[En Ingles por favor. Mi espanol (y italia) is muy poquito y muy mal. 8<) Robt]

Would you, please, to send me e-mail to contact
to you in more flexible way.
In fact, I worked with the same data, but use
more comprehensive stat.techniques.
Best regards,
Oleg Pokrovsky

What this guy is saying is essentially that LOD leads PDO by about 5 years and that TSI and LOD are driven by the same causes but neither TSI or LOD are interacting. Think of it as a bat hitting two balls at the same time, the balls correlate as in timing of movement but neither affects the other, they just have the same bat as the cause of the movement. Interesting hypothesis. What his claim is that LOD, i.e. the rotation speed of the earth is what influences the PDO via ocean currents if I understand it correctly. The site doesn’t directly say coriolis effect, however I believe that ocean currents are driven not only by winds and salinity but also by earth’s rotation like the wind patterns. http://abyss.uoregon.edu/~js/glossary/coriolis_effect.html

Now taking this LOD and comparing to your graphs above you may get the high R^2 value you are looking to highly correlate. LOD in milliseconds certaintly doesn’t have enough cummulative effect as far as the amount of energy from daylight but it might have enough as far as ocean and air currents are concerned. Can you establish what the LOD has been since 2000?

Not to knock the site I am posting on and that you enjoy reading, but I strongly encourage you to read more academic sources on the subject (reports from IPCC, NAS are good and introductory textbooks, perhaps from David Archer, or if you have a solid calculus/physics background, Ray Pierrehumberts), because there are a lot of mistakes in the analysis done here.

I have to mention I play poker with a former governor who was touting the Carbon exchange as the greatest economic institution we will found. This scared the hell out of me and makes me ask who benefits. Who collects the juice? His claim is a ten degree increase in global temps and flooding displacing 10m people. Again, how much have the worlds oceans receded since the 3rd century. Obviously by his logic there should have been substantially more landmass.

Again not a scientist, just curious about the debate.

You say: “That human activity could affect climate is an extraordinary claim that requires extraordinary validation”
I think it’s plausible in terms of human perception. There is an interesting post about that in Donner’s Maribo, about the earth as man’s domain vs the sky as god’s domain:

simondonner.blogspot.com/2008/02/tom-delay-and-believing-in-climate.html

OTOH science cares only about measurable inputs: GHG emissions from fossil fuels (btw there is an erratum in your figure, the 22 billions tonnes are CO2 and correspond to 6 GT of carbon), land use change, livestock,…, and that makes the claim less extraordinary, but only in science and, if the “extraordinary claim” feeling is pervasive, that can lead to some cognitive dissonance even among scientists and other “educated” people.

Best

Yves

As an analogy consider an airplane on a certain compass course. The fluctations in its course correlate very closely to the pilot’s actions on the stick. More subtle and less detectable, though, there’s a gentle but persistent South Westerly breeze. The correlation between course and this breeze don’t correlate nearly as well as do the pilot’s actions and course. Nonetheless, you ignore that breeze, you could end up miles and miles off course from where you thought you’d be.

That human activity could affect climate is an extraordinary claim that requires extraordinary validation. At the same time, however, the claim that huamns can dump 22 billion tons of carbon into the atmosphere every year and this has no effect is even more extraordinary a claim.