I must say I’m a bit taken aback by your sarcasm.
If you don’t like ideas…then at least say so – diplomatically. Thank you.
Pierre Gosselin

REPLY: My apologies, it was late and my mood yesterday was a bit dour. Better today. Practically though, I just don’t have the time to pursue such a thing.

If these guys are living green, then I want to see how. Maybe we can all learn something from them.
I’m not saying this has to be the main thrust of your website. I’m just saying it could be a very entertaining and EYE-POPPING side feature once a week.

I think you’d make serious waves…especially with the duped followers of these charlatans. Eventually they’d get the message.

REPLY: Surely! I’ll just get funds from my massive travel budget, fly the world, and knock on doors. I’m sure they’ll let me take pictures! ;-) Seriously, no. I don’t have time for that sort of rubbish.

In my view this is an important argument. Can we believe the messengers of doom and gloom when we see they themsleves are leaving huge carbon craters?
I don’t see Al Gore walking barefoot like David Carradine in Kung Fu to put out his message.

Wish I was knowledgeable enough to contribute and I am grateful that you and commenters go the extra mile to be understood by the laity. This blog and its readers substantiate my commonsense and provides references and facts with which to debate my peers.

Thank you Anthony. Thank you one and all.

– David

REPLY: Certainly

But then again, both my blogs are not even a month old. But still, I envy you :)

REPLY: Well,there is a test for that, and here it is, follow this link.

If the AVG scanner was affecting WUWT significantly, we’d see similar jumps at other climate sites too. The other wordpress site has been flat while WUWT has grown. Realclimate.org and Climateaudit.org both have longer histories, more entries, and more linkage to other websites than mine due to their longer existence. They don’t show similar increases.

I wonder if the “crash party” by th AGW crowd on your Hansen poll had a significant effect? In any event I think it’s great that such an excellent and informative blog is getting such a wide readership…..and if the Hansen crowd helped then the irony is just delicious!!!

Why is it a SWAG rather than just a WAG? I used some statistical voodoo, which I’ll attempt to explain. My approach is to take the 1-year delta for 12 months of UAH daily data, averaged over the month, and correlate that with the 1-year delta for monthly UAH data and RSS data. This allows me to estimate UAH and RSS 1-year *DELTA* from UAH daily data. I then apply the estimated delta to last year’s temperature to get this year’s estimated temperature. Since UAH daily data for the last day of the previous month is available late evening of the 1st (Eastern Time), I can get the estimate out at that time.

The data available to me are…
1) The UAH daily temps at http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/data/amsu_daily_85N85S_chLT.r001.txt

2) The UAH monthly temps at http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/msu/t2lt/tltglhmam_5.2

3) The RSS monthly temps at ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/msu/monthly_time_series/rss_monthly_msu_amsu_channel_tlt_anomalies_land_and_ocean_v03_1.txt

I generated 12 rows of data of 1-year deltas, e.g.
1)* “Jan”
* Average of Jan 2008 UAH daily minus average of Jan 2007 UAH daily
* Jan 2008 UAH monthly minus Jan 2007 UAH monthly
* Jan 2008 RSS monthly minus Jan 2007 RSS monthly
etc, etc.
Note that for June onwards, I have to use 2007 values minus 2006 values, because 2008 values aren’t available yet.

To save yourself some work, select all the text *BELOW THE LINE* of asterisks below, save it to a .txt file, and import it as a text/CSV file. Cell A1 should read “Month”. Enter the following formulas…

Cell Formula
C15 =correl(C$2:C$13,$B$2:$B$13)
C16 =intercept(C$2:C$13,$B$2:$B$13)
C17 =slope(C$2:C$13,$B$2:$B$13)

Then extend-select C15:C17 and copy to D15:D17

C20 =C17*$B$20+C16
C21 =C19+C20

Then extend-select C20:C21 and copy to D20:D21

Correlation (C15 and D15) isn’t really necessary, but I’ve included it to see how well the linear fit works.

C19 and D19 are last year’s UAH and RSS anaomalies

B20 is the delta between this month’s UAH daily data and last month’s UAH daily data

C20 and D20 are ye olde “y = mx + b” equation, using the intercept and slope as calculated in rows 16 and 17.

Given last year’s value in row 19, and this year’s estimated delta in row 20,
adding them together gives this year’s estimated value in row 21.

************************************
“Month”,”UAH_daily”,”UAH”,”RSS”
“Jan”,-0.540927956989322,-0.64,-0.629
“Feb”,-0.34973313343329,-0.43,-0.4
“Mar”,-0.288862365591399,-0.314,-0.316
“Apr”,-0.149213793103456,-0.229,-0.236
“May”,-0.195764516128975,-0.379,-0.315
“Jun”,0.209333333333348,0.049,0.043
“Jul”,0.249645161290289,0.049,0.065
“Aug”,0.143665591397905,0.03,0.078
“Sep”,0.0130333333333397,-0.073,-0.08
“Oct”,-0.136212903225783,-0.11,-0.089
“Nov”,-0.0217666666666787,-0.079,-0.11
“Dec”,-0.106274790919997,-0.194,-0.218
,,,
“Correlation”,,,
“y-intercept”,,,
“slope”,,,
,,,
“Last year”,,0.203,0.28
“Deltas”,-0.1374,,
“Projected”,,,

It’s a well deserved reward for someone bringing such cool thought to an arena filled with such masses of hot air {AKA Gore & Hansen}.