Wow, you were quite the advanced young tot!

http://attachments.climatepatrol.com/53/sstsa_080872.gif

If I read this correctly, we’re forecast to have La Nina all year. Yes/no?

If temperature records in the US go back to 1880, roughly 1 in 128 should be broken each year. For a given date, roughly 1 in (128 *365) or 1 in 46,720 should be broken for each date of the year, assuming no trends. With a warming trend, new highs should be somewhat more frequent than that, with a cooling trend, less frequent than that.

Here I’m guessing, but I suppose the number of new records with a constantly increasing temperature trend should be rougly proportional to
time / (1 – (T/SD))
where SD is the standard deviation in temperature
from year to year, say about 0.1 degrees, and
T is the linear trend fit, say 0.01 degrees per year.

In my example, if the world was warming up at 1C per century, and the standard deviation in temperature is 0.1 C per year, you’d expect 10/9
as many records as the logarithmic prediction.

With constantly decreasing temperatures, again
given the above figures, you’d get only 9/10 as many new highs as a strictly logarithmic projection-

Since the real climate shows increasing from 1880 to 1940, decreasing from 1940 to about 1970, and increasing again from about 1970 to 2000, fudge factor adustments for new records will be slightly more complex than that.

I second Kim’s eloquent assessment.

if google is not your friend then write again and I’ll hunt up the direct linakge
for you

http://climatesci.org/2008/02/14/important-summary-abstract-by-professor-richard-t-mcnider-of-the-university-of-alabama-at-huntsville/

Furthermore, over the past decade in the U.S., almost no new statewide monthly high records have been established.

http://hallofrecord.blogspot.com/2008/02/2007-monthly-us-high-temperature.html

True, some daily record high temperatures have been established, but many of them are tying old records set decades ago. NOAA takes away records previously established and credits the most recent year with the record in the event of ties.

A running average of record high – record low temperature records (for each calendar day or day in each month) for a selected set of stations would make an interesting metric with lots of data points. In the stock market this kind of metric is considered a measure of recent momentum up or down.

Any ideas where the data could be sourced from?

The arguments have been made that we should expect many more extreme high temperature records, but that hasn’t really been the case in the U.S. for the past decade. Therefore, the argument has been made that we should be experiencing higher low temperatures, but that hasn’t been happening for the past decade.

Now GW apologists are saying that bitterly cold weather with a lot of snow is the result of global warming.

It seems that if there is a contra-indicator to warming, it must be caused by warming… because it must be warming.

I suggest you go over to Climate Science and read what Roger Pielke has published recently… to wit: global warming should be indicated by an increased frequency of high temperature records. Cold is, indeed, a contra-indicator to warming.

And being right in that designated hot-spot (the sound of the F1 cars limbering up for tomorrow’s first race of the season at Albert Park filtering through the window) leaves much to be desired. Oh to be in England… or America…

Plus we can add our blog link: fatfinch

BTW, the current ‘record heatwave; in Australia is restricted to a smallish area of the south coast and is due to heavy rains across the interior.