Note: UK atmospheric scientist John Kettley, is formerly of the Met Office and the Fluid Dynamics Department at the Bracknell headquarters.
JOHN KETTLEY: Awful August has delayed this year’s harvest but global warming is not to blame
Last updated at 3:21 AM on 24th August 2008
Atrocious: The terrible August weather has delayed the harvest but global warming is not to blame
Atrocious weather has seriously delayed the harvest this year – by now oil seed rape, barley and oats should already have been gathered.
The delay could mean either a loss in yield or drop in quality, with a subsequent fall in income for farmers for the second year running.
But this is not a symptom of so-called ‘global warming’.
These conditions are not unique and are more like the poor August weather Britain saw during the Twenties and Sixties.
It is more likely a stark reminder that the warming trend we recorded in the last part of the 20th Century has now stalled. Globally, 1998 remains the warmest of the last 150 years.
Of course, we have seen very hot months in the UK recently, but we should be under no illusion about global warming.
We are not suddenly about to be catapulted towards a Mediterranean climate. We are surrounded by water, with the vast Atlantic Ocean to our west, while the jet stream and gulf stream will forever influence our daily weather and long-term climate.
So, this year’s Sixties-style August has seen bad weather in many places.
Northern Ireland suffered particularly from serious flooding last weekend, but it has been the cumulative affect of cool, wet and dull conditions which has really hampered farmers’ progress.
For every loser there are always winners.
Lerwick in Shetland has largely stayed north of the rain-bearing jet stream and in the past week alone saw almost 40 hours of sunshine.
Further south, mainland Scotland was not so blessed, as storms brought 2in (50mm) of heavy rain to many places, including Edinburgh, on Wednesday and Thursday.
There will be more rain for the west of Scotland in the next few days, but at long last much of the country can look forward to a change in fortune.
Late August should see warm picnic weather – which I think will last through September, in line with recent years.
As allways Anthony, thankyou so much for your efforts, its very appreciated!
August has been awfull in Denmark too (!) Cold and rainy, i think we will beat all time rain records for August.
I just want you to see the ice growing north of Baffin Island, check the picture in this entry:
http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/isudtyndingen-af-polarisen-her-i-2008–d13-e337-s40.php#post_7288
Vast areas has frozen over in no time. Is this normal for August??
OMG!
“But this is not a symptom of so-called ‘global warming’.”
Heresy!
Everyone just knows that everything on, over, and under the earth is caused by global warming.
Okay – sarc off – wouldn’t it be nice if we were to more often start seeing such a more skeptical outlook of the politically correct view of climate change with such phrases as “so-called ‘global warming’?”
Love the dry humor! It is unfathomable that many accredited scientists and quote on quote brilliant individuals deny the existence of Global Warming and dismiss it as a naturally occurring phenomena that we as humans have nothing to do with. If Global Warming doesn’t exist, than neither does ice cream. When are we going to address issues, rather than saying, “I’ll be dead by the time that happens,” or “It’s not my problem,” or “There is nothing I can do about it”?
His biography is amusing.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Kettley
One of my sons is camping at the Reading rock festival. I believe it’s still raining there!!
As for next winter, I dread to think what it will be like with only 13 days of gas storage in the UK and the Norwegian pipeline leak scare.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7575197.stm
U4H (00:28:53) : If Global Warming doesn’t exist, than neither does ice cream.
Observational and experimentation proves the existance of ice cream thou 😉
U4H:
Isn’t temperature variability within limits a ‘given’? As they say. Where is the actual data [independently reviewed] that says temperatures have exceeded the ‘envelope’?
Instead of using garbage in/out computer predictions, none of which actually work, try looking at historical records from Royal Navy ships logs over the last 500 years and Medieval Monastic weather reports and get the Greenie Garbage out of your brainwashed skull.
Rum and raisin and double chocolate chip ice cream for me!
PS “Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities have increased the proportion of the atmosphere occupied by carbon dioxide by one-ten-thousandth part since 1750 (Keeling & Whorf, 2004, updated).”
Which means you can’t do anything, that will affect in the slightest, the climate of this Planet. Greenie Hysteria notwithstanding.
My link above was erased by mistake, heres a new one:
http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/isudtyndingen-af-polarisen-her-i-2008–d13-e337-s40.php#post_7289
It shows the vast areas freezing over north of Baffin Island in no time right now.
U4H, it isn’t unfathomable that many accredited scientists and quote on quote brilliant individuals deny the existence of man made Global Warming. It’s less tangible than ice cream. A lot less. It’s more like denying the existence of God, no proof for either, but he’s got better provenance.
Instead of crying “when are we going to address issues” why not elaborate on what YOU are doing.
Many on this site are already going out of their way to save energy and resources, purely because it makes economic sense. However, pouring money into a carbon offset black hole, sticking up useless windmills or sacrificing our economy and prosperity for unproved theories is madness.
If the photo of the two girls had been in black and white it could be me 35 years ago. It really is cold and wet here. Brrrrrr.
Is the tide turning ?
There is a lot of kicking and screaming to come no doubt.
Good man that John Kettley.From here in Yorkshire.No nonsense.
It’s hibernation hysteria.
===============
One line in the report caught my eye:”Of course, we have seen very hot months in the UK recently…..”
Well, I live on the south coast of England and that’s news to me. My perception is that the weather – particularly in summer – has been getting consistently cooler. As far as I can recall the last ‘hot month’ was a few years ago.
Last year, after a warm April, the summer, from May to July inclusive, was remarkably cool. I often wore a sweater and even resorted to putting on the central heating a few times. This summer wasn’t quite so bad, but it’s been very cool nevertheless, apart from the last week of July.
I think the last heatwave was about four years ago. We’ve also had snow for the last four winters, something almost unknown over the previous decade or so.
Of course, two cold summers does not add up to global cooling. But when you look at the global temperature graphs for the last ten years and then at the blank face of the sun, it makes you wonder….
Chris
Slightly off topic, but no discussion involving John Kettley is complete without it being pointed out that even meteorologists can become cult superstars.
JK was immortalised by the ‘Tribe of Toffs’ in their catchy, offbeat 1988 song ‘John Kettley is a weatherman’. Half a dozen other weather-persons were also name checked alongside numerous other C-list personalities, though factual information suffered somewhat for the sake of the rhyme of the lyrics.
To raise a wry bemused smile on a cold grey August day (here in the UK at least), click at top rightish here:
http://www.last.fm/music/A+Tribe+of+Toffs/_/John+Kettley+(Is+a+Weatherman)
Lyrics here:
http://www.debbieandstephen.com/toffs/lyrics.htm#John%20Kettley%20(Is%20A%20Weatherman)
Socio-cultural-historic contextual framework here (will probably still be gibberish to anybody who didn’t live through 1980s UK):
http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/h2g2/A4008638
It never cease to amaze me how simple pieces of written english can be so misread or misinterpreted. John Kettley was a popular BBC/Met office meteo’ some years ago and being a tyke was well known for his clear, precise forecasts. Sometime during his spell with the met & BBC he contributed to a global warming programme programme given a weather forecast for a year and month (winter month) sometime in our future. I remember the max day temp being 8°C as opposed to the then ave max of 6°C. Well we haven’t reached that yet and probably won’t this century.
Now John being John I think he is saying that the last 2 british summers were not a SYMPTOM of global warming but of the recent drop in “global” temperatures resulting from, PERHAPS, the recent La Nina. That should not be controversial, after all even Hansen’s famous adjustments have shown a decrease in global temp over the past year. He also says that “global warming has stalled”. That means that he thought that global warming WAS REAL” but that in recent times it has not be obvious in the temps quoted by all the major monitoring organisations, inc GISS.
I hope you and John and others of similar ilk will continue to broadcast their knowledge in the same reasonable, well measured tones of John’s article. AND great sense of humour.
Come on folks for U4H it is unfathomable that scientists question, which is all one needs to know about U4H.
For the second summer in a row the farmers in this area are having difficulty finding a few warm sunny days to harvest their hay and silage. Last year some farmers had to wait until August the 30th, and this year I kow of one farmer who has not cut any grass yet, maybe it will rot in the fields.
I am reminded of reports of 1315 -1317 when the peasants starved because excessively wet summers stopped the harvests. These two wet summers were a prelude to thirty years of cool weather
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_of_1315-1317
“There was one catastrophic dip in the weather during the Medieval Warm Period that coincided with the onset of the Great Famine. Between 1310 and 1330 northern Europe saw some of the worst and most sustained periods of bad weather in the entire Middle Ages, characterized by severe winters and rainy and cold summers.”
Frank L/Denmark
“It shows the vast areas freezing over north of Baffin Island in no time right now.”
Not sure what it is you are looking at. Here is a comparison of Western Arctic including the North Pole:
First from July 31, 08, the second from August 23, 08
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/AK/2008/ims2008213_alaska.gif
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif
It looks like the Arctic is going through its normal melt throughout the region.
Then again I am not sure what that got to do with a cold English summer.
When he says “so-called global warming” he obviously means so-called man-made global warming, since he follows it by saying “These conditions are not unique and are more like the poor August weather Britain saw during the Twenties and Sixties.” Thus, it is proof that climate change is natural, continual, and cyclical.
Then he says “It is more likely a stark reminder that the warming trend we recorded in the last part of the 20th Century has now stalled. Globally, 1998 remains the warmest of the last 150 years.” Again, climate change is natural. No man-made imprint, or at least none of any consequence.
Bravo for scientist John Kettley.
U4H: You’ve been brainwashed by AGW pseudo-science. Welcome to the world of science.
Stephen Richards (04:53:26) :
“I hope you and John and others of similar ilk will continue to broadcast their knowledge in the same reasonable, well measured tones of John’s article. AND great sense of humour.”
OMG!
Did I misread this?
Or is this a warmist pleading for “reasonable, well measured tones” ???
And HUMOUR?????!!!!
Was Al Gore’s movie a comedy because he actually INTENDED it to be?
Global warming anxiety ebbs and floes with the weather.
A good heat wave or warmer than normal conditions for awhile and the warmers from the global warming community and the media whip everyone into the new level of global warming anxiety.
Even politicians get caught up in it as almost all new climate change policies come out during some period of warmer than normal temperatures.
A cool wet summer and suddenly everyone is questioning the theory again.
I have been watching the UK weather patterns all summer long, courtesy of the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts)
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/
The storm track has lain right along 45 to 55 degrees latitude virtually the entire summer, with the UK right under it, getting hit with one storm after another.
Since the beginning of summer, the pattern has been predominantly “high-amplitude,” (much more north-south wind flow than west-east), with a strong tendency for large low-pressure systems to form over the Atlantic between the UK and Greenland, then move over the UK with cold winds and showers.
At the moment, the upper-air flow is more “zonal” (west to east winds), but the ECMWF forecast for the week upcoming shows the flow quickly returning to pattern, with another large, windy, wet low north of Ireland by Monday week.
The “high-amplitude” flow pattern is typical of negative-phase NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), and, if it continues into winter, suggests frequent episodes of “blocking” – large high-pressure systems that “block” the storm track, tending to keep the UK under entrenched Scandinavian or even Siberian cold air for extended periods.
I have experienced these sorts of winters in the UK, and they do become tiresome after just a couple “blocking” episodes.
Many in Britain pride themselves as being the greenest of the green, and I wonder how “Global Warming” (sorry, how un-PC of me – how “Climate Change”) will be spun, should Britain have a winter like, say, the legendary British winter of 1963.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_1963
John-X (09:10:17) :
‘”Since the beginning of summer, the pattern has been predominantly “high-amplitude,”’
Sorry, didn’t mean to imply that this pattern started at midnight on the summer solstice. It began much earlier.
Mr. Kettley will most certainly feel the heat of the AG WARMongers when they tie him to the stake and light the fire. The only question is, will they send his widow the bill for carbon offsets?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1556805/It's-all-April's-fault.html
“In September 1954 the editor of Weather, the Royal Meteorological Society’s house magazine, wrote:
“At the end of a summer whose coolness and wetness have provided subject matter for cartoonists and ideas for advertisers, it is now possible to recall that there have been such summers before.
“Situated as we are at the downwind end of the Atlantic, this summer’s weather is not so unlikely that atomic explosions, flying saucers, or condensation trails … need be invoked in explanation.”
But I expect that man-made CO2 will be so invoked.
In the Southern Hemisphere, and in particular Australia and New Zealand, this August will be the coldest in a long time, perhaps since records began. It might just push the media to a ‘tipping point’ and then the whole AGW house of cards comes down.
Philip_B (09:35:12) wrote: “In the Southern Hemisphere, and in particular Australia and New Zealand, this August will be the coldest in a long time, perhaps since records began. It might just push the media to a ‘tipping point’ and then the whole AGW house of cards comes down.”
Highly unlikely! The media, led by Reuters, the AP, NYT, Tribune Companies, and ABCNNBCBS, are part and parcel of the entire charade. In the final analysis, it’ll be the likes of the true (and honest) scientists, researchers, speakers, and yes – bloggers (like those on this site) – who take this fiasco down by spreading the truth about the miscreants using our mysterious climate in an attempt to fleece the world!
Jack Koenig, Editor
The Mysterious Climate Project
http://www.climateclinic.com
Speaking of harvest anecdotes, and wet Augusts, here in Mat-Su valley crops are late, and the hay is too wet to harvest. I talked to some farmers just down the road and they’ve only taken in about 800 bales of hay, when normally they’d have 10,000 by now. Sadly, they sell most of that hay for a large chunk of their annual income.
They told me they need at least three sunny days in a row to dry it. I haven’t seen more than a day and a half go by without rain this August.
Nice post, Al Gore just puked a bit on his solar water heater.
Philip_B:
Australia had its coldest June on record last year. It may have its coldest August on record this year. If Kevin Rudd Climatology doesn’t come crashing down after this month, the weather, no matter how cold, will ever kill it. Jack Koenig is right. People need to defeat AGW. Gaia owes us “nasty little apes”(quote from State of Fear) nothing, and She will not kill AGW in the Southern Hemisphere. Because as far as the IPCC and American and European media are concerned, the Southern Hemisphere doesn’t exist. The whole world exists in the Arctic.
McGrats (11:51:46) :
“…Highly unlikely! The media, led by Reuters, the AP, NYT, Tribune Companies, and ABCNNBCBS, are part and parcel of the entire charade.”
Very true!
Now they obviously have a bit of a problem on their hands, have had for a while.
If, as I and many others believe, their problem gets much worse this winter and next year, will it become impossible for them to go on spinning it, so they just quietly let the story die?
Do they “brass it out” and turn up the volume of the histrionics?
It seems to me that many have way too much invested to drop it, but does that apply to for-profit media as well? Will they be willing to go down with the sinking green ship?
And as we know, the 70’s global cooling scare morphed easily into the 1988-present global warming scam.
When “AGW” is clearly a dead issue, what will be manufactured to take its place?
“Will they be willing to go down with the sinking green ship?” John-X
Green or mean?
How can one be green,
and yet to plants be mean?
They simply cannot do
without a gas called CO2.
John-X, here in Canada the CBC is heavily invested in it; particularly apremier radiio science show called quark & quarks. The presenter huimself is personally committed to global warming.
He cannot let the story die as it will not die. And it is up to us to demand an accounting, by writing to these organizations and persuing the liars.
If the cooling keeps up to the point that it simply becomes undeniable, then it is possible that the media will just let it die, that is their normal M.O. But significant cooling for an extended stretch will hit agriculture and many parts of the world economy very hard, and will itself be big news. Impossible to ignore.
My prediction is that if it becomes impossible to ignore, then the media will not be able to stomach any responsibility for the AGW hysteria. Somebody will take a hit, and then once there’s blood in the water, the media sharks will turn on their current idols with a viciousness that will surprise everyone. We don’t know what will spark it, but IF we’re really in for a long, painful cooling spell, I don’t see the ‘warming’ story just going away. I think there will be revenge by those who will claim they’d been mislead or lied to about it or whatever.
There is extra media motive in the zillion-dollar carbon trading market. Does that go away quietly when it becomes obvious there’s never been any need for such a thing? Or will it go down in scandalous flames where everyone who ever made a penny off it is hauled before the front-page tribunals to account for their actions?
If I’m a media guy, all that would be too juicy to ignore, especially when you can reasonably claim you’d been duped by such credible authorities as a NASA chief scientist and a former vice president.
Heads on pikes, that’s my prediction.
ABCNNBCBS
very clever, I’d just like to add the Canadian copntingent:
ABCBCNNBCBS
“When “AGW” is clearly a dead issue, what will be manufactured to take its place?”
More Club of Rome bullcrap
Animal “rights”
The extreme dangers of genetic manipulation
Economic “equality”
…and the like
No shortage, you’ll see.
I think John Kettley’s voice can be added to those of David Bellamy and Alan Titchmarsh, who have provided a much-needed contrast here in the UK to the shrill, panic-stricken cries of the alarmists.
On the subject of ice cream, I’ll have two scoops of Ben & Jerry’s excellent Fossil Fuel. But not today – this August has not provided much ice-cream weather so far, and it has been struggling to get higher than twenty degrees here in London, of late.
Hopefully the Azores High will make an appearance towards the end of the month – I’ll have my ice cream then.
The AGW (or ACC) train is soon going to be de-railed due to ever decreasing world wide temperatures.
“When “AGW” is clearly a dead issue, what will be manufactured to take its place?”
The politicians are already trying to morph AGW into ACC (climate change), hence ANY change in climate from “normal” (ridiculous), will be man’s fault.
What they’ll do is blame it all on us. They’ll say that we pushed things too far, and it tipped things in the other direction. This is why they’ve changed the terminology from Global Warming to Global Climate Change. Anything, in any direction may be attributed to man, so we must send them money! Kind of reminds me of an old Hank Williams Jr song, speaking of televangialists… “they want you to send your money to the Lord but they give you their address.”
The attempt to morph AGW into ACC is not working very well – at least with the media, as they seem pretty well stuck on “Global Warming”. Besides people would need to forget nearly 20 years of constant propaganda.
I’m not sure though that this will mitigate the media’s share of blame when the people wake up. Then again, if things start warming again they won’t need to worry. The solar connection, after all, is just another unproven hypothesis.
You will always hear good sense from John Kettley, he’s a cricket man.
Anthony–did you see this?
http://www.quantcast.com/profile/traffic-compare?domain0=climatecrisis.net&domain1=wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com&domain2=&domain3=&domain4=
Anthony way above Gore
REPLY: Thanks Bob, I’m reminded of a phrase often uttered by the father, “Frank” from the TV sitcom Everybody Loves Raymond:
HOLY CRAP!
However…
http://www.quantcast.com/profile/traffic-compare?domain0=climatecrisis.net&domain1=wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com&domain2=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wecansolveit.org%2F&domain3=&domain4=
We still have work to do.
Include stopglobalwarming.org and the picture doesn’t change much.
http://www.quantcast.com/profile/traffic-compare?domain0=climatecrisis.net&domain1=wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com&domain2=stopglobalwarming.org&domain3=&domain4=
Perhaps Anthony could take over that $300,000,000 advertising account AG set up to draw attention to AGW. Add a Watt’s Up flavor and traffic could soar there.
Nah – I like the current arrangement. At least we get our money’s worth from Anthony, and then some!
“We still have work to do.” Danny Vettoretti (17:00:55) :
I can’t see how anything but a long cold spell will turn the tide with the general public UNLESS the top AGW leaders have enough integrity to admit it when they are proven wrong. I hope they do because the stakes are very high. I would hate to have misleading the public on a crucial issue on my conscience. But the work Anthony and others do is invaluable in keeping the loyal opposition going.
Using AOL sometimes there is news on the climate – well AOL has found out about the Greenland glacier crack. As an add-on they have an 18 slide pictorial of “global warming” “”””facts”””””, mostly a rehash of earlier stories.
http://http%3a%2f%2fnews%2eaol%2ecom%2farticle%2fgreenland%2dglacier%2dshows%2dgiant%2dnew%2dcrack%2f144181%3ficid%3d200100125x1207814568x1200455047 Whew!
For those of you going on about the media, I have a short story. My college degree is in Radio and Television. A professor of mine, Burt Harrison, used to write and read a PBS (Precursor of NPR) show “Science in the News”. His prime source was the Reader’s Digest. Of course he had access to some good scientists at the University, and used them occasionally, but the prime resource was the Digest. His theory was the Digest was written for the average person, in prose that explained the technology simply so it needed little massaging to make it a radio script.
It wasn’t what bleeds leads, or even what was most outlandish, it was the science that interested Burt. If he trained any of the media types (and he did train Keith Jackson and knew Ed Morrow) that are spewing this drivel today, he is turning in his grave. Were he writing today, I think he would be presenting both sides of the issue in the fairest way he could. Damn, we could use the old codger! (he gave me an F once)
Mike
Robert Wood (13:42:29) wrote: “ABCNNBCBS very clever, I’d just like to add the Canadian copntingent: ABCBCNNBCBS”
Thanks, Robert, I’ll give that a permanent spot!
Jack Koenig, Editor
The Mysterious Climate Project
http://www.climateclinic.com
If Global Warming doesn’t exist, than neither does ice cream. When are we going to address issues, rather than saying, “I’ll be dead by the time that happens,” or “It’s not my problem,” or “There is nothing I can do about it”?
The only thing that correlates is warm/cool multidecadal oceanic-atmospheric cycles.
Warming stopped when the last of them went positive in 2001. Now the PDO has begun its cooling phase (on schedule) and the AO is going cold (2 decades ahead of schedule). Temperatures are down severely over the last 18 months.
We just can’t do anything about that.
CO2 correlates quite poorly. Positive feedback loops appear to be simply not happening. Direct CO2 effect is minuscule unless amplified by positive feedback.
(And if all that is wrong, then don’t worry, global warming will take care of the ice cream.)
Make mine chocolate.
Many on this site are already going out of their way to save energy and resources, purely because it makes economic sense.
Not me. But my carbon footprint is so tiny that I actually “deserve” to live till age 59 according to that “pig-killing” test the Rev posted awhile back.
Not to worry UK and New Zealand, GRISS will take care of you. You will either be dropped from the mix or adjusted upward.
When I first started digging into the CO2 theory it was referred as CO2 induced global warming. At some point (2003maybe?) the CO2 induced was dropped and the new term was global warming was the mantra. But an unexpected event happened, oceans cooled, global temperature trend took a nose dive and, of course, GHG model missed there mark, we got the name “Climate Change”.
Is the tide turning ?
There is a lot of kicking and screaming to come no doubt.
Not to mention the screaming they will do when we kick them.
As Ali might have said, the worm squirms when the burn turns.
The “high-amplitude” flow pattern is typical of negative-phase NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), and, if it continues into winter, suggests frequent episodes of “blocking” – large high-pressure systems that “block” the storm track, tending to keep the UK under entrenched Scandinavian or even Siberian cold air for extended periods.
If the NAO is flipping, can the AMO be far behind? (And what’s the deal with the NPO and IPO? They’re supposed to follow PDO, right?)
BTW, U4H, stick around.
You might even change your mind like a lot of (if not most of) the folks around here.
Mr Bob B said (15:38:20) :
“Anthony–did you see this?”
http://www.quantcast.com/profile/traffic-compare?domain0=climatecrisis.net&domain1=wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com&domain2=&domain3=&domain4=
I’m not sure we can trust that graph, it does seem to be shaped somewhat like a hockey stick.
You will either be dropped from the mix or adjusted upward.
Thank goodness. It was getting chilly.
Anything, in any direction may be attributed to man, so we must send them money!
You know how the indulgence biz works. “Further sins require further expense.”
All of you cold, northern hemisphere people should emigrate to Aust as, according to our government (see http://www.climatechange.gov.au/science/faq/question2.html) we are heading for even more high temps. Note that they are still stating ‘Eleven of the past 12 years were the warmest we have experienced since around 1860’ and ‘average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were likely to have been the highest in at least the past 1300 years’. So you are all wrong – you only THINK you are cold.
You can maybe work in the new mines we are opening to export our ‘dirty’ coal and uranium to other countries where they will use it to increase the CO2 level while we, in our self-deprecating manner, will embrace a carbon tax to offset our 1.4% of the man-made CO2 contribution.
@aussie john
Its not likely that its the warmest in 1300 years, there are many reports that contradict that,
what is certain is that that it has beens very cold the last 3 million years, it cooled over 10 degrees C and the last million years are the coldest. (15 milion years ago it was localy 20 degrees warmer in antarctica)
Ice on the poles is unique in the history of the earth (less than 1% off the time), also the last (eemian) interglacial 120 Kyears ago was at least 3 degrees (c) warmer than this interglacial.
So yeah it actually is Cold..
The term ‘Climate Change’ was until recently used to describe ‘Natural Warming’ over time… and ‘Global Warming’ was used to describe Human caused warming (AGW= Anthropogenic Global Warming). The term ‘Climate Change’ has been hijacked by the AGW’ers. And it makes me smile when I get described as a ‘Climate Change Denier’, Why??? because climate change is the very thing that I (and many scientists) KNOW happens time and time again over timescales of hundreds, thousands, and millions of years. The climate changes… that is what is does…I for one do not deny this fact
So has anyone planned for what will happen if we get climate change to cold instead of warming??…. The sun may well be doing something ‘odd’ at this time, and some solar astronomers are starting to make ‘noises’ about it. The sun has gone very ‘quiet’ and quite a few solar astronomers are concerned that the sun may be entering a new ‘low’ period of activity (grand minimum) which may last a long time.
The sun went quiet during the ‘maunder’ solar minimum. This was during a period known as the little Ice age (LIA) starting some 400 years ago tail ending about 1850. (1850 is the year AGW’ers start their warming graphs from ! ) Over the past 10000 years (since the last Ice age proper), there have been many times when the temperature was lower than now and times when it was at least as high if not higher. This was obviously not caused by Co2…( no cars back then). So whatever mechanism caused these climate changes is ‘natural ‘ and so is still there, ‘lurking’ in the background. If this does happen ( and some think it has already started ) It will be a disaster far greater than the worst warming predictions.
The thing is that the ‘sunspots cycles’ fit the observed temperature changes better than Co2 .However even if the mechanism for the correlation linking sunspots and the world climate has not been found . It is evident that there must be one, and the Solar cycle/cosmic rays/cloud cover is the best bet so far. But as I say even if this theory does not pan out THERE has to be a connection waiting to be found.
There were almost no sunspots on the sun between 1650 and 1700 (and very few for hundred years either side). This was the ‘maunder’ minimum. during this time the temperature of the world plummeted. From about 1600 to 1840 sunspot cycles 5 and 6 were also very ‘low’ this was the ‘Dalton’ minimum and again the world temp dropped. Then cycle 20 in the early 1970’s was ‘low’ this corresponds to the 1970’s ‘ice age scare’. The period covered by last few cycles are referred to by astronomers as ‘the modern (temperature) Maximum..(as I say this is by astronomers… not climatologists). And the temp has indeed gone up in the latter 20th century. Sunspot cycle 23 has still not yet ended and shows signs of not doing so until perhaps next year.. and the Worlds temp has INDEED dropped again..the next nearest similar cycle was 200 years ago. IF the Sun is indeed to the main factor in Global warming (and cooling)…and IF we were heading for another cold period then removing Co2 from the atmosphere (at great cost) could therefore make things worse. We can live with warm. …but millions may suffer and die if we get years/decades of extended cold…all forms of transport snowed to a halt, power/gas outages, crop failures, food/water shortages, disease, and maybe war …not good!! ….William Herschel (astronomer) In 1801 noted that when there are few spots on the sun the price of wheat goes up…. Well the price of wheat has gone up..and so has the price of lots of other foods, and there have been food riots in some 25 countries recently. Millions of tons of food have been destroyed by cold/frost… There has been no global warming for almost 10 years….1998 being the most recent warmest year. All this will turn out to be caused by the Sun…the Sun drives the climate as it always has, and the temp. goes up and down…and even some climatologists are now saying we should expect the current cooling to continue for ‘at least’ another 10-30 years…..This does not fit AGW theory . Bring back warm!!!
Paul (Devon)
As a scientist and fellow Devonian, I agree with you entirely. I’m watching the sunspots. Bring back a bit of warmth into our lives after the last couple of dreadful summers. I have a good stock of timber dried and ready for use in my wood-burner. I just hope it doesn’t run out faster than I can cut it and dry it.
Phillip
“If the NAO is flipping, can the AMO be far behind?”
This could be the start of the “Perfect Storm”, where the globe sees a La Nina, negative NAO and a weakening positive AMO. However, somewhere in the world, there will be an adjustment in the long wave upper wind pattern where the amplitude of a corresponding warm ridge forms to compensate for the formation of deep upper level cold lows (sub-polar vortex). Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi calls this the signalling of teleconnections.
If both NAmerica and Europe suffer through a frigid, wet winter some place will see a comensating warm, dry winter. Guess which areas will get the attention? Austrailia could see a scorchingly hot dry Dec-Feb. Warm artic SSTs could remain bottled up for the next several years. The Alarmists continue thier fixation on polar ice as it is thier only game in town for them.
Aussie John (19:39:55) wrote: “All of you cold, northern hemisphere people should emigrate to Aust as, according to our government we are heading for even more high temps. ”
Interesting article… it completly left out the MWP and the LIA. It’s obvious the agenda driven Dragon Lady has her imprint on the government run media.
Jack Koenig, Editor
The Mysterious Climate Project
http://www.climateclinic.com
The MSM/politicians excel at spinning things 180 deg w/o a blink. Whatever the weather does, it’ll be pinned on something that can be regulated by the STATE.
If CO2 were scientifically acquited of warming effects and it warms, man-made ozone would be next in line. Next, methane, and so on. If it cools, aerosols will be blamed.
The problem with the MSM promoting something that has not taken place or at least does not behave like what they think (i.e. CO2 induced global warming) is that it does not give a chance for the farmers to plan for the years to come. Here too in the Fraser Valley in BC, Canada we had a very crappy Spring and cool summer. We now have Fall weather in August. You can see that the corn fields are way too small and that the harvest will be very poor if any. I’ve seen some farmers plowing their fields in the middle of summer to try and plant something else that might give them some results.
If they would stop telling people that it will get warmer and instead giving them the real forcast, the farmers could use other methods and other seeds to get the crops they (and we) need.
“Hopefully the Azores High will make an appearance towards the end of the month – I’ll have my ice cream then.”
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/europe/surface_pressure.html
Looks as if it could be on its way.
To quote the song from A Tribe of Toffs…
John Kettley is a weatherman, a weatherman, a weatherman,
John Kettley is a weatherman…
And so is Michael Fish!
Michael Fish – famous for getting a forecast completely wrong http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLUxsmADWrA&feature=related
Michael Fish DID NOT get the forcast “completely wrong”. It was NOT a hurricane! The only bit he got wrong was to say that most of the strong winds would be down into Spain and France.
Definition of a hurricane http://www.thefreedictionary.com/hurricane
Noun
a severe, often destructive storm, esp. a tropical cyclone [Spanish huracán]
Collins Essential English Dictionary 2nd Edition 2006 © HarperCollins Publishers 2004, 2006
From the report 4 times bigger than a hurricane and recorded wind speeds over 100mph and the words used in the earlier forecast were a bit breezy in the Channel and the Eastern side of the country – you could call that typical British understatement
Oldjim (14:25:32) :
It appears you’ve gotten what you paid for in that dictionary. I’m not all that familiar with that storm, but the fronts attached to it, and the latitude, strongly suggest it was an extratropical cyclone. Hurricanes have a warm core from aid descending in the core and are powered by vertical temperature differences. Extratropical cyclones are powered by horizontal temperature differences.
The “eye” of the storm is interesting. Extratropical storms aren’t supposed to to have them, but they show up from time to time on really strong nor’easters in New England. They are the subject of some study, but have not been investigated by hurricane hunter planes. I suspect they may represent a point where the wind is blowing so fast that the center of the storm can’t suck it into the real center. Which is pretty much like a hurricane eye.
Hurricanes transform into extratropical storms as they pass over cooler water or join up with a frontal boundary. When that happens, the wind and rain field spreads out, so comments about the storm being 4X the size of a hurricane also suggest it wasn’t a hurricane. That it had hurricane force winds doesn’t make a it a hurricane.
On the other hand, nor’easters can be quite devastating. My grandparents had an old house on Long Beach Island, NJ that survived several hurricanes in the 1950s but was knocked over in a nor’easter in March 1962. That storm cut the island in three places and it was never quite the same again.
Sorry to be so pedantic, but this is a _science_ blog.
Global warming is a hoax. Read this carefully and then try to explain it to a Politician or Weather Person.
http://nzclimatescience.net/images/PDFs/gwhoaxborn.pdf