More anecdotal colder than normal weather keeps piling up. This time it’s in Southern Oregon and Northeastern California. Clearly we are having some far earlier than normal frosts and freezes in the USA, and the situation seems to be mirrored in colder than normal weather in parts of UK and Europe as well.
Note that this frost advisory has no connection to the weather pattern that caused frost and freeze in Minnesota and Wisconsin last night, it is a different frontal system.
NORTHEAST SISKIYOU AND NORTHWEST MODOC COUNTIES-KLAMATH BASIN-
NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…TULELAKE…DORRIS…ALTAMONT…
KLAMATH FALLS…BEATTY…BLY…CHEMULT…CRESCENT…GILCHRIST…
SPRAGUE RIVER…LAKEVIEW
238 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2008
…FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT
TUESDAY…
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE 30S IN MANY AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT. SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING.
A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.
Map from National Weather Service, Medford Oregon
h/t to Pamela Gray
Can’t wait to see the ANGST on the major networks!…oh, wait…YOU WON”T see a thing…because it doesn’t ***SHOCK*** fit their agenda! 🙂
Thanks for pointing out the ‘anecdotal’ evidence!
~Michael
http://www.cookevilleweatherguy.com
With any justice, this cold fron will have enough legs to make it Denver in time for the O’ceptance speech.
I knew something was strange when I went over Tollgate tonight on my way back to Pendleton. The temp dipped below 50 and the rain hitting my windshield had a decided ping to it (frozen core?). As soon as I got in, I fired up the laptop and there it was. This frost advisory will likely hit Wallowa County. We get weather there that just isn’t accurately predicted or reported by the NWS. Which is why I always check the Enterprise station.
http://www.enterpriseweather.com/
hmmm. Within the space of less than 5 minutes, the NWS changed the expected low Tuesday night in Lostine (just 7 miles from Enterprise) from 39 to 37. Wonder what it will be in 5 more minutes.
In NH the trees have already turned … October in August they are calling it. The trees must know what is coming.
Hells Bells! We got snow coming to the Cascades! Just as a reference point, Mt. Hood is 11,249 feet high. Snow is predicted at 7000 feet and above. This is at ski resort level.
Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
621 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2008
ORZ011-013-WAZ019-260400-
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…GOVERNMENT CAMP…DETROIT..
SANTIAM PASS…MCKENZIE BRIDGE…OAKRIDGE…WILLAMETTE PASS..
COLDWATER RIDGE VISITORS CENTER…MOUNT ST. HELENS
621 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2008
…COOL MOIST AIR OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES AND NORTH AND
CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES TODAY..
A RATHER VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE CASCADES
OVERNIGHT…AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOL SHOWERY AIR MASS ON FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD BUT THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BE MOIST AND COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN FOR A WHILE. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 7000 FEET IN THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT…AND TO AROUND 8000 FEET IN THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES.
IF YOU WILL BE BACKPACKING…CLIMBING…HIKING OR CAMPING IN THE
CASCADES BR PREPARED FOR THIS ABRUPT DOWNTURN TO COOL MOIST
CONDITIONS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
I think climatic Fall has started. Frost starting and leaves changing fast along the northern tier. All the while, tropical weather in the southeast, with more to come. Yeah, it’s Fall. My wife even said it smelled like Fall outside.
Had a late Spring, barely a Summer and now Fall. Man, I hate three season years. The cold never really left. It was justing hiding. Poking its head up once in a while this so-called Summer. Some cool days, and quite a few cool nights.
So kiss the tomatoes goodby (again) in central and eastern Oregon. We must have the world’s shortest growing season.
There seems to be so much anecdotal evidence in so many places that at some point intelligent people can only conclude that it’s not anecdotal anymore. Perhaps was are approaching that point.
Dittos to Brian and Carl. Fall came a month early. My tomatoes are still green. What is even more annoying, if not frightening, are the predictions that it’s just going to get worse for at least the next 20 years, due to PDO, spotless sun, lunar pull, orbital eccentricities, and what have you.
I have never been able to relate to the warming alarmists because warmer is completely better than colder in every respect. If Algore’s dire report had been Global Cooling, I might have joined his mindnumbed army. Sadly, I am an iconoclast and not a joiner. Still, I do know what I like, and I like warmer. Hope fades, though. I guess I better put up a few more cords of firewood. It looks like we’re in for an extra long, dreary winter to be discontented with.
Today in the valley of the Great Salt Lake, ahead of the front, the forecast was for 100 F, but some unexpected cumulus formations developed, dropped some virga, produced some cooler (less warm?) winds, and the temperature topped out at 97 F.
This hasn’t been a cool summer, but we also haven’t hit the extremely hot days as often as recent years. In fact, we are right on the average of 5 days of 100 F or hotter this year whereas last year set the record for such. Making an accounting for UHI, I suspect we have actually had a fairly average summer, without the especially hot days.
This winter in Australia is said to have been the coldest in 10 years. (Odd that, considering 1998 was the hottest year ever in the history of the whole entire universe {sorry, sarcasm took over there…}) This northern hemisphere winter could well be interesting.
well it looks like arctic ice has indeed started to re-freeze or at least ceased melting
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg and that looks like ice in Hudson Bay? Not clouds as some have maintained
[…] Watts Up With That? ____________________________________ Lock Up Your Bats…! […]
Klockkarman,
One can find VOLUMES of anecdotal evidence on both sides, and make the same claim you do.
Anecdotes are single cherry-picked scattered data points, and are by themselves completely meaningless. If you can show there have been more cold events than warm ones, and that over an extended time period, then you are beginning to talk science. Anything else is pure chatter over the fence in the backyard. Find a single scientist who does not agree with that.
The steady use of randomly selected anecdotes by this website does nothing to increase its integrity. Like it or not, that’s my view.
For those of you who believe there are only cold events happening lately, here’s a map to help you find warm ones (scroll down):
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp2.html
This is a weather site along with other cool topics. Your site compares today to a statistical average (which isn’t weather). We are at cross purposes. You keep letting us know that our purpose does not match your purpose for this site. Can we be done with that?
Pierre Gosselin
26 aug to 2 sep?
Fair go guys – we are in a mini drought here in Western Australia (Down-Under) 3 weeks without rain with warmer day time temps and the cockies (farmers – aussie slang) are getting a bit desperate. Send some of that rain Down-Under – please— especially to the SW part of our continent. We would be very grateful.
Anthony: is this meaningful?
http://www.globalweathercycles.com/
link posted on ICECAP so thought to be serious?
REPLY: I have my doubts for several reasons
1) No background posted on the guy – no apparent training in meteorology
2) Asks for money first, science later
3) Too much self promotion – aka bigfoot is actually a gorilla suit stuffed with roadkill
[…] Source: wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com Tags: california Related Posts […]
Klockarman,
Are we approaching a “tipping point”?
Anthony,
How unusual is it for these places to have frost warnings before Labor Day? Is it indicative of the persistance of the cold phase of the PDO?
REPLY: I’ve been looking for records to tell me about dates of frost warnings, so far none. But my experience tells me it is unusual. I don’t recall seeing a frost or freeze warning before labor day in the CONUS, ever.
According to NOAA, almost the entire country is below normal temperatures this year. Much of the country is 3-5 degrees below normal.
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/YearTDeptUS.png
Man Made Global Warming is causing this colder weather, Gore stated that this would happen. Besides, Americans drove 12 billion less miles in June and CO2 is dropping like a rock.
hehe
I have to agree with Anthony on Global Weather Cycles. Claims of peer-review, but no supporting evidence. Editing mistakes on the website. Profit comes first.
BTW, low 40s here in the Catskills last night. I was looking at historical records for my village and discovered that on July 9th in 1908, they had a frost here. This year the frosts were still occurring in late May.
It is going to be an interesting next decade or so.
One of the local weather persons (not climatologist) in Kansas City, Gary Lezak, has a forecasting system he calls the Lezak Reoccuring Cycle (LRC). His forcast for a cooler summer has been right on in a place where weather patterns can be summarized in the maxim “If you don’t like the weather wait a minute”. If nothing else, its refreshing to see someone put a methodology behind their guess work.
The link below isripe with anecdotal evidence of a cooler summer in KC.
http://community.nbcactionnews.com/blogs/weatherblog/default.aspx
The forecast for a cooler/wetter summer really did come through. We will be talking a lot more about the LRC as the new weather pattern develps this fall.
For tonight and Monday night we are looking at very cool conditions with morning lows in the 50s across the viewing area. Our record low for Tuesday morning is 53 degrees and we may make a run at it here in the city. So ‘free air conditioning’ is in store for everyone!
Now here is a look at the temperature data in regards to departure from average. 2007 is for the entire month, while the 2008 data is thru August 22.
August 2007 +6.3, 2008 -1.8. In 2007 June(-0.4) & July(-1.1) had below average temperatures, with August being well above average. So far this summer temperatures have been below average. Outside of the August departure from average number, June finished +0.2 and July was cooler at -1.4.
Nighttime lows will remain in the 60s, or even the 50s in spots. So don’t expect the average to cooler than average temperatures to leave the area anytime soon.
This links contains background on the LRC.
http://community.nbcactionnews.com/search/SearchResults.aspx?q=LRC&s=1390
Pamela: I agree with you.
Pierre: I agree with you
“Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get” – Robert Heinlein.
Perhaps mathematically is this:
Climate = ∫∫∫ g(wheather)dtdsdh
g(wheater)= f(anecdotal_cool) + f(anecdotal_warm)
anecdotal_warm = (all the media)
anecdotal_cool = (only on this site)
ops: g(weather)
Isn’t this the guy who has a secret formula for climate prediction for the Farmer’s Almanac? A secret formula is not science. Now where have I heard that?
Two communities went below freezing. Burns, Oregon went down to -3.9C and Lakeview reached -1.0C. Both are agricultural areas in valleys between mountain chains so not good news for these two communities.
Pierre: “One can find VOLUMES of anecdotal evidence on both sides, and make the same claim you do.
Anecdotes are single cherry-picked scattered data points, and are by themselves completely meaningless. If you can show there have been more cold events than warm ones, and that over an extended time period, then you are beginning to talk science. Anything else is pure chatter over the fence in the backyard. Find a single scientist who does not agree with that.
The steady use of randomly selected anecdotes by this website does nothing to increase its integrity. Like it or not, that’s my view.”
And I think you’re missing the point of the anecdotal posts here. On the other side of the fence every single weather event that seems to be associated with warming is touted as “proof” of global warming. I think Anthony’s point here in posting these is that there are as many anecdotes in the other direction as to make such things meaningless. Yet the MSM and even some scientists (and Al Gore) who tout such anecdotes refuse to admit the silliness of using anecdotal “evidence” for long term trends.
Vincent Guerrini Jr. (00:55:19) :
“well it looks like arctic ice has indeed started to re-freeze or at least ceased melting”.
Seems to contradict sea ice extent, not to far off last years melt now. http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
Appears that this August will come in roughly .15 C cooler than last August and .2 C cooler than July, at least that appears to be what is happening based on the ASU Satellite temp readings. I know those have to be adjusted, but -.15 is pretty large for a year to year drop.
I know DC had a pretty warm June, July was cooler than June, and August is cooler than July. Most decidedly NOT the normal pattern. 10 day forecast shows highs in the 70s for the rest of the month and into Sept. Leaves started turning and dropping in mid-August, also early for around here (Ya, Pierre, I know it’s anecdotal and has no particular signifigance re AGW good or bad, just keeping up with the thread).
Pierre Gosselin (01:19:48) :
“For those of you who believe there are only cold events happening lately, here’s a map to help you find warm ones (scroll down):
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp2.html”
Kind of confirms the idea that if it’s colder in one place it’s warmer in another!
“The steady use of randomly selected anecdotes by this website does nothing to increase its integrity. Like it or not, that’s my view.”
Anecdotes are certainly fast food for the pseudo-intellectuals and senstationalists, you have a very valid point.
I rather enjoy the stories of local weather. Weather is interesting to watch, and since we have the AWG crowd highlighting the warm spells for us, it is nice to have Anthony keep us up on the cold snaps.
The difference is we know the distinction between weather and climate here, unlike a former vice prisident who once proclaimed on a hot day in NYC “if this doesn’t prove global warming, I don’t know what does”. A true statement to say the least.
Interesting that this is a summertime Pacific cold air mass over southern Oregon.
Cold air coming off the North Pacific?
Why, that would imply cooler ocean temperatures, wouldn’t it?
Apparently Shetland has had a nice summer.
Pierre Gosselin
I agree about your comment about anecdotal versus science; however, though scientific methods may be employed the evidence gathered many times is anecdotal of some event/change occurring and it can be interpreted depending on ulterior motives.
Another piece of ‘anecdotal evidence’. Over a week on Vancouver Island with rain and peak temperatures well under 20 degrees Celsius in late August. Might mean something, might well mean nothing.
Anthony,
Re Global Weather Cycles. I share your concern, but here is more information on the Author:
“The release of the book “Global Warming- Global Cooling, Natural Cause Found” culminates 19 years of research clearly linking gravitational cycles as the cause for fluctuations within the earth’s climate. The book is available as an electronic e-Book on the website http://www.globalweathercycles.com . The author David Dilley is a meteorologist and climate researcher with Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), former meteorologist with the National Weather Service, and co-host of the radio program “the Politically Incorrect Weather Guys” airing weekly on RadioEarNetwork.com, an internet streaming radio program.
He cannot send me the book it is only available on Windows, no Mac version.
“Anecdotes are certainly fast food for the pseudo-intellectuals ” Mary Hinge
Humility is the secret to greatness. (However sheer raw talent can overcome a lack of that. But then that begs the question “Where did that talent come from?”)
Meh! Some of us just like to talk about the weather.
Hey, look at that, in the link that Patrick Henry posted most of Minnesota is <0 anomaly but there is a spot right near where Minneapolis/St. Paul is with a small positive anomaly. UHI anyone?
Mary, Pierre and others,
“Watts Up With That?
Commentary on puzzling things in life, nature, science, technology, and recent news by Anthony Watts”
This is not your site. It belongs to Anthony. I reckon he can post and comment on whatever interests him. Many of his posts hold no interest for me, so I withhold my comments. If it holds no interest for you, don’t comment on it. Try imagining that you are in his house with his family. It works for me.
Mary Hinge,
Yeah, that’s a tad strange. I can’t help but wonder about the apparent discrepancy between the two sources.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
Just an observation here… When trying to predict the path and development of a hurricane so human settlements (let’s say New Orleans) have time to get out of the way of danger, climatologists use over a dozen models and average the output since they know the models diverge after about 3 days. Even still, airplanes must be sent into these storms to make real time measurements to feed those same models to recalculate the average predicted outcome. On top of that, countless sums of money and research man-hours are being poured into making these models better.
Now, while trying to predict catastrophic danger to the human race, climatologists have happened upon a single or limited number of infallible models accurate to within centuries without the need for real time measures to correct the predicted outcome.
Does anyone else see the irony here? Are we wasting our money and resources on global warming research?…or perhaps on hurricane tracking? Will the real climatologist please stand up?
It seems okay to accept the concept that global temperature increase is related to CO2 but in reality it is only anecdotal but it seems to be accepted as scientific fact by the pseudo intellectual scientists.
dearieme (07:57:15) :
“Apparently Shetland has had a nice summer.”
Ha ha ha. Good one.
“Nice summer” in Shetland = “Brutal Winter” in California
Sorry about this off-topic post but, but I just came across this info and thought it was worth posting. This is a story about a woman who didn’t win the Nobel prize because Al Gore won it instead.
http://www.youtube.com:80/watch?v=OVw1PANUcdg&feature=related
Who do you think was more deserving?
What will this do to this year’s hops harvest?!?!?! We homebrewers have had a dreadful summer with the hops shortage from last year. Fewer, more expensive IPA’s again this year?
Scott
Cold enough for dry ice to form!
Current temperature at Vostok Station, Antarctica is -115°F!!
Forecasted low for Thursday was -124°F last I checked. This would be within 5 degrees of the lowest temperature ever recorded!!
For more anecdotal information, the Chicago area has had it’s lowest number of 90° and above days for the first eight years in a decde, since the 30’s. Hope I stated that correctly. I’m not an intellectual, pseudo or otherwise.
But I do like to read what you all write here and elsewhere about the coming AGW catastrophe which will wipe out every and all life forms from the face of the earth. Or not. For me, I’ll start to worry when the climate stops changing. Or Obama gets elected. Whichever comes first.
“Cold enough for dry ice to form!” Kate
Sounds like a positive feedback in the negative direction.
Anecdotal evidence is what the common person sees. If you have a BS behind your name (or a lot of BS), it becomes a scientific observation to support or refrute a theory.
Long time lurker but first time posting. I really enjoy your blog and please keep up the good work. My brother lives in the Chicago area and posted an anecdotal weather observation that I would like to share. He stated that you can almost see the entire south bend of Lake Michigan due to the sky being completely clear. He noted this usually occurs in November and note late August.
I emailed a local met about how often we get frost/freeze warnings in our area before Labor Day. And the years in which they happened in the last 10 or 20 years. May take a little time for a response, but I’ll post it when I hear back.
I know we have had them around this time of year in the past, but not sure when. At least frost advisories. Freeze warnings seem a little more unprecedented. The Iron Range of MN is known for its early frosts in the valleys. In fact, they have the state record for the coldest temp recorded(-60F) in Feb 1996. Cold air pools in this area when a cold high is over us, and calm conditions.
Climatic fall began on the US West Coast on July 19th.
And you ain’t seen nothing yet.
Wait until next decade.
We’ll look bake upon 2008 as being part of the good old days. The end of a Golden Age.
bake -> back.
dearieme (07:57:15) :
“Apparently Shetland has had a nice summer.”
This is for the same reason that Ireland, England and Wales have had a wet summer, the jet stream is much further south than usual and now northern scotland and the islands are above the cloudy parts of the jet stream hence the sunnier weather. The jet stream is starting to edge northwards again so it should brighten up from the south upwards very soon.
Well Pierre your temp map shows we in Wisconsin are experiencing a positive anomaly. Much of the state had frosts the last two nights and it is decidedly chilly anywhere in the Northern half of the state. It appears your map needs some contact with reality
More sensational fearmongering:
Polar Bears Seen Swimming For Their Lives
Receding Arctic Sea Ice Threatens Survival of Species
Ten polar bears have been spotted swimming in open water during an aerial survey as the peak of summer sea ice melting nears.
Drowning polar bears has only been seen as a threat to the species in recent years as the extent of sea ice recedes to historic low levels. Last year, there was more open water than ever before recorded; this year’s melt, while dramatic, won’t reach the same extent as 2007.
Anthony i’m not sure what your web site is but I just noticed that noaa shows A frost advisory for northern New York .Thats three frost or freeze warnins or advisories in three days and it’s still august .I wonder what the record is for early frost in the U.S.? I know I know it’s natural variences.Only when it’s warm should we be concerned .By the way this is the mildest summer here in the foothills of north carolina I can remember in years.We had a week of low to mid 90’s in late june and again in late july but it’s been mostly in the low to mid 80 with some 70’s .
I did find some info on frosts & snows before Labor day in reports filed with the NCDC.
There may be more incidents that were not reported. I’ll see what the local met says for more recent stuff in my area when I hear back.
Patchy frost
Aug 19, 2004
E ND & NW MN
Snow
Aug 29-31, 2003
WY Grand Teton
2ft at summit
Frost warning
Aug 1, 2001
N CA & S OR
Frost warning
Aug 19, 2000
N CA & S OR
Frost warning
Aug 14, 1999
N CA & SC OR
Frost warning
Aug 30, 1999
N CA & SC OR
Snow
Aug 30, 1999
C OR & Foothills of Blue Mt.
1.5″ 6300ft+ Pauline Lake
Trace 6400ft+ Mt Bachelor & Black Butte
Snow
Aug 18, 1998
AK Denali Park
8″
Snow
Aug 26, 1993
MT
Butte 5″
Georgetown Lake 12″
Snow
Aug 29-30, 1993
MT
Little Belts and Front Range(6000ft+)
6-12″
Found more for MN in history records.
August 2
1831 Cold outbreak across state with light frost reported at Ft. Snelling.
August 8
1882 August snowstorm on Lake Michigan. 6 inches of slush on ship decks. Snow showers on shore.
August 13
1964 A taste of fall over area with 26 in Bigfork and 30 in Campbell.
August 16
1981 Chilly across the state with Tower reporting a low of 33 degrees.
August 24
1934 Early arctic blast over state. Rochester and Fairmont have lows of 34 degrees.
August 26
1915 Severe cold and killing frosts across Minnesota with 23 degrees at Roseau.
August 27
1992 A chilly night in Embarrass. The temperature dipped to 28 degrees.
August 29
1863 A devastating killing frost affected most of Minnesota, killing vines and damaging corn.
August 31
1949 Earliest snowfall known for Minnesota. A trace of snow fell at the new Duluth Airport.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
311 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008
NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-270715-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
311 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK…CENTRAL
VERMONT…NORTHEAST VERMONT…NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS IN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM
OF VERMONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DEEPER
SHELTERED VALLEY REGIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BETWEEN 33 AND 38
DEGREES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING…WITH SOME SCATTERED FROST
POSSIBLE.
Looks like we will see frost in several northern tier states.
Keith
Anthony,
You’re probably on this like a fly on sugar, but there is a new article on ICECAP about a University of Washington study of Cascade Snowpack by Mass basicly crediting natural causes to snowpack changes. (‘scuse me while I wash my mouth out – I come from the other university WSU). I thought you’d like to know, and it’s sort of on topic…kinda…
Mike
I wonder how polar bears adapted over the millenia to be able to swim long distances if they’ve never had to do so before because the arctic has been covered by ice since the beginning of time.
How many land animals do you know of that can swim as far as polar bears do? Obviously they know how to deal with water because they have done so before.
Does anyone know where I can find information on current Antarctic temperatures and forecasts?
Michael:
As a loyal Husky, let me hand you some purple and gold mouthwash.
But I can agree with my Cougar friends that this last winter (huge snowpack) and this early Autumn (vine maple changing color already in the Cascade Mountains) has made me wonder where summer went…
I already fought several wars.
Whenever against tyranny.
The main tactic of the enemy:
It is the division of resistance.
The enemy has a name:
James (T. Kirk).
Dr. Hansen:
I know you personally write on the blog.
We are few.
We have no money.
We do not have satellites.
Your lies.
Your model. (IPCC 4 .. 5 .. 6 .. n)
Your generals.
Your media.
Your GISS.
Your spies.
Scientifically your arguments ended.
Mr Hansen:
unconditionally:
On board the USS Missouri.
Not the division of skeptical.
I love Pamela.
I love Pierre.
Sorry for the mistakes.
edcon (09:58:04) :
“It seems okay to accept the concept that global temperature increase is related to CO2 but in reality it is only anecdotal….”
ONLY anecdotal! Do you actually know what an anecdote is? Wouldyou like fries with that!
John-X: Yes, it would imply cooler North Pacific SSTs. North Paciic SSTs been declining since 2004.
http://i36.tinypic.com/wi61zk.jpg
SSTs for most of the other oceans are dropping too. The Southern Ocean SSTs have been dropping since 1985. The South Atlantic SSTs have been flat for that period.
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/08/30-years-of-ocean-ssts-january-1978-to.html
It’s all a matter of time.
Mr Dubrasich said: (22:54:38) :
“Dittos to Brian and Carl. Fall came a month early. My tomatoes are still green. ”
Not a problem. Make green tomato chutney, great with ham or cold chicken. If you prefer your tomatoes red, put them in a brown paper bag for a few days and they will ripen. To speed the process add a banana. It’s not guaranteed, but works a good 9 times out of 10.
Getting chilly in London too. I just cut down on the blood pressure pills and keep myself nice and warm.
FatBigot, you should put the green police and the NHS together. Think of the savings!
John A., Anthony,
Go here:
http://hurricane.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/climatenormals/climatenormals.pl
and you’ll see a link to climatological normals (1971-2000) for freeze and frost dates.
How biased is the media in reporting hot anecdotes, but not cold anecdotes?
A quick check on google news:
Search for “cold” “weather” 12 283 hits
Search for “hot” “weather” 20 857 hits
So possibly the media is somewhat biased towards reporting on the hot weather. But its not exactly a conspiracy of silence. Perhaps they report more on hot weather because of legitamte concerns about AGW, and so thats what people want to hear about.
Either that or there is more hot weather going around than cold at the moment.
Or there is more cold weather than hot going around and the media is strongly biased. Its probably impossible to make a good definition of how much reporting a ‘fair’ media should give to hot and cold weather…
Wife puts green tomatoes in a box lined with newspaper, and covers them with the same. Puts them in the basement(somewhere cool and dry). They’ll ripen in a few days. She then cans them. She makes good salsa with them, too.
She cans all kinds of fruit, veggies, and meat throughout the year. Last longer and better for you.
Anthony & (most) Commenters:
Thanks for all the cold weather anecdotes. Down here in California’s Kern County deserts, we’re still getting baked. Thus far this summer we’ve gotten by with just 3 days with high temperature > 110 F (yearly average is 5), but it looks like we could hit 110 F or higher Thursday and Friday, with daytime temperatures forecast to be 10 – 15 F above normal. In this part of California, it’s definitely still summer, so all the posts about frost and freezing are very welcome. That’s as close to “cold” as most folks here are going to get for awhile.
Interesting, nsdic shows a downturn in ice _extent_ at
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/daily.html and CryoSphere
shows ice _area_ leveling off.
And the Washington Post has picked up the nsidc side of the story, with polar bears for good measure.
Thank goodness then that there’s more ice cover this year than last, a point the article doesn’t make clear.
Mary Hinge (15:51:42) :
There is anecdotal evidence that vaccinations may cause autism; however, it cannot be proven scientifically and the same holds for the ‘belief’ that CO2 is responsible for global warming based on measurements that cannot be proven scientifically to show a casual relationship between the two outside of a laboratory! Don’t spill the catsup when you review anecdotal!
Here’s a PDF that shows average first frost dates for the country.
http://www.botanicalinterests.com/pdf_downloads/First%20Fall%20Frost%20Map.pdf
Homegrown tomatoes homegrown tomatoes
What’d life be without homegrown tomatoes
Only two things that money can’t buy
That’s true love and homegrown tomatoes
Guy Clark, Homegrown Tomatoes Lyrics
http://www.cowboylyrics.com/lyrics/clark-guy/homegrown-tomatoes-12.html
edcon (20:33:49) :
Just proves you have no idea of the difference between scientific investigation and anecdotal evidence. Using anecdotal evidence as ‘scientific evidence’ can also be harmufuland misleading, the vaccination/autism is actually a very good example. There are now measle outbreaks because parents where worried about vaccinating their children because they were worried about this leading to autism. Now, after scientific investigation, their does not appear to be a link at all. The recent anecdotes in this blog, whilst representing what those in the cold anomoly areas feel are worthless to the study of climate change. This is evident as a cold front crosses (nothing abnormal there) and the noise from the wannabe intellectuals grow, suddenly silent when the temperatures return to normality (where have the weather stories from Denver gone to!) The frost warnings are being used in the context of the beginnings of a new ice age approaching by many posters. The mild freeze has more to do with clear dry air ( a good hint of this is “CLEARING SKIES BEHIND A COLD FRONT….” ). You look at the max day temperatures and they are certainly not Arctic by any means http://www.intellicast.com/National/Temperature/HighToday.aspx
Keep tucking into that fast food honey, or better still try and seek some nutritional mind food.
Brian D,
I would like to get a high resolution version of that map if possible. I looked on the NOAA site but only came up with an old black and white map. Do you have the map’s address, or could you email it to me please: david.archibald@westnet.com.au
I have been saying that a repeat of the Dalton Minimum would take 2 weeks of the growing season each end, and that climate zones would move 300 km towards the equator. This map shows the effect of that – it is beautiful. By the way, the length of Solar Cycle 23 relative to Solar Cycle 22 means that a climatic repeat of the Dalton Minimum is now inevitable.
We baby boomers have had the best of everything, including a run of short solar cycles that have kept the world warmer than it would have otherwise been. The correlation is 0.7 degrees C for every year of solar cycle length. Solar cycles in the 20th century averaged one year longer than those of the 19th century. The 20th century got to be 0.7 degrees warmer than the 19th century.
Jared:
For Antarctic temps you can start here:
http://www.aad.gov.au/weather/aws/dome-a/index.html
Currently -75C at Dome A.
Jared:
Australian Antarctic bases info here:
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDT65024.shtml
Jeff Alberts,
Two wrongs don’t make a right.
It’s wrong for the AGW people to do it, and so it is for us coolers.
Mike Bryant,
I see your point, but a church is also built by the sinners, and not the preacher.
I’m a big AGW skeptic. I’m so because of the bad, highly anecdotal “science” used to promote it. Now if anyone wishes to make me an Anthony Watts skeptic, then by all means encourage him to resort to the same brand of “science” as the AGW alarmists. In MHO, I think it’s a big mistake to mix weather reports in with climate science on one website, as clearly so many seem unable to distinguish between the two. “Yup! We got a frost last night – must be global cooling!”
Of course it’s Anthony’s site, and he’ll do as he darn well pleases. But hopefully he’ll simply consider my comments as “suggestions for improvement”.
Wondering Aloud
The map is a one-week OUTLOOK – and not of actual conditions.
So, don’t be surprised if you enjoy some warm days ahead.
Here’s a link to Antarctica:
http://www.coolantarctica.com/Antarctica%20fact%20file/antarctica%20environment/weather.htm
When I wrote this it was -116°F at Vostok!
Now how’s that for global cooling!
Anecdotes would be mere background noise if the public had faith in the data put out. In fact the data would have a leveling effect, canceling out the various heat waves and cold snaps going on in various places at any given time.
However when the public loses faith in the data put out; when the public starts to feel like it is being played for a sucker and a chump, it is only natural for people to begin to compare notes.
Discrepancies between the red dots on the GISS map and back-yard observations start to be noticed. California has a big red dot for July, but a fellow in San Diego notes his temperatures were two degrees below normal.
If these discrepancies were isolated, they could be dismissed as being merely local phenomenon, however when they become too numerous the public’s distrust of government data becomes a ground swell. Eventually government data is scorned as propaganda, and the people seek the truth in their own way.
I’m afraid this is exactly what we are seeing occur. When Abraham Lincoln stated “You can’t fool all the people all the time,” he was recognizing that the public is not something to be trifled with, especially in a democracy.
In a better world data could be trusted. It would serve its purpose, and not the purpose of a particular party.
As it is, the public seems to increasingly rely on anecdotes. Each bit of data is measured by the listener, who tries to figure out whether the reporter is an Alarmist or a Skeptic, and makes their own private “adjustment” accordingly, and then they scrawl a map in their minds, with their own red dots and blue dots. It’s a lot of mental work, and likely leads to a wide variety of mental maps.
How much easier it would be if the public could trust the people entrusted to do this work; the people in fact paid by the public with tax-dollars to do the job professionally and without bias. Unfortunately, the public currently can’t trust.
Therefore anecdotes have become important, for where there is propaganda there will also be an underground.
“Therefore anecdotes have become important, for where there is propaganda there will also be an underground.”
Anecdotes have their place in folk tales and bar talk. Sensationalists love them and also, so it seems, those more interested in conspiracy theories than intelligent discussion. There is plenty of anecdotal evidence for alien abduction, bigfoot and even the tooth fairy, hey, Elvis was seen in a chipshop last month!
Pierre,
Only a few sites report on anecdotal cooling. I saw almost no coverage of the record snows in China last winter. Apparently China lost trees in an area about the size of Florida. Isn’t an environmental disaster like that worthy of some coverage? As I see it, blogs like this one are a balance to the AGW propaganda. I really enjoy your posts.
The MRF has a major cold front pushing to the Gulf Coast for Sep 3rd/4th timeframe with temps in the 30s for the upper plains and midwest.
David Archibald,
You might want to look at McFarland Signature events as well. These greatly determine the viability of certain types of crops grown in the US East of the Rocky Mountains. McFarland events drive very cold air from Siberia over the poles and down into North America for a prolonged period, sometimes as far as Costa Rica and into the Tropical Pacific ( via the Darien Gap ) and as far East as the Bahamas.
This cold air is so cold that it kills succulent plants such as citrus and others that cannot tolerate sub-freezing temps. These events should be very apparent in the fossil pollen record. They also do a number on winter wheat, alfalfa, and other crops that cannot stand prolonged cold temps – they effectively push the crop zones 500+ miles further south. They are also very hard on livestock.
McFarland events used to be common < 1900, mostly ceased from 1900-1950, then appear to have started up in the early 1980s again. The McFarland event of 1899 was so cold that Galveston Bay froze over.
They should be ( and are ) relatively apparent in pollen studies from plant community changes.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ssd/techmemo/tm88.htm
http://www.raingardens.com/psst/articles/artic03.htm
http://www.raingardens.com/psst/articles/artic02.htm
The argument about anecdotal evidence seems specious to me. If there’s one thing we all can talk about, it’s the weather. That weather is, for the most part, what humankind has considered important throughout history, the situation right around us. Someone else may be baking, but we are cold, so that’s what’s important to us.
The ability to see data gathered from far flung areas in real time is pretty recent. So gabbing about it is interesting and fun. Here in Colorado, we have “microclimes” (I think I spelled that right…) that is my “weather” and the “weather” just a mile or so away might be quite different. Think of a thunderstorm passing overhead. That can reduce the temperature 10-20 degrees in a very short time. So my reality in a storm will be quite different from a neighbor who sees the storm pass by with no more than cool wind gusts for a time.
To speak of someone as “psudointellectual” is a real put down. Most folks understand the difference between local, regional and world data, and also long term and short term. Stated another way, I think I’ve learned more from farmers, mechanics and cleaning people than folks with letters after their name.
nuff said.
Well, if you are going to give one side of the coin (in this case the high/low setup on the Pacific coast), you better cite the “anecdotal” evidence of warming.
URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
328 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2008
…NEAR RECORD HEAT EXPECTED THURSDAY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH BAY..
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO THE GREATER SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGION TODAY
INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY WITH 80S NEAR THE COAST AND READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S
INLAND. BY THURSDAY RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HEAT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. IN PARTICULAR THE POPULATED AREAS OF
THE EAST AND SOUTH BAY WILL EXPERIENCE SOME OF THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
Talk about warming… look at these temps.
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Continent.jpg
I wonder if anyone has a similar list of lows…
Cold weather, warm weather, all makes great conversation!
Northern California is experiencing typical late September or early October weather. In all respects.
This site has continental record high and low temperatures:
http://www.weatherexplained.com/Vol-1/Record-Setting-Weather.html
David
The file came from here.
http://cdo.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/climaps/climaps.pl?directive=order_details&subrnum=®ion=Lower%2048%20States&filename=temp06b
You can try the their instructions for the ArcExplorer and see if those files satisfy your need, but other than that, that is it.
I’ve looked around for different sources, but no luck. Sorry.
Brian
Got it – thanks very much.
“The steady use of randomly selected anecdotes by this website does nothing to increase its integrity. Like it or not, that’s my view.”
“Of course it’s Anthony’s site, and he’ll do as he darn well pleases. But hopefully he’ll simply consider my comments as “suggestions for improvement”.
Come on Pierre! Look around at your fellow commenters. Take a sample, estimate the population.
If Anthony’s intent were plebian don’t you think all these publicans would be rather scarce.
Now what does that tell you, Pierre? I’d say you’re fears imply you think that you just might be a standard deviation or two above the bulge.
[snip, personal attack~charles the moderator]
Jeez, please edit your “personal attack” comment. I take exception to your selective preciosity. ‘Ethnic slur’ would be preferable.
Reply: Please do not accuse me of being selective. It’s my job to maintain standards and I try very hard to to it in an even-handed manner~charles the moderator aka jeez
Jeez,
We all agree you have an important, and unpaid job, in service to all of us. You aren’t expected to know I’ve supported Pierre more often than not, or have time to sort out everything you read.
The issue related to your use of boilerplate. You did not have to post anything, a plain [snip] would have told me what I needed to know.
Why do good cops always detest the bad cop?
Reply: Point taken and I apologize. My reasoning is thus, by sometimes explaining certain editorial decisions I give feedback to posters so that they understand the why. Sometimes it’s so obvious that I don’t explain, sometimes when they are borderline I do. It’s all part of trying to get posters to comply to standards without appearing capricious.~charles the moderator.
Gary Gulrud (07:55:31) :
“Jeez, please edit your “personal attack” comment. I take exception to your selective preciosity. ‘Ethnic slur’ would be preferable.”
At the top of the page is a mission statement: Commentary on puzzling things in life, nature, science, technology, and recent news.
That includes anecdotal evidence, it doesn’t include “personal attack” or ‘ethnic slur’, though perhaps it’s an anthropological question why someone would prefer being censored for one over the other.
Ric, you assume too much.