CO2, Soot, Modeling and Climate Sensitivity

15 07 2009

Warming Caused by Soot, Not CO2

From the Resilient Earth

Submitted by Doug L. Hoffman on Wed, 07/15/2009 – 13:19

A new paper in Science reports that a careful study of satellite data show the assumed cooling effect of aerosols in the atmosphere to be significantly less than previously estimated. Unfortunately, the assume greater cooling has been used in climate models for years. In such models, the global-mean warming is determined by the balance of the radiative forcings—warming by greenhouse gases balanced against cooling by aerosols. Since a greater cooling effect has been used in climate models, the result has been to credit CO2 with a larger warming effect than it really has.

This question is of great importance to climate modelers because they have to be able to simulate the effect of GHG warming in order to accurately predict future climate change. The amount of temperature increase set into a climate model for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 is called the model’s sensitivity. As Dr. David Evans explained in a recent paper: “Yes, every emitted molecule of carbon dioxide (CO2) causes some warming—but the crucial question is how much warming do the CO2 emissions cause? If atmospheric CO2 levels doubled, would the temperature rise by 0.1°, 1.0°, or by 10.0° C?”


Temperature sensitivity scenarios from IPCC AR4.

The absorption frequencies of CO2 are already saturated, meaning that the atmosphere already captures close to 100% of the radiation at those frequencies. Read the rest of this entry »



Comments : 19 Comments »

Categories : Carbon dioxide, modeling

Spy Sat Images of Arctic ice declassified

15 07 2009

From the “pictures actually do matter” department…NSIDC’s Mark Serreze is thrilled to get them

download

Recently declassified high-resolution satellite photos, such as this one from the Canadian Fram Strait, could provide scientists with more detailed information about Arctic sea ice melting.

from Science News

Hundreds of high-resolution satellite photos of the Arctic sea ice taken during the past 10 years should be immediately declassified and released to the scientific research community, the National Research Council reported on July 15. Shortly after, the United States Geological Survey made about a thousand of the images available to the public through the Global Fiducials Library.

“Most people from the scientific community are not aware that these images have been collected,” says Stephanie Pfirman, chair of the NRC committee that wrote the report. “They’ll be very excited to see these results.”

The photos could help scientists study the rapid changes taking place in the Arctic, the committee members say. Current research efforts that might benefit include studies of polar bear habitats, of the movement of ice floes and of the formation and evolution of melt ponds — bodies of water that form on ice sheets and accelerate their melting. Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 9 Comments »

Categories : Arctic, sea ice

GISS: World’s airports continue to run warmer than ROW

15 07 2009

Guest post by John Goetz

AIRLNRAD1As noted in the previous post, GISS has released their monthly global temperature summary for June, 2009. This month’s whopping anomaly of 0.63C is once again much higher than that of RSS, UAH, and even NOAA, which is the source of the GISS temperature data. Not only is the anomaly higher than the other metrics, but it is trending in the opposite direction.

Temperature data from 1079 stations worldwide contributed to the analysis, 134 of them being located in the 50 US states. Data from essentially the same few stations have been used for the past twenty-four months. Many, many hundreds of stations that have historically been included in the record and still collect data today continue to be ignored by GISS in global temperature calculations.

Once again, the bulk of temperatures comprising the present-day worldwide GISS average come from airports – in this case 554 airports, according to the NOAA metadata from the V2 station inventory. In the US, the ratio of airports to total stations continues to run very high, with 121 out of the 134 reporting stations being located at airports.

Why worry about airports? Aside from recent posts on this site documenting problems with airport ASOS equipment in the US, WUWT has also documented a number of equipment siting problems, notably the typical close proximity of the equipment to a tarmac heat sink. Airports can introduce a mini-UHI effect where one would otherwise not be found.

The NOAA metadata is not entirely accurate, and several stations located at airports are not noted as such. Some examples include Londrina and Brasilia in Brazil, Ely / Yelland in Nevada, and Broome in Austrailia. Those stations were easy to find because they had “airport” (or some variant) in the station name. A check of coordinates using Google Earth confirmed the airport locations.

Let’s examine the metadata a little further, shall we? Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 125 Comments »

Categories : UHI, climate data, weather_stations

GISS for June – way out there

14 07 2009

way-out-west

NASA GISS has released their global temperature anomaly data for June 2009 and it is quite the surprise.

In both the UAH and RSS satellite data sets, global temperature anomaly went down in June. GISS went up, and is now the largest June anomaly since 1998, when we had the super El Nino.

Data source:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

Here are the June global temperature anomaly comparisons:

GISS .63C

RSS .075

UAH .001

The divergence between the satellite derived global temperature anomalies of UAH and RSS and the GISS land-ocean anomaly is the largest in recent memory.

But that isn’t the only oddity. Over on Lucia’s blog, the first commenter out of the gate, “Nylo” noticed something odd: Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 197 Comments »

Categories : climate data

“There appears to be something fundamentally wrong with the way temperature and carbon are linked in climate models.”

14 07 2009

Global warming: Our best guess is likely wrong

Published: Tuesday, July 14, 2009 – 11:45 in Earth & Climate
A new study suggests scientists' best predictions about global warming might be incorrect.

Rice University/Photos.com

No one knows exactly how much Earth’s climate will warm due to carbon emissions, but a new study this week suggests scientists’ best predictions about global warming might be incorrect. The study, which appears in Nature Geoscience, found that climate models explain only about half of the heating that occurred during a well-documented period of rapid global warming in Earth’s ancient past. The study, which was published online today, contains an analysis of published records from a period of rapid climatic warming about 55 million years ago known as the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum, or PETM.

“In a nutshell, theoretical models cannot explain what we observe in the geological record,” said oceanographer Gerald Dickens, a co-author of the study and professor of Earth science at Rice University. “There appears to be something fundamentally wrong with the way temperature and carbon are linked in climate models.” Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 197 Comments »

Categories : Carbon dioxide, climate_change, modeling

Real Climate gives reason to cheer…

14 07 2009
Though, a couple of the cheerleaders don’t look all that happy.

Left to Right: Dr. Gavin Schmidt (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center), Dr. Paul Knappenberger (President of the Adler Planetarium and Astronomy Museum), Dr. Wally Broecker (Columbia University), and Dr. Ray Pierrehumbert (University of Chicago) pose for a photo after the first of the Global Climate Change forum. Forum I was held at the Adler Planetarium.

From Roger Pielke Jr.’s blog.

Two Decades of No Warming, Consistent With . . .

Over at Real Climate they are busy giving climate skeptics reason to cheer:

We hypothesize that the established pre-1998 trend is the true forced warming signal, and that the climate system effectively overshot this signal in response to the 1997/98 El Niño. This overshoot is in the process of radiatively dissipating, and the climate will return to its earlier defined, greenhouse gas-forced warming signal. If this hypothesis is correct, the era of consistent record-breaking global mean temperatures will not resume until roughly 2020.

Imagine, twenty-two or more years (1998 to ~2020) of no new global temperature record. What would that do to the debate?

Real Climate does say something very smart in the piece (emphasis added): Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 279 Comments »

Categories : climate_change

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation – not quite cool yet.

14 07 2009

atl_sst

From ICECAP

AMO, The Key Global Climate Indicator By Matt Vooro

The AMO is an ongoing series of long-duration changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean, with cool and warm phases that may last for 20-40 years at a time and a difference of about 1F between extremes. These changes are natural and have been occurring for at least the last 1,000 years. [per NOAA].

The AMO index is calculated at NOAAPSD by using the Kaplan SST data set [5x5], determining the area weighted average over the North Atlantic over 0-70N and then detrending this data. The average AMO index or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index went negative or cool in January 2009 The average for the first 5 months this year is about [-0.06] . It has been cooling since 2003. In the past, the very cold seasons of North America and especially the East coast happened when the annual average AMO went cool [ as low as -0.405] in the 1970’s. Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 47 Comments »

Categories : climate_change, oceans

Palin takes a stand in WaPo – blasts cap and trade

13 07 2009

from The Washington Post

The ‘Cap And Tax’ Dead End

By Sarah Palin
Tuesday, July 14, 2009

There is no shortage of threats to our economy. America’s unemployment rate recently hit its highest mark in more than 25 years and is expected to continue climbing. Worries are widespread that even when the economy finally rebounds, the recovery won’t bring jobs. Our nation’s debt is unsustainable, and the federal government’s reach into the private sector is unprecedented.

Unfortunately, many in the national media would rather focus on the personality-driven political gossip of the day than on the gravity of these challenges. So, at risk of disappointing the chattering class, let me make clear what is foremost on my mind and where my focus will be:

I am deeply concerned about President Obama’s cap-and-trade energy plan, and I believe it is an enormous threat to our economy. It would undermine our recovery over the short term and would inflict permanent damage. Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 244 Comments »

Categories : politics

Sea Surface Temperatures since 1996 – the movie

13 07 2009

Animations of Weekly SST Anomaly Maps from January 3, 1996 to July 1, 2009

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale

The following four animations of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies were created using the mapping feature (Full Version) of the NOAA NOMADS system for the weekly OI.v2 SST data:
http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?ctlfile=oiv2.ctl&varlist=on&new_window=on&ptype=map&dir=

The “Contour interval for var1” was set at 0.2 deg C to bring out the lower-intensity temperature anomalies. “white” was set at “0” so that blues represented negative anomalies and reds represented positive anomalies. All four videos last for approximately 2 1/2 minutes.

Please click on the videos to watch them in a larger size at YouTube. There they can be expanded to full screen and set to high definition.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

The North Atlantic has the highest SST anomaly linear trend of all of the ocean subsets. Refer to my post Putting The Short-Term Trend Of North Atlantic SST Anomalies Into Perspective. And of the three major ocean subsets, the Atlantic Ocean has the highest OHC linear trend. This is illustrated in my post Levitus et al (2009) Ocean Heat Content – Comparison of The Ocean Basin Data. Does the Atlantic SST Anomaly Animation help show the reasons?

In addition to the surges of heat in the North and South Atlantic during El Nino events, there are a number of paths that warm SST anomalies enter the South Atlantic during ENSO neutral and La Nina periods. Occasionally, the Benguela Current carries these warm water anomalies north along the Southwest Coast of Africa, where they are then carried west by the Atlantic Equatorial Currents. The warm anomalies either return to the South Atlantic, following the currents of the South Atlantic gyre, or they enter the North Atlantic. Once in the North Atlantic, they travel north, and appear to do that quickly. These additions of elevated SST anomalies during La Nina and ENSO-neutral periods also help explain why There Are Also El Nino-Induced Step Changes In The North Atlantic.


Atlantic Ocean SST Anomaly Animation 1996 to 2009

INDIAN OCEAN Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 46 Comments »

Categories : oceans

NYC fails to reach 85°F in June – first time since 1916

13 07 2009

NYC_temperatures-ABC-news

Click image for ABC News video report.

Here are the details from the NYC National Weather Service Office: Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 67 Comments »

Categories : weather

50 Grand tab for AB32 Global Warming Solutions Act – Nevada looking better and better.

13 07 2009

home_business_advantage

For those that don’t operate a business in California like I do, I was surprised today to learn that Sacramento State College of Business Administration and Center for Small Business have complete a study of the AB32 Greenhouse gas law, and its impact on California small businesses.

The law requires that by 2020 the state’s greenhouse gas emissions be reduced to 1990 levels, a roughly 25% reduction under business as usual estimates. The California Air Resources Board, under the California Environmental Protection Agency, is to prepare plans to achieve the objectives stated in the Act.

Will I keep my business in California with a tab like that? Probably not. It would be economic suicide for me. – Anthony

California Small Businesses Face $50,000 Cost from State Implementation of AB 32

from PR-inside.com

A new study released today found that small businesses in California will pay an additional $49,691 as a result of the California Air Resources Board’s implementation of AB 32. Citing severe economic impacts, a coalition of small business organizations called today for the suspension of the regulatory proceedings to implement California’s greenhouse gas program until the report’s findings are analyzed
and mitigation measures are added to the state plan. Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 117 Comments »

Categories : Carbon dioxide, politics

Record cold in Portland Maine in July

13 07 2009

Average Temperature for Portland, Maine

More from the “weather is not climate department”. Emphasis below mine. And it is having an effect not only on crops but tourism in the Northeast US.  – Anthony

Statement as of 4:00 PM EDT on July 9, 2009
record event report … corrected
National Weather Service Gray ME
400 PM EDT Thursday Jul 09 2009

… More record cold weather for Portland Maine…

The temperature at the Portland jetport only reached 58 degrees
yesterday. This set a record for the coldest high temperature on
July 7th. The old record was 59 degrees set in 1961. To put this in
another perspective… the normal low temperature for July 7th is 58
degrees.

The low temperature on Wednesday was 55 degrees. This produced a
range of only 3 degrees between the high and low temperatures which
is a record for the smallest daily range in temperatures on July
7th. The old record was a 4 degree spread set in 1963 and 1995.

The 3 degree daily temperature range yesterday also tied the record
for the smallest daily temperature range for any day in July. The
record was established on July 16th, 1961 and occurred five more
times before this year.
Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 130 Comments »

Categories : weather

NOAA: June near average in the USA

13 07 2009

Meanwhile the world temperature anomaly as measured by satellite is near zero – Anthony

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2009/jun/Last1mTDeptUS.png

NOAA: U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Near-Average for June

July 10, 2009

The June 2009 temperature and precipitation for the contiguous United States were near the long-term average, based on records going back to 1895, according to an analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.

The average June 2009 temperature of 69.5 degrees F was 0.2 degree F above the 20th Century average.  Precipitation across the contiguous United States in June 2009 averaged 2.90 inches, which is 0.01 inch above the long-term value.

U.S. Temperature Highlights Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 59 Comments »

Categories : climate data

Bill Gates to Control Hurricanes: DOH!

12 07 2009

From the “would you, could you, with a boat department”. Bill goes macro. The Simpsons are cited by patent watcher.

Patent watcher “theodp,” who tipped us off to the filings, says he was reminded of “The Simpsons” as he read through them. “The richest man in the world hatches a plan to alter weather and ecology in return for insurance premiums and fees from governments and individuals,” he writes. “It’s got kind of a Mr. Burns feel to it, no?”

I guess Bill has been talking to the G-8 people and their temperature control ideas. Note to Bill: nature will squish you and your ideas like a bug. In the meantime with ACE values being low according to COAPS Ryan Maue and Steve McIntyre showing cooler temperatures on the SST map for Gulf Coast hurricane development areas, it looks like they may have to wait a year or two to try out their ideas. The idea? Basically, ship mounted pumps to circulate cooler water from below the thermocline to the surface by forcing surface water downward first. Good luck with that. – Anthony

Spoof photo from the New York Post

One force of nature vs. another: Bill Gates tries to stop hurricanes

By Todd Bishop on Techflash

A diagram from one of the newly disclosed Gates and Myhrvold patent filings, depicting a deployment of hurricane-supression vessels in the Gulf of Mexico.

Recent patent filings have shown Bill Gates and his friends exploring subjects as diverse as electromagnetic engines and beer kegs. Now they’re thinking even bigger — trying to stop hurricanes.

Microsoft’s chairman is among the inventors listed on a new batch of patent applications that propose using large fleets of vessels to suppress hurricanes through various methods of mixing warm water from the surface of the ocean with colder water at greater depths. The idea is to decrease the surface temperature, reducing or eliminating the heat-driven condensation that fuels the giant storms. Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 216 Comments »

Categories : hurricanes, ridiculae

Ken Tapping: Still no sign of the next cycle

12 07 2009

10.7 flux monitoring station operated by the National Research Council Canada and the Canadian Space Agency

10.7 solar flux monitoring station operated by the National Research Council Canada and the Canadian Space Agency

More on the NRC 10.7 observatory here

JohnA writes in:

Just in case you wondered whether the recent large sunspot indicated an upswing in radio flux from the Sun: I went and asked Ken Tapping.

The answer: http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/2009/07/10/ken-tapping-still-no-sign-of-the-next-cycle/

This could be the first “radio quiet” solar cycle

Previously on this blog, I’d mentioned my skepticism that one decent sunspot marked the end of the hiatus in the solar cycle we’ve seen for nearly two years. It might be my nature, but everybody has been wrong before.

As part of my public duty to actually ask real scientists monitoring the Sun, I wrote to Dr Ken Tapping of Canada’s National Research Council at the Herzberg Institute of Astrophysics in British Columbia: Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 128 Comments »

Categories : Science, solar

Quote of the week #14

12 07 2009

qotw_cropped

“Sometimes, we hear that global warming causes cooling. In this case, global warming causes global averageness. In all three cases, it is bad news.”

- Luboš Motl in

UAH global temperature anomaly – hitting the slopes


Comments : 41 Comments »

Categories : Quote of the Week

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