Here’s a telltale sign: I’ve been turning off my AC at night and opening the windows. It’s cooler outside than inside, even if I run the AC nonstop. Standing in front of a window, it feels as cool (or cooler) as the air coming from the AC vent. (Very scientific of me, isn’t it? 62 degree air is quite cool. I be smart. I orta git me one of them there college educations like folks are always talking about.) I got chilly several times last night (July 15) with only two windows open in the entire house! Both windows in my bedroom were closed! This is Summer in the South? I’d best cut a little more wood to lay up for the coming winter…

Whatever side you are on here is the perspective on ice.

Sea ice is argued as an indicator of climate change, not sea level issues.

Glacial ice, either in Antarctica or Greenland can have a large affect on sea levels.

Ocean temperatures can have a smaller, but measureable affect on sea levels.

The impetus for my query began as an innocent conversation with someone who was…shall we say…enthusiastic about anthropogenically-caused climate change. He spoke at length about the melting sea ice and the implications for coastal cities throughout the world. I posed that same question to him, essentially, if the sea ice had suffered extensive melting already, then why wasn’t NYC underwater?

In response, he changed the subject with a rapidity that, if it had been a tennis match, I certainly would have dislocated my entire cervical vertibrae.

Thank you again, and to Mr. Watts as well, for this wonderfully informative…and fair and balanced…resource.

Sincerely,
Ralph Couey

I like studying things that change. It makes me curious as to why they change. Check the ozone over the western US. Getting thin. Earlier this year, it was mostly green colored (meaning there was more ozone). Now its yellow (meaning there is less ozone). Does that not make your curious side itch to find out why? It does mine.

Final discussion point: UV B light from the Sun creates this ozone. What if a significant decrease in UV B light from the Sun occurs? Might that change the amount of ozone being created? What if at the same time, cosmic rays hit the thinner ozone layer? It seems these two things might be a factor based on ozone measurements at the poles as well as globally. I am not saying this to prove a point. I am discussing this to open up a conversation about ozone and whether or not it is a factor in global climate.

Lets not split the dog hair over “lost” versus “forever lost”. That detracts from the discussion. Tell me what you know about ozone and how it varies. Tell me what you think the climate influences are related to thicker or thinner ozone. Stuff like that.

Finally, I think most people who post on this blog are aware of the basics of ozone. I like to assume that people are pretty darn smart. Otherwise we end up talking down to each other.

Thanks for your comment, which prompted me to delve into this a bit further.

It seems that measurements of the salt content of sea ice vary widely, depending on ice age, thickness, the salinity of the underlying sea and other factors but that, as one might expect, first year sea ice retains most brine inclusions. So the sea ice may not be exactly “freshwater ice”.

The above comes from a preprint of the paper by Noerdlinger and Brower which Skippy linked. Interestingly Skippy’s NSIDC link was dated 24 August 2005 whereas the N &B paper was published in June 2007 and their preprint references papers from 2006. Just a typo by NSIDC I guess!

N&B also note that their argument has not been considered in the mainstream
science before and that it has faced “some resistance”.

As you say the effect of their argument is not particularly significant, especially as the the majority of the 4cm rise come from the melting of Antarctic ice shelfs. Indeed, a later Aug 2007 paper by Jenkins & Holland (GRL Vol 34), which references N&B ( N& B also acknowledge J & H in their paper) estimates that the effect of total Arctic sea ice melt on sea level rises would be 2.1 – 3.1 mm!

So aren’t we back where we started? Arctic sea ice melt will not affect sea level in any meaningful way. (But, hey, scientists can join theologians on arguing how many…. can fit on the head of a …)

You said “And we are losing ozone (remember, cosmic rays eat up ozone). ”

Unless cosmic rays are going to crap ozone back out, it would be safe to assume that whatever ozone you say is “eaten up” will be lost forever. Perhaps you assumed everyone would know that ozone is also constantly being created. Gawd I hate it when people assume. :)

Record Low Temperature: year set 2008
Record Low Wind Chill Temp: year set 2008
Coldest Night on Record: year set 2008
Coldest Day on Record: year set 2004

Not showing up much in the Hadley CET data though….

W. Virginia had record early frosts in August in the blistering hot & dry summer of 1936.