“We have recently changed the way that the smoothed time series of data were calculated. Data for 2008 were being used in the smoothing process as if they represented an accurate esimate of the year as a whole. This is not the case and owing to the unusually cool global average temperature in January 2008, it looked as though smoothed global average temperatures had dropped markedly in recent years, which is misleading”.

Frankly, I’ve been a skeptic from the day I saw the Time magazine cover for “Earth, Planet of the Year”.

Twenty years have proven the skeptics correct and incorrect. Global warming is not really about climate change, and it’s not about environmentalism. It’s about social experimentation; about creating the perception of a crisis and emplacing conditions and restrictions on who loses and who receives it, by writ of law. It’s the same game that man has played throughout our just-above-the-monkeys existence.

Hopefully, the data you observe and the models you build will give us a much clearer picture of what the futures holds. God speed.

My point is first, you’re looking at 121 months, not 120, and second if changing1 number has that large an influence, I think your time frame is too short to have any meaning.

Lastly, I want to add I’m not a stat guy, so I don’t even know if the average of the anomalies has any significance anyway. I just used it to get a quick and dirty look at the impact of which set of data you use.

REPLY: thanks for reposting.

Correct. And the Antarctic sea ice extent is a full million square km ABOVE the 1979-2000 average, for this date.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

If either is relevant, both must be. The worldwide total anomaly is currently positive, not negative.

Somebody just made a comment here that I accidentally deleted. The delete and edit words links are right next to each other on the comment form, I went to hit edit, to add a reply, but missed the target, and unfortunately WP has no “are you sure” or recovery options for a deleted comment.

The comment was about the number of months in the 10 year trend. Whomever that was, feel free to repost. My sincere apology for the trouble.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGHleDxQ8fQ

It compares and illustrates the correlations of NINO3.4 data to TSI (Can’t Miss It!) and to standardized global temperature. It also illustrates the correlations of global temperature to the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) and to the Global SST ENSO Index. It’s almost twice as long as the first two, but I cover more topics.

I’ll retract the comment I made earlier on this thread about it being only a coincidence. The cumulative effect is sensitive to the base period of the raw data.

If I do another one, it’ll be an attempt to illustrate what’s happening and why the Running Total works. Other than that, I’ve run out of El Nino indices to play with.

If you’d like, I can email a copy of the spreadsheet so you can play with the data. Please advise.

Regards

You don’t understand.
The point is how ridiculous the warmingists are, when they speak in the ‘present tense’ of Arctic ice melting, on a minus 50 deg day.
Having experienced such conditions many times, I am well aware of them, including that ice does not melt on a minus 50 deg day. Perhaps you are a warmingist who still thinks that temperatures in the Arctic are warmer than normal when the facts are that it has been below normal consistently for nearly six months now. The new Arctic ice will not be melting anytime soon. Don’t buy any tickets for an Arctic cruise next summer as the cruise lines are not making plans to have their ships converted into ice breakers.

Train? What train? ROTFLMAO!! My wife is just over 5 feet — does that count?

I have almost the exact same background as you do in terms of education. I did well in high school chemistry and biology, math — not so much. When I moved out in the country a decade ago, (I’m in northeastern Indiana) I bought a decent telescope, but ended up using it more for birds and wildlife than for astronomy. I have a BS in Business Administration with an unintentional minor in history, simply because history has always fascinated me.

BTW, I have Largemouth Bass in my pond too, and we caught several of them through the ice. In the summer, the Bass are more fun to catch, particularly on a fly rod, but not as tasty to eat. The two species do compliment each other in a small pond (mine’s 1/2 acre, about 16 feet at the deepest point, fed primarily by my open loop geothermal system, as well as draining a watershed of around 6-7 acres. Interestinglly, I’m 63, and the last time I fished through the ice was as a teenager.

Jeff, I propose a contest to determine which one of us is the dumbest. And since you are so good at “fish” problems, I pose the following:

Well, I wouldn’t say “dumb”, lol. Just took different paths in life from those math types ;) I was more into history, did not bad in HS biology, was always good at geography. Astronomy always fascinated me too, until the math came into play…

My son-in-law and I went ice fishing on my pond a couple weeks ago and caught a couple dozen Bluegills. We threw back all the ones under 8″. How many did we keep? As Anthony says, simple multiplication, right?

Not enough information. What time did the train leave Chicago, and how many of the girls are under 5 feet tall?

As an aside, (and in keeping with the nature of this blog), you can’t imagine what a treat it was to fry up a bunch of freshly caught Bluegill in the middle of one of the coldest and snowiest winters in recent memory.

Never did any ice fishing, but did plenty of summertime pond fishing in the Blue Ridge Mountains of Norhwestern Virginia as a boy. I usually threw back the bluegill in favor of largemouth bass.