2008/05 0.278
Writing from airport, more later- Anthony
MORE- here is the link for those that can’t find it:
Reference: HadCRUT3 anomaly data which can be found here
description of the HadCRUT3 data file columns is here
2008/01 0.053
2008/02 0.192
2008/03 0.430
2008/04 0.254
2008/05 0.278
May is surprisingly large, Mosh nailed it best with his “no change” first guess. But it appears there may be some missing data according to commenters. HadCRUT took quite a long time to get this number out.
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dang, I should have stayed with my guess of .25C
I was tempted to mess with that post, but I promised Anthony I would be good.
Uhhh, am I missing something here? The Hadley site updated the map here: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/
but the date table still has April as last entry:
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/
Well I bombed(0.17 to 0.22), but not as bad you, Anthony(0.10 to 0.17). Is it me or did they take a bit longer to get May out?
What am I missing here? I cleared my cache and still only got to April. I even ran…
wget http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3gl.txt
and still got only to April. Is there a newspage they make the announcement on?
Thanks Fred for the May map. WOW, is there a lot of missing data. And I thought GISS was bad. If the May number is from that, the current anomaly will be adjusted for sure when more data comes in.
You have your normal land data holes, but the SST data has a lot of missing data in the S. Hemisphere.
Here in Wallowa County, Oregon, it continues to be colder than a witch’s tit. Today, at 5:17 PM it is 9.9 degrees COLDER than last month, and 1.6 degrees colder than last year. The night temps continue to drop into the mid 30’s. In sum, it appears that day time temps are close yet still colder than last year, but it is the evening and night temps that are really diving. The snow is still on the mountains, and still plenty of it, but slowly melting.
I check every day and with but 3 exceptions from May 1, it has ALWAYS been colder than last year.
Brian D: Here’s GISSTEMP with 250km smoothing.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2008&month_last=5&sat=4&sst=1&type=anoms&mean_gen=05&year1=2008&year2=2008&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=250&pol=reg
Looks like the Hadley Centre covers more land area, but less sea. My guess is that Hadley’s avoiding the Southern Ocean since it’s been dropping like a brick since the late 90S.
http://i25.tinypic.com/2we9jli.jpg
That just gave me an idea. I’m off to check something.
Regards
Dear Pierre:
New metod for may 2008:
((T1+T2 +T3….+Tn)/n)*0 +0278= 0278
ok!
Defintely something funky over at Hadley. Their map shows the Pacific NW as warm. This May was anything but warm. June is even cooler.
I think Bob called the missing southern ocean Waldo’s hiding place.
Bob Tisdale
“GISSTEMP with 250km smoothing”
Here is a little local anomoly anomoly on that map:
How is it that the NW can have a heat anomoly? I went to the GISS web site, (sorry lost the reference). I tried a 1000 and 250km. No matter what, the NortWest is running warmer than normal. That is incorrect. Even my dumb little utility bill indicate that May was below normal. There is NO heat in the NW! We are freezing our behinds off around here, yet both GISS and HadCRUT show we are warmer than normal for May!
I pulled up historical weather for Seattle May 2008. We ran .5F below normal. for a high and .1F above for a low. That doesn’t make us warm.
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KSEA/2008/5/4/MonthlyHistory.html#calendar
The only reason it wasn’t much colder was three days of warm weather. One day of record heat. The rest of the month ran normal or below.
Bob! Thanks for many great comments!
When is HadCRUT data usually out versus this month?
I think it’s interesting to note that the HadCRUT website says ‘IT IS STILL WARMING’…’JANUARY 2008 MIGHT HAVE BEEN MISLEADING’.
Sounds like we need reminders in order to continue to believe a ‘theory’.
Hmm.
That’s a different stance than NCDC or NASA…which is like…”if you don’t like our data…we could care less. And we’ve noticed cooling in other data sets, but it’s all good. Our data is warming. La dee dah!”
Icecap ~ http://icecap.us/index.php ~ has an article by Joseph D’Aleo discussing the data from the four sources {GISS, HadCRUT, UAH, and RSS MSU} through May. Includes a graph with all four datasets compared at
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/ALL_SINCE_2002.jpg
Joseph makes a point I’d never thought of ~
UAH and RSS MSU satellite data uses a base period of 1979-1998. NASA uses the coldest period of the last century 1951 to 1980. Hadley uses 1961 to 1990 as a base period.
This explains why, for example, GISS is so much higher (showing a positive, though declining anomaly). If the current cooling trend persists, at some point even GISS should start showing a negative anomaly.
..why plot the anomaly and not just the average temp? shouldnt be that hard!
HadCrut and GISS results will merge in the future. Always look for HadCrut results to be very near GISS results.
When Gore takes his rightful position in the Obama Admin., Look for UAH and RSS results to be marginalised, and GISS and HadCrut to be pumped up.
You’ll see.
The sea ice data (lagging indicator) for May agree more with GISS and HadCrut.
There was more melting in May.
Here’s my recap for MAY 2008:
A. GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPS:
May: GISS +0.36 / HadCRUT +0.278: Average = +0.32 °C
April average= +0.33°C
Change: -0.01°C (cooler than April)
B. GLOBAL LOWER TROPOSHPERE TEMP:
2008/May UAH -0.17 °C / RSS -0.08: Average = – 0.12°C
April average: = +0.05°C
Change: -0.17°C (cooler than April)
C. ARCTIC SEA ICE ANOMALY:
April 30 2008: -0.7 million sq. km.
May 31 2008: -1.0 million sq. km.
Change: -0.3 million sq. km (melting ice in May – warmer)
D. ANTARCTIC SEA ICE ANOMALY:
April 30 2008: +1.0 million sq. km.
May 31 2008: +1.0 million sq. km.
Change: – 0.0 million sq km. (no change in May)
E. TOTAL SEA ICE ANOMALY:
April 30 2008: + 0.3 million sq. km.
May 31 2008: + 0.0 million sq. km.
Change: – 0.30 million sq. km. (more melting in May)
F. From one year ago:
Total sea ice anomaly May 31, 2007: -0.8 million sq km
Total sea ice anomaly May 31, 2008: 0.0 million sq km
(0.8 million sq km more sea ice than one year ago.
Again there appears to be almost a half of a degree Celsius temperature difference between satellite and surface temps.
Gentleman and Ladies,
I am quite sure that the falsification of public records and documents is very proper here in the colonies. However, I was under the distinct impression that these shenanigans were CRIMINAL in Great Britain. Perhaps the scalawags at Hadley, will follow hansen and his ilk into ignominy.
TUT TUT I say, Scotland Yard should be apprised of these goings on.
Great Britain is not Great anymore, I fear.
Folks,
The global summary data at CRU is always about a day behind the Hadley data – unfortunately that’s what I use so WoodForTrees isn’t up to date yet. However, sometime today, this should catch up:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/last:12/offset:-0.15/plot/gistemp/last:12/offset:-0.24/plot/uah/last:12/plot/rss/last:12
HADCRUT is often late in the month, I wouldn’t read anything into that.
On the subject of baselines, I’ve written about this here before and I’ve now written this up properly:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/notes#baselines
Cheers
Paul
actually if you check, my very first guess was giss minus .092 or
.36 – .092 or .268. pretty dang good. always stick with your first guess
It looks like the bats aren’t up to snuff on global warming. This time of year I normally have close to 800 to 1000 bats in my attic (there is 2150 sq ft of space available in the old ranch house attic). I counted last night, and less than 100 flew out of the attic vents. Bats don’t like cold. They stay south where night time temps are warmer. Cold also means no warm pools of water standing around for bugs to mate and have babies. And cold also means some bugs just don’t get up and fly around. I have a hunch that birth rates of those that are in the attic will be less as well, while mortality will be high. We also have large buffalo herds here (grown for meat) in the county. They are just now beginning to shed massive amounts of hide hair. I’ll be watching how soon that hair will start coming back. The thickness of winter coats usually precedes cold temps. Farmers use this sign to predict winter temps.
Does this all mean that when most of the people are fooled most of the time, they are dumber than animals?
The sea ice figures should not be taken as gosple because they are surface areas not volumn. The numbers given daily bounce around. One day they drop then they expand. I wonder how much of this is “melting” and how much is due to wind and sea currents?
The period used to measure the anomaly comes into question when looking at the Arctic ( Antarctic as well). Why did they use a period from 1979 to 2000? Why the cutoff? Why not keep including the following years? If they did, what would happen to the anomaly? Just looking at their graphs would tell you the anomaly would drop quite significantly.
Global levels of sea ice are the same as for the period from 1979 to 2000, the global anomaly is essentially zero.
Well done Anthony! You will be remembered for all posterity, when the truth outs
Bob Tisdale
GISS 250 km map shows southern SST’s close to the ice edge, Hadley is missing well above that, especially into the S. Pacific. But Hadley does have smaller holes than GISS on land. More adjustments forth coming as missing data gets filled in. They already adjusted previous months.
HadCRU
Jan 0.053 same
Feb 0.187 to 0.192
Mar 0.430 same
Apr 0.250 to 0.254
May 0.278 to ????
Probably why it took a little longer to release data.
re: Paul Clark (02:39:54)
Thanks for that link to your work on baselines. With the adjustment you made on them, it’s revealing how close all four datasets agree. Seeing that makes me comfortable in placing high confidence in UAH & RSS as presently constituted.
Using the May data, I now get no temperature change for the last 11 years for HadCrut3, RSS, and UAH.
http://reallyrealclimate.blogspot.com/2008/06/11-year-temperature-anomoly.html