Comments on: Arctic Sea ice loss – “it’s the wind” says NASA http://wattsupwiththat.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/ Commentary on puzzling things in life, nature, science, weather, climate change, technology, and recent news by Anthony Watts Sat, 21 Nov 2009 15:08:47 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: Survey for Climate Change Sceptics http://wattsupwiththat.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-39620 Survey for Climate Change Sceptics Tue, 16 Sep 2008 00:36:32 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-39620 [...] Daily) Under Icy Arctic Waters, A Fiery, Unexpected Find (The New York Times) Arctic Winds: Arctic Sea ice loss – "it’s the wind" says NASA (Anthony Watts, Meteorologist) Scary Arctic Ice Loss? Blame the Wind (Science) Winds of Change [...]

]]> By: The North Pole could melt this year - Page 15 - US Message Board http://wattsupwiththat.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-23498 The North Pole could melt this year - Page 15 - US Message Board Mon, 07 Jul 2008 06:50:57 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-23498 [...] enough to conclude much upon, especially when there is clear evidence of a larger period cycle. Arctic Sea ice loss - “it’s the wind” says NASA Watts Up With That? __________________ Be thankful we're not getting all the government we're paying for. Will Rogers [...] [...] enough to conclude much upon, especially when there is clear evidence of a larger period cycle. Arctic Sea ice loss – “it’s the wind” says NASA Watts Up With That? __________________ Be thankful we’re not getting all the government we’re paying for. Will Rogers [...]

]]> By: Ralph S http://wattsupwiththat.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-13620 Ralph S Tue, 06 May 2008 00:07:47 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-13620 For those who don't know, "Tamino" [not his real name] is a troll. He posts on other sites, in the same manner, as well. Tamino's M.O. is to throw out an allegation, then skedaddle. Whenever a neutral, moderated debate is proposed, Tamino puts his tail between his legs and runs -- just like Hansen, Mann, Halpern and Gore. And that is the problem with the repeatedly falsified AGW hypothesis: those purveying anthropogenic global warming as a proven fact are not willing to defend their [falsified] hypothesis in a public forum. That tells you all you need to know about their confidence in AGW. For those who don’t know, “Tamino” [not his real name] is a troll. He posts on other sites, in the same manner, as well. Tamino’s M.O. is to throw out an allegation, then skedaddle. Whenever a neutral, moderated debate is proposed, Tamino puts his tail between his legs and runs — just like Hansen, Mann, Halpern and Gore. And that is the problem with the repeatedly falsified AGW hypothesis: those purveying anthropogenic global warming as a proven fact are not willing to defend their [falsified] hypothesis in a public forum.

That tells you all you need to know about their confidence in AGW.

]]> By: Arctic sea ice back to it’s previous level, bears safe; film at 11 « Watts Up With That? http://wattsupwiththat.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-4985 Arctic sea ice back to it’s previous level, bears safe; film at 11 « Watts Up With That? Sun, 03 Feb 2008 19:19:42 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-4985 [...] there has been a slight reduction in sea ice,  NASA indicates in a press release in October 2007 that the main component of change is wind driven flow patterns, not air temperature [...] [...] there has been a slight reduction in sea ice,  NASA indicates in a press release in October 2007 that the main component of change is wind driven flow patterns, not air temperature [...]

]]> By: Evan Jones http://wattsupwiththat.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-2235 Evan Jones Fri, 26 Oct 2007 05:03:52 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-2235 The wind? Not the Erl-King? The wind? Not the Erl-King?

]]> By: Dan Ottenbreit http://wattsupwiththat.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-2023 Dan Ottenbreit Sun, 14 Oct 2007 20:22:14 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-2023 The idea that winds are causing the reduced surface area makes sense to me. I live just north of Anchorage, Alaska and have, as part of my job, dealt with maintaining ocean docks. Since sea ice can do substantial damage to docks and affects the ships calling there I have kept a fairly close watch on Cook Inlet ice for the last 12 years. Last winter's Cook Inlet sea ice was some of the worst (i.e. thickest and most detrimental to shipping) that I have seen during this time period. Additionally Anchorage and other regions of Alaska experienced two of the coldest Novembers and Marches on record last winter. This seems terribly incongruous with sea ice extents being the least ever observed. One typical pattern of sea ice in the inlet is that winds push it to one side of the inlet or the other. Ship crews have reported that this phenomena has opened large channels for ship traffic (and likely reduced the overall area covered by ice as there are often large voids in the ice sheet). The idea that winds are causing the reduced surface area makes sense to me. I live just north of Anchorage, Alaska and have, as part of my job, dealt with maintaining ocean docks. Since sea ice can do substantial damage to docks and affects the ships calling there I have kept a fairly close watch on Cook Inlet ice for the last 12 years. Last winter’s Cook Inlet sea ice was some of the worst (i.e. thickest and most detrimental to shipping) that I have seen during this time period. Additionally Anchorage and other regions of Alaska experienced two of the coldest Novembers and Marches on record last winter. This seems terribly incongruous with sea ice extents being the least ever observed. One typical pattern of sea ice in the inlet is that winds push it to one side of the inlet or the other. Ship crews have reported that this phenomena has opened large channels for ship traffic (and likely reduced the overall area covered by ice as there are often large voids in the ice sheet).

]]> By: Evan Jones http://wattsupwiththat.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-1811 Evan Jones Sat, 06 Oct 2007 04:08:09 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-1811 If particulates are the problem then we are damn lucky SOBs. It's the cheapest solution and a vast cleanup is going to happen anyway without legislation as China, India, etc., move from dirty superindustrial to clean postindustrial societies. (Besides, primitive agricultural societies are always the hardest of all on the land. Any historian knows that.) If particulates are the problem then we are damn lucky SOBs. It’s the cheapest solution and a vast cleanup is going to happen anyway without legislation as China, India, etc., move from dirty superindustrial to clean postindustrial societies. (Besides, primitive agricultural societies are always the hardest of all on the land. Any historian knows that.)

]]> By: SteveSadlov http://wattsupwiththat.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-1802 SteveSadlov Sat, 06 Oct 2007 00:26:58 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-1802 The arctic responds more to ocean processes, the antarctic to a combination of land processes. Both places are a mixture of such process influeneces, but these are the dominant ones. From 1979 to quite recently, the Pacific spent a lot of time with higher than normal SSTs over significant areas, due to a positive PDO phase. The Atlantic was warm during the 90s and early 00s. The global system of ocean currents move heat around. It is not inconceivable that a good chunk of such heat contributed to the great melt back of this past summer in the East Siberian and Chukchi Seas. Plus, the winds, as duly noted. Now that the Pacific is drastically falling in temperature (due to La Nina and possible flip to negative PDO phase) and the Atlantic is a bit cooler as well, it will be interesting to see if there is an impact in the Arctic on some sort of delayed basis. The arctic responds more to ocean processes, the antarctic to a combination of land processes. Both places are a mixture of such process influeneces, but these are the dominant ones.

From 1979 to quite recently, the Pacific spent a lot of time with higher than normal SSTs over significant areas, due to a positive PDO phase. The Atlantic was warm during the 90s and early 00s. The global system of ocean currents move heat around. It is not inconceivable that a good chunk of such heat contributed to the great melt back of this past summer in the East Siberian and Chukchi Seas. Plus, the winds, as duly noted. Now that the Pacific is drastically falling in temperature (due to La Nina and possible flip to negative PDO phase) and the Atlantic is a bit cooler as well, it will be interesting to see if there is an impact in the Arctic on some sort of delayed basis.

]]> By: John H http://wattsupwiththat.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-1801 John H Sat, 06 Oct 2007 00:21:48 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-1801 This report is from NASA-JPL (CalTech), not NASA-GISS. I'm starting to see a lot of differences in the work coming out of the climate research from these two institutions. This report is from NASA-JPL (CalTech), not NASA-GISS. I’m starting to see a lot of differences in the work coming out of the climate research from these two institutions.

]]> By: NASA Releases Report Explaining the Melting Arctic » Constitutionally Right http://wattsupwiththat.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-1790 NASA Releases Report Explaining the Melting Arctic » Constitutionally Right Fri, 05 Oct 2007 20:03:36 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-1790 [...] Anthony Watts is even reporting that although the arctic ice is diminishing, the Antarctic is growing to record levels, currently 16 million square kilometers. [...] [...] Anthony Watts is even reporting that although the arctic ice is diminishing, the Antarctic is growing to record levels, currently 16 million square kilometers. [...]

]]> By: Stan Needham http://wattsupwiththat.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-1785 Stan Needham Fri, 05 Oct 2007 16:28:18 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-1785 Morgan, And now I see the point you were trying to make. The global temperature dropped precipitously following the <a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=4952" rel="nofollow">Mt. Pinatubo erruption in 1991</a> because of the phenomenon you cite. <blockquote>Because they scatter and absorb incoming sunlight, aerosol particles exert a cooling effect on the Earth’s surface. The Pinatubo eruption increased aerosol optical depth in the stratosphere by a factor of 10 to 100 times normal levels measured prior to the eruption. (“Aerosol optical depth†is a measure of how much light airborne particles prevent from passing through a column of atmosphere.) Consequently, over the next 15 months, scientists measured a drop in the average global temperature of about 1 degree F (0.6 degrees C).</blockquote> Morgan,

And now I see the point you were trying to make. The global temperature dropped precipitously following the Mt. Pinatubo erruption in 1991 because of the phenomenon you cite.

Because they scatter and absorb incoming sunlight, aerosol particles exert a cooling effect on the Earth’s surface. The Pinatubo eruption increased aerosol optical depth in the stratosphere by a factor of 10 to 100 times normal levels measured prior to the eruption. (“Aerosol optical depth†is a measure of how much light airborne particles prevent from passing through a column of atmosphere.) Consequently, over the next 15 months, scientists measured a drop in the average global temperature of about 1 degree F (0.6 degrees C).

]]> By: morgan http://wattsupwiththat.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-1781 morgan Fri, 05 Oct 2007 14:06:51 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-1781 stan- i can see how that might work if black particulates were laid on the ice. i was thinking more in terms of aerosolized particulates from fuels like coal that increase opacity in the atmosphere and block solar rays along the lines of the arguments made that pollution is masking the full extent of CO2 based AGW. would be tricky to net those out, but i now see the point you are making. thanks. stan-

i can see how that might work if black particulates were laid on the ice. i was thinking more in terms of aerosolized particulates from fuels like coal that increase opacity in the atmosphere and block solar rays along the lines of the arguments made that pollution is masking the full extent of CO2 based AGW. would be tricky to net those out, but i now see the point you are making. thanks.

]]> By: Steve Moore http://wattsupwiththat.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-1767 Steve Moore Thu, 04 Oct 2007 22:01:29 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-1767 The main difference between the NH and SH is the land/ocean ratio. The amount of land surface area in the NH certainly explains the population imbalance. I suspect the difference in ocean volume might explain a lot of the temperature difference. The main difference between the NH and SH is the land/ocean ratio.
The amount of land surface area in the NH certainly explains the population imbalance.
I suspect the difference in ocean volume might explain a lot of the temperature difference.

]]> By: Philip_B http://wattsupwiththat.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-1766 Philip_B Thu, 04 Oct 2007 21:57:41 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-1766 Taking the average temperature of x locations, finding an effect and then invoking a global cause is a serious error of logic. The cause could just as well be a bunch of local effects. If there is a global process at work, i.e. CO2, then we should find a clear signal at pristine locations, i.e. locations remote from any human 'local' influence. IMO almost all the pristine locations on earth are in the SH and most are in the Southern Ocean or Antarctica. I have yet to see a pristine SH location with a 20th C warming trend. BTW, an interesting outcome of Anthony's site survey would be a Pristine Index, a measure of how remote a site is from local human influences, including and especially land use changes. Taking the average temperature of x locations, finding an effect and then invoking a global cause is a serious error of logic. The cause could just as well be a bunch of local effects.

If there is a global process at work, i.e. CO2, then we should find a clear signal at pristine locations, i.e. locations remote from any human ‘local’ influence. IMO almost all the pristine locations on earth are in the SH and most are in the Southern Ocean or Antarctica. I have yet to see a pristine SH location with a 20th C warming trend.

BTW, an interesting outcome of Anthony’s site survey would be a Pristine Index, a measure of how remote a site is from local human influences, including and especially land use changes.

]]> By: Michael Jankowski http://wattsupwiththat.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-1765 Michael Jankowski Thu, 04 Oct 2007 20:00:49 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-1765 Morgan, You're right - CO2 shouldn't affect the NH any more than the SH. That's one of Phillips' points. What he's getting at with population is this... A Hansen co-authored paper from 2005 http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NasaNews/2005/2005032318608.html And another paper in 207 here http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/08/10/tech/main3154858.shtml In addition to the difference in development and industrial progression between the NH and SH, coupled with the population difference between the NH and SH that drives industry and energy use, would be expected to cause more warming and ice melt in the NH. Soot (as opposed to CO2) is not well-mixed and not global. Morgan,

You’re right – CO2 shouldn’t affect the NH any more than the SH. That’s one of Phillips’ points. What he’s getting at with population is this…

A Hansen co-authored paper from 2005
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NasaNews/2005/2005032318608.html

And another paper in 207 here
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/08/10/tech/main3154858.shtml

In addition to the difference in development and industrial progression between the NH and SH, coupled with the population difference between the NH and SH that drives industry and energy use, would be expected to cause more warming and ice melt in the NH. Soot (as opposed to CO2) is not well-mixed and not global.

]]> By: henry http://wattsupwiththat.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-1764 henry Thu, 04 Oct 2007 19:18:41 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-1764 People are quick to jump on the sea ice MINIMUMS, but not so quick to mention the sea ice MAXIMUMS. Watch the following NASA animation: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003300/a003370/SeaIceMaxWdates320x240.mpg Look at the following data chart, paying attention to the ANNUAL (average) values. Seems to recover quite nicely each winter. http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/SEAICE/timeseries.1870-2007 So not only is the melting SEASONAL, its REGIONAL. (NH vs SH) People are quick to jump on the sea ice MINIMUMS, but not so quick to mention the sea ice MAXIMUMS.

Watch the following NASA animation:

http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003300/a003370/SeaIceMaxWdates320×240.mpg

Look at the following data chart, paying attention to the ANNUAL (average) values. Seems to recover quite nicely each winter.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/SEAICE/timeseries.1870-2007

So not only is the melting SEASONAL, its REGIONAL. (NH vs SH)

]]> By: Stan Needham http://wattsupwiththat.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-1763 Stan Needham Thu, 04 Oct 2007 18:34:01 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-1763 <i>particulates tend to have a cooling effect on surface temperature, no?</i> No. Back in the 70's some scientists, worried about global cooling, even suggested finding a way to blanket the artic region with soot to promote melting. Probably a good thing they didn't succeed. particulates tend to have a cooling effect on surface temperature, no?

No. Back in the 70’s some scientists, worried about global cooling, even suggested finding a way to blanket the artic region with soot to promote melting. Probably a good thing they didn’t succeed.

]]> By: morgan http://wattsupwiththat.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-1762 morgan Thu, 04 Oct 2007 17:34:38 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-1762 sorry, forgot to add - particulates tend to have a cooling effect on surface temperature, no? sorry, forgot to add – particulates tend to have a cooling effect on surface temperature, no?

]]> By: morgan http://wattsupwiththat.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-1761 morgan Thu, 04 Oct 2007 17:32:56 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-1761 phillip, your argument does not make sense. are you proposing that humans have altered the arctic winds and sea currents? the earth's atmosphere is well mixed. this means co2 levels are pretty consistent across the globe. they don't build up in the north due to population. the greenhouse effect is a global phenomenon. it's not and cannot be hemispherically specific. now a minor wobble on the earth's axis or alteration in angle to the sun (malinkovich cycles etc) could certainly achieve the results being observed, but clearly, that is not anthropogenic. phillip, your argument does not make sense. are you proposing that humans have altered the arctic winds and sea currents? the earth’s atmosphere is well mixed. this means co2 levels are pretty consistent across the globe. they don’t build up in the north due to population. the greenhouse effect is a global phenomenon. it’s not and cannot be hemispherically specific. now a minor wobble on the earth’s axis or alteration in angle to the sun (malinkovich cycles etc) could certainly achieve the results being observed, but clearly, that is not anthropogenic.

]]> By: Evan Jones http://wattsupwiththat.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-1760 Evan Jones Thu, 04 Oct 2007 16:11:49 +0000 http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2007/10/03/nh-sea-ice-loss-its-the-wind-says-nasa/#comment-1760 I am assuming the above graph measures global sea ice coverage since 1950 in millions of sq. mi. from norm. If so, I agree it doesn't seem like all that much of a global emergency. I am assuming the above graph measures global sea ice coverage since 1950 in millions of sq. mi. from norm.

If so, I agree it doesn’t seem like all that much of a global emergency.

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