Comments on: Open thread

By: EOKenneth

EOKenneth — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 09:34:44 +0000

hi
http://abribob1.net

By: MattN

MattN — Wed, 14 May 2008 20:02:46 +0000

Polar bears officially listed at threatened: http://www.doi.gov/issues/polar_bears.html

The door has been kicked in….

By: Pamela Gray

Pamela Gray — Sun, 27 Apr 2008 15:12:27 +0000

Actually my main point is that when looking at rate of ice melt, it would be best to compare apples with apples. Look through the record for the same ice extent and graph the rise and fall for each build-up and each melt season. Finally indicate the timing of known natural conditions (solar cycle, ocean cycle, tilt, orbit, etc) on the graph. After you do that, you should then be able to tell if the rate of ice melt for any one data set on your graph is melting at a faster rate than any other comparable set of data on your graph. You might also find some kind of cycle tied to natural conditions. If there are no differences between comparable data sets, then the variable conditions (IE anthropogenic sudden or slow increased pollution) would not appear to be influencing build-up and melt as much as stable cyclical conditions (ocean cycle, solar cycle, tilt, orbit, ozone, etc). If there are unaccounted for differences between comparable data sets, then I would be looking for a change in variable conditions, such as CO2.

By: An Inquirer

An Inquirer — Sat, 26 Apr 2008 13:13:14 +0000

Pamela Gray, it has been my perception that skeptics generally have a better handle on the facts than alarmists, so I want to alert you that you may have an misconception of Northern Hemisphere ice. The current level is higher than last year, but likely NOT higher than for “many, many, many years. ” Pictures for 2004 and 2005 are not available, but it looks like 2003 had more ice at this point in time. It appears that we are higher than 2006 as well as 2007.

Can anybody point to me a graph of arctic ice that covers more than the last 12 months? This link has total global ice for 30 years: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg
but I do not see any series for the arctic ice.

MattN may be right that it is a burp, and technical issues have arisen occasionally in the Cyrosphere service which they appear to be diligent to correct.

MEANWHILE, I have been around for almost sixty years, and I have never seen snow this far south in Minnesota at this time of the year. And it is not an insignificant amount of snow!

By: Bob B

Bob B — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 23:08:06 +0000

I was just arguing with an AGW proponent on

http://www.solarcycle24.com

I had stated that the GISS record is crap and corrupted and there is a 5X divergecne in the GISS set from 1998 -2008 compared to others. Well the blogger Cthulhu generated this plot:

http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=34r96br&s=3

Which proved my point and shows the divergence of GISS temp set compared to all the others. He did a great job at looking a ten year period changes in temerature.
I congratulated him for weaning himself past the Tamino school of Cherry picking.

By: MattN

MattN — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 15:50:35 +0000

Inquirer:

Give it a week and see what the chart looks like. It may be just an observational “burp” by the software.

By: Pamela Gray

Pamela Gray — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 13:42:03 +0000

Inquirer

You might find this interesting

http://acsys.npolar.no/meetings/final/abstracts/posters/Session_3/poster_s3_096.pdf

By: Pamela Gray

Pamela Gray — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 13:19:19 +0000

So what you are saying is the extent of the ice shelf that hasn’t been there for many, many, many years is now melting it’s edge off at a very fast rate. An educated guess is that whenever the ice shelf freezes this far out, the edge rapidly melts away as the NH tilts to the sun, more so than when the ice shelf was not as extensive.

By: An Inquirer

An Inquirer — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 05:01:41 +0000

Pamela Gray and Matt N,
Thanks for your comments, :-) but the issue is not that spring brings declining ice cover, but rather the decline is faster than last year, and if the plummeting rate keeps up for a few more days, the ice level will be back to the level it was at last year at a similar time. Perhaps the cause for the rapid drop is that the the last million sq km did not freeze very thick — this last million sq km did not freeze at all last year. Perhaps that is why it is melting so fast now. But that certainly is only a speculative guess.
Yes, total global ice is much above normal. Only 6 times since satellites began measuring the sea ice has global ice been as extensive as it is now.

By: Pamela Gray

Pamela Gray — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 00:43:41 +0000

Well, well, well. Someone who is capable of making inroads into global warming models will be developing the piece of the puzzle related to solar influences on the middle atmosphere. Heavy reading but worth the time.

http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/8/4099/2008/acpd-8-4099-2008.pdf

By: Alex Llewelyn

Alex Llewelyn — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 17:23:23 +0000

Here’s the link:

http://environment.newscientist.com/article/mg19826533.900-arctic-currents-may-be-warming-the-world.html

(can this be merged?)

By: Alex Llewelyn

Alex Llewelyn — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 17:22:15 +0000

I saw an article in the New Scientist today (normally very pro AGW) that a change in Ocean currents could be causing a lot of the abnormal warming in the Arctic that has caused so much hullabaloo about melting ice caps. A cyclical ocean current appears to have warmed the arctic which in turn causes the whole Northern Hemisphere to warm up. The figure quoted in the article was 0.2 of the 0.5oC warming we’ve seen over the last 30 years in the NH. I’ll try to find a link if I can

By: Jeff Alberts

Jeff Alberts — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 14:42:08 +0000

Increased water vapor is the keystone of the IPCC positive feedback equation. If it does not form low level clouds, it goes to vapor and increases the greenhouse effect.

Which happens regardless of CO2 levels.

By: MattN

MattN — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 14:04:08 +0000

“Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice is dropping like a rock. What’s Up With That?”

Uhh. It’s spring in the NH. It does that. :shrug:

Meanwhile, expect absolutely no one to recognize that the SH ice coverage is almost 2 million km^2 above same time last year:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.south.jpg

Place your bets on shattering last year’s record. Double or nothing not one news source outside Fox says a peep….

By: Pamela Gray

Pamela Gray — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 13:44:51 +0000

re: NH sea ice? Could it be because it always does around this time of year? Afterall, the earth continues to cycle through it’s tilt, ignoring the noise of humans.