Comments on: Helio, La Niña, and bad winters, awww nuts!!

By: Steve Sadlov

Steve Sadlov — Tue, 13 Nov 2007 22:24:04 +0000

Just a final clarifying comment. California has two principle species of Oak. Coast Live Oaks (evergreens with waxy, holly like leaves) and Black Oaks (deciduous, with small semi lobate leaves). There are a number of more minor species such as Pin Oaks, Cork Oaks and other “mediterranean” evergreen forms. So far as I know, Black Oaks are the only deciduous species. The evergreen types are mostly associated with near coastal areas but can be found as far inland, in lower densities, as far as the Sierra foothills and the inner Transverse Ranges. The evergreen forms typically experience year round growth, with a late winter / early spring maximum. Some leaf drop may occur in heat – long warm spells may trigger temporary dormancy. I would reckon that the oaks in Bidwell park are mostly Black Oaks, with perhaps some non native species as well. Anthony could confirm or clarify this.

By: Evan Jones

Evan Jones — Fri, 02 Nov 2007 17:58:14 +0000

I have to admit you’re right, there. Central Park squirrels are run of the mill, but Riverside Park squirrels are huge, sleek, slow, lazy, and anything but shy.

In Riverside Park, there is an upper and lower park separated by a miles-long 3′ high stone wall with a drop of 20′ on theother side. Treetops come over the wall on the lower side nd the squirrels use it as a Grand Highway, jumping from treetop to the wall, running along it, then leaping to the crown of neighboring trees.

Cloumbia University campus used to have a particularly huge squirrel off the main quads that we used to feed. A few months after I graduated, I went back to “visit” him, and what did I find. No squirrel and a big squirrel trap under its favorite tree!

Damned ecologists! They love every beastie I couldn’t care less about, but they are hell-bent to exterminate MY squirrels, MY crows, and MY pigeons.

Yes, I know pigeons have always had a bad rep, but they have made a huge comeback–they used to be nearly all the same, sirty, furtive, skinny, unhealthy, and ubiquitously gray. Backi in 1965. But now they are sleek, healthy, plump, vibrantly healthy, with amazingly variegated, colorful patterns (evolution via natural selection in action). Rich chocolate browns, lovely brick-reds, pastel yellow sandstone, and everything in between.

And NOW they are talking about wiping them out. NOW!

There just isn’t any creature I actually like that these dang “preservationists” don’t want to lay a pogrom on.

By: Stan Needham

Stan Needham — Fri, 02 Nov 2007 12:26:11 +0000

You’re probably right, Evan, but I’ll bet our leaner and meaner squirrels can whup your fat and lazy squirrels by the same ratio.

By: Evan Jones

Evan Jones — Fri, 02 Nov 2007 06:40:33 +0000

“We have mostly Red and White Oaks in our woods. ”

Oh, yeah? Well I bet you our MANLY Empire State oaks can thrash your measly winos and affected SF limp-limbed ninnies two Falls out of three! (SIR!)

By: Stan Needham

Stan Needham — Thu, 01 Nov 2007 21:31:28 +0000

We have mostly Red and White Oaks in our woods. It’s a pretty average acorn crop this year, compared to 2005 when the ground was covered. The Hickory nut crop this year is above average.

Something else I’m seeing that I haven’t seen in close to ten years are 3 bird species: Purple Finches, Red-Breasted Nuthatches and Pine Siskins. It’ll be interesting to see whether this winter turns out to be unusual in any way.

By: Evan Jones

Evan Jones — Thu, 01 Nov 2007 13:00:24 +0000

“Our oaks are a lot more affected”

“very different from Eastern oaks and their behavior.”

Well, WE have MIGHTY oaks out HERE.

By: SteveSadlov

SteveSadlov — Wed, 31 Oct 2007 20:25:50 +0000

Things are different in California. Our oaks are a lot more affected by sun and other leading indicators of the coming winter. The reason? Our annual dry season. If oaks do not produce seeds with appropriate timing vs the expected spring conditions and expected length of the summer dry, then they fail. Very, very different from Eastern oaks and their behavior.

By: Jeremy Miller

Jeremy Miller — Wed, 31 Oct 2007 04:22:04 +0000

Adding to Gary’s comment about the oaks being on a 2-4 year cycle of having a “bumper crop” year, one theory for this is that the predator population (such as squirrels) stabilizes based on an “average” acorn year. Thus, the occasional “mast year” allows the trees to overwhelm the existing predator population with more than they can eat, thus increasing the chance of more acorns sprouting into trees.

Jeremy

By: Evan Jones

Evan Jones — Mon, 29 Oct 2007 18:10:20 +0000

“Poor Tom’s a-cold.”

By: SteveSadlov

SteveSadlov — Mon, 29 Oct 2007 17:43:21 +0000

Coast live oaks are having a bumper crop this year. We are going to get clobbered.

By: CO2Breath

CO2Breath — Sun, 28 Oct 2007 15:29:13 +0000

RE: Winter in MT.

I hedged my bets slightly this year by getting a season pass in both MT and ID. Here’s hoping for big snows at one or the other or both.

By: VirgilM

VirgilM — Sun, 28 Oct 2007 04:53:10 +0000

As a Meteorologist, anytime I needed to be humbled, I would take a stab at predicting how the next winter in Montana would go. There are always elements that you need for such a forecast that are only predictable at most two weeks in advance. The official NOAA outlook for this winter is EC (Equal Chances) which is code for “we don’t have enough skill in this scenario to make a forecast in that region”. I looked at the history of La Nina winters in Montana and half were mild and dry and the other half were cold and wet. I can understand why CPC went with EC given the history. It all hinges on how the jet stream over the pacific establishes itself this winter. Accuweather seems to think that a zonal jet pattern will dominate which would mean mild and dry winter for Montana. This is also the tendency with a moderate to strong La Nina. Of course, there is always an exception to the rule and it happens every year.

By: Evan Jones

Evan Jones — Sun, 28 Oct 2007 04:32:44 +0000

See, I was right. Climate change IS due to the wickedness of children!

El Nino y La Nina . . .

Son muy mechant!

By: George M

George M — Sun, 28 Oct 2007 03:15:13 +0000

We have several hundred Live Oak treees on our two acres here in South Texas. Last year was classified as a drought, and there were few to no acorns, and the foliage looked gray and pitiful. Then the rains started in the winter and continued through the spring into the summer. We are at about 2X average rainfall so far. The live oak foliage, which overwinters and is replaced in the spring, looks green and full, but there was little pollen due to the rain. However, this year’s acorn production is on a par with a bumper crop I recall one year in the late 1980s. Unfortunately, I made no record of exactly which year so I can’t accurately correlate the weather that year.

Pecan crops are notoriously biennial (I think that is the correct word for every two years), with a poor one last year, and early reports of a good crop this year. Except for a very bad drought, the crop rarely correlates well with any obvious weather conditions.

By: M. Jeff

M. Jeff — Sun, 28 Oct 2007 02:48:27 +0000

Local observation from Texas: The live oaks at my home had their greatest acorn production following the hot dry summer of 2006. This year, after a much cooler and unusually wet summer, the acorn production is greatly reduced. Pollination as mentioned by Chris Manuell (13:20:52) and Gary (14:02:09) might be part of the explanation for the previous large crop. But that crop was such an extremely large variation from the norm that I’m inclined to believe that survival mode was involved.

By: Robert Coté

Robert Coté — Sat, 27 Oct 2007 21:11:52 +0000

But in local news Southern California is being told to brace for another record low precipitation season due to the very same La Niña conditions. All bad things equal AGW.

By: Gary

Gary — Sat, 27 Oct 2007 21:02:09 +0000

I wouldn’t read that much into the acorn abundance for several reasons. Oaks tend to produce acorn crops of varying sizes from year-to-year with large crops every 2-4 years as part of a natural biological cycle. Production also is dependent on successful pollenation in the previous spring. If it was poor due to wet weather for example, then the crop will be below normal; if conditions were optimal, then just the opposite is possible. There’s a lot of adaptability in organisms allowing them to handle environmental changes, survive, and even flourish. They’re great integrators of the physical factors affecting them — which makes it unlikely they are the best recorders of the pure signal of these factors. Producing lots of acorns definitely is a survival strategy as the reality is that most of these will not survive to maturity. Only a few will make it to fertile soil, avoid being eaten, out-compete rivals, survive storms and fire and a thousand other challenges. It’s hard to see where this forecasts one cold wet winter though.

Here in the Northeast we’ve had an unusually long, warm, dry fall season. The Woolybear catepillars are “predicting” a long cold winter (wide middle brown band bounded on both ends by short black bands). Seems they’re already wrong.

By: Philip_B

Philip_B — Sat, 27 Oct 2007 20:26:34 +0000

Here in Perth, Western Australia our winter has been unusually long, cold and wet. Yesterday, the high temp was 16C. I6C would be considered a cold day in the middle of winter (July). It’s very unusual at the end of October.

Also, as someone at Climate Audit has observed about US west coast weather, the forecasts have underestimated how cold and wet it would be over the last few days. This may well indicate a climate shift from the norms/averages built into the models.

By: Chris Manuell

Chris Manuell — Sat, 27 Oct 2007 20:20:52 +0000

Although I agree with most things I see on the site Michael, I’m not so sure about the theory on the Acorns.
We also have a belief in England that a lot of Holly berries mean a hard winter. but generally when a tree produces a lot of fruit it is for one of two reasons, the main one being that there was good warm dry weather during the flowering period. This allows the insects to pollinate the flowers and the pollen to germinate and fertilize the seeds.
The other reason can be particularly in fruit trees that they are under undue stress, the tree seems to have a mechanism to procreate if it is going to die.
But this tends to be on isolated trees rather than all of them. So I think in this case it’s more likely to be the former, it is a history of what has happened rather than a prediction of the future.

By: Bishop Hill

Bishop Hill — Sat, 27 Oct 2007 18:17:40 +0000

Similar evidence from the UK – flocks of siskins arriving from Eastern Europe and early arrival of pinkfoot geese from Greenland.