Former head of CSIRO’s division of space science says global cooling may be on the way

26 08 2008

From Australia’s Canberra Times:

27/08/2008 9:39:00 AM
Climate change has been the most important and complex issue on my plate in 15 years as a science and technology correspondent for The Canberra Times. So an appropriate topic for a farewell commentary for this newspaper is an emerging scientific debate with the potential to complicate the already difficult relationship between scientists and politicians on this issue.The effect of the sun’s activity on global temperatures has loomed large in arguments from climate change sceptics over the years. Several Russian scientists have argued that the current period of global warming is entirely due to a cycle of increased solar activity.

NSW Treasurer Michael Costa is understood to be among a small group of Australian politicians and other opinion-shapers to embrace this notion.

It is wise to be sceptical of many Russian scientists and all politicians, so I have given this ‘’solar forcing” explanation of global warming little credence until I attended a forum at the Academy of Science earlier this year and heard it from a scientist of undoubted integrity and expertise in this area. A former head of CSIRO’s division of space science, Dr Ken McCracken was awarded the Australia Prize the precursor of the Prime Minister’s Science Prize in 1995. Now in his 80s, officially retired and raising cattle in the ACT hinterland, he is still very active in his research field of solar physics.

McCracken is adamantly not a climate change sceptic, agreeing that rising fossil-fuel emissions will be a long-term cause of rising global temperatures.

But his analysis of the sun’s cyclical activity and global climate records has led him to the view that we are entering a period of up to two decades in which reduced solar activity may either flatten the upward trend of global temperatures or even cause a slight and temporary cooling. In a paper given in 2005 to a ‘’soiree” hosted by then president of the Academy of Science, Professor Jim Peacock, McCracken said the sun was the most active it had been over 1000 years of scientific observation. This made it inevitable that its activity would decrease over the next two decades in line with historically observed solar cycles. Read the rest of this entry »





Noctilucent clouds and the Earth’s interface with space

26 08 2008

This story about noctilucent clouds on NASA’s Science website made me think about a few things.
 
What I wonder is this: could noctilucent clouds be a proxy for cosmic ray interactions? While there are a lot of high energy galactic cosmic rays (GCR’s), there are  GCR”s that are coming in at low energies as well. The lower the energy, the higher in the atmosphere would be their primary target area. The lower the energy, the more the earth’s magnetic field is deflecting them, redirecting then towards the magnetic poles like the protons of the solar wind (which have much lower energies).

Noctilucent clouds are not yet well understood, and given the size of the NLC ice crystals, cosmic ray interaction could be a possible trigger for their formation. As many of you know, cosmic rays leave tiny nucleation tracks, in the atmosphere. much like they do when entering a cloud chamber in a nuclear physics lab. I built one once as high school student and watched cosmic rays and other background radiation zip through.


Tracking particles and cosmic rays in a cloud chamber

As occurs in a supercooled cloud chamber (dry ice is involved) it would seem to me that cosmic ray interaction with very rarefied supercooled water vapor could be occurring in the 60-90 km altitude range. While the mechasism of a cloud chamber relies on supersaturation to leave a visbile trail, an interaction that forms a small ice crystal in the nanometer range may not need supersaturation. And, given that NLC’s form mostly at high latitudes, as aurora borealis does, there may be an interactive component of some sorts with earth’s magnetic field.

I’m also thinking NLC’s may very well be the equivalent of “dark matter in the universe” for our atmospheric interface with space and incoming solar radiation. As mentioned in the article “There is a substantial population of invisible noctilucent clouds, a population of much smaller ice crystals (< 30 nm) that don’t scatter much sunlight.” They may be small, but may have an albedo effect of some sort that is undiscovered. This is all just conjecture on my part, but I thought it would make for interesting discussion. If nothing else, NLC’s illustrate that we still don’t know how all aspects of the atmosphere work, and the portion that is closest to space is the one that is the most difficult to measure. I welcome discussion. – Anthony

UPDATE: Here is an excellent powerpoint presentation on NLC’s:

http://gwest.gats-inc.com/nlc_epo/epo_nlc_lesson.ppt

h/t to Fernando Mafili from comments


Strange Clouds at the Edge of Space
August 25, 2008: When in space, keep an eye on the window. You never know what you might see.

Last month, astronauts on board the International Space Station (ISS) witnessed a beautiful display of noctilucent or “night-shining” clouds. The station was located about 340 km over western Mongolia on July 22nd when the crew snapped this picture:

see caption

Above: Noctilucent clouds photographed by the crew of the ISS: more.

Atmospheric scientist Gary Thomas of the University of Colorado has seen thousands of noctilucent cloud (NLC) photos, and he ranks this one among the best. “It’s lovely,” he says. “And it shows just how high these clouds really are–at the very edge of space.”

He estimates the electric-blue band was 83 km above Earth’s surface, higher than 99.999% of our planet’s atmosphere. The sky at that altitude is space-black. It is the realm of meteors, high-energy auroras and decaying satellites.

What are clouds doing up there? “That’s what we’re trying to find out,” says Thomas. Read the rest of this entry »