Comments on: Sun blank again

By: Jim Eagle Feather

Jim Eagle Feather — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 13:03:00 +0000

The other day I was reminded about what I learned in geology decades ago – for the last several hundred thousand years ice over a mile thick was typical for North America and Northern Europe. Short interglacial periods dotted that period, with periods of about 10,000 years of warmth be typical in the last 100,000 years. Our last Ice Age ended about 11 thousand years ago and so we are about 1000 years over due. The Mini Ice Age we saw several hundred years ago would be typical for the beginning phase of a new Ice Age. Obviously the sun has been going through long dim cycles for the last several hundred thousand years. Yet NASA and modern Science (perhaps in an effort to protect Wall Street and prevent panic in the streets) is trying very hard to pretend like this interglacial period will go on forever. Actually the only thing that MIGHT save us is a larger carbon footprint.

By: Jean Meeus

Jean Meeus — Thu, 06 Mar 2008 12:32:51 +0000

On the SOHO image of today, March 6, at 08:00 UT I notice at extreme right a very small sunspot. It is situated in a small lighter region of the sun’s surface. Being close to the sun’s equator, that small spot again belongs to sunspot cycle No.23. Maybe it is again a short-living spot. Anyway, being close to the sun’s western limb, it will soon disappear behind the limb.

By: MattN

MattN — Tue, 04 Mar 2008 19:43:56 +0000

According to http://www.solarcycle24.com, there was another VERY small sunspot yesterday (3/4) that disappeared so quickly, it didn’t even get a number.

This cycle is just sputtering….

By: SteveSadlov

SteveSadlov — Tue, 04 Mar 2008 18:50:35 +0000

I looked up Seven Tomorrows and the scenario name is actually “The Beginnings of Sorrow” (quite Biblical!). In that scenario, there is worsening climate and mass infrastructure failures. After a few years, steam locomotives are being used again, and the US is run by the Mafia. Etc.

By: The Carden Chronicles

The Carden Chronicles — Tue, 04 Mar 2008 07:17:27 +0000

End to Global Warming? Return of An Ice Age?

Last week, articles began to surface discussing how the US National Climatic Data Center was reporting that January’s temperature was 0.3F BELOW the average temperature from 1901-2000. Additionally, the Arctic sea ice, that the Global Warming Fana…

By: SteveSadlov

SteveSadlov — Mon, 03 Mar 2008 23:07:10 +0000

Hawken, not Hawkins.

By: SteveSadlov

SteveSadlov — Mon, 03 Mar 2008 23:06:14 +0000

Say what you will (and believe me, I have!) about Hawkins et al. That book “Seven Tomorrows” is still knocking around up there in me noggin’ ….

The scenario which I think would best describe things, should we incur another Maunder, is “The Beginning of Sorrows.”

By: kim

kim — Mon, 03 Mar 2008 14:51:44 +0000

That’s the irony, BC. An unanticipated long term cool-off is going to be disastrous, and not just for the poor and powerless(I like that one) of the world.
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By: Bruce Cobb

Bruce Cobb — Mon, 03 Mar 2008 14:00:57 +0000

“If the priests of the global warming cult really cared about humanity, they would be talking about the possibility of global cooling.”
That’s pretty much it in a nutshell. They have an agenda, and it ain’t about
science, or truth, and most certainly not about what is good for humanity. The AGW?AGCC propaganda machine will continue on, regardless of what the science says.

By: Bill in Vigo

Bill in Vigo — Sat, 01 Mar 2008 01:35:56 +0000

Max D. I do remember the late (Easter) freeze here in Alabama. We lost most of the fruit crop from the north 1/2 of the state. and then the drought went into the extreme phase and all the crops were lost to the tune of less than 1/3 of expected production which included our winter wheat crop.

Yes I agree just a little cooling isn’t a good thing.

Bill (another 2 cents)

By: Bob Tisdale

Bob Tisdale — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 22:28:29 +0000

Austin: Both ACRIM and PMOD are composites of satellite derived TSI readings. ACRIM stands for Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor. ACRIM data is available here: http://www.acrim.com/

PMOD stands for Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center. (You asked.) PMOD Data here: http://www.pmodwrc.ch/pmod.php?topic=tsi/composite/SolarConstant

The differences are discussed at both sites.

By: Otter

Otter — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 17:27:03 +0000

OT~ I am surprised one ‘john cross’ has not come by to dispute your figures on the various temperature charts, Anthony.

I do have a question related to this thread: I had read elsewhere the claim that the sun is already Two years past the point of the new cycle beginning. I am going to take it partially as that there is a delay from the first burst of new sunspots, as you have charted above… but they must be using somewhat different criteria for that assumption?

By: austin

austin — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 17:05:07 +0000

Bob,

What are the acronyms you use and the source for the data you presented?

Thanks!

By: Jim Arndt

Jim Arndt — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 16:50:24 +0000

Hi,

One way is to compare the number of spotless days to other cycles. If you correlate that number to other cycles you may be able to figure it out. It gives you a Rmax of about 62 like SC15 and SC13. I think it maybe a little higher. There is also the chance of a Grant Minima.

By: Evan Jones

Evan Jones — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 16:09:12 +0000

BT: Very interesting …

By: Stephen Richards

Stephen Richards — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 15:27:21 +0000

Anthony

I with you on sunspot 983. I don’t think it would have been counted in past records. It would not have been noted. Even with modern ’scopes you could barely recognise it as a spot.

REPLY: And, with a cloudy day or two back then, it would have been missed for sure with such a short lifespan. Next time one of these small spots occurs, maybe somebody can go try to resolve it with a small dime-store telescope and a piece of paper for projection? or maybe the pinhole method? It would be interesting to see if they show up.

By: Bob Tisdale

Bob Tisdale — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 14:04:20 +0000

I don’t believe I’ve seen current TSI values (As of Aug-07) Compared to TSI Values of the Maunder Minimum.

TSI Values As of 8/07:
PMOD: 1365.2
ACRIM: 1365.5

Maunder Minimum From Various Reconstructions:
Lean2000 (Without Background): Maunder Min = Approx 1365.6
Leif 2007: Maunder Min = Approx 1365.6
Wang 2005: Maunder Min = Approx 1365
Lean2000 (With Background): Maunder Min = Approx 1363.4

PMOD and ACRIM Data are Below the Maunder Minimum Values of Lean2000 (without Background) and Leif2007. PMOD is significantly lower.

When all this shakes out, it’ll be interesting what this does to Solar Climate Sensitivity estimates.

By: Max Door

Max Door — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 14:03:23 +0000

Bill in Vigo – Remember last year that winter hung on a little longer, we had a winter storm on Easter that severely damaged some of Kansas and Oklahoma’s wheat crop – well, today wheat is $11 (normally $4.5) a bushel and in short supply relative to what is normal. That was the result of just a small amount of unusual winter weather.

If the priests of the global warming cult really cared about humanity, they would be talking about the possibility of global cooling.

By: Stan Needham

Stan Needham — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 13:41:44 +0000

Anthony, your blog never ceases to amaze and fascinate me. Now if only you could teach me some math and physics and refresh my memory on the statistics I learned back in 1966. But, then, we didn’t have Excel back then — heck we didn’t even have pocket calculators. We had a study group that met almost every night in the library of my fraternity house to work on statistics problems. Only one guy had (and knew how to use) a slide rule, and if he was otherwise occupied, we figured square roots long hand. I’m sure some of your older readers can relate.

What’s funny is that I use Excel every day for accounting journals, and even for some columnar applications like a purchase order log. And I knew that you could create graphs and charts with it; it’s just not something I’ve ever had the occasion to do. I may have to take an advanced Excel course at our local regional campus just so I can follow along with some of your more accomplished readers. Or maybe I could get Kristen Byrnes to tutor me, heh.

(BTW, Kristen, I haven’t forgotten you. I’m still trying to get some points of contact in the Boy Scout community in Kansas to coordinate surveying the state of Kansas. The unusually cold and snowy winter has been an obstacle for getting people interesting in outdoor projects.)

One of the most interesting things I find about this whole issue of climate change is that it’s not happening in a vacuum. Time keeps marching on, and things happen that either prove certain people right or wrong. This solar cycle (or lack thereof) is a prime example. The more questions we answer, the more new questions emerge, which, I believe, is the way science is supposed to work. We already have 2 decades under our belt since this whole GW thing got rolling, and it’s already been a couple years since Al Gore said we’ve only got 10 years left to take meaningful action or we’re all doomed. If the next 8 years go as fast as the last 8, it won’t be long before his statement will be tossed on the ash heap of history as yet another hysterically ignorant statement from someone who didn’t know what he was talking about, but who, unfortunately, was able to affect the waste of millions or, perhaps, billions of dollars, much of which has gone into his own pocket.

As Bill in Vigo says; “just my 2 cents.

By: AGWscoffer

AGWscoffer — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 10:21:07 +0000

The worst thing we could do is let these climate bozos off the hook. Humiliation and embarassment, and the lessons learned from them, are part of healthy growing up.