One day later: Mauna Loa CO2 graph changes

4 08 2008

UPDATE: 08/07 2:PM PST MLO responds with improvements to the CO2 data reporting

Approximately 24 hours after I published my story on the January to July trend reversal of CO2 at Mauna Loa, the monthly mean graph that is displayed on the NOAA web page for Mauna Loa Observatory has changed. I’ve setup a blink comparator to show what has occurred:

For those who don’t know, a blink comparator is an animated GIF image with a 1 second delay consisting only of the two original images from NOAA MLO. Individual image URLS for: August 3rd ML CO2 graph | August 4th CO2 Graph

Now the there is no longer the dip I saw yesterday. Oddly the MLO CO2 dataset available by FTP still shows the timestamp from yesterday: File Creation:  Sun Aug  3 02:55:42 2008, and the July monthly mean value is unchanged in it to reflect the change on the graph.

[UPDATE: a few minutes after I posted this entry, the data changed at the FTP site] here is the new data for 2008:

#               decimal          mean    interpolated    trend
#               date                                                 (season corr)
2008   1    2008.042      385.37      385.37      385.18
2008   2    2008.125      385.69      385.69      384.77
2008   3    2008.208      385.94      385.94      384.50
2008   4    2008.292      387.21      387.21      384.46
2008   5    2008.375      388.47      388.47      385.46
2008   6    2008.458      387.87      387.87      385.51
2008   7    2008.542      385.60      385.60      385.25

and here is the 2008 data from Sunday, August 3rd:

2008   1    2008.042      385.35      385.35      385.11
2008   2    2008.125      385.70      385.70      384.85
2008   3    2008.208      385.92      385.92      384.38
2008   4    2008.292      387.21      387.21      384.59
2008   5    2008.375      388.48      388.48      385.33
2008   6    2008.458      387.99      387.99      385.76
2008   7    2008.542      384.93      384.93      384.54

Here is the MLO data file I saved yesterday (text converted to PDF) from their FTP site.

Here is the URL for the current data FTP:

ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_mm_mlo.txt

I have put in a query to Pieter Tans, the contact listed in the data file, asking for an explanation and  change log if one exists.

UPDATE 08/05 8:55AM PST I have received a response from MLO:

Anthony,

We appreciate your interest in the CO2 data.  The reason was simply that
we had a problem with the equipment for the first half of July, with the
result that the earlier monthly average consisted of only the last 10
days.  Since CO2 always goes down fast during July the monthly average
came out low.  I have now changed the program to take this effect into
account, and adjusting back to the middle of the month using the
multi-year average seasonal cycle.  This change also affected the entire
record because there are missing days here and there.  The other
adjustments were minor, typically less than 0.1 ppm.

Best regards,
Pieter Tans

UPDATE 08/05 4:03PM PST

I have been in dialog with Dr. Tans at MLO through the day and I’m now satisfied as to what has occurred and why.  Look for a follow-up post on the subject. – Anthony

UPDATE 08/06 3:00PM PST

A post-mortem of the Mauna Loa issue has been posted here:

http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/08/06/post-mortem-on-the-mauna-loa-co2-data-eruption/

- Anthony


Comments : 247 Comments »

Categories : Science, climate_change

NCDC: Photoshopping the climate change report for better impact

4 08 2008

Last week on Friday August 1st you may recall that I commented on the release of the Draft report Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States

In that post I mentioned that “The draft document reads more like a news article in many places than it does a scientific document, and unlike a scientific document, it has a number of what I would call “emotionally based graphics” in it that have nothing to do with the science.”

One of those graphics that tug at your heartstrings turns out to be a fabrication, pure and simple. Here is page 58 of the NCDC authored report:

Click for a larger image. Note the arrow pointing to this photo:

Image above taken directly from the CCSP report.

There’s been a discussion on Climate Audit about this photo, namely that it has the flood waters “photoshopped” in.

When I showed it to my graphic artist at my office he said, “no problem, I can recreate that using any house photo and a Photoshop filter.

I had contemplated having him do just that, but it turns out proving this photo to be a digital fabrication is a lot easier.

Simply go to IstockPhoto.com, where you can buy this photo online: Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 82 Comments »

Categories : climate_change, politics, ridiculae

Presidential Science Advisor Briefed On Potential For Mars Life

4 08 2008

This in an interesting story from Aviation Week

They say “the data relate to habitability” But it makes you wonder why they had to brief the Presidential Science Advisor on this.

UPDATE: Apparently the science team has had no official response, but has been using a twitter account to downplay the story. We do indeed live in interesting times. – Anthony

UPDATE2: From Slashdot- “In an update to the little green men story of not-life-on-Mars, NASA has twittered: ‘The buzz this weekend was due to an interesting soil chemistry finding, still preliminary, but now avail here:’ where ‘here’ is NASA Spacecraft Analyzing Martian Soil Data. The exciting bit: ‘Within the last month, two samples have been analyzed by the Wet Chemistry Lab of the spacecraft’s Microscopy, Electrochemistry, and Conductivity Analyzer, or MECA, suggesting one of the soil constituents may be perchlorate, a highly oxidizing substance.’ Also, ‘NASA will hold a media teleconference on Tuesday, Aug. 5, at 2 p.m. EDT, to discuss these recent science activities.’”

Aug 1, 2008  By Craig Covault

The White House has been alerted by NASA about plans to make an announcement soon on major new Phoenix lander discoveries concerning the “potential for life” on Mars, scientists tell Aviation Week & Space Technology.

Sources say the new data do not indicate the discovery of existing or past life on Mars. Rather the data relate to habitability–the “potential” for Mars to support life–at the Phoenix arctic landing site, sources say.

The data are much more complex than results related NASA’s July 31 announcement that Phoenix has confirmed the presence of water ice at the site.

International news media trumpeted the water ice confirmation, which was not a surprise to any of the Phoenix researchers. “They have discovered water on Mars for the third or fourth time,” one senior Mars scientists joked about the hubbub around the water ice announcement.

The other data not discussed openly yet are far more “provocative,” Phoenix officials say.

In fact, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory science team for the MECA wet-chemistry instrument that made the findings was kept out of a July 31 news conference at the University of Arizona Phoenix control center. The goal was to prevent them from being asked any questions that could reveal information before NASA is ready to make an announcement, sources say.

The Bush Administration’s Presidential Science Advisor’s office, however, has been briefed on the new information that NASA hopes to release as early as mid August. It is possible an announcement would not come until September, to allow for additional analysis. That will depend upon the latest results still being analyzed from the spacecraft’s organic oven and soil chemistry laboratories.

Phoenix scientists have said from the start that neither the TEGA organic chemistry lab nor the MECA wet chemistry system could detect current or past life.

MECA’s two microscopes do, however, have the resolution to detect bacteria–which would be life. Sources, however, say the microscopes have not detected bacteria.

The Phoenix scoop was successful in delivery of a soil/ice mixture to TEGA this week after the material stuck in the scoop on two tries. The analysis of that sample is under way. The sample contains about 1% ice and 99% soil.

As expected, the instrument immediately detected hydrogen and oxygen atoms indicating water. Its electricity load also increased initially, a positive sign that water ice was being melted by the system.

The fact TEGA is starting to process some ice samples “had champagne corks popping” here, says William Boynton TEGA principal investigator from the University of Arizona. “We have tasted the water and it tastes great,” he said.

Before launch, some website literature by the TEGA team indicated it possibly could find organic evidence of “past” life. Both Boynton and Peter Smith, who heads the mission now, say that is not the case, although TEGA organic data could start major new arguments about life. Read the rest of this entry »


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Categories : Science, space

Mauna Loa CO2 January to July trend goes negative first time in history

4 08 2008

UPDATE5: MLO responds with improvements to the CO2 data reporting

UPDATE4 August 4th 11:45PST the Mauna Loa graph (but not data) has changed, see this new post

Back on April 6th of this year I made an observation about the trend in the CO2 data from the Mauna Loa Observatory dropping and possibly “leveling off”.

For that I was roundly criticized by those “in the know” and given the full Bulldog treatment.

[ UPDATE: Lucia has an interesting take on such criticisms ]

Well, it’s happened again. With the release of the July data from Mauna Loa Observatory, a new twist has occurred; this time there’s been a first ever trend reversal of the monthly mean CO2 levels from January to July. Here is the familiar Mauna Loa graph:

Source data: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

In the NOAA graph above, note the drop in the first few months of 2008, and the slightly muted rebound afterwards. Clearly something changed and the uncharacteristic drop in CO2 levels has been recorded by the world’s premiere CO2 monitoring station.

By itself, that blip isn’t much news, as there have been similar blips in the past, such as in 2004. But where it really gets interesting and unique is when you compare the seasonal difference, between, January 2008 to July 2008 levels against the rest of the Mauna Loa CO2 going back to 1958.

First let’s look at this year and last year in a magnified portion of the Mauna Loa CO2 monthly mean data:

Source data via FTP: Mauna Loa CO2 monthly mean data

Note that the January 2007 to July 2007 Delta was a positive 1.41 PPM, but this year, the January 2008 to July 2008 Delta value was negative at -0.42.

Going back through the data to compare previous January to July values, it has become clear that this is a unique event in the history of the data set. A value lower in July than January has never happened before. Prior to 2008, there has always been a gain from January to July.  This is a 6 month “seasonal”period from January 30th to July 31st, when the end of month data is released.

UPDATE 2: to see how far off the recent trendline the July value is, see this scatterplot from Lucia. Lucia has an interesting take

Residual from OLSClick for larger.

Below is the data table with the January and July values highlighted for your inspection.

What this means I cannot say. It may be noise, it could be a fault in the data gathering or in the measurement instrumentation. It may be an effect of increased ocean CO2 solubility due to the La Nina and global cold snap we’ve been having the past few months. Or it may be related to the biosphere respiration changing in some way we don’t know about.

This may signal a change,  or this one time event may in fact be that, one time. It may not happen again next year, we simply don’t know. But, it is unique and thought provoking.

UPDATE: Paul Clark of Woodfortrees.org where you can interactively graph a variety of datasets, offered this plot of rate of change:

Click for interactive graph

And Dee Norris offered up this graph from the same graph generator comparing rate of changes against the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the UAH Satellite Temperature data set. It would seem that the ocean solubility could be the largest factor.

It would seem to be a regional effect, which is probably driven by La Nina in the Pacific. The global CO2 trend continues:

The global data above is only plotted to April 2008, so it will interesting to see what happens when the new data comes in.

Data table below:

Read the rest of this entry »


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Categories : Science, climate_change