Still hot in Tucson. “A man who is warm cannot understand a woman who is cold”. That is true in at least a couple of ways.

Anthony, I am sorry to inform you that I now want to believe in GW. Please be warm. I believe, I believe, I believe.

It is telling that we didn’t get run-off flooding. The higher elevation temps have been too cold to result in rapid spring snow melt of any degree. In the mid 70’s I was caught in a mud slide which was the result of warm spring downpours after heavy snow accumulations. We stayed in the house while the mud slid around us. You could hear the boulders in the mud hit the house with a thud then scrape along the outside as they crawled their way down the hill and around the house to the road. I’m glad all that snow is staying in the mountains.

It is a seriously negative leading indicator.

Many will try to spin it otherwise.

Ironically, the AGW fanatics are strange breed of optimist. They deny the fact that the warm times are the best of times, and, in the grand swathe of history, are rare. All the other times are cruel and dark.

Such is life, in this universe we are given. It is what it is.

The spring average, with the March figure again reduced a little to 0.58, is the lowest since 2001, as is the moving 12 month average.

But a comment for Pierre, who seemed surprised at the response:

Here’s a fun experiment you can try at home; go to a local meeting place, where people commonly have discussions. Wait for a discussion to start, then after a few minutes, chime in and tell those people that they shouldn’t say what they’re saying because it doesn’t interest you. Observe their responses.

Over time, those responses may be instructive.

Besides, anecdotes are data points, like thermometer records – more detailed but less precise, perhaps.

I’ll often tack on a local obs at the end of a more useful post. Not much server load, easy to skip over.

One form of anecdotal evidence are reports of things that haven’t happened in long-term memory and things that are happening like they used to back in the last negative PDO. These are good to use as examples and make a good balance when talking about harder evidence. You can talk and talk about negative PDOs and La Ninas until you turn blue (in the cold), but a good May snow storm will get locals’ attention. (We didn’t have on this year, but did blast away a lot of snowfall records.

– Ric

Oh, Concord NH set a record high today, 94 or 95. We won’t break tomorrow’s record, 98, set in 1933. Yes, the year with a Summer. A lot of times when the west coast is cool, we’re warm. Nothing exciting, and I’m almost embarrassed to note it. :-)

yes. actually, i don t expect this year to bring a new summer low.

but reading this “cooler may2 topics, shouldn t you guys expect this years summer ice to be above the long time averages?

hm, yes. looks like it was a bit late…

The N Hemi. is .4 M sq km BELOW the mean
The S Hemi is .8 M sq km ABOVE the mean

So currently the total sea ice is net +.4 M sq km above the mean.

that is true. though the problem with this view is, that the arctic sea ice is showing an obvious downward TREND. while the south has been fluctuating wildly for quite some time.

your argument boils down to this:
while my salery has been shring continously over the alst 10 years, i won the lottery this year, so it balances out….

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives/image_select.html

shows both
1. The current sea ice extent. Select the drop down button for “sea ice extent” …default setting
2. And what the average is for that SPECIFIC month. Select “extent anomalies”

So for N Hemisphere:
1. the May 08 extent is 13.2 M sq km
2. the May 08 mean is 13.6 M sq km

The N Hemi. is .4 M sq km BELOW the mean
The S Hemi is .8 M sq km ABOVE the mean

So currently the total sea ice is net +.4 M sq km above the mean.

This page image loads slowly so wait a few seconds. You can also the downtrend at the N Pole and uptrend at the S pole when you look at the “extent anomaly” setting.

you are mixing up the terms “sea ice area” and “sea ice extend”.

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png

this site does meassure “extend”. that is why the number is BIGGER than the one from cryosphere, which does meassure “area”.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg

i am not an ice expert, but here s my idea on this:

the massive amount of thin ice of this winter has left plenty of “extend” and little “area”.

REPLY:
…you are mixing up the terms “sea ice area” and “sea ice extend”.

I think you mean “sea ice extent”

REPLY: Yes, a huge El Nino that year.

See this image:

http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a001400/a001402/f08_sstanom_web.jpg

REPLY: AB, every time I put a trend line on a graph a fight breaks out. I prefer to let people see their own trends.

Yes, global SSTAs have been rising as the La Nina has weakened. However, the satellite readings UAH and RSS measure the temperature of the lower troposphere, which matches general trends at the surface. So even though the oceans have started warming recently, the air temperature has still been decreasing. Make sense?

There are large areas which are up to 5C above average which is quite unusual.

It won’t last long, of course, because the Gulf Stream off North America is up to 3C colder than average and will be coming your way shortly. That section of the Gulf Stream was 5C warmer than normal about two months ago and has now migrated its way up to Norway.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.6.5.2008.gif

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/anom_anim.html

The question is, which one of them is causing the cyclic error?
It is in fact not as small as you can think. If you look on the last 10 years there is a peak to peak change of up to 0.2C which I think is rather large.
The error seems to be very predictable since 10 years.

If looking on the yearly average, since the error seems to repeat in a 12 month cycle, the error is not that very large, up to 0.08 degrees.
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3049/2558758077_cba278dcf4_o.jpg

Another thought I have had about the satellite records is how we can have same global temperature as in 1999 but the heat are distrubuted differently.
For example look at the altitude 1km and compare with 1999.
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+001

It is still rather warm at the lowest part of tropossphere.
If we climb up a bit to 7.5km it is the oposite.
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+003
The temperature is lower at this altitude.

Are there any explanations why it is this way? Does it mean anything?
I have my own most non scientific theory what has happened.

The major way the atmosphere at 7.5 km can heat up is via heated air raising from the surface. The reason why it is cooler up there now is because less heated air is raising up to higher altitudes.
This might also be the reason why we still do not see as much cooling at the lowest part of troposphere. I would call that a positive feedback that prevents earth from cooling too fast.
I would guess there is the same negative feedback preventing earth from heating too fast when the temperature raises.

This is just my most unscientific reflection on the subject.
Maybe the answer is out there somewhere allready?