance!

Although I still question whether the east-to-west route, using the Prince of Wales Strait instead of the McClure Strait can be considered a commercially navigable route (can today’s supertankers or, at least, bulk carriers make it through the Prince of William Strait?), I think it’s close enough that I’ll agree that 2007 is probably *not* the first time the NWP has been ‘open’.

Without reading the book I obviously can’t say I know any better than you about the ‘ice quality’ in the 1944 transit, but from the quote in the article you cited:

“In September the ship was nearly destroyed by hurricane force winds while at Tuktoyaktuk, yet the ice had been lighter than the previous summer. As a result, Larsen decided to try to complete the passage without having to winter in the Arctic. Traveling west along the coast of Alaska, the St. Roch found itself in a battle against the ice as it tried to reach Bering Strait before it was locked in for the winter. By September 27th however, the St. Roch had reached the strait and passed into the Pacific.”

It doesn’t sound like it was ice-free, or that they really had an easy time against the ice… so no, it does not sound like they had less ice in 1944 than last year, or this year. In fact, I strongly suspect that an equivalent ship would have it much easier last year or this year, WRT ice, than in 1944.

However, it is pretty clear that the transit of the NWP itself was much less than 86 days… in fact it has to be less than 45 days, from the Aug 12th resupply date at Pond Inlet to the Bering Strait on September 27th. I’m sure that was an amazing feat, probably as much so as Amundsen’s original transit through the southern route, for the conditions back then.

This is a better map of Larsen’s route. Larsen spent twenty years running the St. Roch around the Arctic. And there were probably a hundred other boats motoring around the Arctic. This evidence is for some reason totally ignored by the scientific community.
http://www.ucalgary.ca/arcticexpedition/larsenexpeditions

Larsen intended to take the Northern route through the NW Passage on the East West journey and headed that way. He was called back on business and then had to take the southern route. Without the late start likely he would have made it right through in 1941. (at least on the southern route since the Nascopie travelled the Eastern part of the passage ahead of Larsen.)

The voyage is well recorded in Larsen’s autobiography, “The Big Ship”. They ran into little ice on the East to West trip in the non-icebreaker St. Roch. Obviously, 2007 wasn’t the first time the passage was open to
non-icebreakers.

The St. Roch took 86 days to go from Halifax to Vancouver(7,295 miles), not 86 days to traverse the Passage. And through uncharted waters where they would sound the bottom with a lead weight and string 24 hours a day.

I have seen nothing to indicate the Perry Channel route opened to non-ice breakers in 2008 and now it is starting to freeze.

Good luck to that kayaker.
Temps in Alert are well below freezing and have been consistently colder than 2007. He will be kayaking on hard water.

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/climateData/hourlydata_e.html?timeframe=1&Prov=CA&StationID=42463&Year=2008&Month=9&Day=1

I wrote it backwards… Larsen’s 1940-42 trip was WEST to EAST, and 1944 was EAST to WEST… I thought I had it the wrong way, so I corrected it… but I was right the first time! (I shouldn’t be posting at 4 a.m.)

*TLAPD (‘Talk Like a Pirate Day’ is coming up soon… Sep 19th!)

[snip] sea ice area is LOW. extremely LOW, actually.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg

why is there not a single word about this in your posts?

Military buoys are showing air temperatures in almost the entire Arctic Basin well below the freezing point of seawater. Look for widespread ice to start forming soon. The area around Hans Island has frozen over very quickly during the last 5 days.

The yellow route is Larsen’s 1944 trip, from west to east, but he did not take the Bellot Strait – instead he took the Parry Channel, which is the first known transit of the deep-water route that could become commercially significant – that is the route that first opened up to non-icebreaker ships on Aug 21, 2007, and was reported to be open on Aug 27th of this year. (The St. Roch, while not exactly an icebreaker ship we think of today, was ‘ice-fortified’, modified, and fitted with a steel icebreaking ‘shoe’ over the bow of the ship)

Note: I’ve only seen one mention from NSIDC, on Aug 25th, that the Parry Channel was ‘nearly open’ for non-icebreakers and would be within a few days; a sketchy article in Scientific American confirmed this on the 27th. The maps seem to agree also (http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/arctic_AMSRE_visual.png) but since I haven’t read it anywhere else, and since the AMSRE map seems to show the ice gone one day and a few spots back the next, back and forth over the last two weeks, it’s probably not 100% open – yet.

I have no way of knowing if there is more or less ice than in 1944; however, given that they took 86 days even in an ice-fortified ship, I expect they encountered considerable ice at various points. Do you have information that they did not?

floating sea ice is blown around by the wind.

that one small sub-route is blocked this year, does NOT prove, that there was less ice in 1944.

that one ship came through, does not prove that the passage was open.

i don t think that this is very difficult to understand. when you want evidence, that compares to what we see today, you need much much more!