Comments on: Australian Space Weather Agency Revises Solar Cycle 24 Start, Adding 6 Months http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/08/21/australian-space-weather-agency-pushes-solar-cycle-24-up-6-months/ Commentary on puzzling things in life, nature, science, weather, climate change, technology, and recent news by Anthony Watts Sun, 08 Nov 2009 06:54:31 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: putri-bali http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/08/21/australian-space-weather-agency-pushes-solar-cycle-24-up-6-months/#comment-66786 putri-bali Fri, 26 Dec 2008 01:05:09 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=2417#comment-66786 it's a nice site. keep on updating, i love to read much... bikebali it’s a nice site. keep on updating, i love to read much…
bikebali

]]> By: John A. Jauregui http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/08/21/australian-space-weather-agency-pushes-solar-cycle-24-up-6-months/#comment-47370 John A. Jauregui Fri, 10 Oct 2008 04:38:50 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=2417#comment-47370 I just returned from visiting Yellowstone and was struck by the devastation of the 1988 fires, which were preceeded by acute drought and record setting dry lightening. I began to wonder what solar activity occured leading up the 1988 fire storms. Solar cycle 22 started just a couple of years before that summer of drought and dry lightening. Check this out. Relative to other cycles, that solar cycle had 1) a very fast rise time - 2.8 years, 2) a very short cycle length - 9.7 years, 3) a high minimum sun spot number - 12.3, and 4) a high maximum sun spot number - 158.5 more: “Cycle 22 certainly provided us with many highlights. Early in the cycle the smoothed sunspot number (determined by the number of sunspots visible on the sun and used as the traditional measure of the cycle) climbed rapidly; in fact more rapidly than for any previously recorded cycle. This caused many to predict that it would eclipse Cycle 19 (peak sunspot number of 201) as the highest cycle on record. This was not to be as the sunspot number ceased climbing in early 1989 and reached a maximum in July of that year. Whilst not of record amplitude, Cycle 22 still rated as 4th of the recorded cycles and continued the run of recent large solar cycles (Cycles 18, 19 and 21 were all exceptional!). A very notable feature of Cycle 22 was that it had the shortest rise from minimum to maximum of any recorded cycle.” Material Prepared by Richard Thompson. © Copyright IPS - Radio and Space Services. I just returned from visiting Yellowstone and was struck by the devastation of the 1988 fires, which were preceeded by acute drought and record setting dry lightening. I began to wonder what solar activity occured leading up the 1988 fire storms. Solar cycle 22 started just a couple of years before that summer of drought and dry lightening. Check this out. Relative to other cycles, that solar cycle had 1) a very fast rise time – 2.8 years, 2) a very short cycle length – 9.7 years, 3) a high minimum sun spot number – 12.3, and 4) a high maximum sun spot number – 158.5

more:

“Cycle 22 certainly provided us with many highlights. Early in the cycle the smoothed sunspot number (determined by the number of sunspots visible on the sun and used as the traditional measure of the cycle) climbed rapidly; in fact more rapidly than for any previously recorded cycle. This caused many to predict that it would eclipse Cycle 19 (peak sunspot number of 201) as the highest cycle on record. This was not to be as the sunspot number ceased climbing in early 1989 and reached a maximum in July of that year. Whilst not of record amplitude, Cycle 22 still rated as 4th of the recorded cycles and continued the run of recent large solar cycles (Cycles 18, 19 and 21 were all exceptional!). A very notable feature of Cycle 22 was that it had the shortest rise from minimum to maximum of any recorded cycle.”
Material Prepared by Richard Thompson. © Copyright IPS – Radio and Space Services.

]]> By: dec 21 2012 http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/08/21/australian-space-weather-agency-pushes-solar-cycle-24-up-6-months/#comment-39411 dec 21 2012 Mon, 15 Sep 2008 08:12:38 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=2417#comment-39411 [...] for Solar Cycle 24, pushing it??s start into the future by six months. They write: Due to the proximhttp://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/08/21/australian-space-weather-agency-pushes-solar-cycle-2...2012 - Crystalinks2012. Prophecies throughout time have named this as the end time, movement to a [...] [...] for Solar Cycle 24, pushing it??s start into the future by six months. They write: Due to the proximhttp://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/08/21/australian-space-weather-agency-pushes-solar-cycle-2…2012 – Crystalinks2012. Prophecies throughout time have named this as the end time, movement to a [...]

]]> By: Nik http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/08/21/australian-space-weather-agency-pushes-solar-cycle-24-up-6-months/#comment-37738 Nik Tue, 09 Sep 2008 10:21:57 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=2417#comment-37738 David Hathaway said cycle 24 was starting in 2006. http://space.newscientist.com/article/dn9778-first-sunspot-of-next-solar-cycle-glimpsed.html errrr.... maybe 2007.....2008.....2009? David Hathaway said cycle 24 was starting in 2006.
http://space.newscientist.com/article/dn9778-first-sunspot-of-next-solar-cycle-glimpsed.html

errrr…. maybe 2007…..2008…..2009?

]]> By: H.Oldeboom http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/08/21/australian-space-weather-agency-pushes-solar-cycle-24-up-6-months/#comment-36293 H.Oldeboom Wed, 03 Sep 2008 21:40:38 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=2417#comment-36293 My conclusion (as a mechanical engineer) is now that solar science is NOT settled and therefore consequences for global climate too. As long as this is the case we have to inform Mr. Gore and tell him his expectations about future developments of global climate are highly uncertain. My conclusion (as a mechanical engineer) is now that solar science is NOT settled and therefore consequences for global climate too. As long as this is the case we have to inform Mr. Gore and tell him his expectations about future developments of global climate are highly uncertain.

]]> By: Solar Cycle 24 is still late, perhaps signalling cool weather ahead « Fabius Maximus http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/08/21/australian-space-weather-agency-pushes-solar-cycle-24-up-6-months/#comment-35920 Solar Cycle 24 is still late, perhaps signalling cool weather ahead « Fabius Maximus Tue, 02 Sep 2008 15:49:52 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=2417#comment-35920 [...] We continue to remain in a deep solar minimum, and with the forecasts being modified to push back the real “active” start of Solar cycle 24, it remains anybody’s guess as to when the sun will come out of it’s [...] [...] We continue to remain in a deep solar minimum, and with the forecasts being modified to push back the real “active” start of Solar cycle 24, it remains anybody’s guess as to when the sun will come out of it’s [...]

]]> By: Sun poised to make history with first spotless month since 1913 « ATI - All Things Interesting http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/08/21/australian-space-weather-agency-pushes-solar-cycle-24-up-6-months/#comment-35271 Sun poised to make history with first spotless month since 1913 « ATI - All Things Interesting Sun, 31 Aug 2008 13:37:10 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=2417#comment-35271 [...] The sun has been particularly quiet in the last several months, so quiet in fact that Australia’s space weather agency recently revised their solar cycle 24 forecast, pushing the expected date for a ramping up of cycle 24 sunspots into the future by six months. [...] [...] The sun has been particularly quiet in the last several months, so quiet in fact that Australia’s space weather agency recently revised their solar cycle 24 forecast, pushing the expected date for a ramping up of cycle 24 sunspots into the future by six months. [...]

]]> By: Sun poised to make first spotless month since 1913 « Watts Up With That? http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/08/21/australian-space-weather-agency-pushes-solar-cycle-24-up-6-months/#comment-35086 Sun poised to make first spotless month since 1913 « Watts Up With That? Sat, 30 Aug 2008 20:42:18 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=2417#comment-35086 [...] The sun has been particularly quiet in the last several months, so quiet in fact that Australia’s space weather agency recently revised their solar cycle 24 forecast, pushing the expected date for a ramping up of cycle 24 sunspots into the future by six months. [...] [...] The sun has been particularly quiet in the last several months, so quiet in fact that Australia’s space weather agency recently revised their solar cycle 24 forecast, pushing the expected date for a ramping up of cycle 24 sunspots into the future by six months. [...]

]]> By: The Sun remains in a magnetic funk « Watts Up With That? http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/08/21/australian-space-weather-agency-pushes-solar-cycle-24-up-6-months/#comment-35035 The Sun remains in a magnetic funk « Watts Up With That? Sat, 30 Aug 2008 16:31:29 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=2417#comment-35035 [...] continue to remain into a deep solar minimum, and with the forecasts being modified to push back the real “active” start of Solar cycle 24, it remains anybody’s guess as to when the sun will come out of it’s [...] [...] continue to remain into a deep solar minimum, and with the forecasts being modified to push back the real “active” start of Solar cycle 24, it remains anybody’s guess as to when the sun will come out of it’s [...]

]]> By: Leif Svalgaard http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/08/21/australian-space-weather-agency-pushes-solar-cycle-24-up-6-months/#comment-34651 Leif Svalgaard Fri, 29 Aug 2008 05:00:39 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=2417#comment-34651 Pamela Gray (19:45:15) : <i>Do you have feedback on why ozone seems to be pretty thin in some areas and thick in others</i> Most of the ozone is produced by UV in the <i>tropical</i> stratosphere and then redistributed to other areas by something called the Brewster-Dobson Circulation: see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brewer-Dobson_circulation This could play a role. I'm sure there is data out there, but don't know of the top of my head where would be best to go. Try google, its good for this. Pamela Gray (19:45:15) :
Do you have feedback on why ozone seems to be pretty thin in some areas and thick in others
Most of the ozone is produced by UV in the tropical stratosphere and then redistributed to other areas by something called the Brewster-Dobson Circulation: see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brewer-Dobson_circulation
This could play a role. I’m sure there is data out there, but don’t know of the top of my head where would be best to go. Try google, its good for this.

]]> By: Pamela Gray http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/08/21/australian-space-weather-agency-pushes-solar-cycle-24-up-6-months/#comment-34634 Pamela Gray Fri, 29 Aug 2008 02:47:49 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=2417#comment-34634 addendum I understand about the Antarctic ozone hole that comes and goes. I am not referring to that area. addendum

I understand about the Antarctic ozone hole that comes and goes. I am not referring to that area.

]]> By: Pamela Gray http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/08/21/australian-space-weather-agency-pushes-solar-cycle-24-up-6-months/#comment-34633 Pamela Gray Fri, 29 Aug 2008 02:45:15 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=2417#comment-34633 It is true that when the Sun is active, cosmic rays are high. But when measured here on Earth they are low because they are being deflected. They are now being allowed to rain through our ozone. Happens every minimum. Do you have feedback on why ozone seems to be pretty thin in some areas and thick in others? I have been following that thin area all summer over the northwest portion of the US and it is getting bigger. It also seems to wax and wan through the day, growing bigger as the day progresses and then seems to thicken up a bit through the night. But overall, it has been getting thinner and the area of thinning has grown. I understand that I am just eyeballing the color change but it has been more than obvious. Do you see any trends in ozone from when the Sun was at maximums in the last 30 years till now? Does that data exist? It is true that when the Sun is active, cosmic rays are high. But when measured here on Earth they are low because they are being deflected. They are now being allowed to rain through our ozone. Happens every minimum. Do you have feedback on why ozone seems to be pretty thin in some areas and thick in others? I have been following that thin area all summer over the northwest portion of the US and it is getting bigger. It also seems to wax and wan through the day, growing bigger as the day progresses and then seems to thicken up a bit through the night. But overall, it has been getting thinner and the area of thinning has grown. I understand that I am just eyeballing the color change but it has been more than obvious. Do you see any trends in ozone from when the Sun was at maximums in the last 30 years till now? Does that data exist?

]]> By: Leif Svalgaard http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/08/21/australian-space-weather-agency-pushes-solar-cycle-24-up-6-months/#comment-34516 Leif Svalgaard Thu, 28 Aug 2008 15:01:51 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=2417#comment-34516 Pamela Gray (07:33:45) : <i>very interested in the interaction of ozone, UV, magnetic properties of the Sun and Earth, and cosmic rays on the insulation factor of ozone and on surface temperature, water vapor and cloud formation.</i> The UV is not influenced by the Earth's magnetic field or with its interaction with the Sun's magnetic field. On the Sun, the magnetic field <i>is</i> part of the chain that enhances UV emission [and decreases the cosmic ray flux]. As the Sun is very quiet now, the UV and cosmic ray fluxes are close to [or at] their 'base values' which they seem to return to at every sunspot minimum, in particular the Grand minima, such as the Maunder and Dalton minima, so things are not unusual right now. Pamela Gray (07:33:45) :
very interested in the interaction of ozone, UV, magnetic properties of the Sun and Earth, and cosmic rays on the insulation factor of ozone and on surface temperature, water vapor and cloud formation.

The UV is not influenced by the Earth’s magnetic field or with its interaction with the Sun’s magnetic field.

On the Sun, the magnetic field is part of the chain that enhances UV emission [and decreases the cosmic ray flux]. As the Sun is very quiet now, the UV and cosmic ray fluxes are close to [or at] their ‘base values’ which they seem to return to at every sunspot minimum, in particular the Grand minima, such as the Maunder and Dalton minima, so things are not unusual right now.

]]> By: statePoet1775 http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/08/21/australian-space-weather-agency-pushes-solar-cycle-24-up-6-months/#comment-34508 statePoet1775 Thu, 28 Aug 2008 14:42:08 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=2417#comment-34508 "Otherwise I am tiring of the stereotype." Pam I had just dropped that topic with my question about is the earth getting charged. Here is an off topic poem, I can't wait for another article on polar bears: <i>concerning excessive concern for polar bears If you ever met a polar bear and he hadn't had his lunch the last sound to be heard from you would be a hearty "crunch".</i> “Otherwise I am tiring of the stereotype.” Pam

I had just dropped that topic with my question about is the earth getting charged. Here is an off topic poem, I can’t wait for another article on polar bears:

concerning excessive concern for polar bears

If you ever met a polar bear
and he hadn’t had his lunch
the last sound to be heard from you
would be a hearty “crunch”.

]]> By: Pamela Gray http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/08/21/australian-space-weather-agency-pushes-solar-cycle-24-up-6-months/#comment-34505 Pamela Gray Thu, 28 Aug 2008 14:33:45 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=2417#comment-34505 Good heavens. Enough with the redheads. And I'm not losing sleep over ozone. I'm just very interested in the interaction of ozone, UV, magnetic properties of the Sun and Earth, and cosmic rays on the insulation factor of ozone and on surface temperature, water vapor and cloud formation. If you have something to say intelligently on the subject of a serious inquiry great. Otherwise I am tiring of the stereotype. Good heavens. Enough with the redheads. And I’m not losing sleep over ozone. I’m just very interested in the interaction of ozone, UV, magnetic properties of the Sun and Earth, and cosmic rays on the insulation factor of ozone and on surface temperature, water vapor and cloud formation. If you have something to say intelligently on the subject of a serious inquiry great. Otherwise I am tiring of the stereotype.

]]> By: statePoet1775 http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/08/21/australian-space-weather-agency-pushes-solar-cycle-24-up-6-months/#comment-34473 statePoet1775 Thu, 28 Aug 2008 11:59:28 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=2417#comment-34473 "Like something ‘FatBigot’ could have said…" Leif Thanks. Nothing but disasters with redheads, though. "... from the ‘real’ cosmic rays [mostly protons] crashing ..." Lief Does this mean the earth is getting positively charged? “Like something ‘FatBigot’ could have said…” Leif
Thanks. Nothing but disasters with redheads, though.

“… from the ‘real’ cosmic rays [mostly protons] crashing …” Lief

Does this mean the earth is getting positively charged?

]]> By: Leif Svalgaard http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/08/21/australian-space-weather-agency-pushes-solar-cycle-24-up-6-months/#comment-34437 Leif Svalgaard Thu, 28 Aug 2008 04:22:13 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=2417#comment-34437 statePoet1775 (16:45:17) : <i>I’m sure Leif would agree that scientists should take a vow of poverty and celibacy (more redheads for the rest of us).</i> Like something 'FatBigot' could have said... Pamela Gray (17:18:51) : <i>Leif, what do you make of the thinning ozone over the northwest part of the US?</i> Nothing alarming at this point. I'll sleep well tonight [in Northern California], missing out on statePoet's redheads, though... statePoet1775 (16:45:17) :
I’m sure Leif would agree that scientists should take a vow of poverty and celibacy (more redheads for the rest of us).
Like something ‘FatBigot’ could have said…

Pamela Gray (17:18:51) :
Leif, what do you make of the thinning ozone over the northwest part of the US?
Nothing alarming at this point. I’ll sleep well tonight [in Northern California], missing out on statePoet’s redheads, though…

]]> By: Pamela Gray http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/08/21/australian-space-weather-agency-pushes-solar-cycle-24-up-6-months/#comment-34384 Pamela Gray Thu, 28 Aug 2008 00:18:51 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=2417#comment-34384 Leif, what do you make of the thinning ozone over the northwest part of the US? http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/rt/viewdata.php?product=o3_us Leif, what do you make of the thinning ozone over the northwest part of the US?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/rt/viewdata.php?product=o3_us

]]> By: statePoet1775 http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/08/21/australian-space-weather-agency-pushes-solar-cycle-24-up-6-months/#comment-34379 statePoet1775 Wed, 27 Aug 2008 23:45:17 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=2417#comment-34379 I'm sure Leif would agree that scientists should take a vow of poverty and celibacy (more redheads for the rest of us). I’m sure Leif would agree that scientists should take a vow of poverty and celibacy (more redheads for the rest of us).

]]> By: statePoet1775 http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/08/21/australian-space-weather-agency-pushes-solar-cycle-24-up-6-months/#comment-34349 statePoet1775 Wed, 27 Aug 2008 20:46:11 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/?p=2417#comment-34349 Actually, He is jealous FOR us and not OF us. Actually, He is jealous FOR us and not OF us.

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